Transcripts For RT Boom Bust 20240712

Years. On people still die i dont know which question are still alive arent being allowed to live where so many have. This is boom bust the one business so you cant afford to miss im sorry monteith aopa in washington coming up the Labor Department reported a steady fall from the week before on jobless claims but still higher than expected well thats because what this means for the overall economy and market. To u. S. Companies may be closer to finishing the deal for tech top but out trump and ministration may just have to wait for china to give the ok well get the latest from the dean of the Miami Harvard Business School and we have a lot to get here so lets get started. We begin with the unemployment numbers as weekly jobless claims took an unexpected turn for the worse for the week ending on september 19th Labor Department reported 870000 americans filed for unemployment thats up from the week prior with 866000 the Labor Department remains stuck at a pretty high level here still above their peak 65065000 during the Great Recession that was between 20072009 the data comes as u. S. Lawmakers still havent come to an agreement on a new round of stimulus something the Federal Reserve argues is needed for economic recovery earlier this week Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell and u. S. Treasury secretary Stephen Newton well they expressed concerns over more need for aid. Password will depend on keeping the virus under control and on policy all see actions taken at all levels of government we continue to work with congress on a bipartisan basis to pass a face for Relief Program i believe a targeted package is still needed and the administration is ready to reach a bipartisan agreement. Joining me now to discuss bill must cohost christi i am the c. E. O. Of open eyes Alfie Octavia lets start with you the number of 1st time fliers for Unemployment Benefits they continue to creep up are coming in higher than expected is this concerning that the market has plateaued as demand is not improving or are we looking at persistently high levels of unemployment here now that so many Small Businesses have permanently shut down. Well i think theres a couple factors at work here one is obviously what you mentioned a lot of the businesses closing the economy being in real trouble in many sectors a lot of sectors of actually done ok in recent months so if you look at things like restaurants and retailing those seem to be large recover that doesnt mean there are other sectors Like Airlines and travel and movie theaters and things that sort but are still doing really really badly so that speaks directly from economic shock to them and ongoing effects of code that i think is another factor at work as well though and that is the fact that for Unemployment Benefits a large expanded during this downturn during that for obvious reasons as well and its only when that happens it makes it very difficult to compare the unemployment numbers. Because were looking very Different Things so you have to ask yourself if you have the same as youve been as youve unemployment before and the same kind of benefits what kind of claims for unemployment would we have seen in the car course odds that question but it is clear much much higher so make the comparison very very difficult but so as long as you have those Union Eligible if the requirements and larger payouts and the covert partial shutdowns of this were going to carol see higher and. Has come through so that its not going to change anytime soon i think as long as this situation goes on will concurrency well especially of these sectors are already struggling and looks like a lot of these employees arent coming back and theyre theyre having more and more layoffs kristie lets talk about the economist Stephen Roach who is issuing this terrifying warning 3 iterating his thesis of the u. S. Dollar plunging 35 percent and puts the probability of a u. S. Double dip recession above 50 percent what is he seeing. So yes we did touch on this previously he issued this warning that the u. S. D. Will plunge a few months back and now hes actually moving up his timeline and expects this collapse to happen by the end of 2021 rather than in 2 years as previously projected so in explaining his outlook roach pointed to the awful 2nd quarter data like you know the one that got basically rushed off because it was bad but not as bad as expected in the market just kind of shrugged it up and kept on rallying up led by tech so the current account deficit in the us which is the broadest measure of our International Trade imbalance with the rest of world that suffered a record deterioration and then the Net National Savings rate which is the sum of the savings of individuals businesses governments that also reported the decline in the 2nd quarter going back into negative territory for the 1st time since the Global Financial crisis so now you basically have no savings but you also want to grow so we run this current account deficits to borrow surplus savings and that always pushes the currencies lower the dollar even as a reserve currency is not immune to that adjustment so now on top of that you also have the risk of a double dip recession increasing as we enter the flu season and there is no more support after the cares act expired on the horizon and roche notes that there have been double dips in 8 out of the last 11 Business Cycle recoveries so it actually happens more often than not so the chances of a double dip expression if we dont receive our stimulus quickly is quite high without more. Stimulus and a possible resurgence of chronic iris cases like you said coming this this flu season and you mention the cares act of tabio congress has yet to agree on a 2nd stimulus package and even the skinny on a virus relief bill it failed to get passed 13000000. 