All across the world whats the whats the gambit go ahead. Well thank you yeah the timing the gambit of the gambit as well as a separate thing all this turmoil and black swans concurrently happening around the world really kind of begs certain geo political questions in my opinion you have coronavirus more or less announced really kind of command saying on new years eve and then the rollout is fairly rapid and. In a sense the attention being kind of collapsing of as you said already low Energy Demand but as a demand especially within chinas collapsing then you have the announcement of the pandemic and the timing then of opec really saudi arabia and to a certain extent now u. A. E. You know just insisting on the pullback which would in turn affect the desired medium term desired from russia to capture more of the Global Market share within the energy space and at some point there was a budding of heads russia i sensed saw through you know a certain coordination issues you had unofficial accusations of coronavirus having been triggered out in the west from russia as well as from iran and russia did you know they do their math they do their homework and they sense that they can write out a price war much better than the very over leveraged you know 50000000000. 00. Budget constraint to saudi arabia that needs 83. 00 a barrel of oil in order to balance its budgets as well as fund its longer term visions of getting off of oil and expanding its economy under the vision of mohamed bin solomon so its really people have to look at this as a sense of it these are not just necessarily coincidences in my point of view because the ruble was strengthening last year russia. Has been on a de dollarization platform in order to diversify away from dollar reliance in part to fight sanctions thrown against it as well as its partners but also to strengthen its own ambitions to have its currency the currency of its allies really rival if not its the 47 year old petro Dollar Standard which is the ascent effective monopoly globally with regard to oil or gas pricing so theres a lot of you know its a game of chicken really funny scenes theres a lot who is going to be able to see exactly and theres a lot of moving parts of the as youve just explained here a couple is go to you in beirut here i mean what. Please explain to me why saudi arabia thinks that russia for example is going to blink 1st now its lifting costs are very very low but its budgetary constraints are extraordinary considering what the the the crown prince wants to achieve there and russia has got a pretty good piggy bank to ride out this these tribulation the Price Fluctuations that were experiencing right now i dont understand the saudi reasoning here go ahead and beirut well obviously it could be there is no reasoning they make in the same mistake they made in 2014 they put themselves in a big deficit in a big big goal and they do in the same mistake all over again there is no economic victory before the sued by and turning into a confrontation with russia into this and is it will backfire its actually backfired and probably they have to go into the open market and borrow more money and be more that we all know that theyre a break even to balance their budget has to be out of around 80. 00 now the oil is close to in the same area might be lower so actually they cannot be in deep trouble especially they have in a war or with the money they have in the war now was russia and probably they they will face a very difficult situation especially now iran call it traded on the exchange and weve seen in the couple days how this aramco share has tumbled and all the world that. Actually projected this is going to be the stock thats going to bring saudi arabia back into into the market and use all the wealth and investment from our uncle to rebuild Sudhir Arabia now our uncle is in a deep deep trouble and the sudanese in deep trouble i think my best estimate. They miscalculated they should gone along with the russian coordinating their fruit that will be more helpful at this point you know lets go to toronto i was under its very interesting because it is Public KnowledgePublic Knowledge that russia has planned for Something Like this and they have a budget set separate budgets at a certain price of oil i mean it can go as low as 25. 00 in the russians can can ride it out ok i mean they dont want it to be that low but they made budgetary considerations to be able to deal with that the saudis should have known that its not a secret go ahead in toronto. Yes well i think the saudis have no idea what theyre doing and i. Had to dig up some history and get some compared there is no snare seem to me plausible that could produce some vantage or saudi arabia right now. One of the scenarios is an intern 1980 s. The saudis and a lot of production to sustain prices but. At that time they reflect what is to invite more good users into the into the game forcing more competition on them so that backfired in the eightys now theyre trying to the scorched earth. Trajectory which seems to be the directed to me to meet seems more directed toward the u. S. For users and one else because theyre the biggest losers and us banks that gave them the loans in fact this could really trigger another 2000 financial crisis and were seeing were seeing the effects in the market already and youve got ahead of me because youre reading my mind