People and the planet and contribute to a green sustainable recovery he joins me now via skype from london very excited to speak to you mark where the greatest actors on the planet you know the Mainstream Media conversation though mark is were going to get the economy going weve got to get back shopping just tell me about the National Nature service which is being promoted by the wildlife and Countryside Link well i was taught i was a kid in 2 negatives make a positive and weve got 2 natures got a massive amount of jobless and weve got a massive job to do in the environment our eco systems are very degraded we rank Something Like 100 89. 00 out of 218. 00 nations the loss of biodiversity in our landscape and by loss of biodiversity whether youre in a human being were talking about cells in a human being or wildlife in the countryside means poor health that means youre much more vulnerable when you dont have the bio diversity. City thats one thing we also have a massive job to help our landscape to sequester carbon and indeed to absorb water as the oceans rise if were to get anywhere near this target of keeping the overall temperature below 1. 5 degrees centigrade so weve got a massive job this is a massive vital job to do lets put the 2 together and get to work president roosevelt in 1933 put 300000 americans to work in 3 months in 800 camps and planted 3500000000 trees in 9 years and that was without all this communication and technology i dont see why we cant do it the government has to pay unemployment benefit anyway particularly to my profession were not looking at having work until april next year judi dench said this today i saw that shes thinking that it is may not reopen in her lifetime so weve got a massive creative intelligent Flexible Workforce just in my profession put them to work this autumn thats if we cant make art lets make nature thats my thing thats my thought well ill give a drummer in a moment if i may but you see we have pioneering primatologist jane goodall on this program weve had angela davis the former black panther they kept on emphasizing the environment the deforestation that may have played a part in the creation of coronavirus but the nurse will maybe International Conversation is. Its not the environment what i hear from a scientist a couple days ago is the likelihood of a vaccine is its a big guess its that theyre really in territory they dont know much about i think its going to become very clear to everyone that our immune system what we eat what we breathe what we drink is crucial to our surviving this pandemic obvious that may well be coming and if once you get into looking closely at your own health pretty soon you start to look at what youre breathing i certainly in here london i really have noticed the improvement of the air the improvement of the water and and of about 15 years ago i started to look at what i was eating and whether it was actually providing what it said it was providing on the label which in many cases it was not because of that are the way we the way we use the land we have a massive a massive change in in the u. K. Out of narrative in how we use our land most of the land is used in the way it was used in the 19 150. 00 s. After the war when we were understandably as everyone was concerned about Food Production but now we dont need so much land for Food Production we should be moving about 25 percent of our Food Production land towards a rewilding or restored eco system towards wetlands towards forests towards a rewilding of the environment to help us meet these much more important targets of surviving Climate Change so its a massive opportunity at the moment to get to work on on in at the beginning of what the u. N. Has described as the decade of eco system restoration when Boris Johnson talks he talks about Big Multinational Companies when all trump talks at the white house with coronavirus briefings with Big Multinational Companies parallels between this National Nature service and what Bernie Sanders Jeremy Corbins Green New Deal thats the kind of thing youre talking about as we approach the hopefully the end of the pandemic. Im not so aware of what Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbin a saying now im im very aware that Caroline Lucas in the green party has been working on a Green New Deal with people like john of them part theyve been working since 2007 on the models that Franklin Roosevelt set down in 1933 that they not only planted 3500000000 trees they also did a lot of restoring of soil they prevented millions and millions of dollars of loss of juta fires with new services to prevent fires we have we we have so many jobs to do in terms of our relationship with our environment i dont know why any Political Party is not thinking about this particularly when they have to they have to intervene now i know a lot of more right wing governments dont want to be seen as intervening in society they want to light a touch of government but everyones calling out to the government in to be known and support us and help us through this there are other benefits too in my mind as well in terms of the rare important issues of racial diversity in our society this all the divides that have grown up in our society of the last few years between urban and rural between elderly and young between the different races in our society a National Nature some of this could be could start with diversity has its basic foundation and we could be many meeting mixing in meeting these societies as we do works not just works in the countryside but also work works on urban wildlife for young people who have no gardens and no access to wildlife to see how nature behaves that would be another benefit of it in my mind but does the wildlife in Countryside Link have the ear of government we have Jonathon Porritt whos advised Prince Charles he also advised b. P. On our program he said there were hers on this program that b. P. Was greenwashing and people who have the ear of government arguably are the big fossil fuel companies not maybe the wildlife in Countryside Link. Well youre absolutely right they do and they have been greenwashing but the tide is turning isnt it