The response that we will see from the west, it to the re election, the flat demand boots and do you think that the sentiments towards boots and in particular and russia will, will have a change for the best to as well. So i think coming yes, it will not change because they still have their agenda. They still, their agenda is to devise russia. You know, this is the agenda for many years already. And even today, when you read the european news ever, you did the thats news to german news and you had to make a big fuss out of fits. Thats like a you. Yeah. Enough. All the is a voting in germany and she put the name of for our deceased husband on it. And, and also they sets with a many embassies people waiting in line, hundreds of people. But now for rent at the end of the day that for instance, in the, in the netherlands, there was still 400. 00 people waiting to be voting and what, what are these people then they are russian People Living there. We still want to vote, but they end up the opposite, you know, so its that make very terrible things out of it. And maybe with the change of governments in your but i dont see it happening very soon because you know, the governments are not very democratic anymore. So, but i say they have their agenda. They want russia well to lose, do divide russia of the many times we had company as we continue to bring to you all special coverage of this historic collection and always bringing you the best b as, as well way in data and data. And we will be back in just about study, but the more analysis for opinions do stay with us is always good to have. Good. See you then the hello, im manila chan. Youre tuned into modus operandi. 2 years into the conflict in ukraine. Demographers are reading the alarms about the dwindling population numbers in the country. You might think this is all due to the war, but actually, the details of the real causes might shock you. But well break it all down for you next. All right, lets get into the m o the its a grim future for ukraine is hundreds of thousands of men have died along the front. But thats actually just one small factor in the dwindling population of the country once labeled. Europes most corrupt. A year prior to february 2022. The un issued a report about a population bussed in ukraine due to things like poverty, unhealthy lifestyles, emigration an infertility. In short, even prior to the conflict, ukraine was already suffering from an agent population on one end, and not enough young people on the other to properly sustain and develop their country ad in the front line depths, and survivors who will frequently continue to live out the rest of their lives with severe disabilities. The grim 2021 you one report is actually now of best case scenario. Joining us to way in is mark sl boda. He is an International Relations and security analyst. Hes a former u. S. Navy nuclear, engineer and host of the real politic with marks the border which you can find on youtube, sub stack and telegram mark, great to see you. So 1st mark, we saw this pre war you in 2021 report summary about ukraines population dynamics. They certainly painted a grim future for ukraine. Im paraphrasing here, but in a fact, they say ukraine was already among the fastest shrinking populations on earth pre war. And that their numbers would hit this unsustainable 35000000 by the year 2050. But again, this was a full year before the Russian Special military operation. There are a ton of factors that play, of course, for population dynamics. But how do you think the war itself will re shape ukraines numbers as well . The war is going to have a lot of effect in a lot of different ways. None of them that are good for ukraines demographics and you cranes. Demographics are bad, probably the worst in the world because they couple a um, high emigration from the country with a high mortality rate because of the conflict with an already existing western or 1st world phenomenon of a shrinking population. Uh, because of, of, you know, the standard modern, a fax of birth controls women working and Everything Else combined with the economic depression effect on population that was almost universal across the post soviet space. So uh, in 1991, the ukraine had a population of about 52000000. That population has, at, by the start of the conflict that had shrunk to about 34000000 in just 2 decades, just over to date. Whats the cost to 3. 00 decades . Because of all of these events before the conflict and now on top of the conflict, which really started in 2014, with some 20 percent of formerly ukranian territory. Now, part of russia, the cry, me, uh, the done boss and uh, most of arizona is up a rosure. That is a huge of course, further population laws. Now there hasnt been an official census in ukraine since 2001. So a lot of it is, is due to an official research, but the real population of ukraine in area controlled by the key of government now may be somewhere between 20 and 25000000. Which is to say less than half the population that it started out. Its in 1991. So the, the current conflict, more territory almost certainly is going to end. The conflict in uh, as part of russia then exists now, so that that would be the 1st, the fact emigration from the country continues not quite as high, is at the start of the conflict, but it is very high. And i think that only a very small minority of ukrainians living either who have, you know, taken essentially Refugee Status in europe or in russia. And its important, its often neglected in the western media that there are some 5000000 ukrainians. All right. The meaning, you know, people from ukraine who areas that are still not considered part of russia that are in russia. Right. That are living, working, or you know, and some type of Refugee Status in russia. Most of those will not return like wise, i am quite sure whatever they may say to the contrary. The ukrainian refugees and displaced in europe. Uh and then battlefield, thats uh and uh, battlefield, thats our of course i, everyone absolutely acknowledges a much, much higher even currently then. Then what the key every game officially puts out. And the western press acknowledges. You hear comments about all the time in the western media from actual ukrainian troops fighting for the average him on the battlefield about how high their, their casualties are. But it doesnt kind of treat the narrative. Um, so as the conflict is very likely to continue for years into the future. So it is entirely possible that ukraine will and this conflict in whatever territory is still in independence state of ukraine if it still exists. At the end of this conflict with less than a 20000000. 