Where people go and beat each other up in order to get a discount on a flat Screen Television or actually some sort of useless item that they dont need this started this trend started they say in 2005 according to the wikipedia black friday has routinely been the busiest shopping day of the year in the United States since 2005 all the news reports which at that time were inaccurate have described as the busiest shopping day of the year for a much longer period of time similar stories resurface year upon year at this time portraying hysteria and shortage of stop creating a state of positive feedback at the others a shortage of stuff perceived shortage and people get you know black friday they rush the stores and they get into office fights or brawls and its like an american thing and amazingly its like migrated to the rest of the world even though these other countries dont have to giving even though that they dont have these big box discounters they still like to go to the store and beat each other up because they figure thats like being an american they get a hamburger from mcdonalds you beat each other up on black friday and hes saying the National Anthem i mean america is the culture that people d love and were going to get into this comparing this to robin hood app traders but you know i want to show you what i bought in black friday and that was a mini max it did sit on the shelf for. I do while but most people didnt realize many macs actually stood in for you for a few episodes during lockdown and nobody even noticed so it was worth the 599 not 599 but 5 dollars 99 cents i paid for this many macs know that outsold elf on a shelf for 3 christmas its a row before christmas got cancelled because the car Council Culture and the generation and this also justice i got a calculator only paid 6. 00 for a member back of the 1970 s. I bought one for 800. 00 so that was a good one the 1st quite a bargain this is a ive no idea what this is but it looks like a keyhole but its attached to nothing. To unlock the present knowing not into the safe of vault of nothingness put the key here and enter the void so this this was definitely worth the 17 marymount i pay for it this is where i would keep my stuff in case i was out there hunting in the bush with davy crocket i would keep my little packet of you dont do much that these days but it was a bargain at 47. 00 and who doesnt want the spare in the cupboard i got this. Mock out again and you know this is the standard style very stylish to moscow to where your own junk you know they were this even over 30 below 0 you can you can be made from the forehead down if you have been choked on if you like your miami beach right is the amazing Russian Technology there so i know i did almost forgot here this is a 2 can i got also on the sale simply because i thought it would be a good friend for plucky you know plucky lonely a lot of times hes a manic depressive isnt so good im a nice too can like this you can have fun plucky the point is that one participates in one of these shopping stampedes and pretty much you put the stuff. On the shelf and never use that again but you feel better because you got a 50 Percent Discount well you know a lot of robin hood traders look at the markets and think theyre getting 50 or 60 or 70 or 90 Percent Discount when a company on the verge of bankruptcy their shares collapse in like wow a 90 Percent Discount before declared bankruptcy it was 100. 00 now its only 10 what a bargain right well 20000. 00 robinhood traders are in for a rude surprise as c. B. L. Prepares to file bankruptcy bloomberg reports small operator c. B. L. And associates is preparing to file for bankruptcy the headline hit after hours on friday sinking shares by at least 20 percent and you could see shares collapsed by 20 percent then they opened down 23 percent on monday mornings incredible you know these rabbited traders are really learning some important lessons about trading stocks and because in this case the perception that because something has dropped 90 percent that it cant go any lower and of course people who are experienced in markets know that if its dropped 90 percent the chances of it dropping another 90 percent are actually quite high things that are trading at all time highs tend to trade at new all time highs things trading at all time lows tend to trade at new all time lows thats a very subtle and kind of nuanced real fact of trading you find it in books like reminiscence of a stock operator by just livermore written in the 1920 s. Conserve the bible of trade if you really want to learn how to trade these things i suggest you read that very slim book and educate yourself on how these things actually work but jeff when robert apps these kids jency i dont mind picking their pockets every day i can see where theyre making the mistakes i just capitalize on their naivete but in my view im helping them learn its like i could give money to the college fund of america or d i could help robin hood traders lose money in my pocket. Well this is an interesting chart you can see the green line here is the users of robin hood app versus the price of c. B. L. And you see as it keeps on going down and he keeps going down robin hood apertures keep on piling in just for fun i went over to twitter and entered the house and a dollar sign c. B. L. To look at what people are talking about these day traders were saying