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National debt also you have the fact that. You know the stock markets going to to twenty eighteen at some of the most overvalued numbers in the history of stock markets so i reckon that obviously markets can remain at more rational than anybody could remain solvent short betting against it but i think should there be a spectacular bust. I think even with you know even though the fed has raised Interest Rates a little tiny bit i think theres theres little thats going to be available to combat the crash that does come if it does come in twenty eighteen or twenty nineteen and i think therefore its probably quite wise to home call thats my opinion thats why a couple of mornings or so ive picked up on was the debt you mentioned debt is rising and gold tends to track the rise of debt you know it hasnt the last few years has been stuck in kind of a bearish trend compared to some other stuff but if it catches up to the debt chart you know if you overlay those two you know you could easily get the twenty four twenty five hundred on gold and that would bring it back to kind of a normalized price action versus the amount of debt in the system i agree with you there so thats like a almost one hundred percent move from here and of course silver being its crazy uncle would mean you know so over a fifty sixty seventy dollars an ounce you know that would be a big bang for the silver box for sure and im not in any doubt about that now speaking of sort of debt economies overloaded with debt you had the bubble of japan from one thousand nine hundred eighty seven eighty eight when it started to crash eighty nine eighty nine of those tracks. And so its still you know what the stock market there are still twenty five percent below that peak in one nine hundred eighty nine so however you know what three decades law that last decades. Theyre looking forward to possibly coin actually finally boosting g. D. P. Their big queen could boost japans g. D. P. No more analysts say japans bitcoin craze could help the countrys Economic Growth Research Analysts at no more instinet said we estimate the wealth effect from unrealized gains on big queen trading by japanese investors since the start of twenty seventeen and estimate a potential boost to Consumer Spending of between twenty three point two billion yen and ninety six billion yen which is about two hundred six million to eight hundred fifty five million i think thats you know its something i point three point three Percentage Points they would add to g. D. P. We were the japanese are some of the biggest four extreme years in the world well this is an amazing story because they were saying real geo political impact of it going on a g. Twenty country g seven country japan actually the spending power that comes with the rise of big going in the millions of people who are buying it in japan the multi billion dollars that theyve appreciated in value is causing a genuine effect in their economy and this is going to be the year twenty eight where big going to crypto currencies have this geo political influence youve got the central bank of ghana who is allegedly were going to get more of a rumor on twitter might not be real going to dig into this im reaching out to my contacts in ghana to get some people on the show to talk about this but theyre adding to their central bank certainly for a fact we know that all gary has three billion dollars worth of bitcoin right and thats because they have some bad guys there are a lot of the you know the online hackers and you know scam artists that sort of nigerian prince scam artists a lot of it goes through there the people of venezuela have been you know using liquid as a savior as a lifeline because their currency wanted to hyperinflationary collapse so theres four countries right there that are still in some process of getting more involved on a geo political level into bitcoin and of course theyre going to be buying them for. There are Central Banks and the sovereign wealth funds we buying it as well plus runs and you know you get to twenty eight thousand and twenty eighteen as a reasonable price target pretty quickly so i mean these could be issues that basically negate my bet on gold because im betting that the stock markets will crash if the economy starts booming especially in japan which has been dead for so long you know could it could be a change my thesis but right now i feel like it will crash and heres some data you so. Going into the First Quarter of twenty eighteen moreover the fact that the rise in prices was concentrated in twenty seventeen q four could result in the wealth effect materializing in twenty eighteen q one in the First Quarter of twenty teen and if that is the case we estimate a potential boost to real g. D. P. Growth on an annualized quarter on quarter basis of up to about point three Percentage Points and on top of that i want to say the Fourth Quarter of of the u. S. G. D. P. I think december is going to show a real shocking amount of spending on durable goods and. Investment by Companies Cap ex i know for a fact that i did that because once the you know they are the tax cuts came in at the end of december you know your write offs your deductibles like are way higher for a twenty seventeen if so if you could jam in as much cap ex and twenty seventeen years youre going to be able to write off far more of it than you are in twenty eighteen so i know i bought are a lot of Equipment Computers and stuff that we need for the kaiser report and our other productions so i think were going to have a surprise. And how much further this market rally might be able to go oh well thats