Each of the parties. But 1st, that would probably have to parts with dia on sense of righteousness does the historical moment or the nature of this conflict allow for this or to discuss that. Im now joined by Geoffrey Roberts emeritus professor of history of the University College park. Professor roberts is always a great pleasure, personal, a pleasure to talk to you. But on top of that, im part and that some academic exchanges between western and russian scores continue as this crisis continues to escalate. Where do you think we are in uh in this uh, tobacco of what stage . Uh the conflict has taken i think um my my, my car and faded over in that were in a very dangerous not much. Yeah. And the danger roy, this is the same thing. You said last time, we talked the way its actually afford districts. God bless you have more time just yes, because the closer but the ukraine comes to the fate of the most desperate potentially reckless the west is again about powerful um, extreme. His voice is uh, becoming so is quite possible that that deal. Then we may see some extreme actions to some post drop ukraines defense. And then obviously that will be a dying drove escalation. Arising out those actions. What do you to see as potentially extreme actions from the side of the west . Because its clear that the ukraine is becoming more liberal in its open use of terrace tactics. But what about the west . Well, i mean though, the token anomaly is the introduction of western troops in some phone. That issue seems to be on the agenda again. Theres also talk about not know slice ons. Yeah. Old kind of stuff is being be discussed at the beginning of the war and which a westerly does the refuse to contemplate of that that time. But that back on the agenda and you know, the but they seem to be, i mean more and we talk about seriously and, and thatd be more multiple patch of sex. Now i dont, i dont think the intention of those kind of actions troops on the boots on the ground or some kind of um, our intervention it one bates us a lot precipitated why it was rushed to that wont be the, the intention of goals that will be the danger that they know, because obviously russia, i dont think, well what will allow those that those actions you either if, if, if theyre west of troops on the ground, wherever you crying that will be attacked, but by russia and the same goes for wisdom. Ethels involvement now uh, Something Like this was contemplated 2 years ago, but as you say, it says to have more precious power. Im all home. I mean, does it have more purchased power and long uh, people at large and why would that be the case . Because i mean, its pretty clear that whatever west and think there is a strategy, a sort of the russian army 2 years ago. The presuppositions were defeated, the to say the least way. It certainly doesnt have in the purchasing Public Opinion in the last year old, if the older Public Opinion died. So we have, you know, assistant just in a popular opinion is moving in the direction a away from one, the direction of peace in simple, some kind of compromise based on what the nights. So particular western countries to do, do something rack those lines just you, its ok to get more involved, threatening called, still being a know, most kind of like out the us, the popular opposition, black dress, certainly a restraining factor. So how strong are these voices in favor . Of direct tensional its, its difficult to say, i mean did that, thats beside the law of them at the moment. I mean, there are, there are counseling their accounts, voices, and i, you know, i think so, i think it was, we might assist a whole ton of this conflict from the point of view of the west proxy why russia has been a kind of a persistent escalation one escalation off to the other, so theyve done it so often its almost become the actual so i think i, i, ill be, ill be shocked but wont be surprised if i types of escalators that do you take this escalation as i calculated tactic. In other words, when people raise a bit and see it, do they actually understand . Are they conscious of what theyre doing and you know, they possible a reply for me i, i think is it, its partly a calculated tactic. I think its also a very emotionally bice tactics because theyve taught themselves into a position. But i basically sums that are right, retro, it, i really believe that if they lose, do you cry new for us, your wins and the ukraine is going to be the end of the western world as we know. And, you know, eventually theyd be to someone that wont know it once. No, it wont happen. And thats important that we dont to be done actually poly into that that, that disco. So no, no, do you train, you train . What would be a huge blow tonight . So as the west to west and prestige, it would be critical be cried b o has of prices rise . Not but no i, i think the west of worlds we know at night. So were blessed in palace of i think when we might, unless the wall goes on and on us and russia kind of tried saving multi p to frank rush, it comes to occupy the how the price and the oil consideration of. Yeah. In that kind of extreme situation. Yeah, that, that then possibly we are looking at the a much more a laptop clip pick out. Lets discuss something that you and a number of other western schoolers proposed recent found that is a compromise to this war. In fact, you suggested in one of your recent articles that budget reports and could stop this war by negotiating a peace deal that includes ukraines membership of