Care for dogs bred in commercial breeding for so many most of that opposition is coming from huge agricultural groups and industries that have nothing to do with dogs dont buy dog on a. Lawn welcome to so think of visionaries me Sophie Shevardnadze could 900 condemn a came as an external shock is unprecedented how can we navigate then certainty of the post condemning future to discuss this im joined by the author of best selling books the black Swan Antifragile and skin in the game guide that having 3 minute talk to for the past 3 months every scandalous Nassim Nicholas taleb. Yes im Nicholas Taleb risk analyst author of thought best selling books to black swan and 2 for a child skin in the game so great to have you with us is been 3 months im dreaming of talking to you and asking those questions so the day has come high. Well thank you. Very very rarely honor the restriction to. Write so nicholas at this Energy Online forum have talked about making societies more resilience to the future challenges without trying to protect them exactly but making sure well be ready for the unexpected i mean do you expect the call the crisis to be teaching us anything in that regard definitely but theres 2 central things i have to say the 1st one is that you dont have to be paranoid in general but a lot of things just have to be paranoid about small number of threats and the main one is. The pandemics and that makes all the methods people just worry about global. War or mobile already know the big think biggest threat we have has been that it will be a mix. And and and because of the structure of modern society germs can travel much faster so something i was saying of the century scribing the difference in structure between today and the past is you know the silk road is very interesting and brought a lot of merchandise but guess what came with the merchandise on both sides chirps ok but there were traveling the germs were traveling so 1st of all as a short i was actually going up for School Exemption from weve had merchandise moving without anybody on sally how k. From town to town to research all and byron back and forth and horses travelling for you know its real drama days anyway but the lets say its mobilization you get germs with it. But at the time. It took a long time. You know it took a long time to in fact they did. Train in Northern Europe and was that not the middle east took a locked up for the people to be in fact that the day you can set up a conference and secure a town really see one of my favorite cities conference there 30000 specialists i dont know what say the. Lungs are it or something more boring say a liver liver specialist ok come in from all around the world so people come from its going to stand. Cincinnati they go they mingle. And guess what they go back home for those later and 2 weeks later the starts to spread their own to become super says super spreader thats we had many more suppressed president s today so. The good news is that now we understand the problem. And the pandemic we had was not very severe it was a small thing is here could have been a lot worse but it was not it was you know small thing it was not some small but im saying you can bet a lot worse could have been like something of the order of smallpox or. Something similar or some other bacteria thats antibiotic resistant so we have now we live we have an awareness of it and the idea of any official theory is that every time a plane crashes the next plane ride you know would be safer to say the system learns from stakes and improves based on mistakes that is a good system so the world will be different wiser and then people now but hopefully its good for peace because people understand the moral that the enemy is not some person with weapons the enemy of the thing you dont see. The little germ. Pencil test the enemy now you know. All these the military threats are a say because the world this from place and then now people are aware of it but will they really be smarter you think because like im looking back at sars outbreak and had we paid more attention to it and got in the back seen back then and being so much easier to get the vaccine done for calling 1000 now it seems like we dont really learn that much from our mistakes do you really think its going to the vaccines are not the solution by the way this quarter connectivity is a solution because were still waiting for an issue of effects here so whatever whenever you discuss medical improvements. These take time take a lot of time. As our president can happen an unpredictable pace so if i say that the 188 start but serious 5 years 40 years ago ok. Treatments maybe no back seat so you can have more steady improvement and treatments we may have a max of extreme tomorrows like winning a lot lotto and investment and even then the next scene is may prove to be short term effect effects are assured you know not long term effect because of as a as you know you know things you state so i think a more robust world would be one in which we do business as usual but guess what be prepared for current times current pries are a lot cheaper to reduce mobility of the germs as a lot cheaper than having locked down. We spent trillions from you know lockdowns its vastly cheaper and so have some measures. So that when you talk about be prepared for current times and that will take care of everything in terms of connotative being the danger. Ok i get that but is this like a temporary saying are sure we stay in this sort of current time not forever can we ever somehow go back to the simplest werent fast travel hassle free boarders all that stuff you know you will have free mourners everything so long as people are prepared this there is an eruption of Something Like and i mean to ask Border Control to reduce connectivity because the jurors dont travel by phone they will try a long zoom they travel you see on air france and the aeroflot and on carriers so you want to use that and then and let me tell you again lets Say Something out saying that senator kerry as you look at history and the. Black thats the plague took place in a search and hundreds. Still have corn ties and 850. 