Ventilators were bought for corona virus that it turns out we dont need why are we more scared of what is less likely to kill us the key problem you know society is that we all have learned how to read and write but note how to become risk literate that is to understand the numbers so the numbers that made us feel the numbers of infections of tests and also to understand the kind of thinking about what might lead to ward problems youve talked articulately how to interpret mammogram results cancer risk flu risk which ill get onto in a moment had i better just ask you then are we more scared than we should be about coronavirus theres nobody who came to tell you exactly where this virus is growing so we need to live with uncertainty. But we can protect us against her reactions that creates more problems so the classical situation of the earliest 911 Many Americans after 911 stopped flying and what to do they use their cars instead ive underlies the traffic statistics and fog that for 12 months the most recent went up about 25 percent mostly on a Long Distance traveling and during that time about 1500. 00 americans more than usual lost their lives on the roads in did tend to avoid the risk of flying but this is a case that illustrates that our own reaction to a danger can create new dangers or be at the fear flights arguably mean less Climate Change for future generations do you think that that dollar trump then was right to compare when his terms what the chinese have done to the world with 911. 00 and pearl harbor when it came to risk im not sure quite in the same way your comparing risk as regards probability of death wouldnt think there is a point of saying that trump was right we might think about what our own people doing in order to avoid creating more pages for instance hospitals all over the world report including to your pig that in number of patients who come into the hospital Emergency Departments with see dear heart problems has decreased and the interpretation is that many people who should. Go to the hospital dont go d anymore because they fear getting infected by the virus and so on that may cause another death toll similar to it in the 911 event here but in a different way in the uk so it eases d the urge to kind of. Be aware that he. Owned earth behavior were not creating more problems than be already. You see some people might think that on a daily basis even that statement common sense of a kind is what where are you using in fact a lot of people say what politicians seem to be advising our top scientific adviser is everything they say seems a bit like common sense albeit that some of our politicians may not have ordered or prepared for the pandemic properly can you just take me back to the h one n one model that you did which seem to far be far more accurate than the google flu model and that one was using 550000000. 00 search terms how is it that something you can come up in on the back of an envelope presumably can be so much better than a probabilistic determination based on so much data by one of the Biggest Companies on earth google flu trends trying to predict the spread of through exactly the flu related doctor visits. Her good idea to people who might in the search terms if they have symptoms of it in it work and the most shameful reason is this is deep uncertainty so that flu puts the swine flu was not in the window but in this some. Good prints being calibrated on the pastor couldnt know that so what im working with is the using the intelligence of the human prey in which as you vote for many many years to drive other assumes actually in this case up of. Trends we tested a really simple are. Predicted to fluke related doctor visits which just looked at the most recent data point and that proved to be better than big data whats to listen to listen is. In chino we shouldnt be impressed by very complex algorithms they work if the route is stable the flip side of a complicated the modeling by multibillion dollar Multinational Companies is the simplistic statements we get at press conferences when Boris Johnson here in britain says hes following the science how should we interpret that and is that an example of your risk fix im not sure. But it is always for science its often just an excuse for following a certain direction with a certain goal for instance. Currently we are the face d numbers numbers of boat new infections about death rates whats needed is an understanding where do these numbers come from most of the time the numbers of people would need a and a positive coronavirus test that means they die from the bones or with the virus or some kind of mixture and this type of understanding is important to him to understand in the beauty case fatality rates are but then does that mean that our scientists our top model has. Infected by something i think youve said before that the human brain itself finds it more difficult to understand deaths over a longer time period than a shorter time period maybe a genetic predisposition been enhanced perhaps by social and economic priorities in a new your liberal europe suddenly its in britain in the United States where the death toll appears we have to separate dislike the loss of the principles that may cause fear from the risk literacy stanly of numbers and also. From day. Conflicts of interest that ended the behavior of politicians so the principle that make us fear they include the anxiety that is caused by dread risks at the same time it is not easy to elicit our fear from situations where as many and more people die distributed over the