This because finland is imo isolated from geopolitical history this is despite having a turbulent past sandwiched between east and west russia and sweden in its case how did it manage to navigate and i know you go into great detail just briefly added mellish an alligator on either side to empires just over a century ago finland was one of the poorest parts of europe and terrible civil war years of people. It ended up in a way on the whole side in the 2nd world war had a reparations after that by not being dominant by actually having been a colony of sweden the colony of russia a colony actually in germany at what point. Will have to Work Together and it there was incredible struggles in the ninetys this isnt the seventys a change in education is something that in hindsight you could say that finland had an advantage of not having. Being dominant in the past of not having a supercilious attitude about itself in a way in europe finland is kind of the opposite of england in there was a heart of the biggest empire about 7 known finland as one of the colonies of fundamental though to this happened as according to your book is the idea of equality a sign i dont know whether the Finnish Communist Party never went away there was a cause a civil war that you chart it never embrace the reagan fashion world fully even though there were from time to time departures into privatisation which of course led to it to suffering 2008 yes it did. A little bit to the finish complete with this communist party left that there actually in the left party which is much more dominated by a full a womens parties the left party in finland is part of the common government in the lives of 5 parties so if the left in britain want to look. For what they should do they really should look at finland where left wing parties left of social democrats came together and actually stopped fighting each other feel and have so many lessons so many people back out of these things that yeah you talk about womens rights you and your coauthor of course writing in britain where a one figure came out during this pandemic that most children are one paycheck away from not having enough to eat just explained some of the social protections that you suggest are essential for happiness oh what a difference i mean a common situation in england is truly all for treasury produced or polls on the 8th of july claiming that the poll is bought many many out to b. B. C. News stories too and house of commons select committees of Treasury Committee and public rez committee dominated both by conservatives boast than me about government but for the lack of say security and the fact that now if you look at the Standard Life data were looking at 10000000 households possibly 20. 5000000 people in serious financial difficulty and it by sea fin and have been storing p. P. A. Protective equipment in case a pandemic it is extremely hard to end up on the streets in finland and even are that the site that in the by this lake has the lowest times thats right in the whole of europe. Finance spends the most educationally and this is where it beats i was going to lady countries of the nordic countries spent the most on the bottom quarter of children the quarter who had the balls or you might have done worst at school they have the most spent on the contras the haps the guy you can guess who we spent it eventually the most money on well what is it actually not arms is. No no no we spend 33 percent of all the money that we spend on secular education goes on the 7 percent of you to go to private school yet private schools emerges as a as a theme in the education chapter i mean do you see it as essential the destruction of a private Education System to create. A more equal society that will then create Human Happiness its quite your story in finland isnt so much of that in the never had much of a private education. Schooling system in fact most of us never did its a very good english and slightly scottish thing the big battle in finland was against grammar schools and sixtys and seventys and selective education and the idea of educating all but also finland has has one i would idea that anything goes school should be good you shouldnt have parents worry about their children going to figure schools simply by the universities there is a university hierarchy. But it is incredibly narrow and degree some of the universities which is seen more towards the bottom are seen as very very high value your completely qualified the idea that the masters degree from a university in. Might help less because of where where that comes from isnt there i mean if you think about you it was like a kind of trust to children 1st your children in many ways when it comes to captivates Life Expectancy the pandemic inequality we can all see the it has at the bottom of most of the rankings of european states and finland is at the top so its like picking the child it is best at school it will be to maybe challenge what you know and it can it can get a bit great looking at the going to how well and how good finland does there are all kinds of reasons as to why because there always will be european country does better on average than all of your big countries you have if you not gone great to hear that britain is doing so badly but if anyone thinks finland is somehow alien you do show that its been affected by the vicissitudes of globalization you say we know it from nakia of course the Telecoms Market they got into there because presuming it was dark and big distances and lots of snow but then too they too were affected by globalization theyre going to be now maybe by sanctions on china and they too tried out some elements of well not the full lansley approach weve done here to privatizing National Health services but they also tried different types of marketization in their services theyre not that alien now no theyre not they make mistakes but whats interesting is the country that small few people and was a sum of one point so reliant on Something Like mach units and it sync up bust and spread out over what they do you can suddenly see nakia collapse in the most most popular company its been beaten by