an interesting analysis you know to further look at the price of gold action and what am i doing twenty eighteen ive been saying for a while that the bitcoin is ation hyper because it is ation of the Global Economy will put a dent in the machinery on wall street to suppress the price of gold as weve seen them do for a number of years and that will free up a path for gold to move higher as well no more their Analysis Shows that the japanese hold three point seven million bitcoin which would equate to about twenty eight point five billion dollars at the Exchange Rate day at that moment that they did this analysis sure well its sound money and its money that is pushing out all the junk money all the money the money world is collapsing the u. S. Dollar is in a hyperinflationary collapse against big going and money is headed today you know they tried it in nine hundred seventy one they went off the Gold Standard effectively and we went into a period thats never been tried before of every single currency in the world referencing each other with no buttress or without any balance without any reference commodity to give that any kind of reasonable foundations and failed so the other child i see for twenty eighteen is the. Real Bitcoin Companies coming to the market and the exposure of these kind of fake hysteria a lot of people there there is kind of a dot com like crazy around it going people have no understand and theyre just throwing money at all sorts of stuff all sorts junk that they have no idea what it is one of them is c. E. O. Of soaring block chain stock sells about eight hundred seventy thousand dollars worth of the shares ahead of a small Biotech Company turned krypto has made hundreds of thousands of dollars in stock sales already john or president c. E. O. And chairman of riaa block chain disclosed in a filing with a us securities and Exchange Commission that he sold thirty thousand three hundred eighty three shares at a weighted average price of twenty eight dollars and sixty one cents remember the stock of this Company Called riot blog chain it used to be a Biotech Company they soared by six hundred percent once they change their name to block chain and their their nasdaq stock symbol to riot from like bio p. But the fact is that this company right lists three block chain investments on its website a Canadian Digital Currency Exchange called coin square a crypto currency Accounting Firm called verity and test pay which is planning to apply Block Technology to telecom payments so not very Big Companies in the space and the value of his company is that two hundred seventy million in december just because he changed his name to block chain to talk about hooters you could talk about hooters thats a company here in the United States which is as the name suggests its like a rush it was a restaurant chain a kind of went out of favor because of all this whole hash tag me too and when was rice becoming a little bit more prominent and hooters was a chain where you go in large breasted women serve you beer or food yes thats the concept of food hers and one of the companies that owns a lot of Hooters Restaurants thats publicly listed introduced a crypto. See. Yeah they announced it would start they would have their own crypto or right crypto or something and the stock skyrocketed based on based on the on a lot of you know what happened was the stock kind of went you know reacted a lot of way many react when they go to hooters yes well i think those sort of things it shows that theres a demand for some sort of investment part of the problem is that there is the i. C. A. O. So a lot of the big names the sort of cryptographers and engineers and anybody who could devise a real crypto currency air real block chain you know theres no real incentive for them to go to the Public Markets they just would rather do an i. C. A. O. Because they dont have to give up equity then in a way so i think this is the problem is that for any ordinary investor who doesnt know the world crypto know how to get an ether wallet and get these tokens they go to the stock market looking for anything and all you have to do is change a name to blotching and a lot of people can get scammed that way because those are not going to harken back to the dot com era where Big Companies put a dot com in their name and the valuations went up dramatically thats true there seems to be a lot of this plagiarism going on where you just say all the blocks script and you have an Immediate Response in the marketplace i mean are we talking a lot about gold because in the second half we got jim records in this kind of a sympathy chat about gold just to make jims calls and no gold im talking my book its called talking my vote talking your book so your book era gold person and silver i would imagine well i actually over the christmas break i spoke to about two i heard of two different. Whales who were going along gold as well i think really yeah so i think this is a kind of ok thats fascinating well we got to take a break when we come back as jim rickards dont go away much more coming your way so stay right here at the car is a report on our. I had a great education a good job and a family that loved me. I never had to worry about how i would be somewhere i would speak. Im facing christmas alone out on the streets of london. Well you know. I thought the glory like go to you know to simulate it to still give up food for the homeless. As you dont really feel like he would be needed. And then. The guy just came over to me assure me and gave you this book. When you dont see what the teachers delicto are to get it could put it. To what they need not through only ten spaces