A strong defender of the president he says talk became players that broke records in the short created millions of jobs and unemployment at record lows he just taxes and wages increased trump is one of the greats yet the super rich feed him so they want to paint a bad picture why else would he be out for 3 piece of warts norma says i was watching c. N. N. And a commentator said trump would come to scotland when he loses i was screaming at the television we dont want them either j. C. Says you dont speak for everyone some of us support him actually but bob says the world these to distance itself from america before the pool of the country is down the toilet with them this is why there are so many people in america whose heads are spinning just now and theyre back to this media. In april we asked professor David Blanchflower for his assessment on the measures required to stave off a wont recession this is what he had to say then in 2008 the world was unprepared for a financial crisis in 2020 they were unprepared for basically a Health Crisis and so now were playing catch up and all the responses that weve seen which i said were exemplary but im not going to be enough theyre probably going to have to do the same thing next month and the month afterwards and some of the things that were seeing are unthinkable is that over this decade or thought oh the world and policymakers have been utterly unprepared today he joins alex to assess the impact to date on the United States and world economies and get his views on economic consequences of President Trump and challenger joe biden and president of lunch for joins me from florida welcome back to the show danny. Good to speak to you again of course now what about the Economic Policy the sponsor in america when i last spoke to on the show you were pretty complimentary about the the big guns being trained on the the impact of the pandemic i still satisfied that the immediate policy the sponsons been up to the task well it was really very good from around law a law down huge response sent through by congress all together and then as often is the way with these things the initial enthusiasm died away and the Unemployment Benefits that the congress was paying out stopped at the end of july and basically the economy has now started to slow because the stimulus has been pulled back and the economy is slowing and i think its actually impacting the polls and its impacting republicans and its impacting Donald Trumps position in the polls so the answer is bad there and in the u. K. Context we so Good Good Good response oh now we seem a chance to look at labeling around of the day we starting to see unemployment rates coming out and i suspect yet were going to see of the same thing in the u. K. So initially good and now theyve got cold feet and were seeing slowing as the kind of expressing it now you will one of the most trenchant critics of the economics of a stand at the end of the Great Recession of 2910. 00 but its a different perspective a bigger opportunity now because because the borrowing rates are so low nonexistent what exactly is the constraint the fiscal constraint that so many governments seem to be if 100. 00 cuffing themselves putting themselves in manacles as opposed to taking the opportunity of these a credibly low balling rates to to get the job. Don what weve seen in the United States is a tax giveaway which raise the deficit and raise the debt by 2 truly so i think its hard to argue that you care that much in these times about the debt so i agree with you that borrowing is a is completely sensible thing to do perhaps what we should focus on is not so much how much should you borrow the question is what should he spend it all and i remember telling you when you were 1st minister you when you thought a lot about well can we do about Shovel Ready Projects can we actually start think and investing things and it was about building off those build schools build roads build sensible things to get the economy going and quickly so the answer is you can borrow cheaply go do it its an Economic Policy terms what difference would a President Biden make going to pamper to the president comes absolutely not i think youre going to see a series of things i mean the 1st thing youre going to see on the International Things this that biden on day one will rejoin the paris the paris climate a commitment youll see a bigger push in terms of helping people in clean energy and all of that kind of stuff but i think what youre going to see is a steady way Forward Investment in jobs try specially to protect the Affordable Care act and i dont think youre going to see anything huge carly because biden has reassured the markets and has actually said that when the big economic call isnt alexs that theyre going to reverse those tax increases and theyre basically going to promise they will do nothing to the vast majority of people who earn under 400000. 00 a year and i think the reason in a sense is that those tax cuts really have show its hard to see any Major Economic benefits you just change income inequality and wealth inequality you just move money to the rich so i think thats the big thing going to see but i think increasingly there is not going to be a giant change because they reassure the rockets and. Basically they can and move to job creation especially in in Climate Change areas. The lesson of economic crisis is the end does provoke new economic thinking when keynesianism was at a large extent new economic thinking caused by the Great Depression by often takes a bit of a time for it to to become a translated into Economic Policy often doxie seems to have a strangle hold and we saw that again in 2910 what are your hopes this time grown with a serious economic crisis following the hand demick that new economic thinking will be translated into new Economic Policy where theres a really great question i mean if you had you have to look forward and think well what did we learn from the pandemic in america the crucial distinction is the republicans are going to the Supreme Court a week after the election with 20 attorneys generals to tear down the Affordable Care act and the question is 75 percent of the people support it or what are you going to do are you going to remove that place with nothing so i think Going Forward these kinds of