Was an estimate and were going to write questions from family barns from Maggie Charity who say do you think a covered 1000 vaccine will be available so over to you christmas. I was speaking this week with one of Cambridge Universitys foremost experts on this gordon doogan who is a vaccine ologist is an Award Winning vaccine on the just and he has brought to the clinical coalface a number of vaccines over the course of his career and i asked him this very question last week and said with a fair wind behind it whats his most optimistic projection he said to me hes thinking realistically probably 2120 in 2021 june so it might be as long as 9 months to go yet the government themselves have said that we might see some vaccine available before christmas on a small scale basis this might be just part of a trial or whatever but really to scale this up to get it to the number of people who need it and do it in a safe way is still going to take quite a bit of time so thats why i think the projection of june 2021 is not unreasonable pressure government a lot of caught in the. Valor of the questions a boat vaccine but asking are in the case a lot of there are 450 people dying from cancer these day prior to the pardon debit quote of the predictions for the power to or the lack of screening and the inability to pursue as you would normally do. How long is the process of strain we are in a virus of the scale and and what implications does that have for for a vaccine or how does the the balance for the treatments of normally available there that chess with the concentration on finding a vaccine solution to the fundamental well taken up 1st question will broadly then there is no question at all that we are definitely seeing the Health Impacts broadly of the lockdown in teaching code and i was to speaking with my colleagues only recently were seeing people presenting at all motions you palms now we disseminated cancers of the past would have been treated will curable if picked up some months ago because theyve not been able to see their doctors or theyve not been able to get in the hospitals reset and another colleague entirely is of cancer is the same thing with. Getting overwhelmed with palliation now of people who otherwise might have been treatable so its a good point we must remember that whilst we are all trying to save the lives of coated patients there really is a genuine big impact going on in the general population with treat diseases such as cancer theres a not getting treated that is a balance that we do have to address on the issue of the mutation viruses all mutate in fact will genomes new to it we know that there are vast numbers of minor variations in this virus the ready the one that was most dominant was known as a g d change its one of my no acid in the spike protein a protein uses to attach to cells and the one thats now dominant is not the one that came originally out of hand it seems as if this g. Variant is a little bit more infectious it gave it just enough of an edge to become the dominant form so my guess is yes it will mutate it will change in an activity possibly in its severity over time its hard to know at what point if and when that just changes the efficacy of a vaccine and crisper piro. Emailing him from the south africa he asked the question what is the rate of covered 1000. 00 mutations with other viable strains in the wild we have for example the famous in the one streams should we be watching with patient rate plus other novel protect new viral activity how long therefore with a vaccine remain effect of push push push it out of the better actually the biggest fly in the ointment is the fact that we dont make very long term immunity to coronaviruses if we compare this new coronavirus to the existing coronaviruses that just naturally circulates in humans there are 4 other coronaviruses that discourse cold like symptoms but one of them infects our cells in a very similar way to the new corona virus so we can use that as Something Like a proxy marker for whats likely to be the case with this new virus what we can. And do is knowing that these viruses might not drive a very powerful immune response when you catch them we can make sure our vaccines do and there are various ways to do that by adding chemicals called additive thems to the vaccine that give your immune system a kick up the backside so that you make a more profound response than the natural infection does hopefully conferring longer term protection but at the moment we just dont know where that brings us neatly on to the questions of treatment because poor fernandes writing in for from spain says why are most of the efforts and the Mainstream Media coverage she says are focused on finding a vaccine where we dont know anything of a little about other treatments and medicines every chance of finding an effect of. The bin that vances and interesting less the virus in the last 6 months or so there is good news on the treatment front and its a good news story that comes worldwide also particularly in Great Britain where our National Health service is very well integrated has a fantastic leadership in research and it allowed us to do some trials very quickly and very effectively with great power to try to find things that worked the 1st of those actually that really was much more generic around the world is we realized a lot of the severity of illness in the sudden deaths we saw in hospital releasing to blood clots that wasnt something we did a trial or we identified it very quickly and patients now were admitted to hospital will now be given much higher doses of blood thinning agents and they were before and now the patients we are seeing in hospital all get that routinely and were picking up clots much much earlier and that in itself is going to make a big difference the 2nd 2 studies how to Great Britain we have to run recovery in one called remap cap and they identify the same signal but low doses of steroids which are antiinflammatory drugs and a very very cheap make a very big difference they reduce death rates in intensive care admissions by around 30 percent and in medicine that is a really really big. Effect of any drug is cheap very safe to gave and highly effective and finally there was a study out of the United States with a trickle rendez of