00 americans are unemployed thousands of businesses have actually permanently closed billionaire investor mark cuban hes been very vocal about this additional stimulus needed and is even proposing that every household in america they should receive a 1000. 00 every 2 weeks for the next 2 months does his plan sound feasible or do you think well get any additional stimulus by the end of this year. This plan sounds in time infusing a keynesian framework i dont know where the lists are actually trying to that if that really works for years which work are supposed to have the best performing the commune the world stage it doesnt seem to work so well and you have to asses all why a 1000. 00 every 2 weeks for 2 months i mean those mice numbers are my lucky my favorite numbers a 1000 now if that works so why stop at a 1000 why not go to 5000. 00 why not go 220000 when i give you a 1000000. 00 every week i think we know exactly where they go this is a suggestion that im a small scale so these things tend to not work. Time and time again people subscribe to i dont think theres much evidence that they were the last loser to rush we were actually so i dont think that if you will those who were against it because most people do subscribe to that point of view so in terms of congress it looks like basically until the election things are kind of stark i think the democrats are very unlikely to pass any sort of relief package at this stage that might help donald trump and so theyre sort of a standstill. Gridlock but i dont necessarily think thats a bad thing for the economy overall i think because when you sort of jocks adoption the faster it can do the best. The government stimulus an interference with might actually slow that process down and it just might but. So the millions of people that are without jobs and and yes getting some of that extended unemployment however there are so many new ones new americans are just planning or actually applying for these jobless claims as we saw the numbers still close to a 1000000 now kristie even as a market regains its footing from several days of hard selling gold to the traditional safety net now its not doing well either is the gold bull actually dead. No i dont think the bull run in but it did fall quite hard to do support level at the 1800. 00 to now 2 month low so the support line is broken which is concerning but i think it is far from being completely dead because for gold to be actually dead you actually have to believe that the fed is going to tighten Monetary Policy and the dollar is going to remain strong something that we just talked about is not the case and the big selloff that we just witnessed in Precious Metals and stocks was in part because the fed didnt promise more stimulus during the September Sea meeting so ok they reiterated their stance and commitment to extraordinary Monetary Policy but theyve been saying that there hasnt been anything extra theyve already warm allies that by the market and the market wanted something extra they didnt get that so the market back up and threw a temper tantrum so in the long run both gold and gold assets things such as are going to catch a major tailwind because the fed already committed to maintaining q yet current levels that support for gold the fed is printing money at record pace and now the money supply has increased at record levels for 5 straight months thats very bullish for gold so to believe the gold bull run is over you have to believe that the fed is completely done with stimulus something that as you just said drawn pollen capitol hill is already pushing for more pushing for more but will they get to more using by the end of this year. I dont think by the end of this year but the fed also has other has other tricks as pocket you know theyve been saying they have other tools up their sleeve that theyre trying to keep in the back pocket to see around that time a tabio what do you think will the Federal Reserve make another move. I think for them as much of this not as they possibly can so i wouldnt expect them to expand even further unless we see a quite severe correction the markets if the market comes down 1520 percent then i think drone power will jump back into action and start printing more money to support that market but i think absent that kind of correction its probably going to lie low for a bit and just as christie said just. Saying were going to stay the course im going to stay close to 0 percent Interest Rates for as far as i can see we can actually push Interest Rates a bit lower as weve seen in europe in which push it into negative territory if you think thats going to help so we there is certainly president of the markets that we can see that happen in the u. S. As well and that will be no surprise if we see that the west coast kristie i end up having a randy c. E. O. Of open eyes ill see thank you both for breaking this down for us. And. The last Clinical Trial of astra zeneca is covert 1000. 