Was so was the number of call the 19 cases poll serum for google and some good friend frank luntz as it was as the homestretch of the strong biden contests we ever seen anything like this now and i dont want to see anything like it again the truth is im heading tonight to see the game 6 the world series because i just need to clear my head and i know that thats not a great strategy with exactly one week to go before the election but just maybe a little bit of baseball would give me a way to get through the next 7 days what i havent as yet anything concrete debated. The problem is that both candidates are being rewarded for not being specific both candidates are being rewarded for not being detail that donald trump still doesnt have a clear covert plan because he keeps denying it significance and joe biden will not tell voters what hes going to do with the Supreme Court or the filibuster because he knows it will eliminate either is base or swing voters and so both candidates are being rewarded for doing this and the American People instead of getting the details and the facts and the substance in American People are just getting platitudes and Ugly Campaign ads and a debate that was a little bit better than the 1st one but still not as affirming as we have the right to expect how does that affect the pollster. Well id i have now said and im prepared to acknowledge it on your show that if the pulses get it wrong this time theyre done the industrys done the profession is done that they were so clear d in proclaiming Hillary Clinton the winner in 2016 and they were wrong and now theyre doing the same thing with joe biden 20 twentieths donald trump can come back and come found the experts in the polling profession is finished as a profession. And wearing a pulse is telling you. Theyre telling me now that the undecideds tend to be trump voters who like what hes done but dont like how he did it they like his agenda but they dont really like him versus a joe biden who they like very much theyve come theyve become accustomed to him and very positive in reaction to him as a person but not so positive to his agenda which im not sure that they know and so the chum people seem to be coming back and basically those last undecideds are splitting off based on 2016 though and based on their own partisan leanings what that means is a slightly closer election and weve seen that over the last 96 hours but only slightly closer in the margins and dance trump right now are significant and i dont see how theyre overcome. As soon. As cases since the vandeman began trunk continued to acidic under is rounding the corner do you see that i can see that i can see that because the travel that ive had to do in this campaign i cant see that because of the people that i run into that when you look at the statistics its clearly significant and a threat and the problem now is that nobody wants to be locked down nobody wants to go to the process as we went through in april and may. And that may be required and the other aspect thats a problem is that its now affecting those communities that it did not attack before kobe used to be an urban a city virus now its affecting all those communities that never touched in small towns in Rural Communities and by the way larry when i find most impactful from a political standpoint is that the very people who downtime said dont vote by mail dont trust it vote in person those are the people who are most likely to be denied the right to vote or the chance to go because of covert spreading and it. Just adds an extra layer of chaos to an already chaotic situation at least 5 of my vinces aides including receivers that of have tested positive when we were in the war is an old is a big issue because everyones been testing positive because weve lost a lot of people because its now become a fact of life that every day its the best way i can equate it and i was barely alive forward but its what happened in vietnam. When every night Walter Cronkite would lead would read the number of people d who were killed or wounded and they became just numbers we heard it and saw it every day and it stopped having impact on us i think the same thing is happening right now or kobe but i take it seriously because the numbers are just so significant if trump loses we assume its real cause of covert yes much as whats what you and i talked about before we went on the air much as Herbert Hoover was the Great Depression was the last because of that event were going to say the same thing and in fact id say to you im prepared to say now having watched the 2 debates and where we are as a country that donald trump actually would have probably won reelection if kobe did not happen because it affected not just a virus not Just Health Care but the economy and jobs and Government Spending and taxes and the debt and i think that it also led to one of the reasons why we had such significant social unrest earlier this year is that people were frustrated and they were angry being held up being locked up and that was part of a reaction to to what was happening to them none of this would have happened if cope with it not happened and so i understand why downtrend why dollar trungpa hates the Chinese Government so much because theyd been just a little bit more honest and a little bit more forthcoming maybe looking at 4 more years how come we never got it wrong that around us i dont think you have a believe that i think in the end he thought that was a mess that he was told by the Chinese Government that it wasnt a big deal that he was informed that it was all in their control and then when he realized that thats just not true it was too late he was already. Mired in what was happening and this is not an easy thing for a country like ours to deal with if your a totalitarian or author were tearing governments you can lock people up in their homes easily its what you do every day politically or economically this