For the First Time Since the financial crisis well its a curious timing on that you know the postcrisis the dow got down to nine thousand now its flirting with twenty six thousand and these will any of us are piling in now at this level but they hated it at nine thousand thats the way markets are there despise the lows when people should be buying in their loved at the top still and people should be cautious so this is a classic kind of contrarian indicator that if youve got the an educated now piling in at all time highs i think the professionals will start to ease out for the exits before the mad rush well this is a dangerous sign that this next tweet because of course many of these millennial hell be buying by an Online Discount brokerage and heres one of them a tweet about one of them t. D. Ameritrade c. E. O. Says he has never seen client cash flow. This low clients highly active in markets again another contrarian indicator so when you have low cash levels in accounts of people are fully committed thats typically a market top when you have great bullishness thats generally on the market top when the pull call ratio is extended level more bullish bets than negative bets thats generally a market top so all these contrarian indicators are telling us that the market is nosebleed territory and thats when most people you know pile in because the euphoria generates irrational choices yeah well i know that even ray dally oh i guess one of the richest hedge funders in america he was over in davos saying that anybody sitting on the sidelines is basically an imbecile theyre going to miss out because markets are going to continue to soar this year certainly with all the tax cuts so thats what he thinks maybe maybe for a year though these money is a week ok im sure the democrats are hoping that hes not ok because they need a market crash if this is the sort of you know its the economy stupid well let me point something out ray valeo can make a Statement Like that and be long in the market and also heads so he could put ten billion dollars in the stock market and for two or three percent of the vestment he can be hedged with puts and futures contracts limiting his last two or three percent if there is a crash the people who are listening to him will go along the market or on the head of the t. T. Ameritrade in the discount brokers theyll pile in the money as a pile and but they wont be hedged so if there is a ten twenty or thirty percent correction or a crash theyll feel it all laurie dahlia will feel the two percent and theyll be like oh i guess i was wrong but on. The last two percent and by the way heres my next idea and then so finally because this kind of ties in with this young kid millennial being from new. Work and whats how trump even came into office in the first place and looking forward to twenty eighteen is bronco. Tweeted. You know hes a professor at City University of new york and hes written a book about inequality so he said of the dallas crowd he says as bronco milan says of davus attendees they are lowes to pay a living wage but they will fund a film on a orchestra they will ban unions but they will organize a workshop on transparency and government you know just in terms of whether or not the sort of filler monic funding crowd of the m. S. M. B. C. Watching elite of new york some of the people that we can think of whether or not that theyll have some economic answers that will trump the rising stock market are now feeling some sort of wealth effect that trump is making them feel smart because the markets are going up because theyre invested oh speaking of a lot after the break well talk to one of the richest of them out there in the crypto space dont go away stay right there. Across europe municipalities are taking their water supply back from private companies to. A loan even some company elsewhere they invited private companies to take over the utilities many by the telescope. Was she goes to go. For you bill brought up locals are ready to stand up for the basic human rights of access to water its about water but its also over much more than water its about to hurt and to redistribute. And dare date downwards do you want. Welcome back to the kaiser part im extras are time now to turn to Jeremy Gardner of auger and many other crypto related projects a long term friend Jeremy Carter great to have you on finally thanks for having me man all right this is awesome now tell us what order so auger was one of the very person applications ever built on top of the theory of blockade is it decentralized application i. E. It is a decentralized Prediction Market platform effectively and unstoppable online betting platform that predicts the future were right now i have some experience in the Prediction Market or else going back a number of years i studied your experience ok the hollywood saga same so jeremy how does this say use the watch chain in a production market shorts so it is entirely written on top of a layer of smart contracts so there is not a single component of the augur platform that essential isin any way including though the event resolution process which is really the most novel innovation of augur is that instead of relying on a single central. Entity to resolve say whether donald trump was elected president or not thousands of people report on the outcome of advance from around the world using a token that we issued out one of the very first i. C. s offenders the very First Utility token ever created because its a token that is not used judd secure a block but to make application work instead so its a bit of crowdsourcing using the tele talk and to get into some things process is like verifying a resolution as you say so its efficient and what about the the experience weve seen in the past is a Prediction Markets like in trade with in ireland is that you know that a lot of people dont like at Prediction Markets around because they like to be able to control the news cycle they like to be. Specially in america now with so much going on in the political space we like to control things in the same Prediction Markets tend to give a more and propagandized look at things and it can get it you know prettier tracting some attention maybe that you dont want to attract if you thought about that whats your thought i mean that that is why weve created