00 vaccine army is on hold while the drug maker partnered with Oxford University to conduct its base 3 trials which was paused after a u. K. Recipient fell ill nearly 3 weeks ago the drug maker is still waiting for federal approval to resume u. S. Clinical trials astra zeneca c. E. O. Pascoe sorriest said we are the sponsor of the u. S. Study we then provided all this information to the f. D. A. And we are waiting to hear their decision meanwhile us leaving Infectious Disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci told congress he and his team are cautiously optimistic that there will be a vaccine widely available by spring of 2021 were not going to have all of the doses available for example by the end of december they will be rolling in as the months go by and by the time you get to maybe the 3rd or 4th month of the 2021 then youll have doses for every one of. Us firm is now facing millions of dollars in fines after it was caught bribing officials in brazil venezuela and ecuador over the last decade all this as the u. S. Ramps up sanctions targeting venezuela and some of its closest allies our rachel lemon joins me now to discuss rachel what do we know about this company and the deals that its actually being accused of well there are a lot of serious claims of corruption here and its all surrounding this asphalt making company out of florida called sergeant Marine Incorporated now the reason that were talking about this case right now is because the department of justice has actually released new details after the company agreed to a plea deal so we now know that they stand accused of paying millions of dollars in bribes to government officials in brazil venezuela and ecuador to win contracts from state controlled Oil Companies in those countries so as a result now Sergeant Ryan incorporated has agreed to pay 16600000. 00 after its estimated that they made around 38000000. 00 from those deals big. 2010 and 2018 so were talking about nearly a decade of corruption here from Just One Company rachel what do we actually know about these these 3 countries that were targeted by these deals well if you look at the list we have 3 countries that at the time that these deals were played out they all had governments that the u. S. Government was opposed to now since then ecuador and brazil have both sworn in new leaders that the u. S. Highly approves of but venezuela has not has what weve seen as weve seen the u. S. Government continue to ramp up this campaign against venezuela calling for the overthrow of president Nicolas Maduro ramping up saying shouldnt and theyre even still doing that this week President Trump announced new measures targeting not only venezuela but also its close allies cuba and nicaragua simply for the fact that he said their governments did not align and were not doing enough to partner with the United States. Well this week the United States also targeted iran with new sanctions whats the latest there what do we know i was right we had even more sanctions and you know when you think about iran and venezuela you see these 2 countries that have been targeted very heavily by the United States government in recent years especially as were now dealing with a Global Pandemic so this year what weve seen happen is that are wrong has come along theyve sent tankers with supplies to venice weyler so that they were able to help them refine their crude oil and then theyve helped even more by taking the oil and then exporting it and you may think that this is a great plan for these 2 countries that have been hit incredibly hard by the United States was saying shows but of course the u. S. Government did not like that either as of a came along and added even more measures to iran and venezuela this week especially saying that because those 2 countries had found ways to undermine the old measures and get some new sanctions more sanctions theyre looking for alternative ways because theyve been hurt so badly not just from the sanctions but obviously covert 19 as its become a Global Economic issue theyre trying to come together and at least what they think will help their countries arties Rachel Blevins correspondent thank you so much for for that report think it. Time now for a quick break but stay here because when we return 2 u. S. Companies may be closer to finishing the deal for ticktock and other trouble ministration may just have to wait for china to give the ok as we go to break here the numbers are because. I. I. So what weve got to do is identify the threats that we have its crazy. Let it be an arms race is also a spear in Dramatic Development only. Are the. See how that strategy will be successful very critical time time to sit down and talk. Its going to be hard to reclaim freedom and were going to have to work at it but as people recognize from examples like. What repression Digital Systems need to. Buy i hope people will start fighting. Saying we wont tolerate systems. Streets in our homes that cant possibly track what were doing. Time of the time corporations repeat the same mantra sustainability its very important. Transitions to sustainable transport sustainability. The more equitable and sustainable world. They claim their production is completely hamas. Because. Companies want us to feel good about buying their products while the damage is being done far away and this is a this was going to. Use them we didnt. Understand so when. A coalition of apple critics are forming an alliance to pressure apple and other operators to change my. Place rules the coalition for fairness laid out 10 outs or principles which include fighting against paying unfair reasonable or discriminatory fees or revenue shares typically charges a commission of 15. 