Was changing out of toppled but if youre a new call island its predicating. Louis welcome to crossfire where all things are considered. Forced regime change planes and why it is not and will not work and there was also the number. Benefits from this very strange episode. You discuss this im joined by my guest Marcus Papadopoulos in london hes editor of politics 1st magazine and in budapest we cross to jordan samuel he is author of bombs through peace natos humanitarian war and yugoslavia are across up rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate when you let me start with georgia georgia lets start with the b. Everest story because the pira story looks like its kind of morphing into who the venezuelan story of the baltics ok because we have this pretend or recognize from. From lithuania i think it is this woman that they can all sky that she is the president in exile right now are they pulling a white 0 here because i seriously doubt this would be happening in my own peo had made a phone call go ahead george. Well they are trying to pull away though but of course the why dont case turned out to be a complete fiasco. And its clear that the Trump Administration isnt terribly happy with the policy that it got stuck with thanks to the pressure from former National Security advisor john bolton so i have my doubts that they go to political i go over this. Because if youre going to give them. Is notable for all the absence of pressure from the United States and i say that in actually taking a rather reckless an approach towards this and without pressure from the americans. I dont think this is going to go very far and i think its so theres already indications that look at shango feels very confident of himself and hes being his usual difficult self with with the russians feeling rather confident that the e. C. At the say you know mark is a i tend to agree with george and on top of it a look at shank i mean i made it very public particularly to to rushing to television stations that he isnt least rhetorically officially open to some kind of transition though within the bounds of russian law thats that indicates to me that hes learned the lesson that he can stay but he has to start thinking of an exit here what are your thoughts marcus lets see. How something over the last few weeks what we have to say here about very soon is an attempt by the west to. The west coast resolution v. S. E. Ease and his hands his crew against some of its presence and a use in the school is serious and a soul must say of course they were goes back to you know many song whos also. So you can color resolutions jujitsu falsehood and free ukraine seashells on and for a song 3 shells under fire and most recently of all ukraines few shells and full tank but these tendencies crew a better choice was always going to fail why because the well meaning were sure saved the belorussian population weve gotten cells as possible the russians well they see themselves as possibly lawson family secondly. We should quit more accurately. Ease the facts or province of the Russian Federation and we have seen that scene in recent times because the Russian Ministry in tandem with about russias military has announced c. You know who says poses wish polands ukraine and about 6 states to prevent infiltrates is from coming in for a necessary so on those countries and also Russian Special services working alongside Russian Special services have now identified this asian protocol consumers all the west in most notably of course. Now the real question is or should he not will see isnt always going to what was he going to succeed and you know what it has now done it is shredded for and russias position over shankara because i did not change litter same color then the unions say its all for gosh i. Wish rules which was formulated between yatsenyuk allocation time in the late 1990 s. Would have come into being by now but look ish and co has so we get a sense chris in case of the helmet russia resolution who wants to be a presence of the union sites now that looks shankar has low. Moderately and without precedent. For assistance in france and that now appears it shows in every leisure each so the kremlin to exercise for christianity so i actually believe peace that innocent person play for the west has actually placed an appearance will so while i believe the material i say shouldnt sooner go off and lay some of the union sites well george but thats the fly in the ointment here i mean and its one of the things that i get very frustrated with looking at the west your narrative there was because its not about lucas its about the place that we know is be a ruse bail russia and its relationship with russia and as mark was quite correctly and in great detail i discuss this is a this is a single state ok at this point here and the problem has been is that its been looked at shank unwilling to implement every single phase in stage of that that he signed up to and so good this is the this is the unreported narrative that whats going on in india rules because its it is kind of a lucas ngo problem but for very Different Reasons go ahead yes that is right. There the policy before the election which was a hit by the e. U. And the United States was to try to foster as Much Division between. Belarus and russia as possible and that made a certain amount of geo strategic sense whatever it is makes life difficult for the russians nato the United States regards as a good thing buton as many headaches thats possible but by overplaying their hand in belarus as moch as its quite rightly