to. Make. Left alone kelly said. Claiming to know servant is messy that. You speak french. While the same thing the same delphic continue his talk of busy cutting up till its still active. Welcome back to kaiser report time now to go to the one the only the prolific author the trends see year the forecasts are on paralleled jim records good to with you max welcome to twenty eighteen thank you i enjoy it so far so far so good to see how it ends up they could be the year of living dangerously all right so lets get through some questions here because you are without a doubt got your finger on the paulson terms of trends and the intersection between markets and other things as they are got to talk about what we may be seeing in the next year or two now one trend obviously is Artificial Intelligence youve got a boom you know was driving cars chat bot apps whats happening in ai how big a market is it works going well and is potentially unlimited this is now where what we call third third wave Third Generation so the first generation is kind of your big data and simple rhythms a Second Generation was was deep learning where the machine could teach and so its output would become input that would basically span the capability of machine third wave is now building these fuzzy college of networks and getting inputs from other sources of particularly i. B. M. s watson machine which is the its not the fastest computer because the fastest computer that can read the volume of plain language that it does in a different languages so now its like having a thousand eilis working twenty four hours a day and actually maybe ten thousand on this you cant replicate that with with humans but you can do with machines that can they bring that amount of data and with meaning the Machine Learning combined with the resulting data in the algorithms is very powerful so theyre going to have for a punk band fozzy cognitive network. Yet you play instruments i dont have much older child and i did every. Probably wouldnt be able to keep the beat you know so ok lets ask about what this does to the workforce because obviously if you have self arriving cars and. Truck drivers for example is a huge work force in america and south having trucks what happens to the workforce i think there are structural problems with the workforce that had nothing to do with technology and what were talking about they do have to do the education and training the Opioid Crisis there are a lot of protheroe a lot of structural headwinds but as far as technology is concerned it doesnt displace as many people as a lot of people think for example lets say your your nurses aid and theres certain tests that you do and you can automate those it doesnt mean you get rid of the nurses aid it just means the nurses aide has more time for sort of you know more personal care or other kinds of observations of cetera so you know the computer keeps Getting Better and the a keeps Getting Better so the quality of the care goes up it doesnt mean a person doesnt have a job it just means that they might you know pivotal little bit or have different skills that the machine cant match so i dont see a display look at an Amazon Warehouse stand thousand robots those arent people those are robots well a lot of drivers out there and there are people in those warehouses and theyre working pretty hard so youre right about things overstated yes youre right about the robotics and the automation absolutely right about that but its not displacing as many jobs as you suggest is actually making those jobs more productive there are however there are structural problems in the workforce but i dont think it comes from robots as a second and education or lack of education lack of opportunity lack of Labor Mobility bad tax policy and i would not underestimate the impact of the opioid case and also the second time youve mentioned the lp out crisis whats going on there jim what do you mean the open i think its been very well covered but but the point is this is the action is very widespread so if youre serious out if you cant hold a job if youre a recovering addict might not be able to get a job or if youre a closet addict you might be on the job and performing dangerously and that affects productivity loss effects in there all these not applying for the opiate crisis the Big Drug Companies and the doctors and pharmacies that all played along with the tens of billions of dollars of profits have been made i mean i just really simple example so. Oh you get some you know you get some or also look at all these to be found we know we know whats the weather how do you how do you address that what what do you did well we actually have a pretty good civil tort system in this country is this is going to play out like the back of the crisis is Companies Going to you know friends with some of the big class action lawyers and theyre circling the wagons ok another so you Like Technology you know sure Big Technology for a lark its i like markets i like markets l. A. Technology Like Technology and markets on the bus but im also wary of some of the some of the downside well what about the the stupid question futures you know there are big coin futures the effects of big oil has popped over the wall street divide theyve got a big question answers. You know jamie diamond has come out you know as a fraud youre taking the same position as jamie dimon which i know you must love that well ive got to say its a fraud a ponzi and a mania all the same time but the futures contracts. What is the talk walk us through that and if the wall street hates because some of it does i think so does the wall street likes something that makes money