00 or 30 percent for apps using in its Payment System but just to give you an idea in a statement the group said the gatekeeper platforms that operate these stores must not abuse the control they enjoy and must adhere to oversight to ensure their behaviors promote a competitive market and provide consumers with equitable choice the Group Includes some pretty big names including Spotify Group inc and fortnight creator of big games. Tick tocks Parent Company bike dance has taken another step forward to creating a new company by the name of talk lobel this is the company that will be partly owned by by chance and partly owned by u. S. Companies or will and walmart now by chance has officially submitted its application to Chinas Ministry of commerce for a Technology Export license that license will ultimately determine whether or not this deal goes forward from the chinese side joining us now to discuss our boom bust cohost and investigative journalist been swan and john dean of the miami school of business ben lets start with you why is this export license such a big deal. Well its a big deal because essentially it was only a couple of weeks ago that china revised its rules for what kind of Technology Required licensing in order to be sold by the Chinese Government and beijing would have to sign off on these cells essentially the laws were kind of re. I was a written but they were really tailored in this case specifically towards ticktock now it would involve other technology as well but were talking about any kind of technology that has algorithms built into it Voice Recognition any kind of facial recognition essentially everything that would power the algorithms for to talk are included in this so what the chinese have done is they set themselves up in a position where they say if youre going to sell we have to give final approval on it you cant do it without us that takes about 30 days for this process to run its course even though that application has been received but well see if the chinese sign off on it i dont necessarily see them doing it well and good quality we know that on the chinese side this license will determine again whether the deal can go forward do you believe the chinese will sign off weve heard a few days ago that the chinese side said that it was reasonable later they said that they werent going to approve the deal whats going on. Well 1st of all its a bit of a difficult question as to what the deal actually is because on the one hand weve heard that oracle and walmart will take 20 percent of the new company take talk global and. Buy daunce will retain 80 percent of the company but this is contradicted by a statement that oracle issued to the effect the americans would control the majority of the new company and then in addition to that theres some ambiguity in fact considerable ambiguity around whether or not the operational control of the. Top global assets will be with the new. Company or will or will remain with by daunce and whether the new company will have more than simply Data Management responsibilities and privileges so theres a lot yet to on ravel in terms of the different statements where hearing about what the content of the deal is so as it stands at the moment absolute little bit difficult to say whether or not the chinese will or will not accept the deal because were still in the negotiating period remember that President Trump issued the order on aug 14th regarding take talk and the order has a 90 day fuse on it where about half way through the 90 days so i think were still in the jockeying for position stage of the overall negotiation so this could technically go until the last minute the deadline of november essentially by election which i would think trump would want to try to push before then especially this whole ownership thing we were understand where the United States and where he has made it vocal he wants. To have 0 ownership so again that ownership much like you explained is very confusing and all depends on what that contract says but the Chinese Government theyre calling this deal to sell to oracle and walmart bulling and extortion is there an upside for beijing and approving this deal at all. Im not sure that there really is you know the Chinese State media seems to be indicating that theres no upside for beijing to do this in that i think about what dean was just said for a minute though he was basically pointing out a real truth here either oracle walmart and by dance are lying about the agreement that they have they dont actually have an agreement or they really dont have an agreement and theyre all just trying to scramble and figure one out before the clock runs out either way