Continue to be accused of easing coronavirus restrictions from a truly to boost the neoliberal economies coming up in the show one of the worlds greatest living act as mark wright once tells going underground is the key to saving lives the economy of the arts up to the coronavirus by demick is not a return to the status quo but the Mass Mobilization of working people and brittanys is locked out of germany reluctantly rians is it so what does the future hold for the u. K. As we open shops and pubs while still registering the 100. 00 daily deaths we are going to bed and sages top model of renowned youre a scientist professor call 1st of all is a ball coming up in todays going underground but 1st this weeks or the end of the u. K. Governments daily Coronavirus Press briefings as Prime MinisterMorris Johnson announced for the reason of a lock down from american Independence Day on july the 4th many are arguing that going back to normal is not nearly enough in the wake of the deadly pandemic they claim we must use this opportunity to create a better world one of them is legendary shakespearean actor mark riley its who backed schools riposte coronavirus. A National Nature service that would according to the wildlife in Countryside Link create tens of thousands of jobs improve the health of nature people and the planet and contribute to a green sustainable recovery he joins me now via skype from london very excited to speak to you mark where the greatest actors on the planet you know the Mainstream Media conversation though mark is were going to get the economy going weve got to get back shopping just tell me about the National Nature service which is being promoted by the wildlife and Countryside Link well i was taught as a kid that 2 negatives make a positive and weve got 2 negatives got a massive amount of jobless and weve got a massive job to do in the environment our eco systems are very degraded we rank Something Like 189 out of 218 nations for the loss of biodiversity in our landscape and by loss of biodiversity whether youre in a human being were talking about cells in a human being or wildlife in the countryside means poor hell that means youre much more vulnerable when you dont have the bio diversity thats one thing we also have a massive job to help our landscape to sequester carbon and indeed to absorb water as the oceans rise if were to get anywhere near this target of keeping that the overall temperature of the 2 below 1. 00 degrees centigrade so weve got a massive job theres a massive vital job to do lets put the 2 together and get to work president roosevelt in 1983 put 300000 americans to work in 3 months in 800 camps and planted 3500000000 trees in 9 years and that was without all this communication and technology i dont see why we cant do it the government has to pay unemployment benefit anyway particularly to my profession theater were not looking at adding work until april next year judi dench said. This today i saw that shes thinking that it is may not reopen in her lifetime so weve got a massive creative intelligent Flexible Workforce just in my profession put them to work this autumn thats if we cant make art lets make nature thats my thing thats my thought well ill get a driver in a moment if i may but you see we have pioneering primatologist jane goodall on this program weve had angela davis the former black panther they kept on emphasizing the environment the deforestation that may have played a part in the creation of coronavirus but the nurse will maybe International Conversation is not the environment what i hear from a scientist a couple days ago is the likelihood of a vaccine is its a big guess its that theyre really in territory they dont know much about i think its going to become very clear to everyone that our immune system what we eat what we breathe what we drink is crucial to our surviving this pandemic obvious that may well be coming and if once you get into looking closely at your own health pretty soon you start to look at what youre breathing i certainly in here london i really have noticed the improvement of the air the improvement of the water and and of about 15 years ago i started to look at what i was eating and whether it was actually providing what it said it was providing on the label which in many cases it was not because of that are the way we the way we use the land we have a massive a massive change in the u. K. Out of narrative in how we use our land most of the land is used in the way it was used in the 1950 s. After the war when we were understandably as everyone was concerned about Food Production but now we dont need so much land for Food Production we should be moving about 25 percent of our Food Production land towards a rewilding or restored eco system towards wetlands towards forests towards a rewilding of the environment to help us meet these much. The important targets of surviving Climate Change so its a massive opportunity at the moment to get to work on on at the beginning of what the u. N. Has described as the decade of eco system restoration when virus johnson talks he talks about Big Multinational Companies when all trump talks at the white house with coronavirus briefings its Big Multinational Companies parallels between this National Nature service and what Bernie Sanders jeremy corbins Green New Deal thats the kind of thing youre talking about as we approach the hopefully the end of the pandemic. Im not so aware of what Bernie Sanders and jeremy corgan are saying now im im very aware that Caroline Lucas in the green party has been working on a Green New Deal with people like john of them part theyve been working since 2007 on the models that frank than roosevelt set down in 1933 that they not only planted 3500000000 trees they also did a lot of restoring of soil they prevented millions and millions of dollars of loss of juta fires with new services to prevent fires we have we have so many jobs to do in terms of our relationship with our environment i dont know why any Political Party is not thinking about this particularly when they have to they have to intervene now i know a lot of more right wing governments dont want to be seen as intervening in society they want to light a touch of government but everyones calling out to the government in to be known and support us and help us through this there are other benefits too in my mind as well in terms of the very important issues of racial diversity in our society this all the divides that have grown