on Twitter Holding c. B. L. And buying more to average down confident theyre going to reach an agreement with the banks or sell him off so this is somebody on july 18th the day then they basically were filing for bankruptcy so there are agreements in place with creditors that the creditors when you the equity holders lose as weve said many times as they keep on piling into these bankrupt companies yeah these robber who traders would be buying deck chairs on the titanic you know because the price keeps going down and theyre really cheap about a dollar a share im going to buy more while im on the lifeboat we have. Could do it do it do it in the dot com days when i guess it was really generation x. Participating in the dot com days and the last of the boomers like yourself and you know people are piling in on these companies that had no earnings because they had bought like a u. R. L. Like pets dot com but these were companies that were in the beginning of not only a Tech Industry which was still quite new at that point and you know the World Wide Web you know monetizing that that was brand new at the time in the late ninetys but also like these companies at least you could imagine that they might grow into something huge like pets dot com or whatever even the Infrastructure Companies that did fall after that the hype that once everybody realized like the power of the possibility of the World Wide Web they went bonkers right well with these sort of bankruptcy speculators these shopping. Stampedes to invest in bankrupt companies there are literally companies at the end completely of their life cycle hertz over 100 years old it was one of the 1st of the rental Car Companies now were in the day and age of and other ride sharing our ups that have started to destroy that business and were in a post pandemic world well not yet but one day we might be and people Business People arent traveling anymore malls dead theyre not coming back and theyre buying these bankrupt companies a Whiting Petroleum oil whole oil industry dead so these are end of life cycle that these Young Robinhood apertures are piling into the i think thats a remarkable kind of insight interesting point there that the gent acts on the last the baby boomers who are speculating in the 1990s on the birth of companies that went public for the 1st time and they would have these pops and then there was this to normal crash here the millennial is in jenns ear speculating on the death of companies and companies that are dying and declare their dead companies and their client plowing their way in to speculate on the death of a company so there seems to be a very elegant kind of comic circle being square here im not exactly sure what it all means but it is quite beautiful well i think its kind of a trickle down situation and if you look at the these people piling into dead companies not only dead companies but dead industries dead Business Models. Look at the chart from the United States the government the treasury monthly u. S. Surpluses and deficit since 1980. Look at huge the deficits are getting more and more bankrupt slowly and then suddenly its becoming bankrupt and yet you see you know investors around the world many of them from this mysterious caribbean area piling into treasuries. Theres often. Excess demand for negative the open bottoms i mean were making fun of these millennia old and gen buying up robin hood out chairs on robin hood at the bankrupt companies and dead Business Models but the same thing globally with investors Bond Investors are going the same thing theyre being paid you know theyre paying government to borrow from them so like how much less insane how much of a stampede at the supermarket like we all make fun of those walmart rioters and were making fun of the robin hood at rioters and what about the bond traders well its all the short termism so the appeal of buying negative Interest Rate bonds is the greater fool theory that i was going to buy after you bought it and you get a short term profit and the reason why short term profit seeking is so paramount today is because people are broke and theyre bankrupt and theyre drug addled and theyre drunk. And you put them on line with free trading on an app and they do stupid things so the secret of course is to get rich slow but nobody has 20 years to do that everyone has to make money in the next 20 minutes or face the creditors and that includes institutions Pension Funds united State Government is trying to make money in the next 20 minutes otherwise its going to have to declare bankruptcy and thats unfortunate but true so it the risk gets more extreme like a gambling addict that at the casino they only have one bet left before theyre taken to prison and they put on red right on the roulette wheel thats american out there its bankrupt no more defense ability. Because blown out there like were going to put their entire future of the country on the road spin that roulette wheel maybe we maybe will win you know fred smith who is the founder of fed ex actually the company was down to his last 5000. 00 or 15000. 