Transcripts For RT Boom Bust 20240714

Monday cutting the companys expected revenue by nearly 20000000000. 00 saying quote we estimate will reduce production by 30000000000 dollars this year and the next our revenues will be around 100000000000. 00 while way had previously planned for revenue of 120000000000. 00 in 2019 up from 104200000000. 00 in 28. 00. And signs of weakness in the jet in chinese economy that many or it should be doing in part to the lingering trade fight with the United States seem to be driving the slip and Oil Prices Oil prices fell by about one percent on monday on reports of the growth rate of chinas industrial output falling to a 17 year low growing just 5 percent year over year in may concerns about chinese growth appeared to have exerted enough downward pressure on prices to roughly cancel out the upward push late last week in the wake of the apparent attack on 2 oil tankers in the gulf of oman west texas intermediate futures rose by about one percent on friday while brant futures were up by about 4. 4. On. And on here now to break help us break down all the goings on in the Global Markets an oil trade and perhaps some surprising topics is name market analyst at think markets name 1st 1st on oil prices what is your take on the slide in prices thats happening despite the tensions in the gulf largely due to the apparent slowdown in Chinese Industrial output which then is in turn largely due to the trade war with the u. S. Is this the trend for their foreseeable future. Unfortunately i think that is the trend for the foreseeable future and as you have correctly pointed out the reason for that is because of the trade war the u. S. Not softening its stance and then just trying to bully china into. Into a position where they want them to be and i think this has been very much prominent in terms of the economic numbers all over in the u. S. And also in china for instance today we have the Industrial Production numbers out of china one of the weakest numbers in several different years the number came in at 5 percent if the chinese economy which is the 2nd biggest economy in the world isnt really going to power and theres really going to show that there is a huge demand for oil that obvious tentatively the price of oil isnt going to perform that well so you see this you see this trend settling in for a while. I think for the for the time being until. Trade war issues are being resolved. The u. S. Doesnt stop being its own oil supply i really do not see a major reason for oil prices to move ok and on those tensions around the persian gulf after the apparent attacks on a norwegian and japanese tanker which the u. S. Rushed to blame on iran only to then be contradicted by. The owner of the japanese tanker and the japanese government a u. S. Ally reacting with skepticism at best now iran is saying that the European Partners of the 2050 Nuclear Agreement have failed to protect their ron against secondary u. S. Sanctions after the u. S. Pulled out of the agreement iran is setting specific are also articles of the agreement to say they will allow their stockpile of enriched uranium to rise above the limits set in the agreement within 10 days they say unless and until the european parties to the agreement come up with some remedies for the us withdrawal and sanctions what effect will this have on oil prices is that enough to move them back up. Unfortunately this is not a come the way you wanted to see the iran moving to the place where you want to see the one moving to but because of the external forces and the pressure and the accusations and their everything which comes with it i think iran hans been pushed into this situation so this means heightened geopolitical tensions but we do not see that in terms of price because nothing is being translated into price the price is still very much to in a downward trend remember brant. To best perform one of the 2 best performing travesties for this year both of them when not 3 months i mean for a few months theyve been nearly 45 percent year to date performance and now that performance is sitting at 10 percent so you can clearly see that the both derivatives are very much in a correction territory now with the heightened geopolitical tensions over in the middle east for the time being i think the concerns are more about the demand than the supply because traders do thing that we have more than and it creates bly on the market and with the u. S. Shale Oil Production are moving only one way which is to the upside i think the supply concerns despite these hearts and geopolitical tensions. Not superseding the demand element. And u. S. Secretary of commerce secretary what were ross over the weekend tamp down expectations for u. S. China trade deal that could be struck when u. S. President donald trump and chinese president xi jinping at the g. 20 summit later in japan this month mr ross said the most he expects is an agreement to resume talks how are markets reacting to that statement and what is the long term prognosis as the fight lingers on. You know market is in a very funny situation right now because even if you just look at the 2 had lines out of a c. And b. C. You see the market closing report which is almost being published right now on the c. And b. C c the markets are higher because of the optimism around the fed so this particular week is more about the fed and the fed meeting and what the stance that they will take which is very much dependent on what you have just discussed about the trade war because remember the fed response to the economic numbers and that any weakness in the comic numbers really puts friends back in the fresh eyes and then they have to do something they have to play with a Monetary Policy in order to boost that if that doesnt happen then obviously the market is going to be in very much jeopardy but right now market is expecting that yes the fed is going to change a stance the fed would perhaps be moving to something what we are all expecting is called the Interest Rate cuts and if you look at safe haven assets such as gold you know over there the reports are that ok that the fed is going to fed isnt going to be to my starvation hence that were seeing weakness in the gold price because the dollar is moving higher so that we the situation is that the equity market the traders in that space they are expecting the feds to keep this stance very much darvish but when we look at the dollar index speculators are still continuing to push the dollar index higher. Because they do not believe that this is sufficient in the economic numbers over in the u. S. Which can really push the feds to cut the Interest Rate by 2 times or 3 times interesting he does it all folks name muslim chief market analyst at think markets thanks as always for your insight. Thank you. Big moves for bitcoin over the weekend is the price of the cryptocurrency top 1000. 