a de centralized british market and there is there are news servers alike in trades you cant be shut down once to dabble occasion goes live its pandoras box it is open forever there are the i mean there are thousands of nodes all around the world validating the transaction and posting the platform it is totally on some sort of ball but we have gone and we have reached out to there are appropriate regulatory authorities be fixed and play into what the platform is we explain that its totally open source recycling that the auger does not create any of the markets or to forecast foundation which is behind auger its anybody that uses a palm from the goes a group of kids us markets and to be clear im not speaking on behalf on augur of all that im no longer associated just a cofounder and ambassador to the top four ok so the cherry gartner story actually gets kind of interesting here so i read about you the New York Times and theres a story out there the talk about the crypto pro. And they bill has how i characterize it. And theyve carried this so they have the in the what has it got tripped over castle in which is my house and severances your house its your house in San Francisco and there are twenty somethings i know of the twenty something i am about to turn twenty six a month and you guys were early into the trip to space yanks were all there was pretty much fun and if youre sitting on you know lets lets be honest a bucket loads of of of wampum you know and so the New York Times chose to take the angle that. You know why are we giving these young guys so much frickin money and is this a good thing and i must say that the characterization you know painted you you know i would say in a not terribly flattering way. Intellectually vapid right and so your experience you know i talked a little bit about this was that the Mainstream Media was a different experience and you expect there yeah and you know i always hated the term means she media just sounded like this horrible of justification of popular news but at the end of the day where you begin to realize especially as you interact with journalists reporting for these large news organizations is that they have neither the time nor the capacity to truly explore the ramifications of technology that theyre writing and reporting so and say what they do say look for soundbites they look for things that make it very easy to process so if its about like fast and fast money instant wealth both and stupid means they can write about that because the part of mousavi and his can comprehend that i didnt write my book a lamppost and stupid me now i mean is it is is very difficult to take the time to explain to an audience that may not understand what your own Database Technology which is minutes of us can go and explain what a block changes and dusted they take the path of least resistance and often that is just one that is very intellectually empty you know looking at this open source projects going back to linux you know its technology guys and theyre solving the problem of the software presented to them by microsoft and i thought you know we could do a better job of going to open source this and nerds and techno guys and programmers behind the scenes nobody ever hears about them came up with this product that was world beating product when Software Becomes money if it could have been coined as software that is money its open source money right how has this impacted the general mindset of the young entrepreneur and developer programmer because it seems like its not necessarily a match made of havent you could you give a guy whos maybe artistic you know spent. One thousand hours a day right here some least maybe worth and got a hundred million or two hundred Million Dollars in monitise liquid form so as a cultural observer and as a veteran in this space at your age talk to me about that is that a fair like observation what do you think about that the older folks get the harder it is for them to comprehend how natural this technology is in this new us Asset Classes to millennialism below visit weve always had below get weve already had in game Digital Currencies were used to the invertebrate of several years theres been you can mine digital gold and theres actually a real world value that you can go exchange those token internet tokens for you what you havent had is digital scarcity and that and thats a real innovation that provided and what makes it such a promising asking us to Digital Natives young people that have been on the internet like myself at least since we were like eight or nine when the World Wide Web really kind of took off. If used very natural the whole idea of scanning a cue our code to set aside money it says it doesnt feel that strange to us but i have to admit it is somewhat troubling the the immense riches other being created because it creates the wrong sort of narrative about the sec knowledge if you look at the articles written about me recently they there is no attempt to like go into any sort of anything that ive actually done in this industry these just want to write about like how much money i made and what it does is it perpetuates and becomes a selffulfilling prophecy of this culture of greed of of fast money and thats what it was never about for any of us that got into this early and most of us have seen the real upside of this weve got it because we truly believe this acknowledge you change the world and make a better talk about digital scarcity because that really is a key concept up again referring back to my experience like a safe in the path that i created for the virtual specialist in. To deal with the fact that youve got millions of users and there was no had it figured out a way to create prosperity across all those Asset Classes because you had proponents of people coming in by Leonardo Dicaprio so that price would soon hire and distort the market and so he had no scarcity had a trade a specialist mechanism to create the digital scarcity by affecting the way price discovery work ok now with this digital scarcity that problem is solved yet and its true across all the Crypto Assets and its something that lets say the gold people who dont like dont get you they dont understand that so can you for in a few lines address there what theyre missing about digital scarcity that would suit you