mouth advertising we now spend a fortune on harm that actually is the little about they bounce back and there is a there is a resilience there is the idea that you have to really do it yourself and then. It isnt an amateur its analogous you see any United States now were the best in a while make America Great again the great there is in the audience that you see in britain which i think comes from reading and by human and by telling ourselves that you deserve that but. Equally you will feel and its we have to work hard we have to learn we have to be able to do the same but dont let other people get above. The exploit that was because that will be in a fish this is to 6 of the most shocking that we found were about Work Life Balance they were about how people and people without the sweet people without high school of occasions were most able to choose what hours they worked. And you can see this if you go to helsinki and try to get yourself something to eat at 9 or 10 oclock at night its really hard because nobody wants the washing dishes dishes that never look at night the most money does the couple was when finland produced the lowest in mortality rate in World History fewer than 100 babies died in war recently you know thats absolutely stunning one might say that ok finland hasnt had the genocidal history of the United States against native americans Indigenous Peoples the britons colonial or legacy is it all over now though i mean there are sanctions being imposed on china virus johnson obviously has expelled the hallway of a 5 g. Seems to say once nakia from finland knock it. Completely dependent on chinese component also there are sanctions threatened on russia which presumably will also hit the finnish economy as russia has a big trade trading partner of finland it cant get away this time every. It really intricate situations before you got a member fin there was on the border of the cold war it was in the most dangerous place when we were preparing to fight a nuclear war in the middle you know. I think it will get away with this not least as the power of the us i. Now only 5 companies have kept their share price america that flexed. Apple microsoft the deep these cant these companies are exploiting the rest of the world producing something with google so its a 5th one she says something that isnt that hard to do a Search Engine is not that clever delivering goods by truck on electric this is not that clever america the pens almost 5 monopoly companies as it annoys the rest of the world were going to start to look at why are you using those 5 american Countries Companies for its distribution of goods for its entertainment. Were going to start looking at doing it in different ways i think certainly the friends of famous for diplomacy nobodys going to tell the americans and their face were really really a 1000000 layers now but i do think america has shot itself in the foot one time too many and really would not be concerned about its power over than of course its enormous military. Those 5 guys even obligation is obviously say what they do is very complicated and very innovative. About the facebook i couldnt get to the total facebook when i was a University Student why didnt you thats what my exact words were tell you i was going to village by asking you ok of you think finland is going to manage to traverse this complicated minefield ahead of it in terms of geopolitical Economic WarfareClimate Change due to finland what nothing else has its one of the biggest fears in finland which is why dylans at that age is so i think net 0 for 25 like 15 years i had the u. K. Why does there have been more Green Technologies asked than anyone else i know is life in the forefront of producing proteins only is meat and do not require sunlight and soonish you know because i like to buy proteins you really have gives an enormous amount of food in the. Area its ironic really that some of the people in the wild to live in the least in winter and some of us gets ready to graze but in winter some of the coldest parts of the planets are worrying most about Climate Change it does not say has the fins i think over the Global Outlook the magnanimous way in which they operate because if you value each other equally if you see people as well while sigal country its easier to see people outside you can choose while as well president enjoying thank you. After the break just cope with 19 have seasons we investigate the potential resurgence in the spread of coronavirus in the coming months with the director of Columbia Universitys climate and Health Program all of them all coming up about doing going underground. L. Look forward to talking to you all. That technology should work for people. I robot must obey the orders given by human beings except when such orders to conflict with the 1st launch your identification for should be very careful about Artificial Intelligence and the point is to create. Areas with Artificial Intelligence where summoning. The obama must protect its own existence is. Just russia be meddling in u. K. Politics according to an official report the answer is maybe kind it and the usual highly likely reporting also secretary of state might bump your views on a crusade against china does anyone outside the beltway really care. Welcome back corona virus has killed over half a 1000000 like a hurricane is just proportionately ended the lives of the vulnerable but how valid is the metaphor over a hurricane as we approach winter when according to one study the u. K. Alone may see 120000 more killed Columbia University research is argue that not only good lives have been saved earlier but that it may be possible to predict a virus like you predict the weather the director of Columbia Universitys climate and Health Program professor Geoffrey Sherman joins me now from new york city thank you so much should geoffrey for coming on so weve heard about the influence of manmade Climate Change on creating new brands. Makes on this show before but youre working on the relation between climate focusing and focusing influenza just tell me about the Research Well its a components of it really one is actually using