00 and every ship at im talking about the psyche of the people that were prepared for it now sometimes maybe theyre lax about not using the lesser it goes with it but the people for actually 40 days of potatoes before releasing them but they had a system in place for 500 years. Dont stop you cannot go and i was saying you cannot go from me a plant buyer into the hops bird we are going to touch whether or not there was a pandemic they had the system now im not asking to i want that all the time but to have a plan in place to inforce 3 levels checked passengers. Test by sensors or contact bestsellers its a level 123 and still 00 most of the dive in till you have information and then you can act if you acted that way out of on we would have the problem. Oh it so heres the thing like in the beginning of the demick when it all started and we understood that it was global and he was irreversible everyone hysterically started remembering the notion of the black swan. And then it sort of got you knowing and you were saying this is really not a black swan its a white swan and then just the latest century a read of yours an International Business times are saying yeah actually it couldnt be a black swan is it is it because the pandemic itself the virus is self is not the black swan but the black swan is the handling of the aftermath basically no one has said this is a story so it will d call this a people. Handling it. My black swan i said its not the disease but the eros the lack of logical behavior on our people. Do not say no i did not are they so let me tell you why its not a black swan a black swan to something you dont see coming something that they have movies about how could it be a black swan so they had movies about 10 times in the black swan discuss going through the day and i say whoa because of the structure of the world. Expect to have maybe sure but that makes but deep are the ones that have the. Lets not trust medical knowledge too much because. It has improved for a lot of diseases but the diseases are smaller than most ok but whatever is happening now or not now that the disease is sort of. Going backwards but were left with economic consequences with fractured societies with minorities rebelling all over the world with with all the consequences that we have on our hands what i think you know is going to happen is a transformation of economic structures to accommodate. Potential pandemics even of the never happen again people to prepare for them like for example in the United States we have a migration out of new york city where you have a super spreader of i mean his subway so even if we control d this one and its gone and you have to worry and goodbye even if you control this one there will be. Paranoia about what could happen next so so we have a some People Living in new york plus theres another saying there is a structural permanent transformation in the way things are happening with academia and with offices that for the same reason were talking on zoom on the new studio now and seems to work ok its a salute dating thing that would have happened in a physical world we are learning to do things offline and these things are taken place you know in a remote. Enough light that i meant remote they think of taking place remotes are causing a gross of Economic Activity in some sectors so and so i think one of the transformation is a duchess and russia or country houses here are in demand people want to move there ok because you can do remote from there and once in a while go to the city as same time. Real estate is going to be depressed cities. Online shopping people learn to do Online Shopping its not as entertaining as going to the mall but you know having a house which means that malls are going to suffer big time everywhere. But also if you live in a remote place its good news for you because you may find an employer whos come to. They say for example now theres a crisis of love in all and people want to emigrate you know stay there or try to be hired remote somewhere its much easier is dont have a visa problem so it creates you know. Like people can travel without a visa holder a lot of the things like this always have been some other this transformation coming out of this coupled with some bad news for some industries. Businesses and of course to me its a bad news for for all this political. Geo political discourse because the enemy isnt some foreign country anywhere the enemy is a german now and we all face insane sure lets hope so lets hope so lets hope that well actually learn something or really draw a lesson out of it ok it doesnt take a short break right now when were back well continue talking to the author of best selling books the black Swan Antifragile skin a game risk analyst Nassim Nicholas taleb dont go away. How can you explain love ive been to 82 countries i did in 12 but i came here and i know 3 days i just felt at home. And he kept pretty isnt it sick show. I made my decision to come here because d i felt and you i could build a new life here. You know if you companies and. I was a prima but i think god decided that this money is not going to be free while prostyle if it were only a good hit t. V. Series. Where my one dream is that all my children d find the same kind of happiness i do. I love my home i love cold weather i like the cultural like the history i like everything about it. And i dont i know that i. Am a russian pharma. And were back with author of best