The, to help us discuss global and demographic trends and what the influencing factors are. Were joined by bradley sherman, now brothers founder and ceo of the super age, a Global Strategic Research and Advisory Firm helping public and private organizations understand the challenges and harness the opportunities of demographic change was a focus on the population who was aging. Hes also the author of the super age. How long are life spans are changing every thing we know about work life and learning. And david, also co founder and managing partner of economy for where he led to Business Development in asia and europe, and served at the a rp, the World Largest organization, dedicated to improving the lives of owner people where he was the actually the director of Global Partnership and engagements. Welcome brad, the quite the resume that makes you an expert in this area. So i want to start off. Do you see a difference in what is what has impacted major and Global Demographic shift from the past and what were seeing today. This is the 1st time in history. Were populations are aging as fast as they are. In fact, in many countries now, one and 5 people is over the age of 65. But aging is just the prelude to population contraction, which is actually happening in a number of the worlds biggest economies, including russia, china, and japan. So were dealing with a lot of dynamics right now that are really up ending what we considered to be normal, the normal world and a normal economy. And because of that, we have to shift our thinking about whos able to work when they can be consumers. How we engage people in society as a whole, and whether or not g d p is really the only measure for society success. So really it all comes down to the dollar always comes down to the dollar no matter what even in this day. Okay, so what do you find to be the most positive trend . Reason for a trend to like this to happen and were going to start with the positive side. Theres always positive. Its the 20th century is a success story. We extended Human Longevity during the 20th century in large part because we took care of kids. Once we were able to keep kids alive, they were able to reach adulthood. They were able to get to old age. We built these wonderful social welfare systems. The economy grew dramatically. These are all positive things. These are things we should harold, the successes of our society. The challenge is that we havent adjusted them to accommodate what we call the new longevity. The fact that the majority of people now will live into their sixties and seventies and a good number of people live in to the eightys now as well. Believe it or not, people over the age of 80 are the largest and Fastest Growing demographic in the world. Thats incredible. Compared to the pass on the side of exactly. Most people didnt get there and were not ready for it as you say. And what area do you feel like where the least prepared probably in the care sector, that seems to be the one that everyone focuses on right now because population change involves 2 things. One is the aging of the population, this longevity, dividend that were getting here. But also were having fewer babies, and weve been having fewer babies now for about 25 years. Well, those children are now adults. Theyre working, and there are simply not enough of them to go around so. So whats happening in our con, the more broadly, is that the lack of work, or is of the inability for people to businesses to feel jobs, is causing inflation to rise. The fewer people that we have need fewer people to take care of those older adults that might be in need. So it is a bit of a challenge and were trying to muddle through it right now. No one has the right solution quite yet. Could we have been better prepared for this man that we knew the people are going to get older . They were living longer . Could we have actually done a better job of basically setting up the infrastructure beforehand to sure we could. Um, but we have to remember that wed like to wait. Wed like to wait until there is an actual crisis at hand. Believe it or not, demographic change grew up with Climate Change, their siblings there by products of the industrial revolution. Could we have done something to mitigate Climate Change 25 years ago . Yes. Did we know the same holds true for demographic change . We knew this was coming. Its been coming now for 25 years. In fact, 1st grade. So ive been declining now for about 200 years, with the exception of the baby boom. These are a long term trends. We are well aware of them and we chose to do nothing. So there are many countries are experiencing an increase in the proportion. I guess i have older adults do to climb for till the rates and improved health care. What have felt to do you think this demographic shift not only poses to health care, but also the pensions and the social support system that these governments are going to be expected to take care of these people when the business, the private sector cant . Well, i think within the health care sector, were gonna look at radical transformation literally overnight, because everyone whos anyone whos throwing money into this right now because they know it needs to be fixed. We dont have enough bodies to take care of the people that are there with the economy more broadly. I think we have to look at a future thats much more inclusive. We talk through inclusive through the lens of diversity in terms of gender, race, sexual orientation, gender identity, but we rarely include older adults in this conversation. If we think about the fact that were not only living older and longer or also living healthier, that means that we have extra years that we should be working. We should be contributing on. Thats an exciting thing. But we tend to shop people half of 65, why we start people off at 65 when they have it least, you know, 101520 years of good, healthy years ahead of