The odds seem pretty high against that. It is striking to see just how forward leaning nigeria has been in this situation. And i admire the nigerians for that role of the government as lost the battle in jerry and parliament to intervene. They havent invaded you go. Exactly. So it is not really clear what nigeria would or could do anyway, short of really being willing to risk it all out war which was presumably is not really what nigeria needs right now were lost. So this is very much a work in progress. And it is not a good thing because in there are situations around the world where being a think tank or i can say, you know, that cool. Does that look all bad to me because the government got rid of was clearly corrupt or ineffectual, or, and you know, inciting violence or what have you. But this is not one of those cases. There was not all that Much Negative to say about the incumbent when he was the post is electronic, with doubted the incentives altogether. And of course, the countrys neighbouring is, it is a great coup with, with the pictures of the stadium. And theyve thrown out an imperialist french american lackey arguably, but of course, victoria newland from divided administration. A couple of the countries most, most of the countries around do not share that view as you know, and most of the countries around consider this to be very, very insidious and dangerous trend in west africa. Weve also seen effect malia and breaking up also where you have a small group of officers for selfish reasons, taking it upon themselves to throw democracy, to the winds, and then perhaps bringing the wagner group and create essentially uh, you know, a started where we dont, we dont know whether the self is we know the governments that were there previously were arguably selfish because of the amount of poverty in those countries. But do your book, i mean, victoria newland famous for that phone call. Uh, when the 2014 cooling in ukraine. Shes beat any jerichos. Why is it a good book . Good time for a book about military history, encompassing the civil war world war one is what to iraq, afghanistan and palestine, vietnam, korea, all of this in such a. Its such a simple book a why is a good time for this book right now . Theres not too much on palestine here, right . I do, i do, i set up some of some of the conflicts in the middle east that even if the United States was not directly involved, set the context for the words that we were later involved in ourselves. So in that sense, i do see my way through the 67 more of the 73, lord cetera. But thank you. Thank you for having the let me give 2 answers to your question. The 1st answer is very selfish. Ill admit that im selfish, which is that this was a good time for me to write the book, because i wrote it primarily during the cold and shut down. And when youre trying to write history and historians know this better than i do, because im not a real historian, i, i dabbled in this history, ive entered, admire and consumer of history my whole life. But i am not a full time professionally story and it does archive or research, but you need to be able to just sit with your thoughts and almost imagine yourself back in that time period. If youre going to do anything like engaging writing, that captures the feel, captures the motives captures, you know, what was really the driving peoples actions at that time. And so for me, the right time to write, it was when i could pull out of my busy life and spend just 3 or 45 months. Just thinking about the American Civil War and doing almost nothing else except going for walks with my family and you know, feeding the dog now. And thats the way history. I think this all makes that needs to be written, needs to be researched, and thats myself is. Yeah. So in terms of why its relevant to todays world, well, i only wish id gotten a copy to vladimir food before he invited ukraine because the book was still being completed at that point. And the problem that put and exemplified or demonstrated, which we also had of the United States with the iraq war, is that was almost never go as quickly or easily as the aggressor or the attacker. Thanks. And there is always a ton taishan to believe that your new technologies, your really and generals, and their fancy work flags, the marshal virtues of your own country, relative to your potential adversary, that these things will combine to give you a pass to a smash down a knock down victory on short order, and when most countries go to war, thats what they want and thats what they expect. But the history of nature, conflicts is almost always one of protracted war where outcomes are not at all. What were expected often become very uncertain for unprotected period during the conflict itself, including shouldve known better. Just like Donald Rumsfeld should have known better and 2003 to believe that he could decisively defeat uh, you know, a substantial military and country with a 3 or 5 or 10 or 20 day operation. That would have been the best benefit and its going to be relevant in the future. If anyone in china or the United States somehow dilutes themselves into thinking they could do the the other side. With the right. A i empowered, advanced military that has all these fancy gadgets and a brilliant war plan. You know, history tells you why the rest was using all the advance war for her. I mean, theyre not doing anything like the rock where you would support it in hitting a ministerial targets in baghdad. In fact, surely one point to the res, there is a of the payment that can proverb of the, to the americans that you may have all the tanks. We have the time the same with boots, elizabeth, i mean they just slowly exhausting. I dont know. Hundreds of thousands, dad, you met zalinski hundreds of thousands of dead in this war so far and rush was just dug in there. And i think the initial point of the move, any way, wasnt it to protect dont yet skin little hands golf to boot in. Did so little to give lead to save the 14000. 