across the world there because thats exactly one of the things that ive been thinking about here lets go back to earth vine i mean are you is the u. S. Shale industry really the target of all of this the saudis have been complaining about it endlessly. Its expanded into the oil market to tremendously over the last 10 years this is the real target of saudi arabia not the russians the americans go ahead or enter a buying. I think the the shale issue is part is a large part a red herring peter because. You know your other guests are hinting at it there this is a currency and really currency standard for Energy Trading war thats happening but that cannot be announced in the mainstream Corporate Press u. S. U. K. Or europe because of the sensitivities either like you know discussing the matters of of the financial risk posed to the Banking System you know really from rivals across your asia rivaling that the Dollar Standard is equivalent to discussing the Nuclear Codes and Corporate Press so they have to go about it saying that a look russia now. Is targeting our shale sector russia is doing is essentially geo political and geo economic jujitsu or judo or quito you choose the martial art the west has traditionally as your other guest referenced utilize the oil price for geo political purposes mid eightys it was a tactical drop in the energy price to torpedo the soviet union you had it reprise began you know with iran and kind of 7677 to take care of a wayward disobedient shah of iran back then and then just 6 years ago you had a aggressive drop that was coordinated in the price of oil to affect the books of russia iran venezuela nigeria really kind of nations that have been leaning eastward or leaning certainly away from the washington consensus this time you had enough slack to where russia was reading the tea leaves preparing itself going in despite seeing eye to eye with the saudis on various things over the past few years sensing that this could be a tactical maneuver why again im a broken record on this no one within saudi arabia runs saudi arabia saudi arabia takes dictate. From banks within london and new york and this is you know thats why theres infighting within the house a saudi have mohamed bin solomon resting in other members of the house of saudi is because there is the wanting to lean further towards the east because the numbers in the economics in the longer term are more sustainable makes sense whereas you have the traditional relationship you have the post world war 2 establishment you know between the u. S. And saudi arabia that has evolved into what the petro dollar set up after the Gold Standard ended in the early seventys and that paradigm is starting to give none of this can be discussed out in the open you dont have analysts on bloomberg or c m b c or in the f. T. Or what not bluntly discussing the risks but as your other guests hinted theres already a you know a kara selling or a cascading effect within western finance a 6 month spell of oil below 40. 00 could devalue as much of the western Financial System because 1. 00 trillion dollars is the amount of energy or debt thats tied up just between you know larger banks as well as mid tear banks and Energy Producers and when the u. S. Has nothing else really the west has nothing else but to throw the kitchen sink yet in order to try and prevent a an eclipse thing of the Dollar Standard what its doing and shooting itself in the exactly one of the things thats very interesting is that you use the dollar is a political weapon it comes back like a boomerang and hits you this is what ive been saying for years here you shouldnt use it as a political weapon or gentlemen were going to go to a short break and after that short break well continue our discussion on crude carnage stayed with our. Nothing. At all but was still a few of. The films that. Have. A lot of it all well. With. The not one south. Nothings off not done one might have snakes on the definitions enough im by any. One seeking out in the. South. And. Taking in the eco city. Then youre going to bring. Only think im. Young right now i think. The not the. South is out. In this just feeling if one means a leftist i mean that the deep down when he faced them tokyo found it was going to keep going. The way. It is what it was because did a piece of dancing quadrille cultural freezing from the premise. Budget we talk about trouble hes gonna demystified this whole political space if you work clear before like these folks are no better than us so you know you can reach out to friends say you know take responsibility maybe run for office at the end of the day you know i dont see how. Weve allowed a system where these people get away with you know misrepresenting us why to step up and do it yourself. Welcome back to cross talk where all things are considered im Peter Lavelle to remind you were discussing crude carnage. Ok lets go back to come out in beirut on this program i always try to avoid hyperbole but it seems to me considering the behavior of saudi arabia over the last couple of years under the nominal leadership of the crown prince here hes putting the entire kingdom it risk isnt he this is an extraordinary gambit we just pajamas gave us the numbers there and i think that just the top level i mean when you see the whole financial ization of the Energy Markets here it doesnt take much to rattle the cage and the cage