00 population. Yeah. For perspective im from los angeles. As you know, la county alone has roughly 10000000 people, so it sounds like you create as is very sparsely populated to begin with. So lets talk for moments about the, the millions of ukrainian workers. You are really touched on this little bit, who according to the new one, they say that at any given time, roughly around 3000000 people are, are working abroad. These are mostly what thomas would call working age people. So you might say between ages 18 and 55. Then they say half of those people. So around 1500000 are considered low skilled occupation or laborers and the sort and the other half are the Young College educated professionals. The estimate is that one 3rd of them are under the age of 35. 00. It seems that that last cohort cohort, they seldom returned to the motherland because they went a cushy jobs abroad, you know, started building lives for themselves somewhere else. Most of them being meals. The boys never come home because theres a dearth of opportunity for them in their careers. Could we explain or attribute some of ukraines lagging birth rates to this whole labor issue to working abroad . Theres also constriction. Theres also corruption to the military that no, uh, really saying mail ukrainian wants to return to because they face immediately being conscripted and arriving in a trench in the front end of day of or uh, you know, on the flanks of back moot, often within 2 to 3 weeks of returning to the country, as we just touched upon in that last question. With so many men working abroad, never to return the loan number of males in ukraine is exacerbated by this forced conscription that florida mirrors zelinski, implemented boys as young as 15. 2 men as old as 60 are going to the front. If they manage to survive, as weve seen thus far, already, hundreds of thousands are now permanently disabled. I mean, not a whole, whole generation of ukrainian males are disabled. What do you make of that prospect who, whos gonna care for them and how . Yeah there, there are no good answers to that question. There, there is no, uh, answer to it. Um, a no, no pleasant answer anyway. There is that is going to be a huge burden the disabled of the population because many, many of those disabled are amputees, right. The majority of that as a result of the type of conflict in, in nutrition war flock. Very largely weve artillery and um, the cambridge him having a significant problem, getting their casualties back from the battle field to a safe medical facilities leads to that. The most often result of such types of injuries, according to the western media, according to you know, doctors reporting to them from the hospitals is, is often amputation. So thats, thats going to be particularly tragic and no one has an answer to that. At this point, no one but very coverage him supposedly has a 1000000 men under arms. That is what the president of the regime zalinski says. Of course, thats not counting any casualties from the beginning of the conflict, which according to the Russian Ministry of defense, are over 300000. 00 men and some estimates put them significantly higher than that. Um right now the Coverage Team is finalizing a new mobilization bill through the rod out through their, their parliamentary body. Theyre having political difficulties doing with it because theyre calling for the further conscription of 452500000 more. And no one wants to take political responsibility for that, but it interesting note is the age of the military. Up the front right now. The average age is in the mid fourties around 44. 00, which is should be shocking. And while of the average team takes in recruits volunteers younger than 25, it doesnt actually con script men younger than 25 yet. And that might surprise a lot of people until you understand the demographic and narrowing. That is an existential threat to the future of you great. Such that in the late ninetys in early 2, thousands because of the very bad economic conditions, corruption, the people werent having children there still or now of course, but there was a very particular narrowing then, which means that there are 4 times the, the population from say, 35 to 55 is or times larger than the population of 18 to 25. Right . I mean the, its, its a huge there. And so there has been an attempt to spare the Younger Generation of ukrainians from conscription, so that there is some one to carry on and have children ukraine, which is why theyve been recruiting so many older men who are now dying in the trenches. So, but of course, those young men are also in prime Economic Activity to their being taken away from the Economic Activity of the country. Right. A 1000000 under arms currently asking for another 452500000 more and considering how many have already emigrated either to, to the west, to europe or to, to the east, to russia. The millions that leaves of very, very small working pool, particularly when were talking skilled fields. And right now, what economy still exists in ukraine, which isnt much businesses are suffering from incredible shortages of labor and in particular skilled labor. All right, coming up next, modern western societies are seeing a lowered birth rate. Much of this due to infertility, is that why ukrainian women are finding surrogacy as a major source of income . Well discuss it when we return with marx, the boat i said type m o will be right back. The the water is a part of the leg. Is it possible to post good . Isnt the deepest to you of us and in the word part, is it something deeper, more complex might be present . Lets stop without collision. Lets go out of the the welcome back to the m. O. Im the middle of chan mark. So boda is back with us, mark face for sticking around. So what are the factors for the the population of ukraine is below fatality among women. Yet ukraine is also the western world baby factory. I mean, by that, i mean, renting a, well, many ukrainian women are star gets because of the very lax laws around all of that. So those baby, so theyre being born, but then they go somewhere else. Any thoughts on that . Yeah, this is a, its a very hot button, political and cultural issue right now in you grand, there is, has been multiple proposed bills put forward to the every james parliamentary body, the ronda asis, you know, asking for this sir. Again see to be banned. It has not been as of yet as far as i know, but there is certainly the possibility a simply because it is rightly or wrongly seen as taking potential children away from ukraine and essentially giving them to the west. Now, you know that of course is issues of choice of a womans body. But the fatality rate is an incredible problem. Point 7. Right . Uh, you know, an average woman of childbearing age now only has point 7 children thats far, far below replacement rate. It is now the lowest in