and futures make my you see the big corn crowd when they saw that the sky where the Options Exchange and c. M. E. Were listed because futures they see this validates a bubble but thats not true theyre out to make money but is it off a feeling prophesy in other words its own its own prophesied it starts trading because futures people in are now paying their employees and declined you know this so its becoming a unit of account its becoming a currency in this way and doesnt it youre in analytics and data meister dont use do you see in your work out all this kid transform the Global Markets as we know it well i was very privileged to meet the man who came up with the phrase selffulfilling prophecy where we came urban public really great so shows us of the Twentieth Century if there if there were a nobel prize in sociology which there is and he would have won it had that Long Term Capital Management you were there obviously going to list. Liquidations and i were i met robert. As Professor Emeritus called me but his son robert c. Merton who did win the nobel prize was one of our partners and i met this father so he can have the self fulfilling prophecy but the point is it can be good or bad a bank runs a selffulfilling prophecy the corn prices going up is a selffulfilling prophecy because of prices going to two hundred dollars can be a selffulfilling prophecy its basically crowd behavior cascades and whats called and i think hyper synchronicity what sometimes it becomes the new the new reality the new norm you know that the Printing Press for example was a great little technology at the time and your beloved Catholic Church was like wiped out and a lot of ways because the Printing Press the Catholic Church is stronger than ever but theres then that the Printing Press is the perfect analogue because this is where because fans lets call them really confuse the public you have to separate the corn the technology the Printing Presses the technology a Printing Press can produce a babo or it can produce pornography so ones good ones bet but they are not the same printing printed paper and the press so i thought of laci and the validation of the chain three of the coin are paraphrases they are interlinked they are one it is the father son and holy ghost if you will of the movement that is this currency is the coin is the currency and ill agree its a kind of currency it depends on the block your block chain has a future because it does not bother with regard to the because the future is very uncertain point in a sea of that the price of the queen for for the because futures are cast settles theres no actual big question about just people making bets and you get a cash payoff in cases like on the racetrack but the big point future is there was a huge diversions to the becoming price list on the exchanges thats rare because theres an arbitrage opportunity there is the always trade the book when you when that happens you sell the future you buy the physical the fact that that was not converging tells me theres no liquidity in the physical because otherwise you could do the trade yeah its an efficient market at this time its a new market and were certainly saying. Some big growth and that my. Lets talk a little geopolitics or so north korea. Twenty eighteen hot sound was going to a very high probability of war now theres you know probably get past the olympics there are some channels being opened up between north korea and the United States and thats a good thing but you really only two two well there are three outcomes one is kim jong un gets assassinated this regime change we probably only do that with the help of the chinese pretty clear the chinese are not on board so i give the maybe a twenty percent probability but you cant make it zero so the other two probably one is kim jong un stands down he verifiably voluntarily gives up his Weapons Development programs invites inspectors a set or i give that maybe a ten percent chance hes not going to do it he might pretend but hes been lying for twenty five years you know this is been dumped in trumps lap its really the fault of clinton bush and obama how do you rate tillerson. Elect or something is doing a good job under difficult circumstances and always kind of you know not says the president a little bit but i personally rated very highly i think is that hes the right man for the job and when youre the c. E. O. Of exxon you are the secretary of state in some ways i mean he goes around he says that he considers the home so they have their own Security Intelligence Security Apparatus of course absolutely that you are allowed to in size to the u. S. Government everybody has some eyes right lets talk about gold ok gold of course getting back to you know before bit quite people used gold and but its still around russias buying a lot of all right so theres huge geopolitics theyre going on you know one of the first guys to come out and say identify that a country like russia by buying lots of coal is giving themselves some strategic advantages Going Forward cuz if we have a collapse in the current Monetary System for the currency system and we go back to something equating to a Gold Standard russia and other countries china are going to be in good shape whats the update on that well there are no b. Allin as the head of the central bank russias my favorite central banker in the world. Things really smart doing things right but was interesting is that were beginning in the middle two thousand and fourteen through the beginning of two thousand and seventeen for the price of world collapse went from about one hundred dollars a barrel low of about twenty five now its you know up around a