selling books the blacks wanting to fragile skin in a game of risk analyst Nassim Nicholas taleb nicholas anti fragility is achieved by decentralization you say propping up the capitalism local governments printing huge monopolies from forming strengthening links in the chain so that are servants to fall is not a problem for the future do you see anyone in the world now going down that road i mean is anyone actually doing that so let me explain what has happened if you see the reaction to the virus the lower the units in the scale the more responsible its like the city of atlanta also met it masks much smarter than the state of georgia. So if you look at the charbonneau of the Central Government so what happened at the bottom up process. Works fine for the and the mic because in their own sauce or you know after the black that you have the renaissance downs were closing by themselves the minute there was a strat solo and those those who are paranoid enough to close early or escape most of black this and the other subsequent diseases that they had that came later you know them shut down the town you cant go and you got to go up or you can go out you cant go back and so so my idea is the higher you go in the organization the worst so what is on top the most incompetent organization in history is a World Health Organization the most incompetent egger they could not understand masks that masks are symmetric like if i wear a mask they said well theres no evidence this is cool naive evidence of it back then was it and i will publish some scientific papers explaining their own stand the military they use is mathematics thats 100 years old or it doesnt matter and their Scientific Understanding isnt science they say theres not as mass court there is is there evidence they dont work theres no evidence that im going to have a car accident today should i not wear seat belts they dont understand so the idea that. Its not some of the higher up people should be more competent as bust the higher up the more incompetent c. C. Was incompetent and United States the center for Disease Control same thing at the same attitude towards masks where we were barking and january to say ok this is serious the world has a residential saint or theres no evidence that this disease you know can trust meant for human to human. This is lunacy or generally 26. 00 so there is a World Health Organization lead to a lot of problems ok and problem except waited so if we didnt have it would be better off. Its a and the so so so i like but i want structures are localist so subsidiarity in other words if you cannot do it at the local level maybe you go up ok and for things like the military for things on the phone ok thats fine you dont at the top level to come to diplomacy or the village level but for things like water electricity and basic safety like. Leave it to the town some towns in italy decided to close to strangers others were open to let them compete whos going to do better you know facing the class of the realm of thats so this is leading people to understand locals so where is your smell in terms of. A regionalized economy because a lot of great minds and economy that of space spoken to different Different Countries theyre saying you know were going from global to regional economy to let me think were all in the same nobody wants to go to authority where you just you know youre bored. And want to stream and do it while so you know no control over them so its somewhere in between so i think that the fight is between those who want say 70 percent or 75 percent say so because even if the chinese make something a lot cheaper and its no threat to you lets say ok then then they start pharmaceutical ok thats fine or they can make has a from a sort of call that we use yes but you cannot have a control 100 percent of the circle you dont enter the when there is a disruption then youre cut off from the source and so for vital sayings maybe well have a were going to world where you dont have. The vital things are must be produced locally here within an area that is a racial. And non vital things who cares they see this glass of water and they can make it and whatever they want they can make it in the mood they want thats fine its a discussion thats fine i can live without the glass right but pharma no so then there are some items and i think countries what i think. Will happen is countries will say ok we need to have stock on this this this this and that or make sure its produced locally and the rest will so impact on the general economy is going to be not big and the summit because i really dont think anybody wants are saying you dont believe in his leg big slowdown in globalization you think you think things have a nicer not more going there was a sion and be more guarded in other words when i say like nobodys mentioned and this economic boost we got was it is partially or maybe totally or whatever it is definitely had a role in pulling a 1000000000 people out of poverty we didnt want a 1000000000 people out of poverty by sending them. Kids who study at harvard professor and she knows you know no thats not how it works or it and theyre messing up their place no we got them out of poverty axl rose ation ok by having a gross and one area lead to gross in another area so we had that so the saying is we dont want to mess it up we want to protect it. But on the other hand the enemy what he does is say listen to any surprise they should say hey whats your problem they say well. The china makes. 