battles about Care Health Insurance how you deal with the low end of the crucial thing and i think the other question is going to be what the heck youre going to do about it you know in the skull in this a big issue in this initiative and in america its a giant issue what would be unit vice the governments our own to what hold in order to get new economic thinking translated into policy action well i feel this 2 parts and im a student history is you i mean the 1st thing is that when the boat sinking in the people are in the war so priority is to save them save the economy and build it and then start a plan for the future and i michael and i thought a lot about this in fact in 1943 in the midst of the 2nd world war with student should chill go got an economist william beverage to actually write about i mean you know this write about what are we going to do. When the troops come poll what are we going to do when the women who worked in the factories what are we going to do about them when they come home and this great work he did talked about establishing a welfare state thinking about how we run an economy so that pizza or decent jokes of people so its that kind of thinking strategic long term thinking i mean its a bit like what are you going to do when the troops come and the answer is you can have to start to build a society for everybody youre going to have to start to deal with the left because its about science good jokes for people so im going to get you to take a crystal ball and you have you know takes me to way for a 2nd that i want to push on whether you think the policy response until nationally is going to be like the new economic order which followed the the cataclysm of the 2nd one war or is it going to be the the underachievement and the performance that followed the Great Recession of 2910. 00 im going to get a new way an economic summit going to be stuck in the ruts in the past oh my heart hoax my heart hopes that it will be kind and gentle and positive but my head tells me that it will be much like we saw in the Great Recession where George Osborne comes ian impose austerity and says were all in this together which is precisely that was not true that was precisely not true and so the question is once with through this pandemic and we through this phase will it be back to the old will. And i dont know i mean i do think alex that perhaps whats different this time is that this pandemic will change peoples of behavior in the long run the Great Recession didnt it didnt it was back to normal pretty quickly but i think this thing what old people are doing i mean them in america the big thing with trump in 2016 was the old people with it today theyre not he says go out come to a rally go to the store and their doctors are telling them not to so the question is is this. Is there a long run change in behavior and if there is then the scope i think it will see fundamental change and that when youre holding you know youre zoomed tutorials at the present moment with a student of college what the question that theyre asking you about contemporary Economic Policy what was the thing theyre saying fess up blanchflower kenya can you tell us why this is happening or not happening well thats a great question i think i think the big question that theyre asking right now is what the heck is going all i mean how is this about anything given new ways of working out whats going on but especially whats coming i mean what the heck is coming i think thats what were trying to work on and thats hard but this is exciting times and hopefully hopefully this will actually prove to be positive but its hard to see that in the darkness of a storm professor David Blanchflower thank you again for joining me on the alexander. Thank you. Join us after the break well be telling the economic focus from their medical election to the next election shuttled in the u. K. For the Scottish Parliament and the National Assembly of wales join the same. The bill and those silly but the get a list of all of ill just. Keep coming i want to make i wonder why it was not a good. Look at. Clearly hoped to be but there were here are some friends of that the us are still so but theyre still hoping to do something to see if. They charge for. The value of the 1000 i think theres a whole lot thats also going in the most simple ill put them one of that kind of a look at that. I. Chose seems wrong on all levels just dont call. Me lol but you get to shape out these days to come out ahead and indeed from it because the trail. When so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. A dark industry comes to life in los angeles every night. Dozens of women sells their bodies on the streets many of them underage. Los Angeles Police reveal a taste of their daily challenge no if youre going to exploit our child here in los angeles there were going to have you see officers going undercover as sex workers and customers to fight the early sex trade. Welcome back the next election shadowed in the u. K. I dont scotland and wales next year the polls will be dominated by quick 1000 and its consequences the economic circumstances i like that to be dire but it is new thinking coming forward to meet the scale of the challenge alex is in conversation with former cabinet minister alex neil m. S. P. I love 7 in mcalpine today 2 of the scottish think tank called me to feel welcome to the shore our could robert lewis i know youre a former cabinet minister be it on the back benches know in the scots bob youve recently published an economic plan for the couple a there were clearly health of absence which is going to be accompanied by a huge economic about and say whats your plan consist of and whats the chances of it being brought forward into action. Well the 1st subject of alec is the major real survive through the pine dairy where the center vigils are businesses so the number one priority is an emergency funding for businesses and for individuals to make sure people dont end up and die a day as a result of the pandemic secondly they ended up plan to deal with the tsunami of unemployment that is very clearly coming through in scotland and indeed the rest in a decaying to wales and Northern Ireland as well as england and i think needs a number of things to happen number one we need to keep the Social Security improvements to