them. Its, its, its kind of ludicrous were cutting out possible workers impossible consumers for the economy. Okay, so while the global age, as you mentioned, might be actually increasing the fertility rates are also declining globally resulting and low birth rate, smaller family sizes. Do you think this could also be a good thing . You mentioned Climate Change and why do you think this is happening . Was, you know, Climate Change pete, theres theories, the Climate Change fits into this somehow lower sperm counts for men, for example. Theres also the reality that our life course has changed, and people used to have babies and their teens and their 20 smell, they have them in their thirtys and their fortys. In fact, women over the age of 40 are the Fastest Growing group of moms in the world right now. Thats pretty different. And when you start late, youre more likely to have your children to on. But what does this mean globally . Well, literally every country you go to today, i dont care what the geography is. The birth rate is in decline. Now its different from place to place in a country like niger, every woman on average is having 6. 89 children. Can you imagine, right . But if you go to south korea, which has the lowest birth rate in the world there having point 78. 00 children per one. So whats a radical difference in terms of where babies are being born and where populations will grow versus where populations will actually contract . What do you think is the impact on this, or why is this happening . I mean, is it because the economy . Because the economic systems are mentioned, can handle it. Lower Income Countries are having more, which basically puts on the backs of those that are of other countries. Perhaps, you know, what caused demographic change to happen . Well, we can look at a number of different variables. The 1st and foremost is probably organization and the industrial legs, the idea of a family farm, but you actually need children to work on children were economic tools back then. They still should be by the why. I think you can find that in arkansas right now, as the governor is actually lowered the age for, for people to worked on to 14. Well, my grandfather entered the coal mines at the age of 14. I dont think were going in that direction. I would say this a good thing because i mean there was a lot of or if there was a reason why we took the children out of the coal mines at 13 and 14 and put them in school. Exactly. We believed in investing in use because investing in youth was the future. Well, what we did with all of these interventions, getting kids out of factory is getting them off the fields, making sure they had a stable, stable of food supply, making sure theyre clean water. All of these contributed to children moving from a one and to chance of dying before the age of 18 to a nearly 9095 percent chance of surviving into adults. These are all good things, but what that did during that period was explode the global population. We went from about 2000000000 people to 8000000000 people today. That is a disruptive change. Now as we go into this new era, were actually looking at a more historical norm for society, where well have slow growth in some nations, plateauing and others, and some decline in others to. We are still growing here. Were still growing here in the United States were growing cars are birth rate isnt to off that about 1. 7. It needs to be a 2 point one to keep population study, but we still have immigration here. Immigration is the story of america, and as long as people are coming in, the country continues to grow. Well, you mentioned that we do have immigration here, but these are coming from less well off countries that are still continuing to produce more than just the one child that the americans select that can hold. So are we kind of setting ourselves up on this railroad to disaster because to certain extent, who we cant afford the reason why people are not having more children. I believe here in america or in the western countries, they cant afford to have more children. Its, its, its in part because they cant for it to do it. Thats what a lot of people focus their energies on is the cost of having a child and my god, it is expensive. But the reality is people have more choices now than they did a 100 years ago. Women are educated, women have the right to vote. Let me have the right to work on that change. Its a dynamic we, we can have access to Birth Control and yes, even abortion and preventative. Preventative birds. So when you take all of these things together, women are more in the drivers seat, of their reproductive health. Choosing or not to choose to have children. Theyre also economically viable, theyre not, theyre no longer dependent on demand. Theyre no longer the primary caregiver or the primary homemaker anymore. So because of that, the dynamics is simply turned around. And what does this mean for the future . Well, not much. Weve been on this trajectory for over 200 years of declining birth rates. I dont see a turning around any time soon unless we go back to an Agrarian Society and in a society its very, as we say, traditional values where the man is the bread earner, the woman is in the house and she takes care of the kids in the home, its interesting that you bring that because this is a perfect transition because pose corner virus we saw major exodus from the organization. You saw people moving out of the cities. Are we seeing a reverse that has been to happen because of Something Like a Global Pandemic . Yeah, we saw the reverse, but they were typically reverse is to nearby rural areas. So, district of columbia is a great example, because if you go out, maybe, as far as richmond down into this in southern virginia may be the, the, the tidewater region. You can get here by train. Same for new york city, people going up into the hudson valley, perhaps on the long island its easy to get to. But in 3 quarters of our county use, most of which are rural populations are in decline. Thats outpaced birds. So it is in a full reverse. Ill also, i think is people are coming back to the office and yes, they are despite what people want, they are getting pulled back into their office place. This is moving the needle back to people coming into the cities. You just have to look at housing prices in major markets to know that theres demand to live in these places. Okay, so lets tie this back into how we started the conversation to at the segment about the aging population. Knowing all of this, did we find that that Elderly Population that they moved into the cities as well, or did they stay where they were at and how are those communities handling . Its a mixed bag. Boomers are a very Large Population or have been historically 76000000 at one time. Now theyre down to about 69000000. 