mater. Why do you believe that this proposal, which is the underlying premise for, for this conflict, has any complying power not only in moscow, but 1st and foremost in keys and in washington, the if the is going to be negotiated into the peace settlement, then that you got this going to be some kind of western security, a guarantee of whats left of the ukraine started off to the wall, right . Thats the 1st point. Its got that the 2nd part is that night. So on the west of the politically it retire. Theres hardly a what funny, very, very difficult to difficult to back away from accepting you, trying in tonight to and it was even, even under conditions dictated by russia. Thats the 2nd. And the 3rd thing um, it is strategically having ukraine in they say what have advantages from the west and by the beautiful, it would mean that you have your trade in lights. I was left of it west, a new crime, presumably what, what, what, what constitutes some kind of office on, with russia. Ok. This beth as own would be a to militarize zone. Me know when they took by say theres no new to weapons, all kind of restrictions, but nevertheless, youd have an independence pro western nathan member viewpoint. Actually the public folks that are real kinds of good reasons for so yeah, the west United States and i talked to it except such a deal. Now it kept mentioning this phrase, ukraine or whats left of it. And i think thats the, you know, the, the crux of the problem and a number of russian analysts indirectly driven there because they claim that the, whats, what is now being decided on the battlefield is where the boundary between russian and whats the security parameter will lie whether its formal or informal, and clearly a mosque was interested in pushing it further into ukraine. But im not sure if the wants to push it as far as, lets say, western ukraine of it. Its very hostile and add to russian population. Now, based on history based on the current sentiments where addressing done boundary equip Live Organically for there is such a term as organic boundary between russia in the west. I think as of now the natural boundary would be um, acceptance by you cried in the west of russia, the cooperation of crime it until the before before additional provinces. And that in any way, thats the only absolutely for cause and fost rush. Why is that this guy rush, those, those territories apart . Also part of a problem thats all right in the house you choose your. Yeah. So thats that, that, that, that, thats, thats, thats the minimum. How far you go beyond that. Yeah, it depends on, on the, on the war and, okay, some people argue that, that maybe you should go as far as hawk of as far as a desa problem with that is yes, that may will, in a way that may, will be a natural cause historical cultural political badly, but it will be enormously costly for russia to actually occupied stock of down to the end, the end of the desa. Okay, but the bottom line is i, i dont see russia expanding any further into your cry then under the need for that you also suggested that in the criminal record, to contemplate such a concession ukraine. And its western beckers would have to give the quote, cost iron commitments to ukraines permanent demilitarization. Ill beat within the framework of a nato membership. But 1st of all, i, im not sure of the russians believe in any degree of firmness, alpha, quote, unquote, the western commitments. But on top of that, you know, demilitarized within the nature of framework, isnt it a bit like, i dont know, its a writer with wipers, but well behaving. Mice, i mean like, uh, even if and ukraine is the militarized and like its not the ukraine, that is a problem for russia. Its beta. What, what do i do there is of kind of press of this kind of green because recalls when um, east germany was united with west job name became a spell and you have the kind of 5 nights of the agreement was the friend at that point. The rush hour, so its units best restaurants, but its only the danger ensure but the pain was that there will be no nights or expansion in so we still have a nichols have light from nature nature. Then expand the trees. Jo, do a cause expanded, its a voltage state supposed to add another country. So for all precedents for the conditions on that one on, on the, on the, on lights, those a night nitrogen expansion. Yeah. Now i think there is also a more recent precedent that can support your case. The case of to our k, a number of fresh leaders, including pointers himself, said that having trick is a part of nature is not that bad for russian because it contains that culture, which is an actual competitor, original competitor for russia. And i can see that the logic being applied to your plan, but i struggled to understand why i would need to want uh, you know, drive aged, highly traumatized uh, very limply angry country or whatever left with as part of it, you know, to realize the rise of important point, the, you know, i think for the Russian Point of view, its not ukraines membership. The site doesnt match at all. I have a match out. It was, it was a nighttime military build up and then use the ukraine as a tool, of course. Absolutely. So if youre trying to watch lift, it becomes part of a night of the under different conditions. Then its not such a its not such a frightening development. And we asked a question about, you know, why should this issue a process of looking at the trust cost both, why see this is trust issues on both sides. And