00. The was shell by nature back troops since 2014. Well 1st of all, i think youre right. The president has a strategy now where hes trying to win through attrition and perseverance. And he wonders if may be american politics or some other development in the west will give him that victory, or at least give him the 20 percent or 18 percent of ukraine that he currently holds. So this is ulysses grass they, if going back to you, but, and as youre, nobodys grant. But in fairness thats, thats not what food and water that 1st. And he did want to use shock and all to take down keys, and the government is the last night and he didnt even send an aircraft to bomb care if he didnt send will plans to level give you havent attempted operation. Try to seize the air field in the north. You had a 40 mile long convoy of the vehicle is trying to descend on keys. And he also had commanders in the area and Cyber Warriors trying to bring down the crazy and networks he may have been badly done. Im not saying it was a good plan, but he definitely was targeting keys and russia could have leveled care of goodness. Well, you might have been level it tomorrow. I mean its a choosing. Dont use it, you only get to make you only get to make one point at a time. If you want me to respond intelligently, your 1st point was that boot and did not really see a rapid overthrows even as rock. He did see a rapid overthrow of people. They have been a bad plan. But it was very seriously attempted through a combination of airborne attacks on the airfield. Cyber attacks on the networks a 40 mile long through conway, descending on key from the north and assassination teams in the capital. And he thought he would pull the ones that there was fascinated landscape. Right. The way i just, i, its very difficult to compute that. Anyone in washington dc, things today that if russia really wanted to do what use edited, it couldnt do it. I mean, the point about rush result was he didnt want to alienate the whole. Their brothers and sisters in ukraine assisted the country. They couldnt do what the United States did to baghdad or chevrolet in libya or in other countries as they have done little in vietnam se. But anyway, i mean that, okay, thats, thats your view. I mean, i dont know, i dont have the food in the bathroom, but as 800000 dead, theres 800000 dead ukrainians, most of them dead from showing of apartment building. So im not quite sure i see the new on site, so theyre not soldiers. You, you understand that there are a 100000 civilians in ukraine that have been killed half and half, roughly speaking, and you crank, but the players, let me find a point of agreement that you and i have here, which is that at this point flute and a has settled into a war of a slow, long drive where he still seems to think that either he has the upper hand or he just cant seem to find a graceful way out or both. And hes going to be patient. Hes sitting on top of an economy thats barely declined in g d b since the war began. Even though there is obviously grace offering throughout russia in terms of families who have lost loved ones. And there is a lack of access to it. Western capital and technology that will hurt future generations of russians right now, proving probably sykes, that time is on his side. So i think youre probably right about that. Thats the 2nd strategy that was not as versed wrench rusher is overtaken germany and do the b, b, b, b of the latest figures in terms of the worlds bigger economies. But you have a pull to the c. I a for predicting rushes, move into ukraine, but felt at the wonderful gusting that the world would last a few days, presumably because they thought the strategy was a strategy you are referring to, which, you know, i dont have the, the gremlins plans in front of me to see what their, what their ambitions we have what that targets with. So you want on top of the 220000000000. 00 given to zalinski you now one button to give him a 16 war plans as well. Yeah. But im in the ironic position. Perhaps so not really thinking that will turn things radically around. So im at the point where, yes, i favorites any of the tags sooner than we did. Because i think if we are given ukraine tags by early winter, they might have been ready to launch this off. And so by spring rather than summer, but weve all seen the results even of a Summer Office of which are not particularly compelling. And the same thing, i believe will continue to be true. I think we owe ukraine a fair chance to take back as much of its territory as it can. But by this point next year, i think there is a very high likelihood that we will have to encourage you, trying to consider an alternative strategy, and that decisively defeating russia to seize and re gain all of his territory may be morally justifiable, but is militarily unrealistic but i cant make that case now in fairness on, so we gives the lensky a chance to use a combined arms to maneuver operation without succeeds and other kinds of weapons like that. So thats the one piece. He still doesnt have that. I think we should give him, and i think that will be what happens in the course of the next few months. This offensive will play itself out. Well get into the cold weather. Well have a debate. Countries on countries are already offering a sixtys, as you know will decide how many will wish the ukrainians well next spring. Theyll do their best to win back some territory. Well see how the us president ial election plays into this. And then well have to take stock in a year. So i hope you have any back that to michael a 100, ill stop you that more from the senior fellow and director of research and Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution after this short break, the as the cranes much over 5 to counter offensive stalls. Western leaders have made a remarkable rhetorical, tippett spines, as proof of his already lost board. The secretary of state lincoln says russia has lost their narrative because a form of pseudo reality because making the claim ukraine is wendy, is untenable. The best of both known issue but for the mobile, when he was an annual g d p per capita, it was about 4000. 