year for instance in germany we had 2 years ago an estimated 20000 deaths to the regular through 20000 that it can cause any big fuss or we havent ruled by millions of people who die on too close or a 1000000000 of people who are under. Basically under under the brink of dying from poverty that doesnt draw much attention so its certain things it is like the difference between. A plane crash which makes the media and cause a exidy and the steady toll of people dying on the roads which couldnt bother us where much so thats a kind of the psyche politicians when they were on the other hand. Are in a difficult situation today and maybe if you look back today swine flu we can see a politician keen. For instance confronted with a disturbance flying through there was tamiflu which was supposed to help against a severe consequences of the swine flu but there was no evidence and has stood no evidence for that but the British Government bought tamiflu and you can understand a politician can make 2 errors one is to not to buy it and him something happens and then its your fault or to spend too taxpayers money in the it doesnt know whats coming as it did it with a swine flu and thats more or less fired so this cook defensive Decision Making and in the end in the u. P. A. Heard there was an estimated 65000. 00 people who died from swine flu and it was it in less than 500. 00 and the government. Burned pritish pounds on medication where we had never proof that it actually helps i understand it was the same model as being used there again in britain for corona virus just finally then do you think theres a class bias in risk analysis obviously over there in germany a much more equal country in terms of gini coefficient. No doctors no frontline medical personnel have died from corona virus here in britain apparently nearly 200 have vain and of course disproportionately its been the poor and not the rich that i mean had by that what we have learned is certainly true of me and compared to the u. K. Is that i think of a model is that the idea here that a Health System should be optimized is a fatal idea or germany has been criticised but we years for having too many intensive care beds that were used all the time now we are glad that we are them so one chamber of this thing is if youre dealing with a situation of uncertainty dont try to optimize or get past optimization is always going to pass dont and if the future is difference you bust through the same listen hard beam drawn from the financial crisis were banks optimized capital by value at risk of collations and in something unexpected happened then they go bust so we need to learn this uncertainty and its different from cutlip of risk present gardner and i thank you it was a pleasure. After the bright as communist china continues to report 0 daily death stooges coronavirus we also ordering sociologist bridget blackman if showing this experience of western imperialism has shaped its approach to crisis. Through of going underground. Good food descriptions sound up even for the owners so how to choose this pet Food Industry is telling us what to feed our pets really more based on what they want to sell us and was necessarily good for the pet turns out that food may not be as healthy as people believe and we have animals that have you know diabetes and arthritis they have auto immune disorders allergies we are actually creating these problems its a huge epidemic of problems all of them i believe can be linked to fairy simple problem of diet and some dog owners so heartbreaking stories about their pets treats the larger corporations are not very interested in proving or disproving the value of their food because theyre already making a 1000000000. 00 on it and theres no reason to do that research. 35 years ago there was a Global Solidarity to annihilate the scourge of fascism from the air the soviet union and its western allies prevailed against nazi germany today such Global Solidarity is sadly missing in base the courage. In what it wants is very necessary solidarity. During the vietnam war u. S. Forces also belong to neighboring laos it was a secret war. And for years the American People did not know. Until outsell my state. The. Country per capita. Millions of unexploded bombs still in danger lives in this Small Agricultural country. Even today kids in laos fall victim to bombs dropped decades ago is the us making amends for the tragedy in laos help to the people need in the too little land of my. Welcome back while in the 1st half we tried to help you understand risk based on official information given to you what if you dont trust what your government tells you today about saving your life from coronavirus here in britain it often falls to Boris Johnsons Health Secretary matt hangup to tell you how to live your life but he arguably has 4 more not being trusted here is a story culture secretary accused at an official committee of misrepresenting the u. K. s far reaching inquiry into ethics in journalism the socalled never seen report that was sparked by u. K. Media hacking of the phone never murdered teenager you were a new secretary of state and you stood up in the house of commons and you represent its a prime levasseur in this position and i think even misrepresented his position well so and ive told you why because supply leveson fundamentally disagreed with the governments conclusion and those are my words that theres a surprise since words so why should i believe you today because everything i said then was accurate and i. And i represented. The position of his letter