the only way to, to work through the issue is to after might make, make agreements and see what happens and try to make those agreements they go through, you know, as the rest of the like to say, yeah, you know, the trust but very far. But i ask you about the slightly different aspect of it. Why would need to one, i mean, i understand native logic of having ukraine as you know, sort of send me affiliated as member of its alliance and using it as a sort of battering ram against pressure. But if they actually have to take responsibility for your cranes, you know, angry and time since for rebuilding it for even providing it with some infrastructure, why would they need and because theyre losing all the benefits of their policy. Im assuming all the cost high. I, i think for political reasons, i mean that thats what im up if they thought, yeah, my eyes. Well, why do i could come forward with this suggestion that you, craig could become a member of night to under certain conditions that could be part of the day. I was trying to think of a lie to police equally given the what the west, the way out politically to back off from for the forever war with russia for of abrupt proxy about that. But that was my kind of kind of reasoning. So i think, yeah, yeah, it would pay them no most kind of challenges and almost from all kinds of discussion, im sure that we play the voices that wed like to assign a we shouldnt, shouldnt do this. But i think for political reasons, nights i would find it very different, very difficult to actually to have his back on your crime completely and, and, and refused to, to allow in instant inter membership. Yeah. Quote, professor over. So i hope youre right on that. But even though im, you know, to some extent its uh, you know, facing the consequences of, of your own polio. Youre lying, its no, im not making a prediction error or prophecy. Im not sure whats gonna happen if i gets, im likely. Well i, i know whats gonna happen right now because we are going to take a very short break, but we will be back in just a few moments extension the the, [000 00 00;00] the extra ways the parts best jeffrey have offers emeritus professor of history at University College park now, professor roberts, before the break, we talked about the russian rationale and they does logic. Lets talk about the brain right now. And i think thats a very interesting case study because its hard to find another country besides a few grand. Thats what so eagerly assumed the role of a client states without the goal shading any developmental security guarantees for itself. And i mean, even israel, for example, and other clients they is very showed about um, you know, ensuring its own base. But the frame sort of threw himself into the western embrace completely without the, you know, asking actually from watch how do you understand the calculus of kids here . Yeah, i did. It is, this is the most difficult off at 6 most difficult for me. I mean for you to once, that is why you crime shows because it did add on what still chooses to fight to for, to fight on. It obviously is to do with the power of ukrainian nations. I mean, did you motional power as well as the Political Part of you for in the district . Thatd be one thing. I think secondly, there was this cuz fife belief in the west, in west sensible. I mean, i mean west and power. So they diapers. Why the themselves that they could, they could, they could win this war in some, uh its in some form. Okay. And now having tried that actually effectively last last of all that just um they just playing on the and lighting for something, something some something to happen, something to, to turn up. But look, um yeah, i could probably screw my public depending on your opinion and youre trying to shift as well. Well, the opinion dice ive said is that theres a gradual shift towards the majority of the ukrainians leaving in the the air is currently occupied. But, but by you guys who want a compromise space, i think secondly, you know, you know, the d ukrainian and the political stop is normally 5. I yeah. That theyre out there. All kind of elements weve been established with all maybe on the fringes of it, who would be prepared to actually that the negotiate facing see piece and this is a basis is made the best solution for you right now im not, im just like giving a 9 to perspective, to will be in video decide to least just have a personal question that have ukrainian votes and your credit is a very interesting collective psyche to me because i think its has both very large entitlement and a very large material or to complex. You mentioned the, you know, the power of its national is meant to me is a little bit like me there who is there any to kill. Its on her own children because she didnt get some things. And historically, i think this a few, or it was channeled very conveniently on to russia. But once you clean becomes part of the west, arent you concerned that they so the of the target of its blames. Theyll shift what you describe is actually quite a typical phenomenon of small state nationalism. And i know the ukraine is not particularly small site, but its just the most i associate getting smaller. Okay, so why is this most tight associated with a, a big state and quite often, well, you know what you, what you described this sense of, um, its a combination of in type since we talked about and inferiority complex, very, very typical of the nationalism. Um, oh, although of a small size, so anyway that thats