00 euros. The color in a mobile notary to watch the captor smear of man. Ive got to find that across the seal with us really into total source. Just letting them allow me to come out, please make your lives or stop the the single, the thought of unemployment is off the charts. Most of us territorial integrity and sovereignty. We respect the country which enjoys Financial Support from the us and the who is constantly ross by political and corruption scandals. But all the students stopped mo, google obtaining the candidate status in 2022 the the welcome back to going underground. Im still here. We dont to michael ohanlon, senior fellow and director of research and Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, and former Advisory Board member at the c. I. The mike, you were saying i am the one about how do you think by them should send the have succeed, will planes now immediately . What could uh, will give you as do to prevent as it lensky using the f. 16 planes against moscow . Obviously, uh cold. If you listen to the pentagon though, the state Department Briefings they uh, just look know of as generally as these, uh well what roger goal is to have her attacks because they clearly know of any military significance. Hes drove and attacks on civilians, structures in moscow. Surely the policy, your advocating is f sixteens attacking mosca, american f sixteens as well. Zaleski is obviously very strong willed and patriotic towards his own country, and wonders why he can fight back the same way, rushes fight against him. And thats why we do see apparently these occasional ukrainian drum strikes now against russian cities. But i think president , so as he is also well aware that he depends, as you put a just a minute ago on the 220000000000. 00 and assistance from the west. Hes received over the last 18 months and he cant jeopardize us at a time when republicans in the United States in particular are questioning whether a to ukraine should continue at its current level or even continue at all. I dont know the president , so as he wants to play the russian root like game of actually doing something weve explicitly asked him not to do. And we certainly can cut off the pipeline of spare parts and other support for those that succeeds where he needs to start using that in that regard. So that plus the fact that f, 16 a tax against russian cities are probably not going to end the war themselves anyway. I think will be a compelling enough reason. Thats the ones he would use them on the battlefield. But, you know, i think hes proven so far that generally speaking, hes a man of his word, a man of great moral courage way. So washington controls you just said, washington controls lensky. And i should say hes patriotism is arguably in question given hes banned the opposition and cancel the elections next year in close down a little opposition. Use papers, but youre saying washington would stop sending spare parts and things of the lens. He didnt take his orders from washington. I didnt say orders, i didnt say we control them. I say we influence so many knows where he got the 220000000000. 00. And he knows that President Biden is very serious about not risking direct escalation with russian that could involve the United States. So i think that you, for any and so far, despite these occasional drawing attacks have been quite disciplined and how theyve applied military for certainly far more disciplined than the russians. And i went through the tax on the scrim, in one bedrooms and, and apartment books. There, i mean i, i do want to get back to the book. Are you watching . Are you watching whats going on in this war . There are, there are tens of thousands of ukrainians dead. Good been shells in their apartment. Buildings are virtually 0, but how did she mean, i mean, again, go back to us knowledge human did not send real appliances which even didnt 10 guerrilla fighters to go and kill people in the white house loan during the vietnam war. I mean, thats not, thats not the way normal wolf are in your book, evens as it, when you talk about the, the, the defeats of the United States in vietnam have kind of son come body allow nicaragua, dont get to mention, id say, serial libya, i, the i mean, the house of the real war in the United States being at home, i mean the civil war on the killed. What 3 courses, the number of those who died have coded in in one year. And the, the does estimate the 183000 di every year, according to university of california to poverty linked to diseases. And when you talk about the fact that, suppose 45 things have got best in the United States. I mean, the United States and prisons, more per capita, arguably than style in or model if it is, you have Living Conditions that as you say in your book, have go back to those Living Conditions. Statistics globally, a skewed by china. Moving 800000000 as of poverty and 40 s as well. Theres a lot that you just said most of which i agree with, but please dont quite