i mean Renewable Energy is now cheaper than than oil. These companies have been warned by the banks themselves if been warned to be prepared for a massive change and that massive change is happening wind and solar power is now foreign it doesnt need subsidies any more its actually in the market as a more affordable more economic. Viable solution. So you know my feeling is and this i got from Jonathan Porritt a Tipping Point will come a Tipping Point is going to come this is going to happen at some point we are all going to realize oh my god the ship is on fire if nothing else matters and the wise man is an irishman said to me recently fixes his roof when the sun is shining not when its pouring with rain i think probably the citizens are ahead of the of the broken dynamic between big business and government what is going to happen then to her and film i mean. Can you have sympathy for affairs of a takes once a ship or Big Multinational Companies who may be very not the same with the wildlife and Countryside Links because theyre so desperate for funding i think you have to be careful whether youre an individual citizen or or a community or a group about who you take money from dont you i mean of course there are Many Organizations and individuals with more money than they need and perhaps frightened to give that money away that that wealth does need to be shared in a very large way as well as a small way and supporting the arts supporting the imagination in society is a very wonderful thing was going to take a lot of the magination and a change in the way in our understanding of our story and so the great plays by chekhov or by shakespeare plays. Survive the greek plays its in the usually about people facing the kind of climactic change were facing at the moment im all for supporting the arts dont get me wrong and i dont have a pinion that corporations are necessarily bad or governments of bad the systems just get outdated and broken but i think i think the Business World and the government world. Will and that eventually come around to having to do something about this. Youre picking this up on me because i have been outspoken about b. P. And the r a c and i didnt like that sponsorship deal because i felt that b. P. Were using shakespeares name to give the impression that they were a very sensitive and cultured and awake Business Group at that time which i didnt feel they were i didnt feel their behavior warranted that that connection but weve had the former boss of b. P. On this program we obviously invite them you want to refute any allegations against them ive got to ask you though about shakespeare because Boris Johnson the Prime Minister was supposedly writing a book about him before he became Prime Minister suddenly relatively suddenly youve said in the past that shakespeare is something you sought ethical guidance from his work during the johnson is to read some more shakespeare during the pandemic. He says that hes definitely a shakespearean type character isnt it johns and. Im not sure full stop ever becomes king and plays. Well i dont know him so i can only imagine the pressures that hes under i wouldnt want to are so slag him off for that if hes read shakespeare or. Is intrigued by chicks and thats thats a very good sign yes i think there is a lot of are a lot to be learnt particularly for leaders from shakespeare i think of a lot of a lot of it focuses very much. On the ethics and the behavior and the outcomes of different leadership patterns your mind of suspected deforestation the environment would have created pandemics but i presume you didnt know coronavirus was coming when you plan to do your next project its a play about dr ignites semmelweis who is a hunger in dr who discovered that in vienna to cut it to try and tell it briefly he was working in the maternity in the Maternity Ward one was run by midwives who practiced on manikins and the other was run by young doctors who practiced on cadavers and what he discovered was that they were coming straight from doing autopsies to helping the young women give birth and that the death rates were incredibly high for the young women from sepsis from playing through a fever both them and their children and he 40 years before louis passed or dr lister discovered bacteria he discovered that there was something he couldnt see it that you could smell it on the hands of the doctors and he called it cat of eric particles and he wrote to every doctor in the whole of europe and none of them have it why partly because it meant that they were guilty of having killed people on within the that they were trying to help but it shows how difficult it sometimes is for some even for science to make a move forward when the old story has a lot of guilt and shame around it so we should we should be wary of the shame and blame and all that aspect of the game because undoubtedly the new discoveries that theyre going to help and save us will mean that some of us have been doing some things very wrong while hungary and director didnt tell me about him why graylands thank you. My pleasure after the break the worlds most frequently cited neuroscientist professor call for us to advise the independent Sage Committee in britain no ones going on the ground that you could governments coronavirus approach could see the country back in lock down before the end of the all of them all going up a bottle going on the grass. Join me every thursday on the alex salmon show and obviously to get on the world of politics or business and show business ill see you then. Welcome back in the 1st half of the program we spoke to legendary actor marc rylan is about the new and improved pose covert world that could be build up to lock down but with daily death still over underage in the u. K. And whats the risk that we could be regional you log on before the end of the joining me now is the worlds most frequently cited youre a scientist who has a Conference Agenda is responsible for Mathematical Modeling of the independent Scientific Advisory group for Emergencies Committee thank you so much for coming on before we get on do are the state of Mathematical Modeling in the world today the obvious question