country was experiencing the strongest economy in 50 years this country was experiencing real job growth and wage growth and then when all that went to help people were really pissed off about it and they frankly they didnt want to stay at home they wanted to work they wanted to enjoy their newfound Economic Prosperity and trump wanted them to do it but in the end and ill give you one polling statistic to back this up we asked a question which is a higher priority to you. The your health and safety or your economic safety and the public chose health by 2 to one over economics and i dont think trump is expecting that choice. Around people around him are going to miss. Knowing they have the wrong people around him i think dr fox has done an outstanding job i think his staff has done an outstanding job how can he mess is that the chinese were not honest or forthcoming they simply told the world that a fitting was fine that there were no problems and the chinese they went and then they traveled during the Chinese New Year they went to all these countries as though everything was ok and they brought the virus with them its funny or ironic that they can go to china but they went across the globe and right now im getting reports that the chinese economy is back on track that their growth rate is now exceeding 5 percent at the same time that we are still in deep trouble not that they meant to do this not that that this was premeditated i do not say that at all. But china has economically benefit from benefited from this state been responsible for the deaths of over a 1000000 people and when asked in wonder whether theyll be any response from those countries who face this look were all in this together whether its Climate Change or cold it or any of these issues that are global in scope were all in this together and it may surprise you to hear it from me but i really do accept that weve become an interconnected world and we just need to be honest with each other empathetic with each other so sympathetic with each other and we have failed in that nature we failed on the global scale and we failed on a local scale thats not the kind of guy trump is. Your connector of was not far sighted but it but hes also a very strong individual and willing to speak to to power trump is not afraid of the New York Times is not afraid of the leaders of china and there is an advantage in having a president and that isnt afraid and thats willing to hold people accountable the problem is that thats not what were looking for right now the american merican people want to hug not a not a verbal barb they want someone who feels them not just someone who who intellectually understands whats going on in context. Houses of the polling the view in masks you goodness of fate way you go and how you see things. Well my mask is actually about 10 feet away from me on my dining room table fortunately im not polling any one of my home so that helps i have not done any in face focus groups i have gone out to do want to one interviews and 3 on one interviews in fact i was just on the road this weekend ive been on the road now almost straight for the last 2 months and unlike you i went through a health scare for a while and i have to be careful that said i need to keep listening and learning from the public understand understanding where they stand is really essential and its never been more sense of the now to try to be able to explain both the hopes that people have hopes and dreams and to be able to explain their fear and anxiety and larry let me just answer one more question that you didnt ask i wanted to know what the phrase was and the word was to best describe the American Election so we asked people we gave them a number of different choices the number one word is exhaustion people are just exhausted by what we have been through for the last year and the number one phrase that they said thats represented their point of view about the election overall i am so tired of being so tired and i get it i feel the same way. Come back well get frank luntz is up to what will happen on november 3rd more with a great frank wants to this. Is your media a reflection of reality. In a world transformed. What will make you feel safe. Isolation full community. Are you going the right way or are you being led. By. What is true whats his face. In the world corrupted you need to descend. To join us in the depths. For a mate in the shallowest. Join me every thursday on the alec simon show and ill be speaking to guests of the world of politics sports business im show business ill see you then. Welcome a dropout to again continuing conversation with frank luntz on of the nations top pollsters political consultant and master messaging we have to get a prediction from frank a final prediction and will delve into it was going to have among them the. I unless unless the polls are really off and unless something significant happens in the last 7 days because so many millions of people 45000000 people have voted already and were going to get over 50000000 within the next 23 days we never had went by the way we could add more people voting by mail and voting early than actually voting at the polling place on election day so so much of this is already baked and its already determined i dont see a downturn catches joe biden i think that biden wince i dont think its a blowout i dont think its a landslide and by the way i dont think its a mandate either and heres the reason why we ask people voting for biden and voting for trump is their vote more for their candidate or against the other candidate in downtimes case 80 percent of dollar terms voters are going for him and only 1000 percent of voting against buying in joe bidens case 54 percent of binds voters are actually voting against our trump and only 46 percent are voting for joe biden thats significant that tells me that this election is a referendum on down trump rather than a choice between