har. Prison system with style. I mean theres a certain point in which rhetoric gets carried away. But having said that, i think you are the, you do mention race, but i mean, the war is at home is Martin Luther king junior. Would say ill give a shortly. You say you there are we still wrestle with serious racial tensions domestically . But generally you say, you know, how would it be so successful . Well, failing so often. I mean, many people in the global science and the reason to break some, its in the 2nd i cooperation organization, the talking about a new world is 40000000 americans wont be able to eat tonight without federal aid. And i didnt talk a lot about the problems of the United States in my previous book, which was not about military history like this one. And the book is about military history for the modern strategist. So i did stick to my actual of focus, which as you say, is already pretty broad. But if youre not want to talk about overall grand strategy, i agree with your main point that if there is anything jeopardizing americas role to help backstop this global order, that for all his problems are still doing a lot for a lot of countries and allowed china to do what its done successfully and bring so many out of poverty that yes, we have to heal our problems at home. I mean lot why a lot of america is debate is turning to that set of questions. If it both encourages me, but it also frightens me because if we get so convinced that we cannot maintain a strong for our policy, because we have to turn all of our energy and resources, edward weekly wind up pulling back from the world in ways that are not helpful either, but i agree with your point, the probably the greatest threat to american and perhaps even global long term stability is domestic. Not like Life Expectancy is high. And now in cuba, then the United States, the official figures in cuba, it is a country that the United States is arguably being at war since 1959. Uh, but the problem is you may agree with me, but a Brown University estimate was 2 trillion dollars for the war. The last war in afghanistan, 8 trillion dollars of us public money. The could have gone to save those americans that will be dying this year because of poverty link disease. And you didnt want by having to leave afghanistan. You didnt want to obama to laser rack. You want to more money spent on these was way really the americans. We dont welcome you talk 1st of all about the global south and i agree with your focus on that area. But as you know, thats a catch all term for many different regions. Youre sitting in a region which as you know, better than i has been disheartened by american this engagement for a period or perceived this im not sure about that. You know, the Saudi Embassy just opened into ron, in the past. You know, a few days im, well, im happy about that myself. So i dont see this all in narrow, you know, pro us pro china pro, sorry, pro ron terms. I think that relationship should improve for the betterment of the region, but a lot of most of the middle east, experts scholars and diplomats that i interact with have regretted the rapid american disengagement from the broader middle east in afghanistan in 2021. We only had about 5000. 00 us military personnel on the ground. That was not what was producing a trillion dollar price tags. Those were the price tags associated with the big difference of yesteryear of so yes, in afghanistan discussion is certainly worth having. And i understand the other point of view, but i did favor trying to preserve what modest amount of hopefulness there was still in afghanistan. And there wasnt a lot who certainly was more than that. So i mean, clearly the americans were but whats for her . I mean, you know, why is it then . Then when the americans leave, as you say, get more disengaged, be starts breaking out with syria, with the run. With the b starts breaking out in between the 0 period. Our tre, a piece starts breaking out in latin america. Wherever the United States just engages from peaceful is as you actually want a response to that. I mean, thats just such a sweeping rhetorical over simplification. I dont know where to get afghanistan today is a mess. Youre right, but at least theyre not having a civil war. But the degree of impoverishment is striking. We tried this engagement in 1989. You know, your history as well as i do. Did that didnt work so well either that led to malware ation. And ultimately you have to understand, we help, we help the afghans to feed the soviet squared away with this was when the United States was supporting what would become al kaiser and helping been loved. What do you mean . We disengaged this thing, judge a tool we might or this is a bit like in your book when you say the reason you support a route or even retrospectively to that im a single you. We got rid of Saddam Hussein and his family, the americans bought said i was saying they were paying am i, i do want to get back to the American Civil War. Ulysses grant, you use a quotes of his, the and then we have to not on, on me enough, easily like classic the what rusher is doing and what the entire global. So its a defective backing. Russia thinking when it comes to the rest of the ukraine situation isnt, isnt there a panel the, the 1st of all, i dont think the global south is backing russia. I dont have any regard particularly for you or for me or anybody sitting in comfortable places like we both are right now. The global south makes up his own mind based on his own intro. Lou is being on this program. Hes president of brazil. And he clearly doesnt like the way the United States did to him on con is being on the show. He, he said it was a washington coup that