Transcripts For RT The Alex Salmond Show 20240713

Conscious that some of our unionist brothers and sisters are perhaps not as secure are happy with all of us but generally i think its fair to say that there is no appetite for conflict that is merely mcdonald to us sickle this is the main part of the just said there postelection stall in the Irish Parliament the doyle 450000 people did vote for finnick in this election just come by not many fewer than 15 of all not all that many fewer than should fame and much more than any other party or group of independents in this house and those 450000 people didnt vote against change they voted to say that they were satisfied with some of the changes that have taken place in the past 2 years but they wanted more change in other areas not least in health and housing. Some of them thought they did a good job in the round. And there people who shared our vision and shared our values and agreed with our policies and agreed with our ideas and we will honor that mandate and i hope that others will recognize that while we may be diminished a mandation 450000 votes is not a small one so suggesting some to today that we step aside. That we abstain that we somehow allow others to form a government we will not do that but we believe that the next government must be based on the belief that steve action is required to improve key services and to address emergencies and Housing Health Climate Change and the cost of living we are very clear in that we reject the idea that major increases in taxes especially on enterprise can be introduced without causing dramatic damage especially to workers at the public finances you see thats really what the problem is here because of course go from information is about numbers we cannot of course go from information is a bad policy coherence no ones arguing to the contrary but government information is also about power and who wields us and the reality is that feeling of phone and send again have run the show for almost a century and by christ theyre not minded to let go thats really all of this is about so what are the consequences of this dramatic election alex because 1st to Professor John toll of the university of liverpool. Professor john told how big a shock to the political system of the public of violent has the selection result being this is a monumental shake up of politics in the republic of ireland for nearly a century the 2 big parties finn a foil and finn a gala dominated no one really thought that sheen fame would be on the brink of being in government in both parts of the on the violent she could be in government in the south theyre already in government in the north and that fundamentally changes the outlook on irish politics both north and south of the border was seen in exchanges from the postelection debate on the dial the Irish Parliament doesnt seem to be any love lost between the 3 leaders of the no 3 main parties in the public yeah thats right i mean this huge antipathy from the i stopped parties ition fane like to call them toward shin fein finnick gale and finn a foil wont do business with sinn fein they say they wont form a coalition which in fame because of chin fades controversial past its former associations with the ira shin feigns messages respect our mandate and shin fein is looking now for a seat in government that will transform things on the on the vine looking is any question about that because shin feigns agenda was this is not an election victory built upon support for a United Ireland its built upon other things nonetheless at the heart of shin feigns agenda is pressure for a United Ireland if not something or a pilot box in the view of the city guilty of allowed to the present dish of. After the leader of the in a file to see the they would have shouldnt government in the public of while the police were promoting shin feed back into government in Northern Ireland absolutely and thats a question that fitted for oil and finagle have never addressed satisfactorily and thats part of the reason why the electorate lost faith in for 4 and finished you cant say that shin fein is perfectly respectable in the north and that you know. This must share power with should fade but then on the other hand say you want to inflame with a bargepole down south in the electorate are not stupid they can see that thats a paradox they see thats a something that cannot its a conundrum that cannot be solved so therefore you know the electorate said actually we think should faine origin legitimate Political Party and thats why a quarter of people voted for shin fein and should famously bitterly regretting not fielding more candidates in the south they only feel that 42 because the election surpassed their expectations i think eventually figure for oil off in a gale will have to do business with sinn fein but the moment theyre still treating them as toxic i think theyre still marooned in 1980 s. 1990 s. Mindset in their attitudes to shin fein. 3 weeks after the election still lost sight of a government being formed whats your best guess as a professor studying irish politics what government is likely to of nerves from this very very confused outcome over the 2 possible options should faine will try i think to form a government with various parties on the left im not sure the numbers are quite there for that but i think she and fame will definitely try and do that Mary Lou Mcdonald is perfectly capable of forming alliances with a wide range of left wing parties if that cannot work that it may be back to the old ways of a fin a 4 wheel fin a gale administration we had in the past finagle as the main party with affinity for playing a supportive role in government in recent years thats hardly had a recent resoundingly vote of confidence from the electorate so to simply carry on as if the election hadnt happened i dont think is a credible position so thats why i still think the shin fein will be in government in some form in a coalition probably with parties of the left as one of shouldnt think strongpoints late no is there certainly one party which doesnt fear another election if a government