as a whole that he believed that the inquiry should continue and i was standing up to explain the dying thought that taking everything into account all the changes. Since the leveson inquiry all the chain. As in law or the change in the fact that it so now exists i take them all into account i decided that the best thing is not to have a bad i know your position is all working quite well what im saying you know is that you mis represented sobriety levasseur this position to the commons on the well thats your view were not going to come to agreement on it i think i faithfully represent set out as as you read out and but i i understand i can see that you would rather avoid done it differently know what i would wrong with would be that you were straightforward its up to the British Public to decide whether hancock is being straightforward about coronavirus today but his performance at the brand leveson inquiry was widely seen as protecting the interests of britains media all agog like Rupert Murdoch and the barclay brothers and today amidst a Global Pandemic britains newspapers continue to be the least trusted across a European Survey of 33 countries the United Kingdom is below malta and north of macedonia according to your barometer in the past few days posing questions about what role inarguably captured media plays when tens of thousands of killed by disease britain of course is also one of the most an equal countries on that list and some media oligarchy may be feeling today that theyre like 1st class passengers on a sinking ship thats the title of a new book by new york sociologist professor Richard Lachman and i caught up with him to ask him about his book subtitled elite politics and the decline of great powers richard welcome to going underground to tell me about the 1st class passengers in the sinking ship ok well this is a book that tries to explain why it is that the United States is in decline and i do it with historical comparisons to the 2 previous starman and powers britain and the netherlands and in essence what i find is that a leader. Able to grab control of not just Government Resources but government powers and in that way it becomes more and more difficult for governments to make Strategic Decisions that allocate resources in ways that are needed to maintain global dominance i should say that in range there are whole numbers of empires that get discussed in the book but for you national decline cannot be stopped by just mass organizing no i think where mass organizing matters is what conditions of life will be like after the clyde will elites be able to become wealthier and wealthier and make more and more decisions or will the mass of people be able through electoral means or strikes or other sorts of Mass Mobilization to be able to demand improved social programs a more Egalitarian Society and with the debates between narrow elites controlling all policy within say the United States or or britain is it a race then between Climate Change and the empire collapsing well i think the empire is collapsing regardless of Climate Change but the effects of Climate Change are certainly going to overwhelm many governments around the world and the question is whether in coming decades the u. S. Government will have the so its of resources and flexibility to be able to respond in ways that prevent mass suffering and so just to be clear were talking about hedge was having sort of suicidal imperial. Imperial instincts and theres no real rule for trade unions where little policies while thats going on you know there are there is a role for that there their role isnt to try to maintain their countrys global dominance their role. As to be sure that ordinary people are able to lead decent lives and have a larger share of what working people actually are producing but in the context of this book if you want to say the democrat primary campaign a candidate perhaps like son does is a is not going to be fit enough to be able to conquer the elite powers that will be trying to constrain even a slightly social democratic model i dont know health care for instance let alone these wider ideas about n. Z. Imperialism really the only good news is that sociologists are very bad at being able to predict mass movements they are wrapped in ways that we really cant predict so you know that certainly is a possibility and there is levels of despair and anger in this country that should provoke widespread social movements whether those will happen in the next few years im not sure but thats really the one way in which the shape of decline can be shifted away from. Most people just being more and more miserable and elites getting richer and richer toward one where the decline continues the u. S. Is no longer a dominant global power but ordinary americans lead much happier and more decent lives ok so we shouldnt be really reading the book as a as a manual then but you do appear to be saying that whereas big movements of the working class in the United States have been left to the wayside have declined china and india have learnt from the imperial power over those countries by britain by the United States and that in a way is is one of the reasons they are a ascending during this decline in nato. Yeah i mean certainly the historical pattern is the countries that are rising learning how to produce things how to order their economies how to build their governments by looking at the ones that were previously most successful but i think were at a real turning point in global history that over the past 500 years of capitalism when