climate conditions try to understand how they affect the survival the viability the transmissibility of different types of pathogens such as influenza and that sort of a direct relationship between atmospheric conditions and what are the outcomes for Infectious Diseases the other component oh is to use the methods that are used to generate numerical weather prediction that is the framework the mathematical and statistical approaches and apply them to Infectious Disease systems generate forecasts of those systems we sometimes actually combine the 2 methods together to make an even better prediction system but thats the gist of it thats what were trying to do and try to make something that will give us some insight into what is coming our way in the future well when you live in an island like britain its hard to forecast from a day to day but we havent had the day to day week to week press conferences and so on telling us about deaths infections and so on of coronavirus you really think that the aim here in the possibility it holds out is that we may be able to forecast week to week prevalence of coven i actually dont and that may come as a shock to you because i dont think you get the point we certainly are still in the way for coping 19 and the reason is that were disrupting it so much in order to make a prediction of a hurricane making landfall for instance you dont expect Human Society and endeavors to disrupt what that hurricane does similarly when we make predictions of seasonal flu humans are fairly predictable about what they do they dont change their patterns and we dont do that much to disrupt it so we can make predictions based on the dynamics and the environmental forcing of that system for kovan 19 the world is taking it with a different very different approach its highly disruptive and whats going to happen in the future is strongly depends on what. Societies do what our political leaders dictate we should do is are there shelter in place orders are that compelling mask usage and what the general public is going to do are they going to isolate are they going to search distance are they going to use the mass and how well because we dont have a crystal ball into Human Behavior both politically and at an individual level to say what the public will do were not making forecasts of what will happen or over 90 i should add though that doesnt mean we dont try to project possible future outcomes we do do that we try to scope out one of the range of possibilities and you might ask well why bother doing it if it cant be specific and the aim there is to try to suss out what are the possible realistic things that could happen what are the end members one of the guidepost that are going to say how bad this might get or how bad it might not be dependent on what we do but its not really a forecast where its going to tell you how many cases were going to have because were being much to disrupt it with this virus were trying to stop it so aside from the political decisions on lockdowns on mosques and so on you can though still find correlations of a kind with. Maybe no wind speed maybe no precipitation would say Something Like temperature so that can be added into the mix of our analysis as i said there was analysis he ever Southampton University saying 120000. 00 could be killed here this winter. Right and so what theyre looking at there is a 2nd wave coming in now there have been a number of studies that have been put together that have tried to look to see whether or not this disease this pathogens r c o b 2 is sensitive to conditions such as u. V. Radiation temperature and humidity conditions and one of the reasons why we look at that is that there are 4 endemic coronaviruses these are viruses that are circulating in our mitts all the time they cause very mild illness they go by funny names like o c 43 and h k you want or what we notice because we have been tracking them for that long simply because theyre very mild but weve noticed over the last 67 years is that in fact they are very seasonal and there seasonality mirrors that of influenza in that they peak in december january and february and theyre very minimal in their activity in the summer months so theres concern with this novel virus which is also d corona virus and its related to these viruses that it may have some innate seasonality when people have looked at it what they have found is there is some evidence that it does have some seasonality its not enough to stop it in the summer time though right now because theres too little immunity in the population and the virus itself is too aggressive but it may not be as transmissible were still see it everywhere in the United States where i have its running rampant the concern is as we get into october November December the virus will become more transmissible because of environmental conditions and art and it will be even more difficult to control and we could see a very large 2nd wave it and i as a fan this is no Peer Reviewed as yet but its a correlation a strong correlation which of course may not mean causation but there is a strong correlation to suggest in this seasonality yes actually there are some studies that are out as Peer Reviewed studies at this point but there are a lot of other studies that are just crazy prints at this point its very noisy there are a lot of people who investigated this line of research would see. On average the balance of evidence says that there is some modulation due to environmental conditions of the transmissibility of this iris not enough to stop it in summer time in the Northern Hemisphere but enough to say that there may be some more concerns as we go into winter when it becomes even more transmissible and harder to control it may not be weather specific with that how do we arrive at a number of 150000000 cases rather than the w. H. O. Has 15000000 cases of coronavirus scientists and you think were only getting a 10th of whats really going on. That has to do with some modeling studies that weve done and we can also see that now from cereal cratylus acids where they tested for antibodies broadly in the population for instance in new york city if you look at how many people have been infected its about 2. 