cant be formed. Absolutely kim fame will feel more candidates and i think theyll get even more seats if there was to be another election this year and thats something that leader of iraq or is a leader if in a gale and me hold martin as leader if in a foil must really really fear they know theyre going to keep shin fein out of government this is probably their own chance theyre going to have to do some sort of deal together but i dont think the electoral particular like that and i dont think it would be particularly stable if you have more of the same a finn a gale and finn a foil in government therefore i think that you know its quite a strong possibility that there will be another election at some point this year and all the indications are in fame will do very very well indeed i think shifting failure here to stay the idea that this was some sort of protest vote that pushing fane in is is for the birds this is a longer term realignment of irish politics in which were not talking about a big 2 parties anymore were talking about a big 3 parties of which in fame is one in which in fame may eventually become the dominant party supplanting i the fin a foil off in a gale this is a longer term project yes its true that should feigns vote was built upon annoyance over issues and on housing and homelessness but it wasnt just a protest vote its a wider reconfiguration of irish politics so what does that mean for the prospects of a board of paul paul or the reunification of violent and how will that go down in the public and how would that go down in Northern Ireland i think is a question of when not if there will be aboard a poll in terms of Northern Ireland constitutional future ive little doubt that in the south us b 2 referendums remember that has to be majority consent for irish unification both north and south of the border in the south and expect them to be on the opinion poll evidence a majority in favor i dont quite there yet in the north should change program wants a border poll within 5 years whether that about a poll within 5 years i think is open to question because in the north its in with. In the gift of the british secretary of state who may be reluctant to risk one within Northern Ireland so i would suggest a border poll is likely not perhaps within the next 5 years but certainly within the next decade and shin fein continues to make the advances that theyre making then they might be able to or majorities north and south i stood still think they need to convert a number of voters in the north to get them over the line but people are talking seriously now not just about a voter poll but about a United Ireland arising from that border poll and lastly professor will you be lecturing to your students on the university of liverpool over. The last few years did you ever think it likely that youd be discussing with them that eminent possibility of shouldnt be in government in the public a violent and Northern Ireland civil to me its like that when i started out in academia shin fame were a pariah party they were polling less than 2 percent in the Irish Republic and they had a vote in the north but it was always a minority vote even amongst the National Population things have changed and changed utterly should faine is now the the most Popular Party on the on the violent shift they will be producing a prospectus for irish unification as a consequence of its position electorally and all of the parties are going to have to respond to what should faine wants in terms of our huge occasion even if they dont welcome the prospect of unification themselves so we should face setting the agenda on the on the violin for the next few years Professor John Tong University of liverpool thank you very much indeed pleasure. The new ideas government when formed will have huge implications for the politics of the norse join us after the break when we continue our discussions on the future of irish politics. A lot. Of indians later just almost. Just. Actually knowing. Theres enough dont you know you not. Can if you had a way that was more greek if the. Was not a master plan a global a about today only the above could watch. Rather than to be. The one that having. Given to people. Who give the nightly. What the how do we call our de us to analysis our. Own meanwhile corn dogs for. Well not a year or so and i think just. What weve got to do is identify the threats that we have its crazy confrontation let it be an arms race in this on off and spearing Dramatic Development the only really im going to resist i dont see how that strategy will be successful very critical dying time to sit down and talk. Welcome back in the last few years slugger to his blog has a style that says self as a go to site for information on Northern Irish politics we ask editor mick keelty what the result in the south means for the north. I delighted to be joined by the editor of violence praed me a Political Blog feel welcome but for the alex i was from alex so that side of the selection of 3 weeks ago shouldnt fit in the political wing of the provisional ira the cast of these politics for generations become the leading off the in terms of the popular vote how big a shock is that to the political system i think to the political system in the republic its been a huge shock. I think its delighted Many Political journalists just because its so interesting and it kind of so overturns most of the expected outcomes that were predicted at the beginning many of the political journalists in dublin were predicting that this was. A whole martens feel for the partys election to loose and indeed they did lose they lose they lost a huge amount of ground i think of the of the traditional pati of government in the public and along with feel a guild of great rivals have been the kind of old fart in the fuckin coal at that all of. Elections for a while since independence 100 years ago absolutely 122. 