is being rattled go ahead in beirut. Obviously hes taken there he use risk which is kind of backfired as the early probably just going to hear it from the president of the United States because its going to backfire not on them its going to backfire. Mr trump himself because he had built his his reputation as hes going to make the u. S. Independent. Term of oil and gas and today there is screaming in the United States from all these oil oil company who is actually the most of the their stocks in the red some of them is down 50 percent some of them down 70 and 80 percent and some of them have really that basically theyre going to go into bankruptcy protection so i think they probably somebody from those oil lobby they wanted to mamak been some man had because they but im. And to business of this is in reality it does help russia on the other hand because you know you know the United States mr trump he tried to put sanction against against russia and nord stream and now they. Gave a gift in and a sense to the restaurant because in a way this will eliminate some of the competition in direct plea for or for the russian by having a probably further investment in the shale gas in the United States if its going to be a very impossible to continue as mr trump tried to do today i think the amplification is going to be tough for the sudanese they can to face the bleeding of their Financial Resources there or theyre there and downwind is going to be depleted gradually vest what what we will see those 500000000000. 00 actually they cannot be at least its going to be affected by by this downturn in oil prices and i think its going to be a lot of anger in the in the in the in the United States the situation is very bleak for him personally because that gamble at this point it doesnt help him it doesnt help his reputation it doesnt help aramco stocks and it doesnt help that International Economy in the end yes the International Economy needs some economic boost but you have to remember these these stocks have basically a lot of countries live on them including the United States i was looking at some research there is 6 states depend on the price of oil and gas and today probably some of these jobs millions of jobs that were created by shell gaza devolution probably probably going to see. For that revolution and defeat for the. That evolution probably a lot of those lobbyists are pointing at mohamed bin settlement thats probably the screaming that happened at the white house just recently. As. To stay because they came and met with the president and they have a lot of and that against mamak been some man because they accuse him of being responsible for the crash of the oil and gas market yet and its going to take a while to rebuild it even with a reverse here lets go to toronto youre outside or you were nodding your head in agreement there go ahead come out we just heard go ahead well i mean i agree because again as i mentioned earlier i dont see any logic whatsoever her been summoned to pursue this policy now putting it more in context the Oil Production increase and the he was also announced in conjunction with the arrest of rivals to the throne or at least those who have been so mine considers rivals sort of thrown his cousin naive who was once head of military intelligence one very close to the americans and he was the one that cooperated with the United States in citing terrorisms arabia for many years and a few other princes now theyre in house arrest but this strategy to isolate these very key figures in the kingdom and then to announce this policy it seems to me that hes really challenging the United States more than anyone else and. Im wondering if this is blackmail to get trump to do something political terms in the region. I dont we dont bring much about iran anymore on wednesday i believe the. There was a strike an american base in iraq where 2 american servicemen were. Killed and the british soldiers well will that have any implication as it did in. The late december against iran is. Trying to get the United States to do more in iran threatening these kind of economic weapons. Looked at all those scenarios and again there is he so man must be a total gambler because and knowing why because he he himself probably cannot come up with explain the logic behind this. You know why are we looking at apollo another 2008 financial scenario here because it so much of the economy is leverage to energy and to the price of energy here i mean is it is this something that you that worries you go ahead in irvine. Yes we were somewhat referencing at myself and i believe your guest in toronto earlier you already have essentially triple be rated bonds within the Energy Sector thats just just you know barely investment grade. As of the timing of the dropping of prices within the Energy Sector aggressively over the past 2 weeks you have those triple be rated bonds now effectively trading as junk bonds yeah now you give that enough time you know at a price sub 30. 00 really some 40. 