Reports next to an international. Im max kaiser this is the kaiser report we are in rehearsal for cars report the musical. Got the congas we got the guitars i got the band i got the drummers write the song Stephen Sondheim i was going to have album out hes ill but 1 weve got some major folks involved in this project going to hit broadway oh man im excited stacy i want to talk about its a good story that relates to your congress because of course you need the congress for a you know war to beat the war drums of war exactly because what is the old saying on wall street dont fight the fed. I feel the 1st song of our musical comedy go there. To fit. Well many of our guests theyre called heterodox economists are heterodox financial analysts because they often fight the fed but my question were going to look at these headlines and my observations of some of these charts over the past decades or 2 is. What came 1st the chicken or the fed so is it the fed driving markets or is it panicked investors driving markets if a 4 quarter earnings recession couldnt undercut the equity market why would anyone think a spat with iran could do the job its all about the fed precisely the new york fed which injected a massive 77000000000. 00 into the system to start the week this is David Rosenberg who is one of the thing people who tried to fight the fed and the fed keeps winning with markets rising i explain this all in the last show there is only 2 major. Reliably predictable unprofitable mismanaged industries in America Hollywood and the defense Contractor Industry the one that takes half of our taxes and for them to keep getting more money from us the taxpayers are going to drop bombs everywhere they do it willy nilly without any thought about what theyre doing whatsoever they had a few it commercial airlines i dont care and then the fed prints tons of money and then they go blow it again and that money printing leads to the stock market going higher which makes everyone think theyre geniuses and that the god like and that see our strategy of bombing innocent people makes sense really just a crock and print more money and then the fed accommodates of course because we do so for National Security and the stock market hits a new all time on that everyone gets really smart and think oh my genius so much and so much money to go paul more people go kill more civilians the school submersed olders print more money and then the stock market goes i or thats the cycle that were in now its called genocide for profit if schools america. Well of course one thing the fed does and why you shouldnt fight the fed is that it is moral hazard they encourage so imagine when you were a little child and every time you did something wrong instead of getting sent to your bedroom and bouncing your bed across the room or anything like that you know you were given a Ice Cream Cone or you were given some sort. Increase in your allowance every time you did something wrong every time you accidently burned down the house or Something Like that you were rewarded for it rather than punished and thats what you have now is like any time theres bad news 1st of course you know gold spikes market selloff for literally a minute or 2 and then they soar quickly when they realize oh wait what am i doing im thinking like the olden days before Alan Greenspan before there was the fed fighting the investor speculator class so now they they would ever every time theres bad news is always the markets or the most right well dont forget eric holder tim geithner number 2008 they came out with the holder doctrine so about moral hazard they institutionalized moral hazard they said every time you banks commit fraud every time jamie diamond commit fraud we are going to cut those laws out of the books were going to eliminate laws against financial fraud whenever you commit fraud oh by the way of jamie diamond by citibank or travels corp violates classical oh well well just get rid of glass steagall to accommodate jamie dimon because thats the eric holder doctrine thats the jimmy geithner doctor and thats the ben bernanke you doctor and thats the doctor thats a jay powell doctrine is forget all rule of law for people with a lot of cash from the fed. In terms of fighting the fed and this war with the fed and this war with economics and Business Cycles for example. Where in this sort of benign totalitarianism is where they dont have to lock up short sellers for example remember during the financial crisis it always emerged that emerged in europe and the u. K. And the United States were going to ban short selling because the short sellers i. E. Those taking a bet against the markets are the ones causing this well they dont even have to do that anymore they dont have to threaten to arrest anybody or ban anything or throw people in prison they do it themselves because theyve been trained through years of abuse and that is nobody is short short sales and the s. P. D. R. S. And p. 500 e. T. F. Trust known by its ticker s. P. Y. As a percentage of shares outstanding fell to 1 point one percent last tuesday thats the lowest level since january 28th seen before the event known as volley get and sent stocks swooning thats the collapse in Short Interest so things are heating up we have these trade wars we have these hot wars in the middle east and of course people know thats when the fed is going to punch you hard if you dare do anything like sell off stocks or buy gold or anything that will d look jeopardize their their their one indicator that they care about thats their red line is the stock market price right now we got rid of the top tick rule which dramatically altered the whole short selling industry and the point is not that our stocks expensive are short sellers and are this is a stock trading at all time highs that is in consequential the point as weve been saying for ears. Is that everythings being taken private with all of the free money given to them from the fed and were entering neo feudalism. Feudalism. Feudalism best the period that were entering in act 2 of kaiser report the musical coming to broadway soon it will all be about neil feudalism how you start off with the middle class under eisenhower after world war 2 and. You build yourselves all kinds of homes out there in the suburbs and you got a job