00 phoenixville figgins previous such a party took over they were in charge for the 1st 10 years fan of foil were the party that was defeated in the civil war that came in after independence and they were set up in 1926 and really since devil are one in 1032 theyve been the dominant party you could say the party of government i dont like in the u. K. Not really a party of the right but a party of the center of the center left really until 2008 that pertained then the the financial crisis came and in 2011 they were spectacular any. Defenestrated if you like the real shock as time was that they werent able to build a many of the advances that theyve made in 2016 and i think there was a presumption certainly been. Fan of fallen from the good will that they were still the Major Players and if they got one up against the other that would indicate political success mary Lynn Mcdonnell and came through the middle and completely disrupted the whole sort of jew all public so the smear lubing done of the newly built should fail only leader for the last 2 years and really the fuss the little shouldnt feign who had a distance between her and the trouble shes a fust little shouldnt fail or omitted from the the south of the republic of the 1st leadership did any 6 so you know her predecessor was in the job a very long time or princess or absolutely how to get the authority of the ira behind him says gerry at this is gerry adams so she is and i sense a break from not although she has struggled at times to end the kit that she herself is free of the control of not necessarily active fire a man but certainly the senior command that wont were once and in control of the of the provisionals the t. V. Show that sleeve that id kill for the gale. In the Opposition Leader will fit the foil. For the actual say were not dealing with shouldnt feed on that i would suck of the try to maintain the dish in a position that leaves a stoutly spaf this wouldnt touch with a bargepole for the electorate the know im in a sense that was a fear of the shin fee and had a huge amount of clarity around 2. 00 issues one was hosing which is that was which is this time that was the senior policy issue there and they have a spokesman owner of bread we spend a lot of time on not subject as written a couple of books on it is fluent and clear no some of the promises that were made in terms of what was deliverable dont look particularly deliverable to me but it was ensuring with the publics idea of high urgent the hosing in the home homeless problem work and the other was the finance spokesman piers doherty who did. A lot of interesting work around. Insurance premiums and not really made the other 2 parties look very leaden footed but may hold martin is in particular any very fluent in policy but really it was a scholar gone and i think the the precision bombing of shin fin on those popular issues i think is the thing that the 2 parties didnt really expect are using that feel to the shouldnt finns credibility only social and Economic Issues rather than what you dish really associate with. And the need to demand for relocation of violence you say it was these issues and that credibility of the public that ability was clouded the absolutely although its important to note that those were not the 2 major things that they started with. There was talk about a border poll in the run up to the election but i think it wasnt just health and hosing there were other things but they clearly had segmented i mean the thing to understand about the political system is the p. R. System that weve got means the if youre going to take power you have to create a broad appeal so how harvesting and health of pay lives really right across the country but they also came a against the carbon tax they came out and promised that they would get rid of whats left of the local rates so there was a real pale i think to per people in the rural areas to try and get through or not so yeah absolutely the reunification issue really doesnt appear a little on an electoral basis although they were helped by at the very beginning by a very kind handed commemoration proposal put up by the government to remember the police force the British Police force before before in the palance and not. Just black in towns or live the kind of military type. Into Regimental Police force to. So controversial in the process of independence an island and who were basically old soldiers taken from the western front used to brutality done to them and brutality done back and on least on the irish population and not i think a walk a little kind of angry republicanism of the certain angry on the britishness a think definitely plays into sion fans so here we are 3 weeks after the no sign of a government so whats going to happen well were here at the end of february and the teacher has already said that he expects to go to washington on the 17th of march so he doesnt expect not to be the t. Shirt by then which gives you some indication of just how complicated this negotiation process for the election in the coming but leave without being the 3rd party know both in terms of votes had seats absolutely i mean it is theres an awful lot of negotiations going on at the moment. There are 2 days of negotiations going on between fan of foil and the green party shin fan of already and the green party have also also met for a whole day at how far i mean because the truth is the point of these negotiations is to see whether multiple parties can get together around a programme for government so the details that come around in such a. In such a situation have to be work done to the absolute bottom line so that the minor parties that go into it know that when they come back for election theyve been able to deliver certain concrete things because many of these left wing parties were delivered through the proportional system into the seats effectively by shouldnt fame transfer dont the and then those independents will who have the say the mothers to get something for the. Violent oh its getting very popular to be not part of any Political Party at all. I mean theres a family in kerry called the race they have to theyve elected 2 brothers and they are absolutely consummate negotiators for kerry not the rest of the country just for carry on the kerry people love coming to whats going to happen and what are the implications