trump and buy so at this at this stage i see biden is waiting but not an endorsement of him simply a decision that they want to go in a different direction on the National Scale big or not. Its turned out a bigger turnout than anything weve had in more than 50 years everybodys voting in fact some people have been twice im a going to chicago a lection day because i hear my grandfathers coming back to vote hes been dead for 40 years but they tell me hes going to vote on election day in chicago. Or what about this whole campaign as you viewed it troubled you the most or the days when you said i cant give a handle on this i found the interest of what so let me offer you the place that i got a handle on i 5 and i finally understood what was happening based on my focus groups over the president ial debates those undecided voters are undecided not because he disagreed with the 2 candidates some policy is because for downtimes case they think is a ministrations been fine they prove of his tax policy they prove of what hes done but they dont like him they dont like his approach they dont like his language and dont like how he deals with people they love joe biden they really find him to be a decent and a kind in the visual and empathetic but he wont tell them where he stands on issues that matter to them so they refuse to back him because they think that hes hiding something therefore they have to decide which is more important to them dollar terms persona or joe bidens policies and thats why theyre undecided they cant figure that d out yet thats been the greatest conundrum whats bothered me the most was that 1st debate and candidly i was in the hall and if i had not been given a pass to attend i would have stood up i actually thought of standing up and saying everyone shut the hell up answer the questions and stop being rude to each other it was such an embarrassment so frustrating. But thats how they behaved and the American People were just as angry as i was president term hasnt mentioned wrigley. Nor has you mention malan vallas lately what do you make of that he cant because hes republicans to vote by mail and in its republicans to participate in every possible way and if you discourage people from voting early then what happens if cove it really strikes in the next 7 days larrys been going up every single day its going to become more and more difficult for people in certain communities to go out and participate poll workers are going to want to participate and you cant shut it down at the last minute i dont know with of the impact that its going to have its going to be significant bringing down a very really diverse less will do well. I think hes going to see ever so slightly better among hispanics and latinos particularly male hispanics and latinos i think his vote total in 2020 is going to be above what it was in 2016 converse lee hes doing worse among women and in fact the general gap in this election cycle is going to be higher than it has ever been that basically most men are voting for trump most women are voting for biden and im surprised that the divorce rate is not higher right now because of it. What would could change the whole picture. Terrorist attack in the last 7 days i dont believe the scandal will change because trump has been trying so hard to show that biden is corrupt and i dont think that is landing with any boaters. The ads wont change at the rallies wont change it the speeches wont change it its going to have to be some major of events that would frighten me because it would have to be so significant at this point again if the polling is correct. But if the polling is wrong then my profession is not just going to have egg on its face its going to have a pioneer face is going to look like soupy sales back in the 1960 s. Thats a reference for you there or do the polling a surprise. That the public is very willing to explain where they stand ive had no trouble pulling out peoples opinions and fact thats usually been the problem in in my work because i do focus groups as well as quantitative polling that people are forthcoming that they dont explain how they think and how they feel that they are really closed not in a selection everybody wants to be heard my problem areas im not convinced everybody wants to listen and learn. And was the best sometimes who is the worst of times court order encourages you about this. By the way you mention best of times worst of times i love that book i would say you that Donald Trumps campaign is almost like. Frank sinatra id be playing New York New York at all my rallies and id be playing my way at all my rallies so i get that. It was a very good year is another one. I think what surprises me is that the public even with a health scare is willing to come up come out and show up for down trump even though hes down in most down in every poll and even though most pundits dont think hes going to win that theyre willing to be heard theyre willing to be seen and even to put their own health on the on the line to let their support and their voices be heard by by People Like Us im surprised at the intensity of these rallies and how he can still really wepa crowd. Frank buzz in the face of his seems stupid to you why would you go to a rally ok then youre going to say that im stupid because i want to see this i want to know whats going on i want to talk to people i will stand away from them i will have a mask on i went to the Peace Agreement between israel and u. A. E. Because i knew how historic it was it not been done in 27 years i went to Trumps Convention speech because i was invited i wanted to see these events i was careful careful about what i touched i was careful about where i went i was careful about where i stood but that hasnt changed the day that i stop really trying to understand americas the day that ive given up and while i am not optimistic about our future i havent given up yet im still trying im still learning