up in our society of the last few years between urban and rural between elderly and young between the different races in our society a National Nature service could be could start with diversity has its basic foundation and we could be many mixing in meeting these societies as we do works not just works in the countryside but also work works on urban wildlife for young people who have no gardens and no access to wildlife to see how nature behaves that would be another benefit of it in my mind but does the wildlife in Countryside Link have the ear of government we had Jonathon Porritt whos advised Prince Charles he also advised b. P. On our program he said there were hers on this program that b. P. Was greenwashing and people who have the ear of government arguably are the big fossil fuel companies not maybe the wildlife in countries idling. Well youre absolutely right they do and they have been greenwashing but the tide is turning isnt it i mean Renewable Energy is now cheaper than than oil. These companies have been warned by the banks themselves theyve been warned to be prepared for a massive change and that massive change is happening wind and solar power is now foreign it doesnt need subsidies anymore its actually in the market as a more affordable more economic revival solution. So you know my feeling is and this i got from Jonathan Porritt a Tipping Point will come a Tipping Point is going to come this is going to happen at some point we are all going to realize oh my god the ship is on fire if nothing else matters and the wise man is an irishman said to me recently fixes his roof when the sun is shining not when its pouring with rain i think probably the citizens are ahead of the of the broken dynamic between big business and government what is going to happen then do fiercer and film i mean. Can you have sympathy for a fair to take sponsorship from Big Multinational Companies who may be wearing the not the same with the wildlife and Countryside Links because theyre so desperate for funding i think you have to be careful whether youre an individual citizen or a or a community or a group about who you take money from dont you i mean of course there are Many Organizations and individuals with more money than they need and perhaps frightened to give that money away that that wealth does need to be shared in a very large way as well as a small way and supporting the arts supporting the imagination in society is a very wonderful thing was going to take a lot of the magination and a change in the way in our understanding of our story and so the great plays by chekhov or by shakespeare plays. Survive the greek plays it was in the usually about people facing the kind of climactic change were facing at the moment im all for supporting the arts dont get me wrong and i dont have a pinion that corporations are necessarily bad or governments of bad this systems just get outdated and broken but i think um i think the Business World and the government world. Will and that eventually come around to having to do something about this. Youre picking this up on me because i have been outspoken about b. P. And the r a c and i didnt like that sponsorship deal because i felt that b. P. Were using shakespeares name to give the impression that they were a very sensitive and cultured and awake Business Group at that time which i didnt feel they were i didnt feel their behavior warranted that that connection or you have the former boss of b. P. On this program we obviously are right then you want to refute any allegations against him ive got to ask you though about shakespeare because Boris Johnson the Prime Minister was supposedly writing a book about him before he became Prime Minister suddenly relatively suddenly youve said in the past that shakespeare is something you sort of ethical guidelines from his work during the johnson is to read some more shakespeare during the pandemic. He says that hes definitely a shakespearean type character isnt it johns and. Im not sure if all stuff ever becomes king and plays. But i dont know him so i can only imagine the pressures that hes under i had i wouldnt want to are so slag him off for that if hes read shakespeare or. Is intrigued by chicks and thats thats a very good sign yes i think there is a lot of are a lot to be learnt particularly for leaders from shakespeare i think of a lot of a lot of it focuses very much. On the ethics and the behavior and the outcomes of different leadership patterns your mind of suspected deforestation the environment would have created pandemics but i presume you didnt know coronavirus was coming when you plan to do your next project its a play about dr ignites semmelweis who is a hunger in dr who discovered that in vienna to cut it to try and tell it briefly it was working in the maternity in the Maternity Ward one was run by midwives who practiced on manikins and the other was run by young doctors who practiced on cadavers and what he discovered was that they were coming straight from doing autopsies to helping the young women give birth and that the death rates were incredibly high for the young women from sepsis from through a fever both them and their children and he 40 years before louis passed or dr lister i discovered bacteria he discovered that there was something he couldnt see it that you could smell it on the hands of the doctors and he called it cat of eric particles and he wrote to every doctor in the whole of europe and none of them have it why partly because it meant that they were guilty of having killed people on within the that they were trying to help but it shows how difficult it sometimes is for some even for science to make a move forward when the old story has a lot of guilt and shame around it so we should we should be wary of the shame and blame and all that aspect of the game because undoubtedly the new discoveries that theyre going to help and save us will mean that some of us have been doing some things very wrong while hungary and director didnt tell me about him why graylands thank you. My pleasure after the break the worlds most frequently cited neuroscientist professor call for us to advise the independent phage committee in britain who is going on the ground in the u. K. Governments coronavirus approach could see the country back in lockdown before the end of the year all of them all coming up but youre going on the ground. Secret prisons are not usually what comes to mind when thinking about europe however he even the most