point out. They have now strengthened the the bond between russia and belarus and youre getting them. Pression now that the europeans are sensing the food of their policy and have trying to draw back because i do think its striking that the whole of this propaganda to have. You come off and having all these attractive women around and over the propaganda to try to get oh this is the belarus that we want to recognize this is a legitimate government of belarus thats failed thats thats gone nowhere so it looks to me like we may be heading to was the preelection policy of well lets try to foster division but i think thats extremely unlikely to fail i think that i think that a train that left the station speaking about division and mean if you look at the reaction of the European UnionMember States its the whole quite go scenario is its really been given a Cold Shoulder because you know were not going to go through this again i think we also have to point out is that the European Union as a whole has ukraine i mean look at what the resources and. And time they put into ukraine and well they kind of got a you know a milk toast version of what they wanted ok because. The fundamental reforms that ukraine needs is not happening right now and again just the the billions and billions of euros that went nowhere i personally think and get so marcus on was how much do you think that plays into this kind of a. Need some part of the europeans about this regime change playbook. Well here again is huge is nationally i was rifle so you know i says psychics and Economic Times but also malaysia the European Union is a strategic friends and i so you know i have to say this in days we can science that russians and takes us im sure to some ounce will influence the e. U. Policy by can i use science to begin. Nazi files and full saying when america place sanctions on the Russian Federation because of the crisis in ukraine which incidentally america responsible for the European Union. By germany was very apprehensive about wanting to place sanctions on that russia they did resist but in the end of the year being union it caved into the pressure to phone the United States and i think if we fast forward to 2020 what weve seen in recent times. Yes the European Union has says he player go in that its simply the case that whole and in the 06 states which are very dangerous countries for russian National Security how to actually facilitate its. Tenets its career in the country but i think olson italy the hand of washington is responsible for what we have seen in belarus and i think the americans are actually emboldened by that its high up in ukraine because yes ross analysis the money cant be cold its ukraine and loss i mean ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the us and and it has been ever since it came independence in late 990 but nonetheless ukraine as we talk now is integrating if the west has ukraine is the greatest. Policy challenge to the kremlin so i think the americans have the same bones and by their success in ukraine they obviously did not do their homework so sufficient enough to understand that belarus is not you try and have better risk as i said the facts are a province of the Russian Federation or you can put it is a russian protectorates in her truck market is that it washington doesnt do its own mortgage they thats kind of an understatement because they screw up every step of the way here i think youre right marcus i mean you know washington is in bold but i think in bold in the sets. Then you can quit it created a quagmire ok were 8 if you know russia has to take the burden here if its not a success and the nominal way its like oh he screwed up that neighborhood it makes the neighborhood unstable thats a victory for us which is a very cynical Foreign Policy go ahead george yes now that youve hit the nail on the head that peter thats exactly what the american think and its. Not. So the way goes by the us the americans are saying well its a challenge because its a headache for the europeans because its right there on the border its a headache for the russians. And so therefore up and back and say yeah ok you know whats the solution more america because others say shows that the europeans are unable sort out their own problems so he was its the same you know you see the same scenario played out in iraq and syria and libya say ok if the oh i had a not out. But it is true is that they knew it in all these cases you capture elites in specific countries ok and they even toward it within their own within their own country and then within the union youre ok gentlemen to jump in here were going to go to a short break and after that short break more discussion and some real news stay with arkie. For all the. Things. We do here to ask. A new gold rush is underway and going to thousands of ill equipped work goes off flocking to the gold fields hoping to strike it rich. Out of this that you know if i suppose that our children are torn between gold and education. Was very poor i thought i was doing my best get back to school which side will have the strongest appeal. Join me every thursday on the alex salmond show and ill be speaking to us of the world of politics or business im show business ill see you then. Welcome back to crossed up work all Things Considered im peter lubell remind you were discussing some real names. Marcus goes to switch gears and talk about the strange case of natalee meaning the more we learn or dont learn about this the story here about the alleged poisoning of mr noel me which is seen in the