little bit closer to sixty but still a collapse from where it was russias reserves in round numbers went from about five hundred billion dollars to three hundred billion dollars so its a forty percent decline in the reserves during that entire time she kept buying gold she never sold an ounce ago she sold euro she sold dollars she sold treasuries do whatever she had to do but they kept buying also very impressed with smart oh i met your guy use is russia is closing in on two thousand tons us as a thousand tons approximately the us is four times bigger but the but us economy is twelve times bigger so if you look at the gold to g. D. P. Ratio which is how i measure it twice russia is twice as strong as the United States such as russia its also i dont. Think gold to g. D. P. In russia is double the nonstop all which is a source of strength say china is not there yet because their economy is much larger but theyre acquiring gold why dont they are going to list a lot of trade failing there was you know handwringing about all the roubles dying is crashing but thats out of a good. Well they theyve allowed the will to trade pretty freely but they are doing it with a good central banker this is in the ninetys is in the yeltsin when you know they will collapse theyre actually much better central Bank Managements a day as a saver and much stronger go position but we talked earlier. In one of our interviews about russia and china and others working on it just to be legit technology basically a coin not decline but but some token some digital coin with every encryption cetera that they could use to make payments between among themselves so about subpoenas bypass the i. M. F. Bypass swift i call your existence car rental ok ripple as theyre calling the banks right now value all across the world its a pretty mind coin theyre likely theyre likely to develop their own coin but be that as of now using these tribulations acknowledged but the point is. Theyre combining the old in the new gold is one of the old as far as money if not the oldest form of money digital cryptocurrency is the newest form of money the washer be using both gold for source the source of strength digital cryptocurrency is for convenience and these are payment and then you know i wore my colleagues who were always like used to our sanctions used our sanctions to be careful to wish where they do work im sure im going to force people to write an essay and thats happened ok but just by quickly. Forgot all the twenty eight day words had it its had a higher and higher thinker sure they are. Going higher and twenty i got to go thank you all right what i was going to do it for this edition of the kaiser part of a mascot or as they say i would like to get jam records hes a smart guy hes got books he reads books you should read books you can find us on twitter accounts report and i stand by off. In the heart of the swiss alps this is a place probably more secretive than the pentagon more mysterious than the cia and better guarded than forty six swiss customs. Is controlled by them and they impose the opening to. The. Us the procedures in place of the strictest in all europe must to pieces by artists like pick and modigliani camps and soon inside this warehouse thats where the report comes in it covers up deals which are naturally discreet commercially discreet but also discreet because they concern for. Some of those paintings the dark secrets nobody knows how many of these secrets a kept inside the geneva free ports system. An inventory of all the works in the freeport who knows how many there are three hundred three thousand three hundred thousand its a matter of confidentiality only is it the black p. R. Business. In two thousand and sixteen the Panama Papers show the world with a tax haven the secrets two trillion United States dollars pass through most often say cut in the amount of time that weve been in Panama Papers exposure thats what it shows a lot of money it really is. Journalism its an act of journalism looking at things that people want to keep secret and asking why would they want to keep these things secret. Millions of most like fonseca documents were examining. All the people which basically have tried to get an advantage out of this thought it was newspaper. And probably other politician which was the other politician the media would point to find their targets such as the kings of morocco in saudi arabia the president of argentina several prime ministers. And russian president Vladimir Putin of course. Oh my god ive had so i have sued so many newspapers for defamation some things dont just happen by chance it was very striking there were no more americans to go especially good a lot of people from the brics countries specially brazil russia and china their special project reveals what was missed in the media coverage. The panama chronicles. What politicians do something to. Put themselves on the line to get accepted or rejected. So when you want to be president. Or some want to. Have to go right to be for us its like before three in the morning cant be good. Im interested always in the waters and that. There should. We can extend it to julian no songs has been granted an ecuadorian id card but the countrys push to result his case is reportedly being read to the resistance from the u. K. Government. A new u. N. Report says iraqi refugees are being forced to return followed by the countrys Security Forces into areas that are still deemed dangerous. And will germany get a Coalition Government all eyes are on the countrys top politicians as they try to hammer out a deal on the final day of charged

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