prosperous can be deceived weve seen this 0 song there were 2 view houses were our prison was located and the only cia people had access to the story for investigators sure hell they uncovered the darkest dealings of the secret services but i mean. You graded nor. He seem a bit sore knee yes or no for. Crying for justice on r. T. Joining me every thursday on the alex salmond show and ill be speaking to a guest of the world the politics sports business im show business ill see you then. Welcome back in the 1st half of the program we spoke to legendary actor mark riley and some other new and improved over the world that could be billed under lockdown but with daily death still a runner in the u. K. And whats the risk that we could be returning a lot done before the end of the enjoy now is the worlds most frequently cited youre a scientist who has a coverage and who is responsible for Mathematical Modeling of the independent Scientific Advisory group for Emergencies Committee thank you so much for coming on before we get on do are the state of Mathematical Modeling in the world today the obvious question is should we be abandoning lockdowns here is the World Health Organization is warning of an increased spike and is there any point in the Antibody Testing for immunity on 2 very Big Questions that i think in relation to lock down the modeling suggests that this is probably the right time to consider a graded lockdown so were not talking about a categorical complete abandoning or our narrative. Behavioral responses and social distancing or the wearing of masks made at this point the models when you quote behavior responses into those models it would suggest that this is about the right time we should be considering that and of course there are enormous pressures on the epidemiology to. Your consideration of getting the economy going getting Sick Children back at schools. Activating they have says i think it might be helpful just to categorize the different kinds 2nd ways that we might be frightened of the 1st sort of. A resurgence or ribera that would reflect a criminal sure were at station of lockdown policy. And that could arise emerge in the next few. Weeks or so as a direct consequences of our behavior responses or indeed our institutional responses theres another kind of 2nd wave which is probably more. Problematic and probably will be and testing policy makers in the long term and thats the kind of 2nd away that we so our spanish flu and some of a more recent influenza pandemics the mechanism that this is not so sensitive to unlocking explore the population or that immunity and it successive erosion over the next few months either through immunological presence is really not about it or indeed population taxes but at singapore and things and exchange of people between different populations that is the kind of lock down the kind of 2nd wave that would probably emerge if it does around christmas social shortly thereafter so a lot of factors there you have temperature and so on i just a quick practical one Mathematical Modeling is notorious for for discovering how difficult it is and the movement of air what do you made of the former big pharma top advisors and every advisor to mars johnson release a battery vallance seeming to change his views about the 2 meter distancing. Exponentially higher a one meter what what are we supposed to believe. Think he is put in a very difficult position. And very much like most scientists have stripped already away the evidence from different perspectives and certainly when your in the game of making or advising of a policy decisions its all a game of a risk in relation to social distancing one versus 2 metres it is certainly true that the probability of transmission when you are close to somebody will increase and the estimates are between 2. 10 and that range in itself gives an indication the degree of uncertainty. We have about that however i think its position is that social distancing is important in new arent saying they offset of the 1st wave that is mechanistically important. And as such he can motivate i think every direction from 2 to one metres if effectively if the thing that matters which is a probability that i will affect you if i am to question you can be reduced through not facing each other wearing a face mask in certain situations so it is that little it seems a bit like common sense well if you know there is someone i mean theres nothing more sophisticated than that so i know germany which is reporting far fewer new cases than britain has been easing a lockdown but then seems to discover that what is it meat packing areas you have very cold temperatures and thats the big impact on spikes in certain local areas yeah you know i just come back to your original observation that that certainly impresses itself upon me the more i look into this it is all commonsense i just taking that commonsensical notion through to the experiences of germany so what we are i think seeing there is a a fluctuation that is a reflection of the slow offset of the 1st wave that is due to actually jeanette in the population and an important kind of education edge is about that some people have just not yet been exposed that are less so as the virus me aches invades throughout any country in the u. K. And germany its going to come across pockets of people they will populations communities that were not previously exposed so i suspect were going to be seeing quite a lot of these little outbreaks with local bigger us response says ok you you actually work more nanometers presumably with brain imaging tell me about immunological dark matter because ive got to say weve had scientists on. This program nobel Prize Winners some of them who usually talk about Quantum Mechanics and show how the great the greatest initiatives science gives us are completely against common sense. Its well put into the observation right robbery cleared that dark matter and common sense to get out of that particular argument so it doesnt matter seconds into flavors. The 1st thing it was used or misused the mystically atom as a popular example of stuff we cannot see that we know must be there in order to explain that which we can say that dark matter in this instance also takes on a very particular meaning it speaks to certain populations of the population that behave as if they were in the shadows of the pandemic so an example of that maybe the people were talking about the core the denizens of the community that have