not the same. Thats not unusual, but many other space. Uh, sort of middle space like turkey is around, even poland. Well, pulling to a lesser extent that theyve been quite skilful in playing, you know, big powers against one another. And this is what i want to ask you about. Because i think leadership or the cultivation of belief is a very interesting subject because it takes time, it takes such a National Hardship to produce the kinds of lives who understand the dynamic, psychological, and developmental dynamics of that population. But also whereas we, enough to position the country within the original and global context to go to printers, benefits for, for that people. Yeah. But thats, thats what happened for you. Cried was thoughtful. So for uh, you know, for the 1st 25 years of independent crime, thats exactly the game that you cried like really yes, absolutely. On sale until 2014, when you get this definitive kind of split upon a few crane ops definitively for the west. And thats where the professor roberts, i think youre going to have some of the best conditions, post soviet flaps. They had some of the best economies. They had pretty wide industrial base. They have a, you know, good land. They have a lot of people. Uh, they have the good graces of the west. They also have the good, have the good, the braces of russian because russia was eager to keep them within the if not within the, within, its all been done within its economic uh, environments. And yeah, they seem to waste it all on the some, you know, stuff, something that, that, that, the, them, that those, id love corruption. I know so that they also kind of hide the provisions if the political divisions been di. What that meant was to make you cry and never transitioned out of the ninetys. The kind of child take politics of the ninetys continued all the way all the way for the and of course to go see that youve tried that. I never had a pension twice you come and fix. Some stability is the power all the site. You know, some old and control and some and some directors are very unfortunate of success. So concise, really . Right. But going back to the point where i think that once to will if was i whats the most of it . If you have whats left to your train becomes part of the west and sub for which is already above the west. And thats the kind of judge i see the crime. He is a, again, thats an on the west of that point. That, that, that going to have a very, very different view and feeding tools to west when they see what has happened to the conflicts that they have, the full this proxy will on, on be around the office on be off was and i started to shoot kind of trauma shoes done that, which is a huge loss of life. Im actually, i dont think theyre going to play rush from the russians like that. Theyre gonna blame the so called wisdom knowledge in order to be a self sufficient country. They have to accept that the, you know, for me, ones blame on, on you for me have twice blame on me. I mean, the sooner or later they will have to extend our own responsibility for that whole investigate destiny. And, you know, also develop some acu man and shrewdness in dealing with the nature of it. But do you see developing i, im, i maybe, maybe not, im not sure ill pull up to be a self sufficient country of any kind of life. Some of the western alliance. Yeah. But they oh, shoot for its really dependent cut. They need, they need temporary. At least i need to keep a desk or at least access to a desk or the probably know so the symbolic races they need to keep talk of as well. The 4 most go now is the quantity of whatever the ethic that we know that theyre not there yet. But the prospect of a Major Military defeat for or Ukrainian Ministry flats, which get a fraction, a russian taking of a desperate hawk. I was was ok with the rest of some of these new friends that actually might shop to mean to actually coming to their senses and to im doing a make them making the data right. I, i give it okay. Im just giving up on this more, right. Im making the necessary concessions a to the restaurant we are very, are very good. And i think historical argument, because historically russians have, i said, have had the foresight of how you should treat your enemies in order to create, you know, conditions for lasting piece. It was the case both with the french and the, you know, with a gentleman says, wow, i think thats something that the, i think thats another very important part to modify the, the kind of argument behind a time putting that, you know, that russia should make this a really huge concession of allowing ukraine or poppy trying to become become a member. And i to understand conditions is because i, i still russia want, has a wants to have been having an attitude for you, you prime then ukrainians as, as, as a, as a people. And if that attitude holds, fletcher wants to reconstruct his relations with your crime. You stay with you frightening people on a collaborative friend friendship. I re recreate some com, some a bunch of neighborhoods, the anything, any progress, anything. Got you though, like that then that, that, that then i need to, they need to give something to you, cried i symbolically. Yes, he is quite different. Say, i remember hear you say they need to give something to credit and like made a membership. And what im arguing for is that they have to consciously or recognize ukrainian dignity. And thats if the ukrainian state is to exist as a stage, not just as a song fragment