west as kind of the leader of the russian opposition to the political status quo i would like to preface by before i ask question is that he hardly has much of a following in russia which you know of course western media would not tell their their audience as you know but it seems to be you know who are you who do you want to believe and i think this is where lee what what the the origins of this strange case is about who are you going to believe the russian said that this gentleman left the country with no indication that he had been poisoned and then german Officials Say just the opposite but at the same time not releasing to the public what kind of them from nightmare information they have that would prove that allegation so its kind of a political football and its really more about Something Else but i want you to react so far. Oh firstly haste and there is no political reason for the kremlin to syria or want to assassinate around i why because its not how they stand in a Russian Society is absolutely necessary i dont shine its all Russian Society there is a luxury in alexina found it because he has to say by putin every russian man and woman as being a fool is cullen all of the United States or someone who wants to return to how it was during the 19th nineties by which i mean in city americans so he has no sand in will so if amongst ordinary russians secondly there is not an economic reason for the trouble its also assassinate no valley because that was in necessarily jeopardize nor straight and the russians do not want anything to affect the notary why because a new strange constant shes a very significant source of revenue for the russian governments friendly you dont have to be a scientist to understand that if someone nice poisons waited for a nerve agent for example not a shock and especially in the confines of an aircraft then people who are around the person who is being poisoned on actually current city contaminated yes in the case and not passengers adjacent to him not carrying troops not the people who treated him well contaminates its treat it differently had attended to it so you assassinate about it why own pace or would they have to laugh at a child journey knowing that this is a species hes a cad i suppose and so the americans without a leg he has been poisoned by the friendly it is absolutely prosperous nonsense there is no reason why the kremlin was once assassinated listen to our. Asked and on the whole i would say this to the germans if they are so sussan that newfound me was some of the senses is poisonous around me by using nothing short and cool to see the evidence of the germans to the kremlin wants us to not allow russian medical doctors and scientists to transition many of the German Authorities to share their medical and scientific findings with the russians is a simple as this statement if you have nothing to hide then you have no reasonable sense and all share your finds and with a posse i know that isis warriors senior dog city applications surrounds you know how he is possible possible all of our own going concern and Vicious Campaign against russia because russia is a superpower going to find out its the americans and the british lower you know real george can he still script files because its been this way going all script files again ok now let a lot of transparency here but lets get to what i think this is all about and marcus is are meant to hear this in my opinion this is my my conjecture is that this is just this one final attempt to. Derail north st this is what this is really about ok and its putting the germans in a very hard place because Angela Merkel has made it very and shes on the way out if shes made it very care very clear during this entire process that this is an economic legal agreement that has nothing to do with politics she said that and she pushed it based on those 2 principles now and really whatever is behind this gambit here once the germans to break there were and break their agreements ok which you know i dont like the american civil do it in the drop of a hat the germans are feel very uncomfortable about that and i think this is i think the pressure is not on the russians pressure is on the germans right now george. Well yes and theres obviously a very Strong Division of opinion within germany you have the German Military and security establishment that is star really imbedded in atlanta so they close to the americans. Integrated within nato. And they have absolute every interest in trying to destroy this though its trying to deal however you also have the German Business Community that stands to make a lot of money on this and they say its important to remember this agreement this not stream to agreement was a German Initiative it was a Russian Initiative i mean was it was the journey had im like i yeah yeah exactly so the way its often presented in the media is as if somehow this is a favor for the russians knows the fate of the germans who have very Serious Problems with energy that made a complete mess of the end if you follow so and it is extremely expensive in germany so they really badly need this cheap source of natural gas so for the germans not a scrap this agreement would be a very devastating blow but the germans havent done what the british did over the script all of them of the british were very skilled at mounting a kind of Global Propaganda Campaign that went to the u. N. Security council and denounced the russians they organized this diplomatic expulsions and so on the germans havent done that its not maybe that the divisions are so