not been exposed to the guys at this stage because they are sequestered theyre geographically isolated but there are other important forms of dog ish not even within the community or the population that is exposed potentially to the virus for example you may be not susceptible you have developed across immunity so putting these different kinds of dark matter into the model into the mix into the common sense start to give you a very nuanced picture of what might happen and how one would interpret levels of Antibody Testing which brings us back to the 2nd part of your very 1st question so if you want confirmation that the epidemic and the pandemic is unfolding in the way the thought it would because youve put all the right privatise all the things that matter into your model then one of the most important bits of evidence is the number of people that have attained a degree of immunity and all of those a proportional will have to the antibodies and you can go measure that so here is the the importance of antibodies as a measure of the population immunity how much help we remember the 1st way you see it is arguably very grave consequences of using we need a more nuanced model because they were black lives massive protests the other week and the common sense. Well without your nuances would suggest we must give up our basic freedoms as human beings not to demonstrate does it surprise you that this common sense model has been the pervade to the British Population that in fairness in other countries day off today just to qualify my responses for me a nuance model is the concepts but if your question is what policy. Was policy making predicated on models that were just too common sensical to the point of being absurdly simple its very political mathematically that certainly is an argument i think you could easily defend. The scientific advice at that time because people had to assume the worst Case Scenario ok but i mean lets just gathered to that worst Case Scenario because i understand your model predicted we wouldnt probably need nightingale hospitals where there was a lot of focus on the ventilators nightingale laws laws where the focus could arguably have been on other things that may have saved all lives like caroms just quickly tell me why you realize that a generous of modeling technique would show that the nightingale hospitals was. Kind of pointless right thats a very heart of variable form the question. So. They distinct one of the nuances. The kind of modeling that we use approach the table is that we place the combinational pupil simple s c i our models a walk im a context we equipped the models with everything that matters in terms of generating the dangerous hand so clearly it matters where are you what home like in a care home how you work it matters how you know what are testing a population data test people got more likely to be affected less likely to be affected it matters whether you develop symptoms from being infected so by if you like in. Bedding these very beautiful very simple s. C. R. Like constructs into a full generative local that could then generate the data we were able to build and store theyll go into these models the societal response including the occupancy of Critical Care units when you run those models and you estimated our sensitivity to the heavens and actually all our sensitive to collectively us on average to the occupancy our Critical Care unit you run the model then you see that the occupancy of Critical Care pete at a level that was just underneath the existing capacity in this country are up on the jets just one little point that thats actually i think an endorsement of d practically how we handle that collectively as a couple and as a population. You know in that sense it was pitch just about right in the sense that the peak was flat just to the extent that it undercut that critical threshold well we had the worst habit of death toll in the world maybe. Right your violate your your your moving on to another implicit question which is why. So then we have to go back to the sort of more nuanced question of what kinds of factors would explain a differential mortality of intelligence from one country to the other. The answer is probably actually not want to comment thats because you might imagine so intervention like social distancing lock down cell isolation shielding all of these things operate to change the probability of the rate at which i will transmit the virus to you. And i use the right there. Very deliberately because what were talking about is a change in the parameterized action the process thats eats it up also and. It does not you know not itself change the final point technically endemic equilibrium so what that means is any control over what you have available government have available for you when i. Teach as is well how quickly do we let thats tight rope so that was if you like the principle motivations of flattening the curve it wasnt to actually reduce area. It was to reduce the amplitude of the peak so we didnt overwhelm critical capacity thank you so much for joining us the best golfers to get us into the show will be back on monday when we get excited tortured in london according to the un now waiting extradition proceedings to face the espionage act in virginia hes again said to appear in an English Court after being too ill to attend his last hearing even via video link you dont have to join the other group were following up on you tube Twitter Facebook instagram something. You know what wall streets up to a bag of tricks now back in 2008 Global Financial crisis and remember that movie the big short and remember how it was obvious that everything was going to blow up and remember how the wall street people were conspiring and then it all blew up in a few people make billions and billions of dollars because they cooked the pork grabbed all that cash and were causing reports that you know what this exact same thing is going to happen again in 10 or 12 years and guess what here we are 12 years later. Frances much anticipated tracing out the she used to send just 14 in 3 weeks that is half a 1000000 people to. Search the streets of paris to find somebody. No no no no no no we took the fake. Americas reputation in europe the big time going off the coronavirus and you. Just the us its an all time high in the cases 40000 on thursday alone and will Companies Join the boycott of facebook for its failure to remove hate speech and its reluctance to take down some of