and one guy the host going to go make a living for the whole family and you go go to Ivy League School and youve made more than your fathers because its. Feudalism. Feudalism thanks youve destroyed america right oh im just going to quickly look at one chart and then move on to the next this this chart is just from 0 hedge and an article actually about Morgan Stanley where theyre saying dont fight the fed its not worth that Central Banks liquidity surge could push s. And p. 500 to 3500 Morgan Stanley had actually predicted the s. And p. 500 would go to 30 to 50 by the end of 2020 it went there in the 1st week or 2 of 2020 so that blew it away and theres a direct correlation and each time the markets were down like that little blurb there back in november of 21000 well its because the feds Balance Sheet shrank a little bit that week so those were people you know the fed controls what happens right now even Morgan Stanley is saying that who has been the beneficiary of the largest of the Federal Reserve i may add back in 2008 but again heres another sign that. People have been turned into dough sile sort of totalitarian state citizens like you see that in north korea they dont know how to question their leader because they dont know of anything else here they are trained to respond to the fed and what is happening the explosion and passive index funds so every if youre not going to fight the fed might not just join it just dump your money and to a passive index dont become a Value Investor dont be an active investor dont look for things like earnings and Growth Potential thats ridiculous right dont be trying to be like Warren Buffett any more even hes like sitting on over 125000000000 in cash because he still has this old notion of like looking for value and he doesnt find any so he sits there in cash and the meantime the ordinary investor is pouring into index funds index funds breakthrough 10 trillion dollars in assets mark amid active exodus relentless rise of passive investing has transformed the business of managing assets keep in mind in america Life Expectancy is down and for mortality is up and the spread between the richest and poorest is widening like youd expect in the middle ages during feudal times look in San Francisco in los angeles you can see whats happening right now particularly in San Francisco youve got a Huge Population the halmos people who are developing medieval diseases theyre getting typhus and other types of diseases diseases and clothing dupatta playing which i havent seen in hundreds of years so i would predict in the next year or so tim cook over there at apple and others will start erecting these huge walls and outside of the wall will be a huge moat and thatll be the erect castles theyll be genuine castles in San Francisco los angeles in in new york surrounded by moats filled alligators and sharpshooters and guns and all the this and Franchise Service out there that got messed over by the fed because they engineer this deal for. Hello islam will be out in the no mans land fighting for rats food cooking rats up and possums trying to survive i say go along alligators now get it was cheap because theres going to be huge demand for it but again you know this this cycle of like what came 1st the chicken or the fed and theyre in a. Mutually assured destruction at this point so people are pouring money into these passive index funds are just passive speculators and not investors because they dont even know what theyre investing in theyre just like throwing money at an index theyre not like you know Warren Buffett so there is no discipline in the markets them everybody is just following the fed theyre expecting the fed to keep things going up their. Companies like Something Like 40 percent of the companies in the s. And p. 500 are essentially zombies i saw a data point out this past week where 40 only 43 percent only 43 percent of companies in the s. And p. 500. 00 even reported any r. And d. Costs at all so theyre not Even Research and develop and theres no investment in the future theres no cap ex this is tolls zombie and just. You know fighting alongside the fed but at the end of the day ultimately one point you know we might realize its like you know that trojan horse this entire economy is a trojan horse in order to get an essential a a command and control system which will disintegrate rapidly oh yeah you know passive investing is like the last choppers leaving saigon right you know the u. S. Lost the war in vietnam and those choppers in saigon leaving and people clinging to the rails like who would assume musubi the camera loses all thought of the do or theyre going to kill me. Right so investing in passive in fast passive funds are like the hyperinflation thats happening in Health Care Education and every aspect of the economy that is not imported from slave wages in china as ricky gervaiss pointed out is going up 102030 percent a year its completely obliterating the middle class and theyre saying i want to be going to passive investing fund so that i dont go build up by the camera rouge take me in the shop wrote a song i go on right ive seen this in the seventys i lived during the seventys. Boomer. Boomer and the millennial and the jenna x. Sorry but nothing left for you might want to add i think you mean the viet cong rather than keep. Close enough going you know and then or in cambodia the cameras right then fields right in right next door to same you know a group of angry disenfranchised yeah kissinger financer kissinger obliterated sort of situation but finally i want to quickly look at this chart here global trade growth is inversely related to the overall strength of the dollar which is a remarkable again there are no cycles theres only the fed dont fight the fed because this is what the fed does you trade goes up when the dollar is down trade goes down when the dollar is up its that simple and the fed and our policies control a lot of right the dollar is a proxy for global stupidity how why china. Russia Europe Germany france argentina why they own dollars and buy dollars its a proxy for stability. I bet going. And goal. Were going to take a break when we come back much more coming your way. On a spaceflight you literally leave all your problems behind you fly high and above everyone and