beer that shortens symptoms thats volatile over 4 days we dont have a really strong signal for mortality this in the n. H. S. At the moment most patients who are severely ill of getting both steroids thanks nothins and or hydrocortisone last rendez if again i think that with the answer calculation will make a difference now those platforms are still running in britain we fortunately had a big drop in admissions and actually though the downside is that its been we havent had enough patients to be able to start expanding our knowledge of whats afaik effective numbers are going back up again and those trials are still recruiting and there are other trials ongoing around the world that will produce new treatments so its a good news story in many ways weve got some big wins already and i think there will be more coming as these other trials particular probably their Knowledge Base numbers start reporting so down to the big question here then here if youre caught if you are lucky and fortunate enough to catch covered no. September 2020 as your chances of surviving it if you go into hospital much better than they were in february or march we dont know but i think that would be the case we set a new source signal over time during the 1st wave thats intensive care mortality fell as time progressed now that might part have been organizational because one we were swamped to the beginning and it was very difficult to manage just organizationally but actually we did learn a lot about for instance the use it and to try to get a certain did make a difference so yes i think from a trial date of mr woods to there will be a much aggressive chance of surviving if ones admitted to hospital or to an intensive care unit just for clarity that is not what is driving the reportedly quotes mortality rate case the moment this isnt because were better at treating it this is largely because the page were testing a lot of people infected are much lower risk these christmas. Regarding the tension between drug treatments and vaccines the other thing to bear in mind here is that prevention is always better than cure and what a vaccine offers us is the ability to defend ourselves not just today not tomorrow not next year but for years to come and as the World Health Organization of pointed out many times this is this problem is not going away any time soon theres at least 5 years of the present predicament to run and thereafter we fully anticipate this new coronavirus is going to settle down and become an endemic human infection is going to continue to circulate joining the other car dray of coronaviruses that cause seasonal infections in humans and therefore its likely we are going to need to prevent this sort of infection or at least the severe manifestations of it in at least a susceptible population all over the world in years to come and that means that having a vaccine that does that does that reliably and does that safely is a huge potential win and will enormously tipped the balance in our favor in the future while acute drugs for managing the crisis here now are very important and lots of investments going into trying to find them including cutting Edge Technologies im talking to colleagues who have got very clever ways of using Artificial Intelligence learning systems to look at how when viruses going to cells they change the spectrum of genes that are turned on and turned off in a cell and they can marry that pattern up with the changes that different drugs produce and theyre using the argument well if a drug produces the mirror image changes in the gene profile in a cell that the virus does perhaps that drug could interact with that virus and stop it growing so people are looking at enormous numbers of drugs that we already have on the shelves to see if they can see these sorts of matches and that will help us here now but one must never take your eye off the longer term because this problem is not going to go away and therefore having a long term solution. And that will work well before we get anyone in such extreme Health Conditions that theyre going to need help unfortunately im trying not trying to do our business you but you know thats going to be the really really critical thing here which is why investment in a vaccine is very important. Join us after the break alex asks our top experts what the future holds when will this contagion finally join us in. Delhi forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people. I robot must obey the orders given to by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the 1st law. We should be very careful about Artificial Intelligence at the point over the. Trust ever of the shia. Played on various shots and with Artificial Intelligence where some of the demons. A robot must protect its own existence was. Here segregated to anywhere by social class lower middle class people also in poverty by 1st place if youre born into a poor family if youre born into a minority family if youre born into a family that only has a single parent that really constrains your life chances people die on average 15 years old if youre born into generational poverty. Its a tough fight every day so you meet your needs and the needs of your family. Welcome back alex is in conversation with professor human dougherty chair of intensive care unit at University College london and dr chris smith for all the just id cambridge university. But it will have a lot of questions about immunity and scott want to know how many people dont have a complete immunity to disease so they can pretty soon as he dont know we dont know what community the community does exist and the state does exist im quite certain that this where how complete it is how long it lasted i dont know we do know that the current a virus does mount a significant to the response your body does defend itself and it does that in a couple of ways it makes these chemicals called antibodies which are proteins that jumps to the vowels and help your body attack that cell so if you want my guess my guess is that you do get some degree of affected immunity but quite at what level of antibodies you need and how long you see last i dont know the christmas j. T. Us just the direct question that has been alluded to after contracting covered 19 are we have mutant of the seas lots of