for the for the public of i with this is of us has been a political leftwich one of the implications for the future of politics in the pub well its hard to say because were so far were still so far away from an outcome this could really take until april its going to be a struggle to get there and if the to me either of the 2 main parties feels to get enough support from the independents the smaller parties the greens i think will go in with almost any party because they have a clear set of policies which has broad buy in from most of the Political Parties so then you can almost line them up and say well they will go in with almost anyone its really whether they get to the magical it is 8 point at which point then the coalition can command a majority in the. North to go to the middle thats always possible you did it in your own in your own career thats part of the s. N. P. Through scotland and you managed to maintain it for what 4 years. I think its more problematic in the door. Because its more fragmented i mean for instance there are 2 center left parties now theres the labor party in the social democrats youve also going to have lots of different agendas from the opposition and the only reason that we had a stable government over the last 4 years was the fianna fail supported phoenixville from the opposition benches there is a pos one possible outcome that martin may have the moral authority to turn around to leo varadkar and said well we did it for you its no your turn to bite the bullet and do for us. Theres a certain way politics to be does the so that you know varadkar to me there has already announced that he wants to head to the opposition benches hes hoping then that will force martin to do what martin absolutely doesnt want to do which is to go into government with and i dont think he will i think the alternative. Is probably another election if they fail to pull this off together but surely a couple circumstances another election would also suit shouldnt they have the moment theres not many scenarios and scenarios Going Forward that doesnt suit me and this is the fascinating thing about this not only did she take everyone else by surprise they took themselves by surprise they simply didnt choose enough candidates to be able to get to be the Majority Party only 5 candidates didnt get elected so next time around until run more and theyll get more seats so therefore lastly make this up mean in the north women shouldnt fade the leading past in terms of force preferences in the public a violent shouldnt feedback in government installment and belfast surely ulster unionists must be saying we will get off to face the reality that shouldnt feel as an all Ireland Party is becoming the dominant force what does that mean for nahla well funnily enough i think unionists are probably. Really more relaxed than most of the people in the republic if theres moral panic anywhere its in dublin its not in belfast and thats because i mean i think theres 2 reasons for that one weve had an inclusive executive hasnt worked very well mostly because its been the most disruptive influence on not but unionists have got become accustomed to that the other aspect of it is that this is a really massive reversal titian fans electoral fortunes north of the border just in the general election back in december where they lost the foreign seat by Something Like 17 and a half 1000 votes so i think unionists are theyve been through picture thin as they see it and i dont think they particularly see in as a direct threat at least in the short term very finally when you started the slow go to Political Blog some years ago did you really expect the possibility perhaps even the probability of seeing should fail in government in the public a file and. I certainly didnt but in 2002 they came out of the years election with 5 t. D. s the following election have for the last one but this is been building since 2011 and i think it has surprised people in the short term but in the long term this is always been the pitch power north and size and then what they hope to do is to project authority into the north begin to ship the discourse arrived a United Ireland they feel to facts was a good for you to say thank you. Whatever formation of government emerges from the doyle the politics of ireland have now changed and changed partly it is generally accepted that they should face surged or more to social net can all make a few subjects it or the board of pool but the thought that the party of reunification is within touching distance of becoming the only party both north and south has to find implications for the future of island and the future of the union will soon be presenting a series of interviews with leading politicians and commentators who are considering the feature of Northern Ireland some of their conclusions will surprise all our thought provoking next week well examine that they had a radical politics will fit into the history of scotland for now though from alex myself and all the show we hope to see you next week you. Television Propaganda Machine propaganda our propaganda tools we are getting information. That can change the world. And you tube videos that. Were structured today its a long nap. Question brushwood russia russia russia today is. Building a view that works against russia to that and i really have to join to see you then on our team. Who are so proud and. Are just getting the numbers. Why have you not shut down our t. V. On you tube its a Propaganda Machine mr walker. And the United States president ial candidates debate the future of the us and the world. Max kaiser and stacy her but dig into the burning questions of this election cycle one self big every week wealth tax student debt trade was corporate money universal basic income and more catch up with whats front running this sunday exclusively on r. T. The but. The to. The. Oh god. The. Above. Pay you to die germanys Constitutional Court repealed a 5 year old ban on assisted Suicide Services sparking fears of an exploitative trade in death. Also this hour the u. K. 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