One percent of over the counter drugs already expecting to live longer than any previous generation they spend on teeth whitening and cosmetic surgery and the golden years are in now baby boomers control eighty percent of all Leisure Travel spending theyve got the time and theyve got the money there were forty million grandparents in the usa in one nine hundred eighty there will be eighty million and twenty twenty and you know they dont those grandkids so while media buyers on madison avenue figure twenty five to fifty four is the demographic sweet spot the numbers say theyre aiming too low thats super excellent was why i want you to come and tell our viewers thank you so much if people want to catch the full monty version of the big picture were going to get it you can see this most recent episode and all the shows weve done at youtube dot com slash the big picture our t. Watch any time anywhere on any device thank you hala appreciate you being here that part. Time now for a quick break but stick around because when we return manila chan talks china and economic numbers plus why have a little bit of a dicey debate about regulating Digital Currencies stated. In the four page memo detailing extensive fi support to be used change the course of what is known as russia gate also does the trumpet ministration syria policy make any sense and whos the real bully trump in the media. In order to overthrow a regime it does take popular discontent and Popular Mobilization but it also requires actors with in the leadership of the regime who feel that the regime is no longer serving the National Interest you need people in the military or the bureaucracy or both who are willing to see the regime change otherwise they would be able to put down a popular revolt but did not have support at higher levels. Welcome back china post against a twenty seventeen as their Gross Domestic Product grew by six point nine percent at face value chinas growth in twenty seventeen with a faster record in over two years experts say china saw much stronger exports and the government infrastructure developed investments like the monumental belton Road Initiative help spur growth towards the end of the year however there is concern by some over the years that chinas rising debt is a problem the i. M. F. The International Monetary fund reported that the countrys debt has ballooned and was two hundred thirty four percent of total output beijing us said that it is taking steps to contain the risky debt despite the Economic Impact and on those numbers china has long been questioned about. Recipe of data they released to the public military joins us with more minoan what do you make of what the Senate People would saying about these numbers over the years you know its really tough to trust those numbers coming out of china because for years as you and i have talked about these numbers have been largely bogus chinas admitted to it in the past and we know that the reliability of their Economic Data from various regions are just simply not quantifiable so plain as that but in the big cities where you find Luxury Hotels coal is king there and thats driving much of the Economic Data were seeing today just look at how much mining for metals and coal account for local g. D. P. That is later transmitted to the Overall National g. D. P. Now the darker regions mining accounts for as much as forty percent of the market in those provinces and specifically the large portion that is Inner Mongolia officials there admitted to over inflating their twenty six thousand mining numbers to look more favorable you can probably assume then that the same is true for their twenty fifteen numbers to the g. D. P. Reported versus reality shows a steep spike up nearly twenty five percent from the year before that sort of swing is just not realistic but across the country coal remains steady almost kind of flat brant crude and steel looked almost inextricably tied to one another both taking dips in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen as well both climbing back up in seventeen but now steel moving north now an indicator of more building happening in the country and then over the province of the nearing there are a major problem in why we cant trust the Economic Data coming from china talk about fake news has admitted to faking data for five years now and have yet to issue revised numbers even still so according to the Financial Times landings local economy has seen dramatic rises and falls telling of a very unstable market but what what theyve previously. Portage showed a more gradual decrease those simply were false and over and shan see this is chinas most coal dependent economy its a suspected that they have flubbed on the numbers too but their reporting has been slightly less dramatic chinese watchdog groups do however believe their local economies saw measurable recovery from twenty six thousand to seventeen so bart these volatile market fluctuations in china some of some of the most key provinces are likely offset by the big cities like beijing where manufacturing remains strong china still en route to become the worlds biggest economy despite these fraudulent numbers believe it or not super important thank you r g correspondent manila tran thank you. Im going to talk Digital Currencies again and bitcoin and were joined by geoffrey talker once again were pleased to have him hes the editorial director for the American Institute for Economic Research jeffrey thank you for being with us again we sure appreciate it. Its my pleasure thanks for having me ok now the last time we spoke you ended the interview and said that you know you dont want any regulation and you know i get that approach because i dont want to have Innovation Award it but what do you say those who to those who lost money like in mt gox and and some other things where some of this was significant money four hundred fifty Million Dollars at the outset what do you say about that i dont think the regulators would have prevented about gox and the great thing about that mt gox experience is the top the Crypto Community something there will never a big again be anything like that that was back in the early days when there was a lot of centralization and mine and there was pretty much only one exchange in the world then we have a lot more exchanges which by the way wed have a lot more exchanges if the fence and hadnt into enter interrupted the development of that sector back in april