00 in total. There was a move of older adults boomers in particular back into cities. But the largest percentage of boomers are still living in the suburbs, and this is problem attic because a lot of 10 people want to stay in their home. The suburbs typically dont have the right infrastructure in place to take care of an aging population. They dont have the right transportation services, they dont have the right social services. All these things are missing from the equation in a city though, where you live in a 15 minute neighborhood. I live just north of here in logan circle, and i can get to 3 Grocery Stores within 3 blocks. These are a Central Services that neighborhoods need in order for people to live and age well. Okay, so now we look at these boomers as theyre leaving these homes kind of in a suburb or suburbs to think that theyre going into retirement homes. Where, where are they going . Everyone will enter most likely will enter nursing care. At some point, there isnt a preponderance of people going into care settings. If they dont have to, people tend to go into care settings when theyre forced to. They have a fall or a major health event. Perhaps they lose the spouse and become somewhat isolated and move 4 on to base that in some way. But the reality is if you can stay at home, you want to stay at home. And most people want to do that. The good news is there are minor interventions that people can make in their own homes to make them level for longer periods of time, where you can actually build that runway for your independence for longer periods of time. And these are minor modifications, and they actually look really nice. You could hide them in the design of the kitchen or a bathroom, improving the lighting schemes, making sure basic things like the corners of carpets and rugs are taped down. So theres no trip potential there. But eventually we all have to deal with the reality, or most of us have to deal with the reality that we need care. We will need care at some point at the end of our lives. And is this happening . Were talking about transfer global trans, are you not only seeing this in western countries like the United States, u. K, what youre saying is in other countries, are they having following the same sort of line that the west, is there something that we can all actually agree on is happening . Yeah, its a pretty universal thing. But again, because aging and long ever, they are tied to industrialization, talking up modern economies. Obviously, if you go into economies that are still developing primarily those in sub saharan africa, for example, or perhaps live america, people are still living in multi generational housing. Theyre living with their grandparents, which means theyre better off. Theyre kind of going back to what youre encouraging people to do is to keep at home, believe it or not. Its happening here in the United States to all be very slowly and just underneath the surface from the, from about 1971 till today. There has been a trend to go back into multi generational living with in one house. It eases the care burden on all parts of the family. A grand parents can take care of grandkids, Adult Children can take care of their parents. It really gets us back to a more harmonious way of living, but also a more traditional way of living too. Because prior to the 20th century, thats all everybody left, right. Okay, so then youre talking about that, what is the future . Do you feel about what were talking about blue or is leaving their hope a homes open . Do you feel like this is going to have an impact on millennials . They might give them a better chance to own homes for the 1st time it does. It gives them a big chance. In fact, boomers hold about 40 percent of assets in real estate. They own about 40 percent of the Real Estate Market in this country. When they start exiting the Real Estate Market, those homes will become available to more people that might have been tapped out of the marketplace. This is a good thing for millennials and so you didnt even better thing for jen z. The short term thing thats happening right now is something we call the great wealth transfer, the great wealth transfer as the move of assets from bloomers to their project to the children. And these are typically late gen xers like myself and early millennials. And what thats doing is its giving this extra influx of cash in the marketplace that wouldnt exist otherwise, think of it like a private sector stimulus, right . So all of a sudden these Adult Children that are millennials and boomers that got these gifts from their parents, are buying real estate, pushing up prices even further. So in the next, lets say, 10 to 20 years, were going to see some of these stabilizing in the Real Estate Market. Perhaps not in major cities, but certainly in rural counties. And certainly are in smaller cities across the country to unless of course theres a really route, transformative piece of technology that allows that actually to work from home 24 hours a day. Thank you. Bradley