00 he did go through vegas he did put it on the roulette wheel he did win a save the Company Without that lucky spin in vegas fed ex the company would never have survived ok but that was a one in the 10000000000 shot you can roll the entire future of the country on a rule on a spin of the roulette wheel well darn it finally and. I want to point out to the last seconds here i do want to point out that you know just like those robin hood app traders are hoping for something that never what happens in real life which is the bankruptcy that equity holders are going to make any money the same with all the investors in this failed Business Model of a global system based on the u. S. Dollar any currency would fail and that reserve currency but were all a doubling down on this hoping like some sort of miracle the bankruptcy judge 5 basically makes this all whole can link up. With the 3rd of the. Well well be back after this moment go away. Ah no team no crowd. No shots. Actually helps because. While track no one. Points your thirst for action. A dark industry comes to life in los angeles every night. Dozens of women sells their bodies on the street many of them underage. Los Angeles Police reveal a taste of their daily challenge no if youre going to exploit our child here in los angeles are there were going to come out you see officers going undercover as sex workers and customers to fight the early sex trade. Welcome back to the kaiser report imax keyser time now to turn senate panel with a more is the host of breakdown an l w author hes also the author of long raids on sunday at his sub stack i follow this guy on twitter hes a deep thinker were going to interview him right now is pretty darn interesting that they now welcome a thing so much for having me everybodys talking about open ai g p t 3 as the most powerful Artificial Intelligence language model ever is this something we should celebrate or fear i think it goes both ways i mean i dont think you can have a i advantage without worrying a little bit about it the specifics of this one the model thats been released the thing that makes it less scary to me which may be relevant for other parts of our conversation is that it cant do narrative so basically this is sucked in 16475000000000 inputs half a trillion words and so it can predict with incredible accuracy affectively what the next word is supposed to be based on context so it makes it easy for it to do things like imitate blog post and people style the scary thing that of course is that you can imagine you know essays op eds or whatever coming out from max or from the faneuil that sound just like us if people are reading us a lot because its good at doing that sort of imitation the less scary thing is it doesnt really have any comprehension of what its putting out there its just really a predictor so its not kind of intelligent in any meaningful way its just very impressive but its still i think you know every advance that ai has implications for a lot of different roles in jobs and Everything Else and ultimately you know its about trajectory and last year g p t 2 came out and people were blown away that it existed and its taking an even less them out of time for it to be sort of this new version thats 2 orders of magnitude stronger so you know the question that we have with ai i think are bigger than. Any one specific implementation or model but it reminds us that this is going to be a serious part of our future right you think cant stand narrative that way and means that it has a hard time keeping a coherent thought it doesnt have a mental model of the world all it has is the ability to read other stuff and so lets say that you and i wanted to kind of construct a story or you know your were going to talk about a bunch of Different Things today but you know if we talk about the wall street right wall street bath and robin hood and these sort of things im coming into that with a set of mental models that help put that in context for the world it doesnt have anything like that and so what this amounts to is that after a couple paragraphs it can get kind of disjointed and weird and go on strange non sequiturs and tangents and so it can craft a story basically it can do bullet point it can do essays it can do a lot of very impressive things but it cant keep kind of a coherent picture of the world that its all building up to play live in a half hour pay paul. I dont really believe in any narrative right because everythings become fake this cell in the president says thats fake news and Mainstream Media is fake this a 1000 telling people that dont believe any narrative if you have an ai bot that doing it is rape our taj as it were and it famous from what you find from other fake news is its going to be difficult to convince anybody that anything is worth listening to and i think that might be one of the risks of this particular piece of technology now moving on the free money p. P. P. Bailouts the massive money printing operations enhanced Unemployment Benefits universal basic and come put the scale of the money printing into some sort of Macro Economic context and where does this go i mean it goes bigger i mean youre seeing already the all of the kind of light but a little headlines menuhin back on the hill talking about more in stimulus and wanting to get both the fiscal and the monetary engine going in concert you have the e. U. Who just approved a 2000000000. 