people want to go thats of the question if you get it once can we get together you alluded to that earlier but you also said this disease could be endemic in the population what do you mean by that we dont know what proportion of people will have long term immunity having had natural infection with this corona virus and as we are beginning to see alarmingly there are people who were sufficiently ill with it the 1st time around to take them off to hospital they recovered but then they have been confirmed as catching it again and its not just that the virus looked in their body we can prove genetically that theyve been infected with a new strain of the virus or a new variant of the virus proving that the immunity that you make at least in some people is short lived now on the subject of pandemics versus epidemics and so at the moment this is a pandemic came from one corner of china as far as we know it has eclipsed the entire world and now were dealing with it but will it switch to become an endemic infection with. It probably will endemic means its effectively tied up bound up and circulating relentlessly within a population yes we think thats the case all the good examples of this h. I. V. Has caused a pandemic it came from one corner of africa it spread to involve the entire world its now endemic in the human race so thats a good example of a pandemic virus that was a newly emerging infection that then has become and in demick infection an endemic relentless problem in the human race so what last question for you both start with you. In this great struggle the mast and between the virus and the one on the science and medicine and the other whos going to come out the top. Weve got to remember that weve had 3 emerging diseases in only 17 years is partly due to the way we treat our Natural Environments and Animal Husbandry and so forth this wont be the last unless we start changing the way ben you behave there will be more of these and well go round this circle again and so its a cause why arms echoing what chris said earlier on prevention you know announce a prevention is worth a pound of cure lets not take a rocket ball lets start changing the way we treat our Natural Environment to try to stop these emergencies at the current quite so frequent and prevalent because 3 in 17 years is quite a lot. Less worth really the take home message is if we want to prevent this again we have to look beyond just how we cure the present problem but what the mechanism is of the present problem and the mechanism of fortune is is our fault and it is not a coincidence that these diseases are emerging from areas where there have been big population explosions history keeps repeating itself we saw the same thing happen with a bone in the air bone or outbreak of 2030 and 40 that occurred in parts of africa where theyve been a 500 percent increase in population so our target is to look at sustainability we absolutely have to look at making sure we exist sustainably and we have more respect for the Natural World and the animals in it to avoid these kind of jumps in future because otherwise its absolutely certain the viruses will win dr chris murphy professor of human government thank you so much for sharing your knowledge announcing of your questions thank you thank you. With the search for a vaccine still ongoing and treatment still developing it is Public Health initiatives which have taken the strain of vitus control alex asked the new president of the British Medical Association professor how did brains whether they knew to plant them can hold the bite is it baby and why some kind to say succeeded and why some i feeling. So are they joined from. Glasgow by professor hardy above as the newly elected president of the British Medical Association many congratulations holiday thank you very much for cough our 1st question from lily she says how long can that is some to mattick katty have coffee and spread this virus is that one of the big challenges of controlling coal that its simply part of says that pattern of spread of the virus the 14 days limit i think its probably not you know right definition no one knows if someone is he said to magic the walk in a boat never tested you dont know if theyve been spreading the virus but dont know why hes counsel is it or if youve been close to some point definitely has this or is it just so brazenly for 2 weeks and youre a straight face baby not at the time a skull and thinking of a skull in the specific he says how can we deal with if we cant control of bottles doesnt that mean continual cos infection yeah thats thats an issue that ive hared a number of debates about the paradigm republik we say that we really need to shut the bark or stop people from coming in and i know of the same it thats a relatively minor tribute to the strange weve got enough infectious people within our borders just to be and the way in which theyre behaving in terms of not socially distancing you know goods that pop in right into saying thats whats driving the increase in cases at the moment so yes it is an issue but its probably not be crime issue thats driving the crease in the number of cases just is strain within show as it takes a look at the kaiser says that shes very suspicious she says considering the history of man must have always been the controlling the man. Well be this as a possible that history is repeating in a sophisticated modern way to stop more control over all mankind suspicions justify how to i dont think so not unless of course and tangle is as be ages since Authority Government or whatever one of the things that each term out of this is rolling back the destruction of Natural Habitats their claim an emergency is a really serious Public Health issue for 7 my children and my grandchildren situation so this isnt after india should claw up by evil foreign governments not even the westminster government and what it has been a natural occurrence that you would expect when youre beginning to see an change in the way nature or the Human Interaction with nature is occurring one of us questions a very poignant one from louise hawke she says must contact us and handwashing could continue before now if its nothing homestay couldnt be lasting 2 years why would the elderly choose the existence of a helmet for the final year