00 on sunday continuing a strong year after the coin saw lows around 3000. 00 in january while traditional Asset Classes like stocks bonds gold and oil have had a positive year so far that coin has proved more lucrative for an masters this year with years gains today over 150 percent analysts believe there are many reasons for the recent positive growth in bitcoin this year including and most are saying more introduced to traditional support for crypto currencies has become a factor with more and more ways to use the currencies the ongoing trade war with china has also played a role as investors are concerned about a shift and the dollar or you won and facebook is set to unveil more details about their planned version of a crypto currency this week with an expected launch in 2020 as always boom bust will keep a close eye on our niche in the crypto spaces the market keeps getting more interesting. Now for a quick break but hang here because when we return big pharma is in the headlines again as major drug buys or has carried out yet another takeover molly barrows contribute to americas lawyer is standing by to dig into the details of the drug makers deal and as we go to break here are the numbers at the close. Seemed wrong. Rowles. To me to be yet to shape out these days to come to advocate and engage with equals betrayal. When so many find themselves worlds apart. Choose to look for common ground. We came here where you were before you came. In many us States Capital punishment is still practiced convicted prisoners can spend years waiting for execution but most of the time the victims families they are very much in favor the Death Penalty there are some people because of what they did they have given up the right to live among us somebody even proven innocent to years on death row and how many more exonerations is it going to take before we as a society realize this is not working and we actually do something about. More of my guide to financial survival this is. A device used by professional scallywags to earn money. Thats right these hedge funds are simply not accountable and will just. Totally destabilize that local economy you need to protect yourself and get in for. Your. You know world of big. And conspiracy its time to wake up to dig deeper to hit the stories that made stream media refuses to tell more than ever we need to be smarter we need to stop slamming the door. And shouting past each other its time for Critical Thinking its time to fight for the middle for the truth the time is now were watching closely watching the hawks. Welcome back in the Global Finance sector one big name is preparing to divest itself of its bad assets by unloading them in a new bank while another finance heavy isnt barking on an internal reorganization the Financial Times of london has revealed the troubled Deutsche Bank is preparing what they characterized as a deep overhaul that includes shifting the german bank away from investment lending as well as spinning off troubled assets mostly derivatives into a socalled bad bank that could sell them off meanwhile u. S. Financial advice if and Goldman Sachs is bundling existing units into a new division goldman reportedly will integrate 4 existing groups focused on different aspects of private and. Testament into one new division the temple of the new division will be the current Merchant Banking unit which holds 100000000000. 00 in assets. And from one banks boom to another banks bust Swiss Investment bank u. B. S. Has been barred from a bond deal with the large state own China Railway Construction Corporation over an alleged insult to china from a u. B. S. Banker the storm began when the banks chief economist said in reference to the swine flu swine fever tearing through china quote Chinese Consumer prices rose this was mainly due to 6. 6 pigs does this matter it matters if you are a chinese pig it matters if you like eating pork inchoate pork in china it does not really matter to the rest of the world this statement was not received well by many in china most visibly on social media and the backlash led to the bankers placement on leave you with u. B. S. Has a long history in the peoples republic for setting up shop in Mainland China in 1909 but those ties could grow more strain Going Forward over this comment citi group h. S. B. C. And i c b c were all chosen over u. B. S. To conduct the bond sale. And speaking of the swine fever crisis more negative news continues to emerge as the outbreak continues mostly unabated analysts and economists are now predicting that in addition to instability in the chinese pork markets and economy the inflation could very well spill into over into emerging markets thats according to James Swanston of Capital Economics but what else could this mean Going Forward for not just china but the globe altogether for that answer we turn now as we do to fred kaufman the author of bet the farm how food stop being food fred youve been such a great guide for us in this crisis get us up to date tell us whats the latest on the swine fever epidemic. Well you hit the nail on the head with paul donovan hes the chief economist over at u. B. S. Who just was given a leave of absence this morning for saying the words chinese pig what this tells us in the vernacular is china is freaking out about whats going on and they are in total shutdown mode see no evil speak no evil hear no evil there is nothing here to see when in fact there are more than 100000000 swine that have been killed and we are looking at a Global Crisis in terms of pigs we have never seen the likes of before and its going to affect the agricultural markets through and through the world and its not going away any time soon so it sounds like maybe