its very unclear what the deal is and heres the big question for beijing why. Why would china agree under any circumstances to let this deal go forward if the deal goes forward then walmart and oracle take a big chunk of tick tock why would that matter to the Chinese Government why would they care if to talk exists in the United States however there is an upside if donald trump is reelected to this prolonged back and forth between china and the u. S. To allow u. S. Consumers who want chinese products like to talk to be angered by the fact that they now lose out on something if if china just signs over to talk and allows it to be sold into this new this new to talk global ultimately trump wins because he says look i was able to get this for an American Company and the chinese have basically given up an asset that whether theyre actually collecting data or not theres no upside for them to let it go but there might be an upside to saying arguing 3 that your president took away something that you actually liked all those you know 14 to 26 year olds who are on sector especially because its become so popular here in the United States and during at coronavirus in quotes by putting tech talk into the hands of the Chinese Government does that leave a downside for the u. S. In the event that take talk is banned it seems like the time the ministration is really just trying to get the deal in order much like ben said to claim the w. Take the one. Well this issue has become a cause celeb or in the Chinese Media its become a national patrie audit issue defense of tech talk and so very difficult i think for the Chinese Government to agree to a deal that in some way gives up Chinese Technology but what could possibly happen where there could be a solution is in the licensing arena in other words if theres a mechanism. Whereby chick talk us. Its 100000000 users data the licensing of the chick Talk Technology to walmart and oracle to. Execute that technology in the u. S. Market and for that data or that is generated by the 100000000 followers of take talk to be protected that is where i think the potential solution lies but i think this is not frankly a particularly big issue in the overall china u. S. Relationship unlikely to be of great importance if it solved or not solved before the election its not and its funny that they in the United States have given it this much to important both china and the u. S. And this tit for tat now its about tick tock then say china did have access to the data say that they actually do if it is sold to the u. S. What makes a difference if they already have that data. Well i dont really know what the u. S. Is thinking that china is doing with this data that makes it a National Security issue that by the way facebook and instagram are doing with their data that does not make it a National Security issue i understand that china as a as a nation state is different than a tech company but im not sure its more dangerous than a tech company to be able to hold and retain that data but theres Something Else thats important here they didnt quote is right when he says that ultimately this isnt a big deal but its a big deal in terms of american usage in that when y. Way was going on most americans didnt use what we products this is a product americans use and so it affects more people in terms of the overall p. R. Of a very good point made boom bust cohost been so on and doing it john quality of Miami Harvard Business School thank you both so much for your time today thank you. Thats all for now catch him bust on demand on the brand new portable to the app available on your apple and Android Devices or simply check it out at portal dot t. V. The next time. As a culture war consumes american politics during this election cycle the economy remains in a big serious state millions of people live on the margins the only constant for them is insecurity economists debate and eventual recovery they speak of the u. Of the end of no but is the reality the changing. Moment on. Wall street financial engineers make up the crowds divert the money printing into their pockets at a rate that according to the Rand Corporation equals more than 50. 00 trillion dollars so that is your god thats why we have social unrest thats why we have incredible wealth and income gap thats why we have such a distorted economy thats why wages are not keeping up thats why weve got inflation raging. In the story. We are segregated only by social class. People also in poverty. If youre born into a poor family youre born into a minority family if youre born into a family that only has a single parent that really constrains your life chances people die. If youre born into generational poverty. Its a tough fight every day so you meet your needs and the needs of your family. In the headlines is 25th of september france registers a new daily. The number of cases policy is 16000 of the last 24 hours for the governments fresh antivirus most provoking i. Mean trial and error you pay volunteers could soon be deliberately infected with the worlds 1st Human Vaccine trials of the. Ethical. Away from covert other headlines major world because of falling a lawsuit against the trunk of ministration of what they wanted an unlimited war with china. To license to kill british spy might secure legal