have to understand in order to grasp the scarcity that exists in big corn is the fact that big coin is like i said before open source money and its aids features are programmable and deflation twenty one million big quinta will ever be created is something that is hard wired into big code and theres really no chance that that will ever be changed and so we soon. If you dont believe in code and you dont believe in Software Like youre not youre trying like youre never going to get to hire me a copy of chocolate ice until you know youre going to get regret your time is going to slam you earn her for ages im. Victimizers ages two for folks for folks that do not appreciate the power of software because eight in too many people can seem like magic its like you literally write something into a computer in it and in a makes other things now steve jobs said he said anything we do if its any good should appear like magic right and you know there are people that dont use up our products you know ok so now the market is im here at the conference here at the conference theres ice hundreds of ice yes its crazy and in. We hit that we hit peak i. C. M. Weve probably hit peak by c. E. O. I think were going to reach a point very soon where theres more regulatory enforcement theres a massive shakeout in the industry a lot of these really tokens go and disappear but the idea of an i. C. A. O. This democratized way of crowdfunding from around the world for new technologies and ideas or even just the ones in thats a should probably the most interesting concept is of course security tokens you know of last capital we did the very First Security token to represent represented a limited Partner Interest in our beds for fun but moving forward i believe launching turned entire world into a stock market so anything that is scarce in the real world in theory you can securitize in tokenize on a block and so i think well have to have been in real estate with intellectual property such as Digital Rights management to pay for say art as you identify yourself as a liberal and. Liberals progressive especially progressive. They are the last of this Technology Got the libertarians youve got the american capitalist youve got your conservatives and yet what youre describing there is would be a progressive. And yet they are the last to take a look at this how do you break through that to them. For me its been a process you know i i grew up always around available but i grew up in the most liberal medium sized city in america this is a and when i would go home and try to talk about this technology now theres a scene friends that i went to college in high school with sometimes angrily posts about big assets i realize it its a troy and the only thing you do i dont waste my time trying to evangelize some i think thats an approach you can take a much more interesting to me is actually developing applications that are so good for the world that are so damn ensure bleed. Better improvements of what we have are totally new innovations that you cant help but accept that this is ideas is a powerful in promising and socially beneficial tool trying to convince someone and the other way you know its futile good everybody got to thank me on the kaiser report my flaws are great but thats going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report the best guys are mistakes ever like i guess Jeremy Gardner is the founder of og are now with augur but it is author check out author if you want to see us on twitter go to kaiser report the next time. Heres what people have been saying about rejected in the us is it actually useful on awesome the only show i go out of my way to you really want to say really packs a punch. Yampa is the john oliver of hearty americans do the same we are apparently better than booth. I see people youve never heard of love back to the night president of the world bank so they. Seriously sent us an email. Representatives from most syrian groups including the government opposition and tribes have agreed to form a committee on a new constitution that despite heated discussions during peace talks in the russian resort of sochi. In an unprecedented move the pentagon has banned the us watchdog which oversees the situation in afghanistan from publishing information on who controls what on the ground that amid a string of deadly terror attacks in the country. The masses u. S. Officials were given by angry Palestinian Protesters stormed the meeting as tensions over. Recognition showed no sign of calming. Thanks for joining us my name is neil harvey this is r. T. International theres been a heated day in the russian resort of sochi where troops from the Syrian Opposition talk to representatives from damascus along with other concerned parties about the prospects for peace in syria and it seems that theres a palpable result emerging from those talks as explained. First of all theyve agreed on Twelve PointsTwelve Points along which a future syrian state will be built its its a guideline the document itself made the rounds at geneva multiple times but ultimately it got nowhere it was finally side here in sochi and its a road map that governs everything from syrian from Syrian Government itself to syrian sovereignty to how the military will be overhauled the other big thing that was agreed on is a Constitutional Reform Committee to amend or rewrite the syrian constitution the interesting thing here is that seats on it will be saved for those that were unwilling or unable to attend these talks this will be passed on to the u. N. So of the u. N. Will oversee this new committee and the u. N. Special envoy to syria will put us in the guide this initiative there was also of course drama nobody saw it coming this morning there was no way into of it but from late arrivals to cancel participation even arguments and shouting matches there was even heckling i want to express my sincere gratitude to our colleagues. Friends again i would like your attention. If its long lives in russia then let me speak please. There was sides as i mentioned the. Unwilling to come to these talks were talking here about the hardcore position of the high negotiations the committee that is based in saudi arabia and compromises many rebel groups theyve sent a delegation on the turkish pressure reportedly that came to sochi but