00 equivalent recovery package and so i think that the biggest thing for me is the whole the side the numbers if the normalization of the methods right when this happened there wasnt a question there wasnt a debate about whether we were going to engage in these programs there wasnt a National Kind of conversation about whether the fed was kind of moving outside of its mandate with the special purpose vehicles it was just assumed that when things got bad the fed was going to be there and the real impact to me is again less the actual dollars and cents in fact is people who are arguing right now that you know as a as a kind of percentage of g. D. P. The feds Balance Sheet is still low relative to the e. C. B. In japan and things like that i think what matters much more is again the narrative implications and the normalization of the fed beds backstopping everything right when you say they are normalizing the fed going outside of say normal channels and using special purpose vehicles to bypass let thats called what it is by. Passed the law right there and behaving lawlessly for the benefit of whom the other thing that i need the money is trickling down to a vast majority of folks in the country same dollars get stuck in the pockets of the coptic rats and i can tell you theres so isnt this effectively what we say as a coat it would be a coup if it wasnt already the power structure in place traded i mean and maybe revealing the coup that happened a long time ago more baldly but i think that the the reality is that there is only one instrument that they have to kind of exert their will on the markets and thats an instrument that by definition is going to get to the sort of actors right that can tell you theres insiders faster and i think in a lot of ways thats why youre seeing people kind of throw out the assumption that that traditional policy is going to do anything for them and are just trying to kind of assert themselves like barbarians at the gate in the market so i think that the only qualms i have with your definition of this is a coup is that its been going on for a long time and and if anything this just kind of made it more clear the antecedents got back to the reagan years and the federal reserves greenspan put all the deregulation and basically wiping away the security back to 33 and 34 that cleaned up the mass of the speculative bubble of the 1920 so were back kind of into almost a replay of all the excesses that occurred at that time the robin hood trading generation is out there on that app trading up a frenzy and theyre buying stock in bankrupt companies with their with their p. P. P. Money and their and their universal basic and come money theyre buying hertz and j. C. Penney and Whiting Petroleum and mall operators c. B. L. These are companies that are going bankrupt and theyre attracting a lot of training on behalf of a robin hood app traders tell me whats going on here. There theres a lot i think that theres a couple different ways to look at it one is the question of does this actually have a role in markets and if you asked you know wall street professionals a few months ago whether this was a real force they would kind of dismiss it right theyre blowing it off i think that the tone has shifted a little bit and its something that people are taking more seriously part of the reason for that is that this whole movement has infiltrated Financial Media which has historically been extraordinarily exclusionary almost by definition right Financial Media is designed to make people feel less knowledgeable and less understanding because its made to feel that people who do understand all the acronyms and and get it you know they feel like an ingroup thats really what Financial Media does thats what it profits from so now you have forces like dave portnoy the founder of arsenal sports who are just absolutely warping the media narrative to fit what hes telling and hes it is an ignore of will force and thats creating more momentum around it which i think goes back to the strategy here and to me all of this represents and some ways a base level discontent with with the options available to participate in the market and so rather than just kind of passively accepting that you just have to put your money into your 401 k. And go on your merry way people are saying no this is ridiculous im going to go see what we can do and thats why you have these sort of semi coordinated efforts like wall street bets which are not just kind of meaning although memes are an important part theyre basically weaponize ing names and playing a game of chicken with the rest of the markets and i think that thats what the bankruptcy bat was all about is it was a bet that they were going to make this thing looks so ridiculous that some percentage of people just had to foam 0 in and they were willing to play that that game of chicken in a way that potentially other Institutional Investors just couldnt hang with you know anything with a part no i am a day trader on the robin hood traders they have buying herbst aka even though its bankrupt as monitor they had offended. And i think ultimately thats unhealthy for this generation the millennial think and say they are getting hooked on senator i would go farther i would say its the monetization of nihilism and it is a i mean you know not everyone right i dont want to go too far but i do believe that. One of the one of the responses to this that rings least true to me and that i think is the one of the biggest examples we have of kind of pearl clutching right now is oh when this bubble inevitably blow up like it always will these guys are going to be disillusioned and my theory is that the disillusionment is table stakes