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Meeting and should any should you have any directors announcements. To be part of the file submitted to the clerk and Public Comment on each item will be taken and when your item is called on the west side along the curtains and not necessary to provide petroleum fill out a public speaker card and in the following ways email the Budget Appropriations Committee clerk. At sfgov. Org and if i submit email forward to the supervisors and part of the official file and send your written comments by u. S. Postal service San Francisco, california and thank you, maam that concludes my announcements. With that, please call item number 1. Our franciscos fiveyear financial plan; and requesting the controller and the mayors budget director to report. Madam chair. And today, we have um, both Controllers Office carol here and i know that um, and anna in the Mayors Office is here to answer questions and the floor is yours. Great. Thank you budget chair chang were going to present together this is an update to the report we published the first duration was in december this is update to the projections we really had in december you remember that report shows the next 5 years an unprecedented deficit the first two years 800 million that is the budget we need to balance by june 1st were going to talk about a few updates and so the report is and the update again those numbers represent willie brown what we are status quo if we didnt make any policy choices, this is the budget gap well be looking at. So um, this shows a summary of change in some of of the biggest categories of revenue and expenditures from that um, december report. The bottom line changed is minimal talking about billions of dollars of general fund and altogether 9 for 10 million from prior projections. For why was there a change of the past modified revenues from the Controllers Office and there are some higher costs in the expenditures. And with that, im going to turn it over to carl to talk about the revenue functions. Property taxes this is throughout the for another period due to updates around instructions that results in the board of appeals rescues that is decreased the amount of Assets Available and business tax we look at cash um, coming in and cash was higher in the current year that was and so typically increase um, the forecast in all the out years. Um, that was largely for refunds and litigations. So no change. Um, transfer tax we forecasted about the same level as the prior report. Um, the update didnt have any exemptions for the march 24th proposition c that was passed by the voters and that is due to the time would take to convert and dont think that will rap has in that the planned period and the executive tax similar to the cash came in higher than we exposed partially by to additional claims and litigations. Moving forward fema revenue we have an additional 21. 8 million for the winter storm. Disasters and winter of 2023 at covid reimbursements were remaining the same and Public Health the department of Public Health forecasts additional improvements um, in operating revenue as well as one time improvements from prior year settles and the additionally the report assumed the fund balance reported at the six months report the additional 34. 4 million. Okay. Then on expenditure the benefits cost is based health and retirement no changes for the employee wage rate but the information from the retirement system those costs are a little bit higher than than previously assumes every march we see how the caseloads are trending any information from the state the cost went up a bit i ask and up as well as other entitlements programs and costs for the operating subsidy programs or resulted in more costs on the expenditure side and im going to turn it over to from carol. So the report um, said in changes in the reserve deposits were adjusted and thats not shown here otherwise this table is similar to every other table in our report. Then, of course, as the projection uncertainties. So the forecast is in negotiations ongoing right now. The forecast assumes cpi of 2. 65 percent it is um, the the mous have different worsens the deficit and the second unservants is local employment numbers in marches edd restated the historic numbers due to the changes around and before though we know technically off looks like employment employees were finding employment back for the tech segment they were get reemployment but with the restatement of numbers showing overall lose in employment. The third retirement in contribution rate currently our were assuming 7. 2 percent but investments come in for below then retirement contributions will increase that for state budget were not assuming any changes. Um, however, proposals at the state lovely would probably result in um, almost 40 a little bit more 40 million reductions to that is out there. And there also potential fema reimbursements and then, of course, any policy decisions that have a fiscal impact could be introduced to the deficit. So just to wrap up um, though the bottom line is the official report results in a slight improvement for the two year deficit we assumed or draungs to the slide the Financial Risks with very large and all things actively decided in the next two weeks we are still in labor negotiations that agreement has not been ratified and not in a position to talk about that today. But like carol said any wage agreements above other than 2. 5 percent and other risks that we are tracking with that, were available to answer questions. Sorry i thought was it 2 point for the labor negotiations i thought i 450erd maybe i heard it wrong youre saying . 2. 5 with the increase for cpi or projections of labor negotiations . Yeah. So um, every year we have contractors we need to build in some assumption not assuming and flat for across many years we assume the wage rates will increase by cpi and that was around 2. 56 in many range anything over the next two to three years. And 2. 