5 percent of the population have actually had confirmed cases but everybodys testing shows that about 20 percent of the population hasnt been infected at this point so thats a multiple of roughly 8 to 10 that were seeing are 8 to 10 times as many people have been infected and the reason this virus gets around so easily is that the majority of people who are infected with it never see Clinical Care their symptoms are never bad enough that they actually want to see a doctor they may have mild symptoms a little sore throats of aches a little bit of fever they may even stay home but its not enough to motivate them to see that doctor as a consequence theyre not captured theyre never swaps and theyre never put into those case counts so weve seen this over and over again that there are undocumented infections associated with a lot of common respiratory viruses and its what the scylla takes their ability to get around with a lot or were talking about overestimating the number of deaths and double counting because of statistical problems youre saying what you just said there were how many more may have been killed than actually go into the statistics so im not talking about deaths right now im talking about the number of cases that. Exist out there im talking about the fact that when you see it out lets say in the United States right out of 6075000 cases in a day you can actually multiply that by 810 say there are actually 8 to 10 times as many infections that day in terms of mortality there is a sense that its underestimated to an extent but the estimates that ive seen that i can leave are reliable suggests that its about 20 to 30 percent undercount so you can multiply it by 1. 21. 3 well thats certainly know what were hearing from the white house as you know. If youre talking about the white house are you talking about the projections the white house is making saying that we could see this many cases well that there are you talking about how many weve seen already well as far as we know the cases that are here in the graph the White House Press conferences are the number of cases that occur over 24 hour period and of course the number of deaths over 24 hour period but youre saying they are underestimated numbers they are a little bit underestimated could you specifically tell me what specific remark the white house youre referring to the clear for me well well of course donald trump said that the United States has the best mortality numbers and has actually correlated testing to the number of new cases rather than any other correlation but i know away from that the flick used also appears to echo what Neil Ferguson here one of the top advisers until he had to resign from Imperial College saying that the lockdown was implemented too late well fix in here said the. May be tens of thousands going to be saved the lockdown was earlier something you agree with the in the United States as well yes as a matter of fact weve done a specific study on that in the United States and the reality is that a virus like this is growing its growing exponentially and the earlier you jump on an exponential process it has enormous diffidence its actually going to greatly reduce the number of. Basis and the mortality associated with it weve actually quantify that for the United States and shown that if wed done exactly what we did in all the heterogeneous fashion were different cities were implementing controls at different time points and to different degrees but if you just packed all that up one week and all the cities it done it one week earlier it would have more than half the mortality that occurred in the 1st wave the whites are the United States so definitely if you can jump on this early youre going to do better and this is not just about looking at it retrospectively its about looking at what it means Going Forward so if were concerned that theres risk of aids wintertime weight coming we have to be very vigilant we have to be willing to reimpose the measures that allowed us to control this virus in the 1st place certainly for you in the u. K. In the u. S. We havent been able to control it but in the u. K. And other places where they have been able to squash it out you have to be very vigilant you have to jump on any flare ups that occur with the virus very quickly otherwise its going to get out of control well grow exponentially again and all overwhelm you if youre not that vigilance well weve weve squatted down but we obviously have a higher death a competent rate than the United States as the figures currently show and in fact what the government here is saying is the important thing now is to get back to work get the economy running get g. D. P. Growth going i understand you who want some environmental Scientists Say that cove it is a sign of a Ripple Effect of Climate Change well you know i actually dont believe that i believe that comit is parallel and analogous to some of the features we see in Climate Change i think komen is a manifestation of more our use of resources our deforestation arent prochoice and on wildlife our population growth and some of the other issues that lead to sustainability but i do not see a direct connection to Climate Change and the emergence of cover 90 professor Geoffrey Sherman thank you. Youre welcome thank you for ads of the show will be back on wednesday 62 years to the day u. S. President eisenhower signed off the creation of nasa shortly before it had senior level nazis for its Rocket Program until then wash your hands join the underground and you Facebook Instagram some time. 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Carnage on american streets has black lives matter protesters and authorities face off we hear from a reporter who is caught up in a Police Crackdown in seattle to get closer to him saying im being peaceful im back to. See a Police Officer comes shout back and start filming him. Directly. Among the other stories that shaped the. Opposition labor party. Broadcast license to be revoked after a report on alleged russian influence. What they think. I dont believe. It poses for more destruction