sherman. Because after the break, were gonna actually continue this discussion discussion as fast as a look at whether it was some World Governments or actually manipulating demographic trends for their own benefit, at the detriment of others. Staging the data was made clear as deemed ukraine proxy war against russia as ex, essential, as such, russia to cease the conflict as x a central. It could not be otherwise, there will be no negotiate. At the end of this conflict, one side will lose the smart money is not on binding ordination. As soon as 2016 numerous monuments, the soviet soldiers in poland, ukraine, and the Baltic States have been destroyed or vandalized fish. Theres the body of us pharmacy. Normally within yeah, unless or even some others could ask if i would think so thats the most on whether its expressed what is the Police Government denies the rule of soviets soldiers in the victory of a non citizen. And is it raising historical memories of world war 2 . Because the 40 piece from your store, although it did seem to not see regimes, the trustees would remain think send people his consciousness forever. But as long as russell phobia is profitable and brings dividends, you are willing to have a to rewrite the cost yes. To the ill provides i need to see things because it looks like so i need october 30th the welcome back. You know, were going to continue our discussion about Global Demographic trends with our expert brad, the sherman, bradley. I want to go back this idea of immigration. Do you feel that some of the policies of some countries are purposely driving out certain demographics into other regions . And now these groups are usually, like i said, the more most poor or less educated. You know, i have all the various roto agencies that we have, do you think, is she more of a watch dog on those receiving these emerick grants rather than the accountability for the countries that seem to be pushing them out . Or you know, it, it, its the immigration is a really sticky, weird issue that we all get kind of consume with. Because there are no good answers. Obviously people are leading for a multitude of reasons on whether or not people actually get pushed out. I dont think theres really good data on that getting pushed out in the other places. We are starting to see obviously the 1st climate refugees on island oceans that are starting to move. But the reality is that, that we live in a global world now. And the question is whether or not were able to take in these folks on your own countries and make them part of you know who we are in the future. But it is the questions that are people not saying their own country, the ones that are leaving are usually the ones that are not necessarily prospected or taking care on their own society. Not necessarily the case. I mean we, we bring in a lot of really high level, high educated immigrants to this country. In fact, there are specialized programs, usually wiggly, though were looking at the southern board along the lines that are doing this of not the non legal way of doing it. Are the ones that i feel like are being pushed out because of Government Policies of their own kind. We definitely Government Policies and the govern Government Policies around a multitude of things like that. They, they dont have good social welfare protection for example, but they also might not have economic opportunity. Government policy also might have factors caused by government policy, correct . Government policy might also affect how um, in certain nations, in line america or Central America in particular are dealing with, with drug dealers. Right. Particular that the cartels and if people feel unsafe, are coming here. So yeah, it does come back to government policy in, in a major way, because if youre living in a safe, prosperous, youre not going to leave it. Why would you leave, right . Why would you leave . Of course, you know, one of the sub notes here is that one of the micro trends that im looking at very closely right now is the emigration of americans to europe. Its a small number, right . And over to the okay, ive, ive, ive been reading where they dont even see a lot of excess of americans to london. Yes. But its not just london, its southern europe, its germany. They liberalize their labor laws over there. So its a bit easier for us to move. They have no gun violence and they have wonderful social protection. So were starting to see americans take europe up on this offer. And europe wants to have them because if they can get highly qualified, highly educated individuals in, they keep their societies flourishing. Because people who are high income are always going to pay high taxes for do the maintenance. And i think that cause and from the american parent standpoint, the immigrants are coming exports. The southern board are the ones that dont have those economic opportunities, but the ones that are leaving the United States are the, are highly, are the ones that you would like to actually retain. Theres an irony there. So, you know, for myself, theres always a country thats better than another, right . Theres very rarely one that always sits at the top. There isnt one that sits at the top now period. Thats address. Theres still a great Value Proposition here to put in a business parlance. Theres still a great Value Proposition for pick immigrants in particular to come here. Its still seen as a land of opportunity for many. Well, well thats what were talking about because in the world is the world more ethnic racially diverse and prior civilizations have had with these terms. And why does this seem to be causing . In some cases, more conflict then being celebrated. And i see theres a couple of different ways of looking at the probably the easiest one is through the lens of race and culture on americas. Foundational culture was in slave. People brought from africa and primarily european christian or jewish