were in the messenger shooting stage of the crisis the Chinese Agriculture ministry made a head turning prediction that pork prices could increase by 70 percent by the 2nd half of this year with the c. P. I. Consumer price index rising as much as 3 percent does that sound about right or are they perhaps still underestimating the potential impact of this outbreak. You know look its very hard to really understand Consumer Price index as an aggregate for everybody in china that 3 percent might be an across the board figure but in fact what were looking at in the landscape of chinese production are quite literally hundreds im sorry hundreds of millions of small holder farmers people who are raising either 2 to 50 to maybe a couple of 100 swine who are going to be completely obliterated driven out of the business and if youre looking at their stories person to person somebody is losing 100000 bucks and others losing 250000 dollars there are literate and they are gone and so its one thing for the price of pork to go up 70 percent another thing for the Consumer Price index to go up 3 percent but in fact when these people are out of business and theyre going to the cities you are looking. A major transformation thats why china is freaking out thats why china is saying. Dont look here and nothing going on because theres a lot going on theres going to be even more migration from the Rural Centers to the urban centers more pressure on social structure its going to be a big problem and getting into the domino effects of this crisis we noted these comments in the introduction from at least one a reputable analysts of this crisis could one have a Significant Impact on inflation south across Southeast Asia and even in Eastern Europe and to it could have a follow on impact on soybeans from all the cold pigs who are no longer eating that soyuz feed and perhaps in the long term even worse for soya Consumer Preferences shift away from pork whats the so whats the outlook for soya in the long term as a result of this. Well what were seeing in the story market is going to be all of these new extra analogies in other words there is at this present moment with the culling of of the of the of the livestock there is going to be less demand whats then going to happen is that planters are going to start putting other crops on the ground thats going to start to get another boom bust cycle because china has an insatiable appetite for pork they are the largest producer of pork in the world they consume more than 4c4xw4c4xw pigs a year thats not going to go away any time soon soon so were going to see is a lot of volatility a lot of increased extra maladies if you have a taste for it there is money to be made buckle your belt folks as you mentioned just again many of these china chinese pork farmers are small scale and independent could the landmark market landscape be significantly shifted by a wipeout of those small producers. Thats what were looking at were looking at a complete transformation were looking at the beginning of vertical integration that weve never seen before in the Chinese Market china has really been going full scale into port production since 1988 when premier dang made that a priority and everybody in china started producing pork you know the pig was 1st domesticated in china 10000 years ago it has a big taste for this and were going to see a transformation like never before were going to see the introduction of american style confined animal Unit Production there is no way the small holder is going to be able to compensate for whats happened in terms of the bio Security Issues just theyre not going be able to recover and on the other side of this then what opportunities does this crisis create for outside investors to move into the Chinese Market and the answer is tremendous opportunity the russians are going in there thailand is going into argentina and brazil look theres a 62 percent tariff on american pork going into china that demands going to only increase they need their pork. Its not going away really. The issue is going to be the price of pork in china or not this year because they are the only country in the world with a frozen pork reserve but one year down the line 2 years down the line the transformation were going to see and speaking of the timeline here based on past outbreaks how long could it be before one this crisis sort of tops out into how long before it can be eliminated is a concern or is this going to be a permanent risk factor moving forward listen dont hold your breath if we look at other countries that have that have been suffering from this outbreak in the swine flu it takes the industry about 5 years to recover about 5 years in china is going to recover and never go back to what it was before so theres going to take a while its going to shift global protein supply and demand were looking at a serious transformation it would be very interesting if youre in the ag in agriculture those now is an interesting time i guess as the old chinese curse right have an interesting life very Interesting Times indeed it is systemic transformation perhaps pushed by and disease outbreak fred kaufman author of bet the farm thanks for your time. Thanks a lot. And pharmaceutical giant pfizer is spending 11000000000. 00 to buy a re bio pharma a drug developer that focuses mainly on medicines to treat cancer the move allows pfizer to diversify its competition grows for its more popular drugs molly barrows contributor with the word joan just now with more molly wood does this what despiser have to gain from this proposed acquisition. Quite a bit daniel if you listen to pfizers executives according to them this is a quote potentially industry leading opportunity they say to be a cancer drug portfolio and give the drug giant access to a raise approved drugs for skin cancer and their other experimental drugs and the company is willing to pay big for this opportunity pfizer is paying 28. 