is should we be abandoning lockdowns here is the World Health Organization is warning of an increased spike and is there any point in the Antibody Testing for immunity. To very Big Questions that i think in relation to lock down the modeling it suggests that this is probably the right time to consider a great good lock down so were not talking about a categorical complete abandoning all our heritage Good Behavior responses and social distancing or the wearing of masks made at this point the models when you quote behavior responses into those models it would suggest that this is about the right time we should be considering that and of course there are enormous pressures on the epidemiology to. Your consideration of getting the economy going getting square schoolchildren back at schools were really activated they have says i think it might be helpful just to categorize the different kinds 2nd ways that we might be frightened of. The 1st sought is a resurgence are rebadged that would reflect a criminal sure that station locked out policy. And that could arise in the in the next few weeks or so as a direct consequences of our behavior responses or indeed our institutional responses theres another kind of 2nd way and testing policy makers in the long term and thats a kind of 2nd the way that we so our spanish flu and some of a more recent influenza pandemics the mechanism that this is not so sensitive to unlocking explore the population or that immunity and it successive erosion over the next few months either through immunological process is really not about it or indeed population taxes and relaxing of orange things and exchange of people between different populations that is the kind of lock down the kind of 2nd wave that would probably emerge if it does around christmas social shortly thereafter and so a lot of factors there you have temperature and so on i just a quick practical one Mathematical Modeling is notorious. For discovering how difficult it is and that movement of air what do you made of the form of big pharma top advisors and every advisor to mars johnson release a battery vallance seeming to change his views about the 2 meter distancing. Exponentially higher a one meter what what are we supposed to believe. Think he is put in a very difficult position. And very much like most scientists have stripped already away the evidence from different perspectives and certainly when your in the game of making or devising a policy decisions its all a game of a risk in relation to social distancing one versus 2 meters it is. True that the probability of transmission when you are closer to somebody will increase in the estimates are between 2. 10 and that range in itself gives an indication the degree of uncertainty we have about that however i think its position is that social distancing is important to nuance saying they offset of the 1st wave that is mechanistically important. And as such he can motivate i think every direction from 2 to one metres if effectively if the thing that matters which is a probability that i will in fact you know if i am to question you can be reduced through not facing each other wearing a face mask in certain situations so it is that little it seems a bit like common sense always you know there is someone i mean theres nothing more sophisticated than that so i know germany which is reporting far fewer new cases than britain has been easing a lockdown but then seems you discover that what is it meat packing areas you have very cold temperatures and thats the big impact on spikes in certain local areas yeah you know ive just come back to your original observation that certainly impresses itself upon me the more i look into this it is all commonsense i just taking that commonsensical notion through to the experience of germany so what we are i think seeing there is a a fluctuation that is a reflection of the slow offset of the 1st wave there is due to actually jeanette in the population and an important kind of education that is about what some people have just not yet been exposed to the virus so as the virus me aches invades throughout any country in the u. K. And germany its going to come across pockets of people they will populations communities that were not previously exposed so i suspect were going to be seeing quite a lot of these little outbreaks with local thinkers responds. Says ok you you actually work more nanometers presumably with brain imaging tell me about immunological dark matter because im going to say weve had scientists on this program nobel Prize Winners some of them who usually talk about Quantum Mechanics and show how the great the greatest Initiative Science gives us are completely against common sense. That into the observation. Every dark matter and common sense to get out of that particular argument so dont matter comes into. The 1st thing it was used or misused a mystically atom as a popular example of stuff we cannot see that we know must be there in order to explain that which we can say that dark matter in this instance also takes on a very particular meaning it speaks to certain populations of the population that behave as if they were in the shadows of the pandemic so an example of that maybe the people were talking about the core the denizens of the community that have not been exposed to the guys at this stage because they are sequestered theyre geographically isolated but there are other important forms of dog ish not even within the community or the population that is exposed potentially to the direst for example you may be not susceptible you may have developed across immunity so putting these different kinds of dark matter into the model into the mix into the common sense start to give you a very nuanced picture of what might happen and how one would interpret levels of Antibody Testing which brings us back to the 2nd part of the our very 1st question so if you want confirmation that the epidemic and the pandemic is unfolding in the way the thought it would because you put all the right privatise all the things that matter into your model then one of the most important bits of evidence is the number of people that have attained a degree of