5 and three percent any agreement above that any wage 0 above that is an additional costs. Then for your retirement contributions you mentioned right now youre projecting at 7. 2 percent are we showing anything different from the retirement board could be what is is projected change . Yeah. We get monthly updates about year to date returns and trending above 7. 2 percent but fluctuate quite a bit from month to month and do the right thing until we get to the end of the year what the final results will be. I know you said. Based on market performances. And the portfolio but the low and high. At the beginning of the year were trind negative below zero percent i dont know were near the 7 percent. I i dont recall im happy to share it with you um, the retirement is published monthly and valuable on the website as well. Then um, like carol was trying to say if you find that tell me. We publish that returns through february 24th were 5. 7 percent and fluctuate month to month. I this were talking about potential e rap performed less than by 40 million. Thats the assumption . Weve not build that in this forecast. In the governors proposed budget will take legislative action our result is a loss of 40 million and were doing doing everything we can at it the state level to protect that. Yeah this coming fiscal year and yeah, and then if i think so the other question talking about and last year was at 18 million. What is our the number lastly number were hearing 40 i think you mentioned one point like meaning additional two multiple voices . Yeah go i dont have the law numbers esprit park my fingertips last year the rates we negotiated were the highest were seen in many, many years um, we got those projections the negotiations and theyre wrapping up with the Healthcare Providers they provided the negotiations how theyre going and the Health Segment at large and will be finalized brought to this board if i building in june. Um, but have to build this go rbo our budget. How much will you build in . I have it in the report yeah. I dont have the dollars amount but mr. Chair, i, put that in context we have three to four percent a year. At the end last year was 18 million this is rather high like when they came in above im sorry 18 million above our projections. Yeah. So that sounds right. And they did hey this could be coming in at best another increase of 18 to 20 million. Um, so okay. Um, i think i have a little bit of the math. Going here for us. I dont have any other questions at the moment. Um, the governors budget will be announced revised budget may 11th. Okay. I dont see any names on the roster i think after all it were were not just drilling down the numbers we appreciate your work no surprise but to be honestly honest the risk including labor negotiations and all that we fema reimbursements having the conversation in december and we knew those with factors. Um, i think the last one i have is really the downward revision like the local employment numbers um, that we know that um, again, our gross receipts with payroll taxes is part of this calculation and this result when it comes to layoff results in permanent loss, you know, not a shortterm loss but someone is working remote um, we projected i think 2 to three years ago we are surprised were gains in the industries i should say but thinking this is very likely this is a loss but i want to confirm i think that is what the Controllers Office is saying as we saw some gains early during the pandemic now we see layoff notices even an immediate rehire it is result of is also of employment. Right thats; correct we had thought that that was an immediate rehire and not in the box but the restatement we realized was a loss multiple voices . What is the percent . Oh, i have to get back to on that i dont have that off the top of my head. I have a couple of questions about the revenue the first is you talked about the fema reimbursements we assumed as is same level as december um, has theyve been any traction in our collaboration with other um, municipalities in the state and yeah. Yeah. I think were working with other municipalities and um, trying to do what we can um, to make sure we are able to be reinforced and forecasting 23 million and have 80 million in and the work is being done. My other question about the property taxes investments and how the staff is doing with wealthy weighing through the appeals do we have a sense of timing a backlog as they come in or any of that projects . Projections and i dont have any but in terms of the level of appeals sort of highs. Yeah. Yes quite a backlog the board has to go through in 2021 and 2022 all the prior year appeals it worries me. unintelligible . Capture. Ill say that member mandelman a great question and talking about with the board of appeals about, you know, what projections are we making are tree appropriately staffed how do we manage this . It is key to the citys revenues it is what were looking at and. Okay. That worries my question thank you, mr. Chair and lets go to Public Comment on this item. Thank you, madam chair. Members of the public who wish to speak line up to speak along the windows and come forward to the lectern madam chair no speakers. Seeing none, Public Comment is closed. gavel and colleagues, i would like to make a motion to file the hearing as heard and lets invite member walton for roll call. On this be heard and filed protect and seconded by member walton member mandelman, aye. Member walton, aye. Member peskin absent. Member chan. 4 is and the motion carries. And do we have any other business for today mr. Clerk. Madam chair that concludes our business. The meeting is adjourned. 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This is a apa heritage month kickoff conferences we know we are all here from mayor london breed in a few short minutes but thank you to her for not only for business and economic recovery but bringing our thank you, london breed. clapping. that is about making idea happen we really appreciate this so but today, we are talking about our apa heritage month this is coming up next wednesday force us to

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