one dominant power lost control there was that a struggle among a couple of rising ones and then one won out and became the new dominant power i think now were going to be entering an era where there wont be at jamaat anymore that you know it doesnt seem that china or india will achieve that at least in the next decades and were going to have a world that where theres much more flux you know little about presumably the decline in funding for amtrak your National Railway system moving here theyre talking about a high speed rail way system that china has already offered to build in 5 years much less than britain is full cussing in for less money what kind of pressure can donald trump put on powers that seek their infrastructure being built by china say which it is actually with 5 g. In this country huawei. Threw the phone down on Boris Johnson here can can the United States try and prevent Infrastructure Projects being built by the perhaps future hedge ammans like china i think the u. S. Will try but its going to fail and if trump gets reelected i think countries around the world at that point are going to decide that they have to move very decisively to try to order their economic and Geopolitical Affairs so that they have much less to do with the United States you know when bush was 1st elected in invaded iraq i think many people around the world for this. Its just a fluke and that obama came in and there is the view well the United States is back to normal from 1st election was seen as another fluke but if he gets reelected i think the reality will sink in the president s like bush and trump are the norm for the United States and obama is the brief exception and so theyre going to have to figure out how they can organize themselves so that when their future trumps the doesnt affect them as much as it does now and one of the ways to do that is to exclude the United States as much as possible. Obama was a was a wartime president does seem. To the global south how does the media play into your thesis about elite power that well in 2 ways i mean one the the media very narrowly oh and in the United States and with the end of the new deal regulatory system where you have the fairness doctrine add limits and how many stations can be owned by any one company that you have a move away from media that are locally based and have to give air to a variety of views to these sorts of ideological Networks Like fox that could have stations covering the entire United States and just present a single party line without having to offer alternative viewpoints and so between that and a couple of Companies Dominating the internet people are the day to day basis exposed to much narrower points of view that are much more open to manipulation and so it makes it harder to have. Real debates. You know what alternative points of view there are for the most part confined to sort of their alternative media the unfortunately dont get very much of an audience and then while working class organizations organizers try and retain what little they have left after the 28 graces would rule do you think sabotage amidst elites can play in trying to create a better world within the elites as it were but i mean certainly historically conflict among the leads provides an opening for the mass of people to achieve political victories i think what were seeing now is not really conflicts among the leads in the u. S. But rather various the leads gaining total control over narrow sectors of the economy and being able to block government from interfering with. That sort of structure doesnt really provide much of an opening for. Non elites to play of significant political role and fortunately so would the idea be to smuggle oneself into the lead to i dont know huge Political Violence stronger than peaceful political organization. I mean i dont think thats going to help very much and historically in the us when theres been violence from below after kids to violence antiwar violence in the 1960 s. Thats backfired and its led to a turn to the right so that has never been a successful strategy i think you know the only thing that can be done is to make the effort to try to organize however hard it is and probably the best place to put that in is through in trying to rebuild unions that would be the probably most effective strategy in the United States that. Reza Richard Lachman thank you its a pleasure to talk with you. Professor Richard Lachman speaking to me that and his book quest last passengers on the sinking ship and the politics of the decline of great powers is out now thats over the show will be back on wednesday with needing human rights lawyer Geoffrey Robertson q. C. To discuss the legal ramifications all through the virus when it comes to Civil Liberties i think. The worlds most famous publisher julian assumptions will then wash your hands and join me on the ground by following up on you tube Twitter Facebook soundbite instagram. We go to work. Straight home. On tightening the screws france begins easing itself out of lockdown with the government convinced that its called the vargas on the run money that i fear a lessening of restrictions could backfire. Hes not the time simply to look down this week the push Prime Minister that reveals his plan to help steer the country back to some semblance of normality but the lockdown stays put for now with a new coded alert system to moments of progress. On the city 3000000 americans have been left jobless by the crisis the matter of the holidays to City Employees billionaires to reimagine post virus america