immunity and all of those a proportional will have developed antibodies and you can go measure that so here is the the importance of antibodies as a measure of the population immunity how much help we remember the 1st way you see it is arguably very grave consequences of using we need a more nuanced model because there were black lives massive protests the other week and the common sense. Well without your nuances with the jest we must give up our basic freedoms as human beings not to demonstrate does it surprise you that this common sense model has been the pervade to the British Population that in fairness in other countries day after day just to qualify my responses for me a nuance model is the concepts but if your question is what d policy. Was policy making predicated on models that were just too common sensical to the point of being absurdly simple its very difficult mathematically that certainly is an argument i think you could easily defend. The scientific advice at that time because people had to assume the worst Case Scenario ok but i mean lets just gathered to that worst Case Scenario because i understand your model predicted we wouldnt probably need nightingale hospitals where there was a lot of focus on the ventilators nightingale laws laws where the focus could arguably have been on other things that may have saved more lives like caroms just quickly tell me why you realize that the generative modeling technique would show that the nightingale hospitals was. Kind of pointless right thats a very heart of very informed question. So. They distinct one of the nuances. The kind of modeling that we use approach the table is that we place the Company Stock useful simple s c i our models a walk im a context we equipped the models with everything that matters in terms of generating the dangerous hand so clearly it matters where are you what home i own a care home how you work it matters how you know what are testing a population data test people more likely to be affected less likely to be affected it matters whether you develop symptoms from being infected so by if you like in. Bedding these very beautiful very simple s. C. R. Like constructs into a full generative model that could then generate the data we were able to build and store built into these models the societal response including the occupancy of Critical Care units when you run those models and you estimate our sensitivity to the presence and actions of our sensitive to collectively you and me on average to the occupancy our Critical Care unit you run the model then you see that the occupancy of Critical Care pete at a level that was just underneath the existing capacity in this country are up of the 8 jets just one little point that thats actually i think an endorsement of practically how we handle that collectively as a couple and as a population. You know in the sense it was pitched just about right in the sense that the peak well flattened just to the extent that it undercut that critical threshold well we had the worst grab a cab or the death toll in the world maybe. Right your violate your your your moving on to another interesting question which is why. So. Then we have to go back to the sort of no nuanced question of what d kinds of factors would explain a differential mortality or fight challenges from one country to the other. The answer is probably actually not points of common sense but as you might imagine so intervention like social distancing lock down self isolation shielding all of these things operate to change the probability or the rate at which i will transmit the virus to you. And i use the right very deliberately because what were talking about is a change in the program a translation of the process of the speech up or slow that down it does not know that cells change the final employment technically they endemic equilibrium so what that means is the any control knob you have available of the government either better or you and i have available as parents or teachers is how quickly do we let this tide row over so that was if you like the principal motivation of flattening the curve it wasnt to actually reduce the area underneath. It was to reduce the amplitude of the peak so that we didnt overwhelm our Critical Care about city thank you so much for joining us for a press conference to thank you for the show will be back on monday when wiki leaks founder Julian Assange is tortured in london according to the un and now waiting extradition proceedings to face the espionage act in which india is again said to appear in an English Court after being too ill to attend a last hearing even via video link you dont have to wash your hands or join the other grandma following up on you tube Twitter Facebook instagram assad. Welcome to max kaiser financial survival guide. Looking forward to year thats without. Yanks this is what happens to pensions in britain delegates are watched as a report. Nuclear power plants will become a battleground in the u. S. In vermont people are demanding the shutdown of a local plant from my yankee is right now my focus because its a very dangerous oh no clare power plant the owner is attempting to run the reactor beyond its operational limit this case just sort of puts a magnifying glass on wheres the power in this country wheres it going is it moving more towards corporate interests who or is it more in the idea of a traditional but just appearing to mark or caesar power lie with the people this case demonstrates that struggle in very real ways our struggle on r. T. We go to work. Straight home. Frances much anticipated tracing power is used to send just 14 alerts in 3 weeks 1000000 people deleted from their phones we searched the streets of paris to find someone whos using. It no no no no no no we dont think. Americas reputation in europe still is a big blow by its handling of the corona virus a new poll suggests how does the u. S. Hits an all time high of covert cases before i found out it on thursday a lot. More Companies Join a boycott of Facebook Chris fairly to remove hate speech and its reluctance to take down some of Donald Trumps controversial
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