make sure the spending goes in the economy local level secondly we need an Investment Program in infrastructure and thirdly we need a massive Investment Program also and business Business Investment ali need business infrastructure for the longer tim and i think if we do all of these things together. Then we have a good chance of minimizing the impact in terms of unemployment but also surviving the pandemic so weve got an economy to go back to once upon then excel over 7 copper in committing the think tank common weale which press publishes an oppressive range of policy is also subject to crises such as this actually provoke new thinking and tabs of economic and other policies well not street week one of the things i think were seeing at the moment as everybody fights the last war as we fight the last war were facing this is a normal crisis a normal economic problem and we try out for a while and then we discover its not working and that we start to move into a new economics and really feel im hoping is that we can move that process along as fast as we can not just in scotland globally we have to understand tools that we used to china deal with the truth in the name and financial crisis didnt really work then certainly not belong to them and were basically trying to. She used them again just now and it wouldnt be i fear and told me to realize thats not watching until someone says but hold on a 2nd what we can actually try whats going to actually work we will come out of this being with a very different economics than the ones that we were using when we went into it but the question is whether we are forced into a change or whether we recognize that change is coming out we recognize it sooner rather than later so rob a copy when you say you fight the last wall in economic terms of you saying that the long period of a static tape which followed the Great Recession of 2009 we had danger of another 10 years of a stab at the following the the great pandemic of 2020 this is not true 1009 this is much more like the brutally structuring their economies went through and the 1980 certainly in britain so its more fundamental than just were going to have a steady its going to be either in private Industry Sectors which we have assumed will always be weapons in the form in which they are what and theyre not going to be like that in the future and again the question is do we realise this change is coming and sheet or do we pretend this change isnt coming i mean funny when i write. If i thought i should put your finger on one aspect of the Recovery Program that you forward which can both be on the beach it at least palliative to the economic problems on bring about long term restructuring what would it be in your program theres a lot of mythology around the National Date of the deficit floatable seemed of the 2 julian day and national day it is actually owned by the bank of england i. E. By the government so the government can actually border a lot more to jumpstart the economy is serious to just survive will mean doing the capacity and at the end of the day is not being indian just not money. Never a mystery be that money has to be at sale and theres no chance of it causing inflation so theres more of motoring capacity and tens of printing money by the bank of england through various techniques and rob mcalpin a common weale. Fred much of the material is fascinating stuff but now is the thing time what chances of a few got of getting some of your ideas taken forward as policy i mean after all government understandably to some extent is totally a mess than the Health Crisis at the present moment very difficult to pick up some of the the blue sky thinking from common will support the chances of parts of your ideas coming forward as a program or i would really like to see happen as the concept of getting new dealing that could choose one radical thing to get going west its to see we dont really done a piece of work on how you read them you have to really need you for school and its actually the 1st and comprehensive cost of getting new deal anything in the world and one of the big problems is that it takes a while to get going so it takes the 40 years of lead time before you can actually really do anything which the fool parliament and we do this problem whereby the biggest barrier to it can you kill which people have got to understand is really just i think giving project and it was a lack of and people there was just wasnt enough people trained in the can a skill sets that we needed so well id really late the precious weve got this Human Capacity weve got this china Global Environmental need to do something you can do all of this and we switch highly enterprising create jobs and really really start to move forward both in terms of reindustrialization but also in terms of actually getting people into good wimpy jobs well we grasp this and see vision with some vision were going to go and do this theres no sign of that happening just a. And. Really is something that were going to look back orning see my god why didnt we do something 6 months ago or finally dies the elections next year and skull than they did in wales will they actually help some of this new thinking to come forward will they concentrate the minds of the election approaches on the various path is or will move the only show in tone really be over than the pandemic and squeeze out the the thinking for the future what do you think you have been for a few elections yourself absolutely i think theres going to be 3 issues all of which are complementary show that one is we are well out with a pandemic secondly how do you read deal with the huge backlog huge backlog in the National Health service that will be there by the end on the other one preaches of equal importance the other is how do we deal with the unemployment level and theres a tsunami well have fetters by a day in a nice for these things are all important because weve got to operate on all 3 fronts simultaneously and what i would do is i would run a training in Employment Law and scheme for small and medium sized businesses to get people into work and into cheating immediately and they would give a very heavy or longer term subsidy on wheaties and Training Course over the next 2 or 3 years so that you build that bridge between coming out of the pandemic and