two thousand and thirteen and made him jump through all these regulatory hurdles and that was that that was a disaster we would have thousands of these exchanges now and now theres just not as many as there could be but well never see another mt gox again i believe theres a lot of selfregulation that goes on here and gets awkward with the regulators imposing all their Old Fashioned rules on this twenty First Century Technology Like no youre costumer rules i mean its very expensive from a regulatory point point of view too on board and get off get in and out of big coin you know move dollars to pick when to get between back into dollars theres all these hurdles you have to go through even even buying at a big point a. T. M. In the United States is an arduous process you having to you know hold up all sorts of identification and all these things and you know that is not true around the world i mean i was in tel aviv last month and there was no break elation and because of all you just take your circles put them in there and you can exchange it for because i think thats where we need to go we need to get away from this idea of control. In the sector and just let it evolve naturally and normal market process were going to have to get used to in this country a competitive money system its going to be a little weird for americans because we think the dollar is almighty and the one true currency. Thats the typical american that to a lot of people dont feel that way around the world in latin america people trading cons all kinds of currencies all its all the time with Exchange Rates and that sort of thing we need to think of ourselves in the United States as doing that in the future ok ok i want i want on why saying im going to narrow and everything yeah ok so theres some of it i agree i mean the thing about you know a square peg in a round hole you know use it using Old Fashioned regulations for a new innovation a Digital Currency im with you one hundred percent but by the same token i am really concerned because i want Digital Currencies to take off i think theyre the future but at the same time we have seen things and again this is you know history but we saw silk road where you know Adam Exchange that things were being for those who dont remember that point was being used for Illegal Drugs and weapons trade Money Laundering even Human Trafficking and of course nobody wants that to occur again but unless you figure out some basic sideboards again nothing overzealous jeffrey im worried that will have a few bad actors who will impact all of the Digital Currency universe so i dont know what the answer is but i dont think it i dont know i elation from i expected its not going to say yeah i think methot and look if you dont you can regulate things like arms trafficking drugs Drug Trafficking all these other things you can regulate that as illicit products a list that Illicit Services but that doesnt require that you go in and interfere with the development of this Awesome New Technology i would like to see none whatsoever i mean its everything the government has done up to now has been bad for big quaint and. Then we just give a quick example the s. E. C. Came out with a regulation in two thousand seventeen on i. C. s which are initial koin offer and this is a new way for Small Businesses and Startup Companies to raise money in a democratic way so curious my cool new service im going to put on the block chain and tokenize that let you mine it and and and and and if it goes up in value then the profits will accrue to this company that we have capital to start and so its a way of democratizing Venture Capital funding does he want to know i know what you know is yeah yeah no i mean its like an i. P. O. And they were doing this little effort right and not only really was going to go easily well exactly exactly and so the f. C. C. Comes out with this weird they a couple of paragraphs like if these look and feel and act like securities youre going to have to be regulated by the f. C. C. Well guess what the reason they were doing so well is precisely because they werent be regulated but this is the but the regulation there announcement was so strange you couldnt even unpack it well that terrified a lot of people in the United States really did there were a lot of i. C. A. O. That were coming online that just shut down because nobody wants to you know get in trouble the law be accused of being a criminal so guess where all the i c os moved to russia china israel. I mean the ice fields are going all all over the world now but not in the United States because everybody got scared what are we doing that its crazy what i thought i mean this is you know i just didnt they closed down i suppose china and russia no well. I think they make various belligerent statements but i think i think of china and russia people are less compliant then. Because theres a lot of i. C. A. O. Money being being raised and many countries around the world by the u. S. This used to be the home of innovation i mean you know we host of the worlds worlds fairs all throughout the Nineteenth Century with the leaders and in fly and the commercialization of steel you know the the internet you know the u. S. Has been the home for innovation for so long i dont know you know weve got this weve got this beautiful block chain stuff going on right now and all you ever hear from the fed from the treasury from the ses c. And from congressman politicians the bureaucrats is warning and so this is probably bad stuff stay away from it you know i mean i read a statement from from a Federal Reserve member of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve system that they said look our Payment Systems are perfectly fine theyre very very very good. And theyre going to get better and so we dont we dont need block change we dont need cryptocurrency is weve got a perfectly good system thats ridiculous and theyve got a model t. Compared to the miles are already and the guy surely knows that so what i mean i agree with me is if you need to be celebrating technology jeffrey let me ask you one more question before we run out of our a lot of time here so last time we spoke you talked about you know Counter Party risk and that with that being one of the reasons why. The digitals hadnt been adopted into you know taking a credit card a bitcoin card or whatever ripple card and using it for a cup of coffee but one area of regulation that does involve counterparty risk