January 8, 2021 11:57 PM
Welcome to the NFL Playoffs! Today Wild Card Weekend begins with a triple-header of Saturday games. Historically, the postseason has been a great time to go to contrarian and back unpopular dogs. Why? Because each game is a standalone primetime game attracting massive betting action. Basically, each game is like a Monday Night Football game in terms of betting handle. The market is flooded with public action, which provides heavier than usual public bias to bet against. And the public will almost always back the favorites, which creates buy-low value play opportunities to back dogs.
Over the past three seasons, NFL postseason dogs are 21-12 ATS (64%), with Wild Card dogs a blistering 11-1 ATS (92%). We've also seen unders crush it over the past three seasons, going 19-14 (57.6%), including 10-2 (83%) on Wild Card Weekend. This rise in dogs and unders has coincided with the expansion of legalized betting, which has brought in millions more public bettors to the market.