deep in germany that are unable to do it maybe then the germans just simply are not convinced by the you know by the by the whole not only case but again its same with belarus its whats striking is the lack of the driving force as yet that took place of the script out that john is having yet mounted that kind of wild hysterical campaign that the british. It every day that the moment theyre losing the momentum if they if they dont continue or not and thats why i think that merkels pragmatism will come through shes going to say but this is just an economic i mean we havent even mentioned the consumers i mean thats a boon for german consumers as well ok since germany has moved away from coal and from nucular and marcus you know one part of the story when we look at north stream 2 is that why do we have these underground. Gas pipelines going through the baltic oh thats right because of what happened in ukraine ok i mean this is just so Foreign Policy chasing its tail ok you know it what with the the illegal overthrow of the government in 2014 is if it slipped. Craned strategic role in the Energy Equation of europe ok and so the russians said look you stop stealing it this is not for you and ukraine would use it as a political ploy to play everyone off against everyone and the germans the if the russians said no we dont need to play this game and your game ok its more washingtons game too and so we need to consider why these pipelines came into being in the 1st place because of the quagmire that was created in ukraine and it doesnt serve europes interest whatsoever go ahead marcus. I think we need to acknowledge festival that germany heavily depends on russia for natural gas for its economy of course its industry but also for the want in every german man and woman asked time and i believe 65 percent of germanys gas actually comes from russia so that is why germanys 3014. 00 was has a sense of place sanctions on the Russian Federation because it is certainly not in the interests of the German Economy for the city or russia in a coup you want ties between not in moscow and in 2020 it is not so in the interests all generally known string to be russias but of course the americans couldnt care less of an economy in fact there is quite a lot of safe they generally call many county because we widely shared the americans but i think russo as well the americans are acutely aware and so of course its the kremlin that the russian economy and slow process it is one of the largest in the quote is is not a die for us economy the russian they were russian economy is still overwhelmingly based on energy and defense exports and 10 states are at scotland no shame to that is the way of the americans not the germans the americans trying to weaken the russian economy and ultimately trying to assist a c. N. C. The americans know what the weaknesses of the russian economy assy american states and youre in the late seventys in the early 1980 s. The weaknesses of the soviet economy and supply one of the reasons why reagan mbox on a massive arms race was associated because he knew the soviet accountable either she knew much about politics in general the people around him year what weakness was the soviet union and i could green the so you. Union pausch and i stand by trying to stop hundreds shamed so this is about is the way of the americans trying to bring down the russian economy because they know the russian economy is still not i trust fund the American Economy or the british economy i am but at the end of the day george this is you know and i think you know this this incident has really put into stark relief the importance of europe do they want to have Energy Independence or not do they want to have a say in their rate in their Energy Sovereignty because it washington would love to have the europeans buy natural a little fight natural gas at astronomical prices ok when europe for the most part is living in austerity and you want to the whole point is to get Affordable Energy liquefied natural gas is a last 40 seconds go to the right so you get yet another price that the europeans have to pay for nato and the west the alliance youre going to have Expensive Energy use in your interest that cheap energy but you will have expensive to get just like ukraine youre going to have to have a refugee flows Economic Crises and so on thats thats your price still a loyalty to nato in the western alliance ok gentlemen thats all the time we have want to thank my guests and and budapest in london i want to thank our viewers for watching us here r. T. See you next time remember asa. When i was so simple wrong. Ill hold just dont hold. Me well want to see you have just come to cancel and its dangerous because the trail. When some people find themselves well so far away just on the common ground. Is your media a reflection of reality. In a world transformed. What will make you feel safe. Isolation or community. Are you going the right way or are you being led so. Direct. What is true what is faith. In the world corrupted you need to descend. To join us in the depths. Or a made in the shallowness. There is a ladder we found. In the desert when when somebody jumped over the wall the wall and then we. We flew from these waters jugs out there and these racist groups slice them open with knives its really sad and we find shotgun shells people shooting at the migrants. 20 years ago i started going out to the desert like were doing right now to bring water to people that are across the because the people there across you know across the rio all the way they damn