is the futures industry which at the end of two thousand and seventeen both Chicago Board Options Exchange and its called a Mercantile Group started trading as you know Bitcoin Futures and that price has been fairly stable in the relation to the underlying and with that you do have counterparty risk somebody is going to be paid there and so can i get out of you at least the admitting that the counterparty risk in that regulated markets a good thing. Well i think youre going to have kind of part of this kind of time we use these the mediating institutions and Financial Intermediaries that thats always going to be there my point about kind of kind of party risk is if youre trading crypto to crypto as a physical assets not really physical to Digital Asset then youve done something amazing i mean you basically make it made it possible to have peer to peer transactions without regard to geography between any two individuals in the world over over a real piece of immutable property claims and move those things import them weightless lee and space mostly through through anywhere in the world and that is a Remarkable Technology and if you dont see why that is a transformative thing what the power of that is then you really dont get crypto and a lot of people dont understand that and its not just Digital Currency from my perspective its blocked change i mean in fact block chain may even ultimately be bigger than Digital Currencies just because its spread out through so many other i think a protestant but look were going to talk about claims more hillary to come back on oh listen i would love that we need to talk about those or its a big important topic and its decisive for our future for our children their children theyre all going to live in the block chain everywhere i couldnt agree with you more jeffrey talker editorial director for the American Institute for Economic Research thank you as always for your time well see again pusher. And finally on a programming note ill be in davos switzerland for the rest of this week at the World Economic forum well be bringing you some great boom busting interviews and will have some help holding down the fort here in d. C. From ashley banks and military so talk to you tomorrow from davos be sure to catch boom bust it boom you tube it boom bust dot com slash boom bust r t c n x time. Thats right the stand. Alone one. I know that i know a lot of i think there are rather you know i thought for a kid that. Im going to let compatible and im catching the new. Kid and. I have to see china for all that it. Was then. And. Then but suddenly on the highway on the innocent. Its whole food place choice and theres a payoff to a mysterious says. Someone else for that the couple from time to mr hague to jim and then i hope that our family in the court. You mean you dont. Teach what they did they could put it. In the most through only ten space. Left alone they. Said. Claiming to know servant is messy that. Alex you speak french. Most of. The senate. Is busy the Council Still have to. Hit. Zero kentucky. Boy you could find. A co money since she was almost no coal mines left. The jobs are gone all the pay was. Sees people the survivors of disappearing before their eyes. I remember thinking when i was younger that if anything ever happened to the coal mines here that it would become a ghost town but i never thought in a million years i would see that and its how its happened. Brawler ups in the Israeli Parliament during a speech by the us Vice President on moving the American Embassy to jerusalem. Prepares to deal with a humanitarian crisis in Northern Syria amid a deadly turkish offensive against kurdish forces. Britains Top Army Official demands more funding to counter the suppose of threat from russia. With the latest on the storys been had dot com coming up though a former policy advisor to the u. S. Government is the guest on sophie and co talking about revolutions throughout the world and how they can be avoided. Hello welcome to. Attention and societies sometimes reach a boiling point if not taken care of leading to evolution how do they work and are they in voidable i asked professor Jack Goldstone scholar of revolution former consultants to the Us Government and professor of Public Policy at the george mason university. Nor the us they govern and the peoples discontents becomes intolerable politics spills out from Parliament Chambers into the streets and squares what does it take to get from a peaceful protest to an uprising revolution just toppling governments really bring about the end of people. And what happens after a revolution is successful. Professor Jack Goldstone really great to have you on our program today welcome thank you very nice to be here by so lets start with tunisia i remember it was seen as sort of an arab spring poster child now seventy years on the sea or has started yet with new protests and people are saying hardly anything has changed why is it as a Success Story well if you compare the conditions in tunisia to those in libya or syria or yemen it still looks great by comparison revolutions in general are messy uncertain if you look at the situation in ukraine after the two thousand and fourteen revolution the transitions are all difficult at least tunisia is not in a civil war get to ukraine but if we talk pretty kewl about tunisia because thats where the arab spring started. In comparison everything is different but if we talk in particular about tunisia the nothing. Has really changed within the borders of tunisia for the better and may well i wouldnt say nothing has changed you have groups that are now active in politics that previously were shut out you have different coalitions forming what you dont have is a kind of idealized utopian transition to denmark right you dont take a country that was middle income corrupt and authoritarian and instantly create a somehow rich modern peaceful country it takes a long time to complete that transition tunisia is having problems thats to be expected but it has not yet collapsed and that is worth applauding. So if you look at the arab world thats only home to like five percent of the worlds population yet in accounts to how awful the terrorist attacks that take place in the whole world and theres still so much. And so much instability young people are growing more and more unhappy do you think there is a chance of a new arms spring new revolt well were never there is injustice and deep inequality theres