as part of a strayed off between the quality of life and the risk of catching this virus from the elderly i have a huge amount of sympathy with that rest of it but the fact is there were people we have it in and out of Nursing Homes in the rightly everyone is to be infected and the deaths of patients in Nursing Homes it was a originally suggested in the Scottish Parliament that this flu these these deaths were due to people with corona virus being sent to those Nursing Homes from acute hospitals right the data i see would suggest that it was mainly effected stock that were responsible for the transmission and Nursing Homes so the fact is that anyone going in or out of the snuffly rooms is likely to be a carrier. And then it will spread like wildfire and lots of people some who are not seeing their relatives are going to die so weve got to be very careful or go who said we need to continue to be that honey buns the nobody more experienced in Public Health and the what of the new yourself is that really possible to control a highly infectious virus with the pubs open havent the governments been killing us by suggesting that was possible. When we went no to 2 meters distance into one gas meter this that same i had to have a behavioral Scientists Say in your head 2 meters is a distance but one meter cyst late reaching youre touching someone and we see this i mean i i have not been a puppet this year and ive got no intentions of going into one but when you see people sitting outside 8 people sent for her leaning forward her head so close together theyre breathing droplets over her and i just dont think its possible to control the virus that is taking place the evidence is that in outward it is that had someone walked out over the past few weeks if it insists that rate of transmission slowing may have been so the fact that would be limited to the number of people you can have in your house and meetings and outside insulin is having a faint but it probably not having a faith foster half so well im very sad. I think were going to have to maybe not completely shot pops but were really going to have to have people behaving very different. Come Public Health measures of that the survive us bottom of control and doesnt the messaging have to be Crystal Clear yes said mrs james the messaging has to be 2 things that has to be very clear but has to be a consequence you know telling people that they are irresponsible idiots and so on is not a good way of persuading them to do the messaging that we had initially which is one which was behave in this way and it will be a good citizen helping you know other people sad kind of positivity were all in this together that how angry d sad having whoa next in the paul steiger a mormon so and. Its not helping your granny its not helping your fellow students its not helping you know mom and dad the whole if anything is going to kill them were already beginning to see increasing numbers of elderly people testing positive which was what we predicted 3 or 4 weeks ago so it has to be a message that says being a good citizen involves practice doing what the government is telling you and being sensible about it and finally had above this they look at internationally as i mean one thing from a Public Health perspective of all the countries experience of seeing that stood out for you you saw it and said right thats the way from a Public Health perspective to get the sort of virus under control you see would you know question new zealand where people grassed so they had to have a government who that was very honest west of the nuclear with them to begin with so i think new zealand and one of the 2 other places have been very successful in this and its all come from the finding that people who are and said were going to help each other over here 1st hot above us newly elected president of the British Medical Association thank you so much for joining me in the exam until its my pleasure. The virus is back the u. K. Threat level heightened and few western countries have been able to cope certainly not the u. K. Were locked into is now is very real possibility certainly not the us where deaths per 1000000 have this week overtaken the u. K. And certainly not in france where the oldest Holiday Season has come with a very high price there are countries which have been islands of success and many of them have indeed been islands however worldwide on Current Trends by the end of this week the mortality rate will approach 1000000 and by the end of the sheer the International Infection numbers will surpass 50000000 people today are 3 experts have given straight responses to some of the biggest questions and deploy them with profound commonsense their comments on the connection between the threat of new emerging viruses and the destruction of the Natural Environment and therefore the sustainability of the human condition were particularly pertinent whether that can be translated into a new and better policy direction remains to be seen but for night from alex myself and all that the shoe stay safe and hope to see you all again next week thank you ed. By social class. Poverty. If youre born into a poor family youre born into a minority family if youre born into a family that only has a single parent that really constrains your life chances people die. Generational poverty. Fight every day to meet your needs and the needs of your family. Is going to be hard to reclaim freedom and were going to have to work at it but people recognize from examples like. What Digital Systems need to. Hope people will start fighting. Saying we wont tolerate systems. Streets in our homes that cant possibly track what were doing. Russia says germany stalling the probe into the alleged poisoning of alexina valmy by holding back crucial data to the Global Chemical weapons watchdog talked. Through deliberately delaying the process be impeded the completion of the preliminary inquiry in russia that was held in order to ascertain whether there is an offense or not france has voiced their anger over the governments tough new coronavirus restrictions saying they were never consulted. On the pentagons accused of spending up to a 1000000000. 00 of coronavirus funds a military gear we gauge the public reaction. To the word story on its part of being american