for this disillusionment and the reason they got in disillusionment is going to college in college that 12 years later without feeling like you got farther along this illusion it is not being able to buy a house because houses just keep going up disillusionment is as all of these things right its the places that inflation is they can hold that arent the silly little you know Consumer Price index and so if people are being told and structurally forced into participating in markets as their only means of getting ahead in any meaningful way why wouldnt you do it in a way thats more thats more kind of barbarian and serves your own interests and doesnt play by the rules when the rules have left you behind why would you accept them as the way to play the game if you think you could figure something out the out now this has nothing to do with efficacy especially in the long term but i understand the nihilism and the frustration but to your point i do think that its unhealthy we dont want people to engage in our markets in is that even a bad faith because the whole thing is bad faith in some ways but in a way that presumed that nothing is there for them other than to grab the loot that they can before the whole city burns to the ground enough out of what we have right now good point their value right off in about dollar milkshake and dollar wrecking ball tell us about hey this is one of the biggest questions i think that really there is so much disagreement about in the world is on the one hand you have this theory that the dollar. Is the only game in town ultimately and that the dollar and the u. S. More broadly effectively suck all the liquidity of the world into their system because its the only place for excess savings in other parts of the world particularly asia and europe to go thats kind of the dollar milkshake theory paul has kind of redefined it as the dollar wrecking ball and talked about its do it sure is impact on other parts of the market the other side of it is has to do with or the counterpoint i guess is that the dollar has been kind of weaker than some people thought or as a reset a little bit and so really no one has any friggin idea right now about the dollar part of the opacity and part of the confusion in the system has to do with the fact that when we talk about the dollar were not just talking about the dollar itself but dollar equivalents right were talking about the the entire euro dollar system the entire world of u. S. Dollar denominated debt that is not kind of in the in the formal u. S. Bank system so its i think that for me and the reason that i cover it so often is that the place of the dollar is the worlds reserve currency has and the way that that manifest has an outside impact on other assets other economies other real economy issues and its one area where there really is not a single band of conventional wisdom theres very strong kind of competing theories for what happens so when paul krugman at the New York Times says that what backed the dollar are a man with a gun with as that example of monetizing nihilism yes or no i would call that foundational nihilism of a system but i would maybe argue that its the other way around i think in some ways the dollar has been the most effective weapon in the u. S. Arsenal for a very long time now and part of the reason that theres big stakes is that if that changes who knows what happens samael thank so much being on the kaiser report i have to have me am s. Going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me back because theres a fair bit i want to thank our guests a panel with a more if you like out of touch tweet us on kaiser report that i found bio. I 1st heard about you know. From the helicopter folks in iraq. Or i think of them actually pulled in and im going to with military we have never forgiven or. Forgotten traitor the truth of the book and it will be giving you something he was really starting to have. In the pen journalese that hes too dark to see a lot of crimes to outnumber the audience. The idea of developing an anonymous digital trombones and applying it to the media consensus makes sense that was a friends. Going to get the torrent just right it would be for a short while. In the room one of the worlds most powerful news a woman very serious offenders and a silver founder to the song give it some knowing. That there was a great deal of jealousy the main spring for the song the fit why wont it be more like oh they have hugh seen all. The seats and. Since my. Records. For. Me have julia outside in solitary confinement in the prison for terrorists await you know how its a live person. I dont see him dying. And i. Know what hes missing. Look forward to talking to you all. Should work for people. Must obey the orders given by human beings except where such conflict with the 1st law. Should be. The point. On theories not seen with Artificial Intelligence some of the demons. Must protect its own existence. With. The u. K. s Opposition Labor Party is pushing for broadcast license to be revoked demanding the. Britains independent regulator. An encounter with a u. S. Fighter jet several are injured on board passenger plane the pilot makes a dangerous maneuver to avoid a collision. And china orders the United States to shut its consulate. In response to the closure of its own and the u. S. Secretary of state
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.