95 percent of the vital drugs ok thats fine now through some here its not big deal nonvital drugs like if you want. Some kind of weather thats fine to make it but so what im saying is that if you have to make a list of things that the government will assist to not be localized the list will not be mostly larche. And then also oh the supply chains or through the good times handle them rather well i mean its not a big deal what i think is happening now and that would be a big transformation as a physical movement of population like me travelling to would be reduced and the Business Traveller will will not be there wont be you know as active as we saw in the past because they feel his life is over and where now they all understood that we could work with zoom and who wants to spend 3 hours in traffic area day. But you still have a Business Travel but for me to go to you know i dont mind doing so or georgia or school say once a year and i mean. Going to have my and my amenities and all these i love the feel of i dont want to go in once a year but but and then spending more time there and stuff but traveling you know back im forced because theres a conference or something i will not have anymore or to use myself by travel is the one not be able to replace everything you still need people face to face ok yeah you got it i dont think that it was something any somehow right you can do it be as soon exactly so the. But but on the other hand there would be immediate reduction but i think academia is going to suffer the most in countries like United States where the things overall are much more like it so that is what one of my favorite russian near scientists at that senator niggas gotta know maybe you even know her and she spoke to me recently and she goes that assert uncertainty east the most frightening thing for a human psyche and since this crisis has brought us up to like a whole new level of uncertainty. She says these are the things that will help us through curiosity and empathy do you agree let me tell you what happened to kind of people the 1st kind of people say oh things are bad im just a home and cry and wait for things to get better like for example. Who were drivers say ok theres no right or another friend of mine who was. Someone from iran. That he converted is aside to start a delivery service. He says people you know theyre buying food that they dont want to wait in line supermarket and so you know and hes making twice as much money twice ok so some people are making. Lemonade out of lemon life because you know lemon i dont know how its translated russian but theyre going to be especially life because you remember you make lemonade and other people are suffering ok and the governors have been extremely. Health role for citizen who would have thought that the 1st socialist president s or United States would be the most front. He gave people universal basic income for a few months and it took possession of companies if thats not socialism i dont know what is socialism ok so the so the individual got a protective nest ok that they didnt have before so it is mixed so my what im telling you is that there are bad news or good news there are a lot of uncertainty here maybe less yet but it is makes the story is never one way when you see an event like that the 1st thing and thats a nasty fragile the 1st thing you gotta do is say how can i make lemonade out of this lemon so for example a group of friends and i were stunning a thing a sort of like maybe university thats off line events at the circus or encouraging others ok. And thats a product of that and that make so for us it is a. Business creation opportunity for many it is a business where creation up a shirt but if youre is an employee of a travel agency and you want to wait for think to come back thats not the right approach they say some people are suffering and others are going to help in any way the governments have been propping up people who you know were desperate because they had no way to pull out of this by themselves but must wonder if you want to headline is done who would have expected the cohead to run boss no mistaken Foreign Policy code to bring socialism to countries like United States in spain. Like a double pleasure talking to you because i was interested in what youre going to say but now that youve inflicted me with optimism and now i am coming out of this interview saying this is a good thing thats happening to me because the good thing that well has been a mad man or im going to make lemonade out of this lemonade out. Thats what im going to say every morning when i wake up thank you so much its been such a pleasure to thank you thank you thank you thank you take care of yourself a great thing there really hope to talk to you soon i would like to thank Synergy Online Forum organized by the synergy of Business School for arranging this interview thanks to you guys. Is your media a reflection of reality. In a world transformed. What will make you feel safe from. The isolation for community. Are you going the right way or are you being led somewhere. Direct. What is true what is faith. In the world corrupted you need to descend. To join us in the depths. Or remain in the shallowness. Of the mc maxwell soggy is one of the most sensational stories of our time however Media Coverage appears to be limited to learning details and political overtones the single biggest question that needs to be answered is how all this could have happened where was lawn foresman and will justice be on a search. Russia rescue teams and their International Colleagues start joint operations at the site of the devastating explosion in beirut correspondent. And ultimate demolition power behind this explosion we are in the very epicenter as close as 1000000000 can get and this is the very 1st site where russian rescuers are searching for survivors. Tristans flanking pages of certain Media Outlets state. Policy appears to like consistency this comes as the state Department Releases a report on the supposed 5 pillars of russian propaganda. The British Government faces criticism after pearl