immigrants. And thats what made of america now the america is really become very diverse and their populations from latin america, from africa, from the subcontinent, from asia that have really come in, in recent years and change the makeup of this country. Generations. He is the most of 1st generation weve ever had thats in america, that what about in china and even africa, youre not seeing that sort of diversity now. That is incurring and so are you seeing those demographic trends and the shift . How many, like what youre thinking and you have to take a look at china. China does not have large numbers of people going there. And people are interested in moving to china. And its still an authoritarian government. Its still controlled by the state. Its or they dont allow it or they dont allow it really just dont allow immigration, but its also amount of cultural. And so monona cultural was a dominant racial group at the top, the hon. That its very hard, even for chinese minority groups that exist within the country, 80 yourself them to actually find a place within that society. Its not welcoming to foreigners, youre always an outside of the same is true in a place like japan. A place like korea is opening up a little bit more africa. Not really there. They actually get some immigrants from china in africa now. But for the most part, their places in the world where people dont go, theyre not interested in moving to. Typically, people want to move to western highly industrialized social democratic countries. Thats what they want, where the gold standard. Thats that. Okay, so last question, i have to ask you, what is going to happen to these advanced nations . If people dont start having more kids . Are they still going to be advanced or, and show are we doing more to encourage the necessarily, you know, theres 2 sides of the coin. Um, having more children would take some of the burden off the health care system, for example, would continue to generate the economy. But it also puts more people into the pots that are drawing down resources. And we know that were living in a time where we swear resource a poor, and its harder and harder each year to, to take care of the global population. Were taking more from the earth and we can get back. I think on the other side of the coin. Now, what can europe do . Um, europe has to manage their transition very carefully. They need to increase order worker participation. They need to look at immigrants as a stop gap Solution Technology becomes very important in the coming years. They can protect what they have if they make the change. Now, if not, and you probably remember this argument from rush during the soviet era, the guns are better. What were gonna have to choose. Guns are old people. Some countries are not going to be able to pay for the defense in the future. If they have to deal with the social welfare commitments hold other, showing that when what ownership, bradley, thank you so much for doing is very insightful on everything. Thank you so much. And you can find more about products work by checking out his latest book to cutting our demographic destiny the super age. Now understanding and Global Demographic changes is crucial for policy makers, social painters, and government all to anticipate and address challenges related to health care, social security, labor markets, and infrastructure. And these changes also have implications for economic development, cultural dynamics, and social structures at the global and national levels. Accurate predictions of where these trends are going to help shape policies which have a negative or positive effect on the shifting demographics of a region. It is a rock of science or even magic, therefore see what the future holds. Have are those in power to often make decisions for short term knowing they will not have to deal with the long term ramifications to say that hes and this is been your 360 view of the news affecting you. Thanks for watching the started in 1983 with my father on a young man. The site thats all exactly the same as a kid does when he goes on the lake and the communities present for parentage with ron. Real nice families are really long time. My moms pregnant was me still online, and i grew up on long life. Ive been having this issue since probably 1970 was my 1st year that i seriously point into the explainable biomass is near historical levels. Growth rate have dropped falling when its done in its worst form has of leveling effect, and it has a tendency to really just sort of strip away everything thats there. The way fisheries are changing. Its the way our countrys changing. Its increasingly hard for Small Businesses to make it abundant. Stocks are important. I mean, who wants to fish the last bit, the message i would leave to you is the importance of not giving up the importance of working together and also the importance of taking care of your corner of the ocean. The a seal. This office felonies are still. A king street the journey of developing an identity, a national identity. There is, you know, we talked earlier about the vibrancy and the dynamics of the media will all sorts of use and narratives have a chance to, to face and come to the floor. Also has a downside in the everything is up for debate. Nothing is agreed on the the criteria when youre pumping billions of dollars into the neo nazi or we, she just, everything to, for the inflamed the conflict to draw other states into the russian president condemns western countries for igniting little conflict in ukraine. On addressing the most sca calling for it on international security, most gonna say, hey ive, if destroying the orthodox churches, ukrainian, lauren for when sees the monks residences . I think he has a chest for us. And as india celebrates the 77 years of independence from foreigners, colonial rule apartment is to load a house, his countrys supplies towards building a multi pilot. Well, the