00 over 60 a month period and the math does itself theres a collapsing within the wider credit space and just yesterday had trump sitting with you know the c. E. O. Of bank of america to his immediate right the head of citi group to the right of him solomon of Goldman Sachs right across from him having a century a reprise of the sort of meeting that was taking place 12 years ago with the heads of banks reassuring the president as well as the country on camera that quote you know our books are safe or in solid shape which is you know trillion in a cage and then you know youre in trouble you know youre in one of the debt from 12 years ago wasnt taking care of it when they do that you know you know in just a couple of things real quick i had good. So your other guest was referencing there were sanctions thrown yes the timing of the sanctions thrown against rose naf against gazprom naf against gazprom you know the clamping down on the north stream to the timing from the west from the u. S. From washington against these russian firms happen to just overlap and i dont think its a coincidence with these firms going off of the dollar as far as their dealings with europe and the rest of the world for oil and natural gas and the ruble per se strengthening as i mentioned earlier so its somewhat to most viewers you know the minutiae of finance within the energy space and banking but it really needs to be brought to the fore i would urge your viewers to really look behind kind of prescribe headlines to see this as an unprecedented war between the strongest. Currency on record the dollar dissipating against rival currencies wanting to take its place certainly with regard to the most important commodities on earth oil and natural gas. Come out its go back to you in beirut where is this going to go i mean ive read some reports that the saudis will come up with some kind of compromise up 3 is 6 months but you know m. B. s doesnt strike me as that kind of person i mean hes decided in let the chips fall where they may and i think that. Actually on point here it has a lot going on inside internal saudi politics as well its quite frightening actually when you read about it and learn about what hes doing here he doesnt seem like a person that wants to change his mind or can have his mind changed the americans put pressure on him go ahead in beirut. I think its this is this is. The election in the United States because as i said the early president put his a beautician on the line by. Having the United States to be a sovereign state in terms of its need for oil and gas and today as your guest mentioned they are all these companies that are actually in the red and most of them in junk status which is devastating for for for his. Promise that hes going to make the united state independent this is against the objection of many people in the United States because he compromised the environment now he compromised the environment and he compromised this company by having a partnership by ways of mohamed bin son of man all those 500000000000. 00 that he had received supposedly as an investment from from from. They have they have been destroyed in this matter miscalculation and the probably the losses for american couple a company could be more than that and probably going to be devastating for a for the u. S. Company and they need a lot of time to work them out and the other side maybe the russian will feel some pain but they cannot be actually there that kind of come out winning the competition because all along. President trump who was trying to push europe to buy american shale gas that expense of their security where we noticed that he was a pressure in germany merkel other countries in that region and this is now maybe this is worked out for the russian without wanting to have this confrontation they can use it and play it but it and so do fades and then the american phase and probably this is going to put probably the whole for president from being elected again on the line because you have to remember he. Brag about the market is up there of the bark at the really in big trouble and the oil sucked out our brain given what were about to the market so sees it probably going to grab that he can got a good deal of corporation a week let himself i have to jump in here and i mean he has run out of time one lesson to be learned here Energy Security and sovereignty is up most in russias done that many thanks to my guests in beirut irvine and in toronto and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember rostock rules. Thanks thanks. Thanks thanks. Neal. Please please thank you thank you lou. Please. List slim claims. List. And a very warm welcome to you watching on since last. Nothing. At all. On. What. Its. Like. Oh good i. Thought it was. A fairly super cool for sure that all of that was attracting there was a News New York at the sun shining star one is sure to be achieved if we just look you feel and i mean the streets full wolf we look for them now dont they do it is me going for bush but i will push the physical bush are going to get us no. Good the solution is. To unleash the full power of the federal government to the separate today i am officially declaring a National Emergency the us steps up its response to what the spread of the crown a virus and following suit with other countries across europe and asia. As the greek island of lesbos records its 1st infection locals fear that they will not be able to cope while contending with and. Overcrowded refugee camp. If it gets like it too it will be doomed because the island only has one hospital this place slightly least close so a lot of people yeah you dont know we saw. Also u. S. Markets react to a show of support from washington making gains after stocks took in their worst