everything and then you see any and all borderlines on earth disappear you see that up planet is not as were taught in schools with Different Countries marked in different colors separate from one another you see that all planet earth is just another it will be a Big International space station on a mission in the vastness of space just like the i assess. This is a story about what happens auster a stray bullet kills a young girl in the streets. What happens to her family and daughters in florida the mother daughter is buried in a cemetery meaning messes with your head what happens to the community the public was screaming for a scapegoat the police need is a scapegoat so why not choose a 19 year old black kid with a criminal record who better to pin this on than him and what happens in court be. Shocked shocked as far society. We dont know this is from. The end of this trial unfortunately you. Will still not know who killed just. Welcome back to report im max keyser time now to go to korea campi of the 2 f. Models report dot com check out the website for some 2020 action predictions for a catholic cetera its actually craig welcome back max its always a pleasure happy new year lets talk gold the drum beat so of war with iran because golda skyrocket above 1600. 00 briefly before peace was declared sending gold back around 1550. 00 how important technically is this 1550. 00 price kreg its a very important level for the after one school peaked out in 2000 lebanon came down and then went sideways for about a year and a half 1550. 00 on a weekly basis was very important support for about 19 months and it was 1550 that was wiped out on friday april 12th 2013 and monday april 15th 2013 down 200 bucks wipe that level out weve been below it ever since whats most 7 years now this is the 2nd week in a row weve closed above that level technically thats important but i want to stress though because there was a lot of talk here once the war stuff kind of simmer down the gold had only been going up as like a safe haven thats not true at all gold was up 3 percent from december 20th to january the 2nd before the stolen money assassination rate attack whatever so it was a 8. 00 and a half percent from december night through january 22nd so metals were moving for good reason they were looking ahead all the Central Bank Activity and Everything Else thats coming up this year it wasnt just a reaction to see thats important people remember from reading that billionaires and multimillionaires are hoarding gold in record amounts or building safe bunkers in their basements in the hamptons and theyre filling it with gold bricks this is happening. All over the world people are sensing that the safehaven play of gold is upon us and that the days of the dollar could be coming to a close what about the fundamentals of gold krag what about something other than just technicals driving the price higher what do you say on the supply demand the more the fundamental side thats the dichotomy max that seems to get wider every year you mention High Net Worth individuals goldman had a big report about that back in december all the demand for gold getting taken off grid out of the banks hands let me lay this 112018 the global Central Banks bought 651 metric tons of gold it was a most since 1989 the year after the london globe will fail and then in 2019 it appears they topped that 670. 00 metric tons thats physical metal in taken out of the banks hands well the same time the way the stuff is priced through futures trading the open interest on the comix went up by over 300000 contracts which means the banks created about a 1000 metric tons of paper goal so there is this widening gap between actual physical demand and then this paper supply if that can stretch the system far enough things could really get interesting but for now. You know an interesting to say opportunity. You understand how that works to maybe make some interesting forecast and prepare for you know kind of end game that maybe those elites are talking about against other major currencies gold already making new all time highs just about every other currency out there in the world gold making new all time highs but not against the dollar and the fall money you know incident of of recent time has proven that the u. S. Is the sole had germany in the world that it can do pretty much anything it wants no other country has much in terms of recourse and as long as the empire is intact then the empire can act unilaterally blow people out of the sky what not without any repercussions i dont see it and in response the rest of the world buys a dollars you know that its like that old saying the beatings will continue until morale improves well now the america says to the world our bombings will continue until you stop buying the dollar and they dont get the message they keep buying dollars so i think on the macro scale i dont see a big change there the rest the world cowers at the foot of america and that will keep the price of gold from hitting new all time highs against the dollar any time soon i think this year max or we already had the best gains since 2010 encounter your 2001000 which you know every time we we met and talked in 2001000 thats what we forecast we thought that to be a good year i did you know i wouldnt expect gold to skyrocket this year absent you know some major crisis but if we keep moving higher it at once or both 1551650. 00 becomes a dollar target maybe even 750 it is important otoh if you did that gold has made a new all time highs in almost every other major currency so in a sense you kind of feel like the dollar is eventually going to get there too but if google keeps turning higher and silver keeps trending higher i think it opens up the door to some money making some feel good making possibilities as your. Actually the oddest of all d places thats mining shares which is just i mean a terrible place to have your money for the last 6 or 7 years you want to trade make some cash mining shares might be the place to be because if the Global Asset Managers you know the institutions a hedge funds even the Central Banks like the Swiss National bank they start looking at the sector seeing the gains in the metals seeing the shares in their indices start to break out maybe a lot of money flowing through a very small hospital into a limited amount of Investment Opportunities and so i theres probably a better opportunity make gains in 2020 and actually in the mining shares and there is in the axis of all the problem with gold mining is that it doesnt scale very well when you compare to what you can get in alphabet the Parent Company google or apple or tesla even or facebook you know they just add a couple of servers and theres another 5000000. 