over through him, weve had pretty major people from the global south on this show, youre making separate points. Your original flight was there supporting russia, which is nonsense, and you dont know, lets just get back. Its a nonsense and you know what, what they, what they dont support necessarily as our interpretation of why the war began. And they dont necessarily want the water to be settled on the terms we propose that they dont like the war and theyre not happy about what food is done. Most of the ones i know now were talking about a 150 countries. So obviously we cant generalize too far, but my, my Central Point on this issue is that you are right to say we cant just presume that this war is going to be wound up on terms that we insist upon or even president s the landscape. Whats what go to do with me and i did states and tool. This is a war in your work. I mean, a powerful blowing of the noise dream. Why . Why does the United States feel it has anything to do with whats happening in your whats it going to do with you or the united state . You heard of world how far from your orders . All your questions to zalinski has to not use these billions of dollars a much needed public money at home as well. I think, you know, the history of world war one and world war 2 and they are origins. And they, they happened when United States was completely disengaged. And since world war 2, europe has been generally at peace, partly because of nato and the american engaged they tube. Um you guys live here in the ninetys very cause beyond the war since 1945. And that was washington was with, to destroy your, with the general for us. But the general thrust of history in europe was at war for centuries on sale, roughly 1945. Since that time your of us had 2 substantial wars over in 80 year periods. They both in tragic, i wish they didnt happen there to, to many. But the idea that the United States should this engaged to me just smacks of the United States because it war with itself can you believe for centuries before and obviously since independence as you delineated in your book. 11 obvious question. I know we were actually in the anniversary 79 years since the world of massacre, 50000 dead stefan mendera they hear of celebrated in case of today. He was responsible for that in poland on the 12th of august, 1944. No mention of that in this book. Is there a problem with working at the Brookings Institution, knowing that Northrop Grumman spends so much funding your salary is Lockheed Martin x on mobiles, chaperone bank of america, microsoft and google pen pentagon contract as well. Do you feel no influence a tool knowing that your salary comes from the ons contract is the benefit from the recycling of the us public money through the dead and wounded of ukraine into the Bank Accounts as well . If you read my writings over 30 years, you will see i have often opposed weapon systems, often oppose Defense Budget increases. Often opposed wars. And by the way, you misrepresented my thinking on iraq. I supported the search was that gnostic on the invasion and they started there was a way we could avoid it. Well, making sure saddam did not have w n d and any kind of a verifiable way. We should not have that one. So there are plenty of times where i have not done what the defense industry, whether its necessarily by your caricature or have wanted. And so i guess thats the best i can do it. Answering that question, we decided not to take money from the governments of the broader middle east region at a time when we thought that we should be not accepting money from non democratic regimes. That was a big decision that happened about 4 years ago. And that was in a sense weighing the same kinds of considerations that you are putting forth, that even though we werent being told what to say by the saudis or the morattis, there were concerns about perception. There were concerns about potential allegations that we were influenced more than we were. We certainly always spoke our minds. People wouldnt work here at they couldnt bring that they believe because as we all are, as is stubborn. Independence scholars who like to be able to have our own voice told you might go on the books at the thank you so much. Thank you. Thats it for the show. Will be back on monday, ahead of Indian Independence day with one of indias most famous politicians and intellectuals, Indian National congress and funeral to shushing through it. But until then, you can keep in touch of our last so shall media of it. So expensive in your country. And had to have channel going underground tv on rumble, theyll come to what you and old episodes of going underground see monday, the the we have this to go on tenderness in the United States. Weve exported it now to the world because of Multi National corporations and weve been damaged to believe that babies needs be nurtured in care for and love. And, and so youve got a whole bunch of traumatized people all over the world. Post Traumatic Stress disorder that dont know how to keel the the i go watch member cobble there that speaks out against the blog potential military intervention in new jersey. Echoing the overall sentiment in the country with locals coming out in support of the 2 government. Im ready to die for my country, but they have no shame. Now that we want to take our independence sees that could attack. Theyve been stressing as and we will answer that. Who will do it until they leave our country. Following months, a violent and india state of manner per you delhi police are set to collective personal information of people coming from North Eastern states using google forms. We discussed the issue with our panel of get i think the police must