always a chance of a revolt people get angry about injustice they will tolerate poverty they will tolerate slow progress if they think their government is working in their interests but once they believe the government is no longer. Taking care of them in any way if the government officials are simply enriching themselves you have the risk of revolt and i think certainly throughout the arab world that risk will continue. Just in a nutshell the whole arab spring that took place seventy years ago would you say it brought the region for. Region any good or where pretty much where we started off i would say the results are mostly negative but again you could have said the same thing about the french revolution and seven hundred eighty nine it started off with great ideals and it plunged the entire continent into war the nature of revolutions as they nurture wonderful dreams they often run into difficult painful realities but in the long run of history revolutions often serve the role of creating a change creating a space for something new to develop we dont know how long that will take revolution it will know what kind of change it will be no we dont in that sense a revolution is like giving birth you dont quite know ten or twenty years down the line what type of person your child will grow up to be but you need to have birth in order to have change so you brought up ukraine and obviously revolution in ukraine. Big hopes and now people are looking back and theyre saying the situation is so bad we might as well have a new revolution so i was wondering if revolution happens ones i mean durables destabilize country to a point where the country is prone to fall back into this arrest time and time again one of the difficulties with color revolutions is they are peaceful relatively but because no deaths i dont mean no deaths i mean you dont have a kind of mass terror and civil war its hard to have a revolution without a some number of people a few dozen a few hundred maybe even a few thousand but the great revolution is killed anywhere from. Tens of thousands to millions so the color revolutions are more peaceful by comparison but they also tend to be less complete in the changes they bring you dont have a new government that completely extinguishes its enemies you dont have a new government that develops new sources of revenue or a new ways of doing business thats rather a partial change and for that reason there are a lot of problems that remain unsolved and theres always a risk of going back there is what i call a partial or incomplete change that has the potential for regression or for further progress but in either way is not yet complete so what does it take for a successful revolution our Relations Just lucky revolves i mean does it take more than a clean siddons and angry population to make it a successful revolution or theres much more to it if it was that easy thered be more revolutions in history than there are in order to overthrow a regime it does take popular discontent and Popular Mobilization but it also requires actors with it in the leadership of the regime who feel that the regime is no longer serving the National Interest you need people in the military or the bureaucracy or both who are willing to see the regime change otherwise they would be able to put down a popular revolt that did not have support at higher levels some one talk about america a little bit because theres also a rise in more radical movements like we see the black lives matter there is the right and the other flank i mean these groups arent exactly prone to dialogue and compromise theyre actually quite uncompromising is there a chance that they could actually radicalize american politics or its a thing that will pass well if you talk to a lot of people in america they feel our politics have already been radicalized democrats and republicans are not talking to each other that much President Donald Trump seems to be Something Different hes not a conventional republican. Hes certainly not friends with the democrats he seems to represent Something Else at what he calls the voice of the forgotten people by which he means rural small town america which is not being well served by the forces of globalization automation meritocracy and so we essentially have a radical Popular Movement aiming to restore Something Like the america post World War Two when america felt it seemed the dominant country in the world thats what a lot of americans long for sometimes movements that which is cited the party and yes and also the black wax matter and the right flank do you feel like they have a real chance of succeeding and getting somewhere with being at the helm of the country well black lives matter is succeeding in bringing Police Reform there are a lot of people who are quite distressed and we now require police to wear cameras when they carry out arrest so we have a record of whats happened but let me point to another radical movement and that is the hash tag me to a movement to say the traditional ways that men have interacted with women are not going to be accepted anymore yes we live in a Patriarchal Society but that does not mean men in power can impose their will on women or men who are their juniors and this has led to the downfall of some extraordinarily wealthy and powerful white men in america who thought they were untouchable so im thinking massive protests in the United States that have taken place in recent years like there are millions marching against war in iraq. A lot of people writing against Police Killing of black people unjustly. Sit ins at the caught up pipeline and really they brought nothing why is that why are the protests of today weaker than lets say those of the sixtys because they really made ground its a very good comparison i grew up with the riots of the sixtys and they had an enormous impact. On civil rights womens rights and of course ending u. S. Involvement in vietnam right now the movements that were seeing tend to be specific to a particular cause as you said stop a pipeline here deal with Police Brutality focus on womens problems now the great thing about america is when people want to express themselves they have the right to protest to assemble to create sit ins disruptions and that has always been a healthy part of american politics its less effective now because the people who are looking for change have not come together in a broad nash
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