00 a share for a that represents a 62 percent premium over res Closing Price last week this announcement of the proposed purchase letter a shares to soar 60 percent in premarket trading on the New York Stock Exchange pfizer stock stayed about the same that pfizer executives say this move overall will strengthen their bio pharmaceutical business and dance their long term growth and will help the company dominate the market for drugs for Colorectal Cancer along with medicine for breast and prostate cancers where pfizer already has some expertise so in all this is a strategic move meant to make pfizer more competitive overall especially as some of their big sellers like the drug lyrica lose patent protection and will face more competition so this is their attempt to diversify and forth that competition. Very good no the big premium that was pfizer was willing to pay for this company on top of the price of 11000000000. 00 so i think the so was a whats whats so special about sort of gotten into a little bit. Totals about a ray what justifies the premium theyre paying the price theyre paying. Right so raise the sensuous start up company and its most recent fiscal year shows they had a 174000000. 00 in revenue that is nothing thats small potatoes compared to ray i mean that compared to 5 years a giant was 53 over 53 and a half 1000000000 in revenue last year making it the 2nd largest u. S. Pharmaceutical Company Behind johnson and johnson so are a sells a number though of commercially available drugs that target skin cancers also Colorectal Cancer therapy and several other drugs there and its pipeline so its had some recent successes with drugs that are moving quickly into the market that are already in the market so pfizer pointed out and its announcement fact that Colorectal Cancer is the 3rd most common type of cancer in the u. S. So theres a real push here to get involved in cancer drug business and just last year the u. S. Food and Drug Administration approved arrays oral Combination Treatment for melanoma patients thats the deadliest form of skin cancer so some analysts say this is a sign that were going to see more deals like this as other giants in the drug industry look to diversify other oncology takeovers in the pharmaceutical world for example so far this year alone including eli lilly and company paying 8000000000. 00 in cash for cancer drugs specialists lock so in college and Bristol Myers Squibb Company agreed to buy celgene corp and a deal that values that group at 74000000000 so we could see a trend here daniel and you mentioned sort of a timeline here that pfizer has some patents expire and they want to get these exposed to these other profitable pounds before the pipeline dries up so with all the balls and youre here whats the right time line when and how is this deal actually going to be structured in time. Well they want to do it quickly they hope to have it done by the 2nd half of this year is expected to add to their earnings beginning 2022 and world will reduce adjusted earnings per share by about between 4. And 5 cents this year and in 2020 is according to pfizer south Company Plans to do this deal with that in cash reserves danielle so well see where they go later on this year but so far it seems like this is their move to combine their Health Care Business with other successful Drug Companies yet another merger major merger in biotech molly barrows always keeping us up to date of americas lawyer thanks for your insight. And finally Dominos Pizza has entered a deal to bring pizza to your door without the delivery person the pizza chain announced monday a partnership with robotics delivery start up new row to test a livery of their pizza by a small self driving robot the Pilot Program will begin sometime in the 4th quarter of 21000. 00 delivering pies from a store located in Houston Texas neuro would secure a 1000000000. 00 investment from japans softbank earlier this year specializes in small Autonomous Vehicles designed for delivering goods to a consumers door they have also been working with the United States is largest grocery Chain Store Chain kroger to deliver goods by not antonymous vehicles in houston their initial hopes are to work with local businesses to deliver goods that can fit within the small the have goals and thats it for this time you can catch boom bust on direct t. V. Channel 321. 00 dish Network Channel 28 or streaming 247 on pluto t. V. The. Channel 132 or as always hit us up at youtube dot com slash 2 must start to see you next. Join me every 1st day on the alex simon chill and ill be speaking to guest of the world of politics sports business im showbusiness ill see of n. O y e a paradise with some around turned into a round the experimentation field but agricultural chemicals we know that these chemicals have consequences they are major irritants theres no question otherwise why would that the Chemical Company workers themselves be geared up that suited up locals attempt to combat the on regulated experiments but often in day you have many of these people where one foot into the biotech pharma and the other foot in the government regulatory bodies this kind of collusion is reprehensible while the battle goes on the chemicals continue to poison hawaii and its people so one has to ask the question whether there is a form of Environmental Research going on in hawaii whether these Companies Feel they can get away with this because the people have less political power. Starting really in the 1980s under reagan and that are in deregulation you had the fed takeover and their sole purpose at that point was to try to squeeze workers completely out of the Global Economy so wages never went up in real terms sense that stock markets keep going up and the reason to justify this is that the fed will say we need to try to take care of deflation even though that they are causing to placement in an environment where their money printing is increasing the debt. We had one man 3540 years old. In the water. Some 30 fisherman. In this never. Understood. That hes going to want to do something and i. Believe that this is one of the therapy you is. Tom. And its really harsh things that happen in life. I thought i. Thought. I. Knew a sense additional 1000. 00 troops in the middle east to be growing tensions with iran is a recent report claims the American Military is more environmentally polluting than whole countries. The canadian region says people in the Public Sector calm religious symbols the work rights activists say the new mobo violates religious and personal freedom. And a new social media platform set up by controversial right wing figure peterson ignites debate he says