00 customers and the cost of scaling is miniscule and theyre welded into the u. S. Pentagon as is the case with amazon they have a guaranteed contract pipe flow due to all the work they do for the pentagon and those the companies are getting bigger and bigger you know becoming trillion Dollar Companies to do a goldmine youve got to hire workers youve gotta buy huge excavating machines the got to dig you got to refine youve got a whole lot of mercury and acid in there to get it out you know the margins in gold mining are terrible what it compared to the weightless Digital Economy that were in now but i mean i understand that they are a leveraged play on gold but the money flow is going to people like elon musk you know elon musk even though the company is that 80000000000. 00 or so twice is bigger than the 2 other Biggest Car Companies in america combined its not its not that big when it apparent apple right apples 1. 3 trillion. Dollars and elon musks company is only worth reich 80 or 90000000000 so hes got a long way to go to catch up to apple and why not he is reinventing the globe just like steve jobs dead well thats all true max no doubt about it but i i think theres opportunity in those shares though as people diversify i mean the global Asset Allocation of the sector the precious metal sector is less than one percent i mean if it goes to 2 percent which is still under the historical norm thats a doubling of the amount of cash and so you look at ata what it was and then an asset manager look like something look at Something Like nuance big big minor their earnings are growing 34. 00 times versus year over year and they pay a 2. 4 percent dividend and that beats the heck out of the 10 year treasury so i you know im not you know if the market keeps going up the central bank keeps like in this cash i mean what that the fed increase or Balance Sheet all the way back up over 4 trillion in the last quarter means that cash going to float around the planet im sure apple and tesla and the rest will keep going up but i think offer diversification sake we could see a rush of cash into the Mining Sector and if the g. E. Actually goes from 30 to 50 thats pretty good move you know so anyway more of the story is i think the fed keeps kryten cash the e. C. B. Keep printing cash theyre monetizing the debt direct around almost directly through one extra step there directly monetizing the debt theres no other way theyre going to have money cash to fund the government deficits and all the Everything Else that goes with it so i think that continues this year i think the metals continue trending higher and anybody waiting for like some major debt to buy is going to be just right you mentioned g. D. X. There just to point out that t. D. X. Is an Exchange Traded fund it covers a group of mining stocks t. D. X. J. Is a similar except it has more of the junior mining stocks and then theres one with the Ticker Symbol ass i al was covers the. Over Mining Sector so these are all ways for people to diversify into the Mining Sector instead of trying to pick individual winners in the Mining Sector you might have the grapes and greatest. Play on gold and silver ever but if youre in the wrong company and that company runs into trouble you have missed the bull market so the the best way to do it is to play the play in the e. T. F. Market i would agree with you on on that and roughly one percent of the globes assets theres about 100. 00 trillion dollars of investable assets around the world in Family Offices and High Net Worth individuals and for a one k. Plans and Charles Schwab accounts about one percent of that money is in gold believe it last i checked is that currently the situation and all we have to see is that to move to 2. 00 or 3 percent crag and gold would very quickly get to 2500. 00 an ounce and u. S. Dollars greg thats just it max i mean is it you any good you know oranges you know you name it if you get a vast amount of increasing amount of money chasing a finite amount of goods the price goes up i mean thats econ 1. 00 of the one so i just you know again yes a trillion dollars you go from one percent to 2 percent thats a trillion dollars coming into the sector in half of that 500000000000. 00 would basically have the entire sector or the whole g x o g x. L d i mean all that stuff so thats what i expect i think we get a point this year once it becomes clear that the shares are breaking out that theyre just a big rush of cash into the sector people just looking for precious metal in all their forms as a hedge as whatever they get makes for a big year so i dont i just i think people need to recognize what happened last week understand that the metals are already moving for a whole different set of circumstances before the geopolitical stuff kind of perked up the geopolitical stuff going to underpin the market all year now and i think this makes for a. Going to environment for the brush just to reiterate that point the market capitalization of facebook is roughly 500000000000 so youre saying for the market capitalization of facebook one company you could own the entire Mining Sector the entire the entire sector exactly right answer i mean crying out loud that you scream Investment Opportunity and so look we are you know were all waiting for the world and but gosh this could be a really good year for people makes it sounds like a novice cust all song anyway we got to go craig hamby thanks for being on the kaiser report my pleasure max well thats going to do it for this episode of the cast reporter with me max kaiser and stacey harbor like to thank our guest krag hamp the of the t. F. Metals report dot com if you want to catch us on twitter its kaiser report its all next time by oh oh. Oh. Please. Lists. Please. Playing. Very well welcome to you youre watching us in such a. Place. Here from a busted news source people