getting back into normal times and if you dont build the bridge the problems are going to go last before it can get better so those are going to be the 3 priorities and i think the elation both of the whales under the scotland is going to be determined largely by how people and the parties respond to the pandemic the n. E. A. Chased by the low the economy and in particular unemployment and business failure threw up in the cow fire in the common weal think tank independence a still the big fault line and scottish politics for. Lets just say for example that this got us conservatives gray opponents of independents will suddenly to say see that common weale we like one of the policies will adopt a program would would commonwealth camilla would that be something you would have brass ode to say. The way of conservatives banning gifts well absolutely work with anybody but i think youre right that the sleep problem weve go as that everything in scotland at the moment is still stuck with us and the paintings are not the fight because of this scale of this crisis because everyone realizes that some sort of bad guy actually is necessary and theres clear evidence in a number of Political Parties even the Scottish Labor Party is doing b r m poesy thinking nathan has been doing for ages theres lots happening in the greens they seem ps membership is talking about these issues all over the place just and so what im kind of hoping for is that i dont expect the Political Leadership to lead those and to write the play be used during this campaign but i think i actually think theres a large public appetite and a very strong unchaste at the grassroots of the previous Political Parties to see come on its time we did Something Different here some being in the wild some we are is going to be the country that gets it speaking about it to get some cuttings and get some breviary realizes the scale of what were going to do and is going to try something and that country whatever that country ends and years to come were going to talk about that country model is something mortal it was the country that didnt both let the country that the country didnt crawl into its cupboards and sam just see laced through everyone elses doing and someones going to get that right and historys going to remember that countries the country the late others towards that that age i passionately what should be scotland i have some main airports that it could possibly be wheels but if its not clear ill be appealing not nice to the base of the wont because somebody is going to say yes i faintly someones going to revisit this. And i continue to get this to someone who supported radek logic i am ready to be lead by anybody that loosely got a clue deal finally i dont know a passable not longstanding campaign of independence retiring at the election that should plan well youd be standing on the sidelines cheering on the independence cause will you be contributing to the debate that would be action to get back into the battle for any belief how are you going to translate from being a participant never the election to being a bystander well im standing down from the parliament but im not retiring how it a i intend to be very active in a whole range of things know at least campian in for independence because the pandemic i think has sure not why we need to be independent for example it did a lot better if we were able to stop at the local in a much much erlend we didnt we couldnt do that because we didnt have the control over the financial evils the things weve been talking about to date we can only do if youve got the pose of being an independent country so at the end of the d. V. D. Independence for me it remains the number one objective and a law will be in a different rule all still be working for independence well have a speedy Robin Mcalpine thank you so much for joining me on the alex aman show. Pleasure. Many governments particularly in the west are still struggling with the balance between the Health Consequences of suppressing corvet and the impact of the contagion itself over the course of this winter theyll be an increasing focus on the economy as a full impact of progressive love trains becomes a patent and the bills which have been accumulated come flooding through the fiscal later books the American Election will determine a great deal about the social direction of a deeply polarized society it is less clear that it will present a significant economic shift in direction the impact on the World Economy may have other lie in the approach of america to halt economic institutions and of course trade deals economic orthodoxy after the Great Depression of the 1930 s. Meant that it took a looming world war to direct the leading economies back to full capacity similarly after the Great Recession of 2009 overcautious Economic Policy produced a decade of a steady and falling Living Standards in many large countries however tough times certainly provoke new thinking and economies large and small the question is how quickly does creative thought translate into policy action the answer will determine locally and globally whether the world emerges blinking into postschool with sunlight or whether the blight of a pandemic is are placed by a prolonged economic darkness but for now for myself alex and all that issue its good bye stacey and we look forward to seeing you all again next week. Give me too much. But im also the most companies you know ive been a kid who says you know. This company. Came in nobody goes from didnt you know just to see you just pull you through. Them and im going. To see. You kind of these. Things they. Come to you in this to. Play high and low poker thats the low here and the high end. So weve got a situation in the Global Economy right now where in the currency markets various countries are trying to win with the worst possible hand. 6 years off to their mates 17 tragedy russia pulls out of what it points to investigation consultations. Crying out for how to walk because in frog stage a protest over a locker room full says they say if you dont need to twist the facts to fight. The president theres a new obama today in the bottle again. 2 strikes obliterating everything in the fuel to the benches and one of the domes has been completely just
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.