and so trying to impart a sense of unity and community and frankly. Reconciliation we all have a mantra and that mind the idea that you and i dont agree on politics i know we dont but its a joy to talk to you even if its just to the computer you and i may not agree on policy but i want to know al you think what you think i want to know your experiences i want to know everything about you i believe that under reconciliation will will again be curious about each other charities to know why things work the way that they do curious to know why we had successes and why we failed that hasnt changed and i think that uniquely american and that. No matter what happens with donald trump and joe biden that will still be a part of the american psyche. Use of the job i mean will win can you break it down for me. Yes i literally smile i think pennsylvania the state im looking at the bayou has advantages right now are pennsylvania michigan wisconsin and all 5 of those states when us are all 3 of the states with their 5th roughly 50 electoral votes went for. Went for donald trump i think that by winning those 3 states that gives biden the edge i do believe the florida ends up in terms of camp ohio which which most of the polling shows is to cause to cause i think that ends up with donald trump i think iowa ends up or down trump and so its going to be a relatively relatively close election but its very hard to add those extra states to get those extra electoral votes to put for me to see trump actually beating by that point but who knows i could be surprised ive been surprised before leaving women will lead joe biden president who knows this yes and specifically younger women have been voting democrat for many many years there in under 10 it got to be women who are under the age of 40 where i think biden is going to do better than Hillary Clinton or women between the ages of 405540542 those women had been republican and now particularly married women with kids and now that vote has shifted towards biden and one of the reasons why is the schools we open in the schools and you and i have not talked about this but i think its really really important the idea that trump said go back to school that all the kids go back to school and these moms were afraid to send their kids back to school because they were afraid they could get sick or they were afraid of the virus they would bring home with them. And that down in that period of cold it when they were making decisions and an education that in American People thought this is not the right approach to education that we need to be safe and we need to react safely sensibly responsibly and those women left down trump at that point and i think that thats going to be the deciding factor in this election you wary a lecture tonight you get excited where i. I will be in washington d. C. Election why i hope to spend it with friends youre right to ask me that question because for me Election Night is the most Election Night is christmas and new years oh my god they all woke up and one and where i spend it definitely matters ive been offered the chance to be an analyst on a Major National network i have not decided yet if i would take it because i enjoy being with real people and and ill lose friends what people realize is that individuals like me know all the senators they know all these congressman and some of my friends and be defeated on Election Night and i want to be there for them i want to be there as a shoulder for them to support them and tell them that im grateful for their service so well see find you are an important contributor to the american scene for us to honor knowing you now larry larry please hear me is an otter knowing you your National Treasure im glad that youre still doing this and you have so many interviews and so many years to go you teach us what we dont know and we have america thank you for all that you do god bless frank luntz we thank him for to this time today and we thank you for joining us on this edition of politicking hey remember you can join in come a very conversation our Facebook Page and dont forget to use the politicking kings things hash tag. Thats all for this edition of politicking. It was supposed to be a landslide we were told a blue way alonso didnt have the vote the polls were again while weve wrong trump may still lose this vote but cant explain trump is a fluke or an aberration stayed in what we expect next. Some control from middle class to homeless overnight most of our very hard working people who want to get ahead that have either have some some Health Issues or have some of it out of strict about luck a full time job wont always pay for a place to live and missing just a months rent can get she will victim to gunpoint if anything bad happens to any thing that just throws your budget off slightly. You better catch up real quick or youre going to have a judgment of possession against you and get addicted to anyone thats homeless is history like garbage people look at you like a monster or someone bad or you chose to be there most of the time its not the case see how it is to be paul in the worlds richest country. Shows seemed wrong why dont we all just dont call. Me old yet to shape out these days to come after. And engagement equals betrayal. When so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. Battleground america the democrats put one foot in the door of the white house after 3 times danged joe biden looks set to become the 46. 00 us president was key states in the very edge closer to announcing their results. If you count the legal votes easily when the recount is truly show me version i will be declared the winner. Although listening to that it could still be a bumpy road ahead as both candidates clash over ballot results with some in the republican camp claiming that they can and has been fooled you didnt the delay to announcing the president s huge question marks i would have liked to