of made it, but as a stain that has some potential for self sufficiency, then if it needs such an geographic, oh, by says, i have an impression that at least the majority of russian Public Opinion and political repeatedly pay. What would be on that page . Okay, that are a minority if the russian nationalist would once go thoughts of of that. Um, but i think thats where that, thats where the sentiment is. Michaels essential, thats one thing, strategy and politics. It is another und russia puts in the paper, russian, people really and how can i can say anything. We try to get a compromise the russians secure, but its not good that we came to that because its not just about to ukraine. I mean, for us are either in a rush, i kind of have a ukrainian sensibilities at the top of its had bigger. At the end of the day, were all talking about the palm of your opinions. If youre just structure, show you written about as you said, that is the last thing someone them discussed with, with require crating a system that would contain rather than incubate conflicts. And i think the russians did that best trying to negotiate some way out of the predicament. Was made or they werent successful. Washington said no. Is there anything possibly thats good. The 1st way to change is perspective. I thought i dont, i think the war. Yeah. The you, you, crane and the west, the fate in the war is it might affect your trying to. And that perspective on the basis of the ukraine could become part of nights, also conditions. But that would need to be an overarching framework of common European Security to act as a consignment with that. And is that for us . I thought a guarantee. Definitely, you know, for, for both sides. Yeah, i mean, you know, the russians actually not russian for the subways before the, i think actually been fine since the 19th to stretchy, to create collective therapy and cook security structures, including the soviet union into, including in russia. But ive always kind of like stumbled against the fundamental fact that in the west rosters be seen as a reliable in that. And when the apartment a for it and it is quite track of it is tighten, it may actually take this. Will this tragic war to watch . You arrive a situation where there can be some kind of sensible negotiation about kurt crisig comments, comments Security Studies where professor robinson this is going to be my last question for that to happen. What the west will have to part with is the idea of that. You know, it controls the events in the World Economics idea, logical, cultural, everything else. And there is an opinion in russia, thats what russians are fighting against here. It is not just the, you know, part of europe and secure destructor, thats sliding and goes 500 years of western dominance which is 1st and foremost based on the western military and dominance and the regions in both the soviet union in the 20th century. And i think russian more recently has managed to not necessarily arrival, but at least undermine if the west degrees to any sort of negotiations with russia. What does that effect, and we mean that its in the, over the world, the shutter is, i mean, like the, it will have to you right off i, i, thats a lot to me. So thats what youve got, what the point you just make. And it brings us back to the point youre beginning of the, the discussion. Why when you also we add those to the situation to take the moment. I think its, its dangerous. This gets even more most i just found a bunch of guessing both actors because in the west or at least a substantial since 6 of the west is not prepared to give up on that self image of it itself. On western new jermel. Its not always the self image, it says we understand, its the superiority. Its a constructive less got on you crying just being there any exist to ensure that thats all the if the, if the craigslist is the night to lose a new pipe, then youre going to lose them. And i shouldnt the that germany on the west place of the world. And thats why the advertising, the most extreme measures to a books that they get back up so, so thats when it comes down to it, you know, the fundamental obstacle that you have to any, the swell of thousands lined with russia, always booty, the what it might do it lies with, with the west and what is it actually capable of of trying to use fundamental welfare any septic, a septic . Its a different, a different set of relationships with the prime refresher and in europe as a whole movement. And i would add to that, that ultimately what the west as the fighting against is not the russian. Its fighting history and history. It has certain objective trends 10 that even, you know, the west can know its and again, but the, lets leave it for some other time. Its special, great talking to you again. Thank you. Thanks very much. Thank you for watching hope to hear again. It was a part of the the water is part of the, the is it the poly would post good. Isnt the deepest you of us and good in the word part, is it something deeper, more complex might be present there . Lets stop without collision. Lets go out of the us. Its already is arise to more than 2000 people on the policy and demonstrations as a Congress Speaks to gordon adult patrol destination of august semitism to silence distant past me. Oh, i leave it to ride on us to make good to impress misleading commons. By the way archie gets a rare access to the conflict written, cast me a region as locals cast ballots in indias general election. So this