the world and it is due to again, the number of factors, everything that is that societal economic problems. You know, 1st of all, 1st of all, the country with women. I now have and fewer children, thanks to birth control, abortions, uh and uh, women in careers, thats a phenomenon being experienced across the 1st world. And now increasingly into the global south is as well. But that is compounded with the post soviet economic depression, a phenomena experienced across most of the post soviet space rush, all pulled out of it in the 2, thousands. But ukraine has never emerged from the ninetys. And its often a shock to see those numbers. But when youre facing an in the secure Economic Future where, you know the future looks even less bright than the present and the present doesnt look very good. People tend not to have children dramatically. So uh, and then the very high mortality rate in ukraine. The right now, the average Life Expectancy of a man is between 57 and 58 years in ukraine. That is absolutely shocking. But even before the conflict, you know, um such factors as alcoholism, suicide, they all played very high roles. And in bringing Life Expectancy down dramatically. Once again, you can never emerged from the ninetys. Theyve, theyve been living in that shock, a sarah, the corrupt world ever since, and have never emerged from it. So that leaves to this incredibly low Life Expectancy, high mortality, high immigration, low fatality rate, a facility rate, and then the conflict and large amounts of Ukrainian Land voting to get out of dodge and joining russia. It is a demographic death spiral, and it has to be said as well as surrogacy, another, a problem that the ukraine is experiencing is unfortunately, this has been quietly reported on in the west, more academically than in rosalie. But the other thing that ukrainian women are selling that is of interest to the west, of course, has prostitution, which will almost certainly play in at some degree to the problems with the number of children being born as well. So according to professor Brianna Harris of the center for population change at the university of south hampton, u. K. She says this, the population crisis in ukraine is multi pronged listed here. So it was declined. And because of this, what we call the triple burden, which was low for to the rates, high immigration, and relatively high mortality. Alright, then you add in the war, some 7000000 people have fled the country as refugees. Population numbers are super low over our country that size, if we exam and part of what she said about high mortality. I was actually super shot to find out that about one 3rd of ukrainians die. I mean, regardless of gender that they died before the age of 65, due to preventable causes, and thats all according to the 2021. You on report as well. And why does so many ukrainians die off so young. The numbers are, of course, are skewed much higher towards men, then they are towards women. And there are, there are things multiple things that pay that a way into it, right . And a lot of these phenomenon can be found in, in western countries, you know, in, in europe, in the united states. But there to effect orally higher degree because of the perennially bad economic and spiraling down social situation in ukraine. Since 1991. Its expected, you know, um, alcoholism is probably the number one cause, but that plays in across multiple ways. And if you take it such things as a automobile, fatalities, heart attacks, all of which are exacerbated by alcoholism. You, you, you know, theres definitely a connecting trend that links a lot that goes into this. And the alcoholism is, is often directly or indirectly related to depression, which is a function quite often of the, you know, the economic well being of the country. It starts having synergistic affects just driving everything down a russia experience this during the ninetys in the early 2, thousands. There were a mean. It was a regular phenomenon in western media and even academia to depict the russia as a dying there. Because of the 4 cast a, the birth rate problem, the demographic problems again was the Life Expectancy and everything and russia pulled out of it. Right . Academic prosperity was restored, social order was restored. There were multiple programs to encourage people to have children. Alcohol use went down dramatically in the country and in those smart bar due to the government programs. But many people also suggest the vision of a young, athletic, energetic president s who drank rarely and, and responsibly if at all. So it is not impossible that ukraine could pull out of this demographic death spiral. Its not impossible, it was done, but the longer it stays in it, the much, much harder it is likely to pull out of it. I would not give them very good chances at this point, but its not impossible. Marks lombardo, thank you for letting me pick your brain. Mark is an International Relations and security analyst, a former u. S. Navy Nuclear Engineer and host of the real politics with mark sambota, which you can find on youtube sub stack and telegram. Thank you for that. Thanks for having it. All right, that is going to do it for this episode of modus operandi the show that digs deep into Foreign Policy and current affairs. Im your host manila chan. Thank you for turning in. Well see you again next time to figure out the m. O the the 1st time in history and meantime countrys culture has been cancelled the very modern weapons cancel culture. They need to ask the associate in my life so little and when the trucks yet just me sitting the one who puts the glue. The phrase now particularly refers to canceling russian culture. And yet the worst it creates a few orders to that i get 20 miles folks to push it over your that is chill out of it. So of that, go with it because i most of the summer actually i want them eat them, we blood rushes, created the pos 1500 years. Theres no questions partially condemned with mild and rejected to sit alone and use that a to put somebody at the middle of panel. Theres a lot, i dont know because i dont know she does it. I guess it a little, some of this is joining total condemnation grows daily and now including those to instigate, to call scape shostakovich that the i need to. Yeah. To left but yeah, she thinks that would be the w. Im really, you know, the, the, the why the russian people have spoken as vladimir due to any gains, a sweet thing victory in the russian president ial election. Securing another 6 years to me while the opposing tons, this secured less than 5 percent and the total vote. And so its hot out. Those come in at 73 percent with the polls closed on the boat. Some ballots loose counted. Meanwhile
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