they refused to leave the airport they stayed for about ten hours at the airport of sochi and they took offense at the various banners that were hung up in the city for these talks the turks tried to get them to come but to no avail nevertheless there were many other parties many denominations ethnicities christians you see these muslim susan shias theres certainly a lot of debates internationally Turkey Russia iran three big players the guarantees of the astronaut Peace Process they were all here the western partners for example the United States they only sent junior representatives and from what weve been told by Sergey Lavrov they havent displayed much optimism much enthusiasm for this sochi peace peace conference that was that the new year to go towards yes its way more difficult to negotiate when its not like minded people who sit around the table like in paris and washington but opposing sides but agreements by opposing sides are way more stable moen lasting and sustainable the news achieved in an industry like minded states taking decisions for the Syrian People and the syrians can decide the fate of their country the other thing that organizers and the Russian Foreign minister wanted to make very clear is that sochi is no alternative and it is not a competitor to the geneva process the geneva process will continue under the auspices of the un controlled by the un and overseen by the un and the u. N. Security council the u. N. Special envoy to syria he was here as an observer seeing what was happening seeing the discussions im aware. That there were intense discussions in this room today and youre proving it. It is normal in a democratic environment stories dont really normally we now have the text we have the theory we have the documents that have been signed by everyone what will means to be seen is whether theyll be put into practice you know whether theyll be enforced and what will come of this. One person has been killed and two injured in a bomb attack on a Turkish Military convoy in syria thats according to the army two of the victims were civilians including the person killed the attack was carried out by kurdish militants convoy it was on its way to live to assist in the creation of the deescalation zone. Meanwhile an Iraqi KurdishTelevision Channel is film some of the damage in the Syrian Kurdish enclave of afrin and friends been under attack by Turkish Forces for more than a week the video depicts the aftermath of shelling as well as civilian casualties. In an unprecedented move the pentagon is apparently instructed the Inspector General for afghanistan a watchdog which oversees the situation in the country to keep quiet over how much afghan territory is controlled by the government and how much by the taliban and other insurgent groups thats according to the watchdogs latest report. This development is troubling for a number of reasons most least of which is that this is the First Time Since has been specifically instructed not to release information marked unclassified to the american taxpayer the instructions are coming from the pentagon and they are given to the special inspector for general afghan reconstruction and from what we understand theyve instructed him not to give out certain pertinent information especially about casualties among Afghan Forces but one of the key things that theyve told him to leave out of his reports is the balance of power on the ground hes essentially not being permitted to reveal what territory is controlled by the taliban and what territory is controlled by the Afghan Government what territory is controlled by the ice all forces and thats Key Information if you want to understand what progress is being made and how the war is really going now at this point the usa has been in afghanistan for almost two decades its had its forces on the ground there have been air strikes and such and we actually have kind of an admission from secretary of Defense James Mattis that not a lot has been achieved during that time this is what he said during understand the urgency to understand its my responsibility were not winning in afghanistan right now and we will correct now at this point there has been a little bit of a change in strategy in afghanistan the usa is escalating its airstrikes and bombing of afghanistan at this point four thousand three hundred bombs were actually dropped in the year of twenty seventeen thats more bombs that were dropped in two thousand and fifteen and twenty sixteen combined however it hasnt really had the effect of changing things on the ground in fact the i still forces and the Taliban Forces have actually increased the number of attacks that theyve carried out lets take a look. At the. Now at this point the usa is sending mixed messages about the possibility of negotiations with the taliban we heard in october Rex Tillerson the u. S. Secretary of state say that the usa was not willing to negotiate with the taliban entirely but that it was willing to negotiate with what he called moderate voices among the taliban now weve heard from donald trump that there will be no negotiations with the taliban no talking to the taliban whatsoever theres no talking to the taliban we dont want to talk to the taliban and were going to finish what we have to finish what nobody else has been able to finish were going to be able to do it now weve heard a response from the taliban essentially mocking the United States and saying that if the usa wants to find them it knows where their office is located in the city of doha at this point we are not hearing moves from either side the taliban or the United States about resuming negotiations so at the moment it appears that the violence and chaos in afghanistan is going to continue. At least Affairs Expert at risk believes that the latest move by the pentagon is the effect of lead tantamount to an admission of failure in afghanistan. Same in some horrific attacks launched by the taliban and by isis which have now begun to target kabul the afghani capital previously we saw that they know there were attacks by these extremist groups but they wont focus so much on kabul kabul was considered to be relatively secure what weve seen now is that even the capital is no longer secure so in light of these failures in this who are u. S. War i think that the pentagon basically