That but we now have people in the bitcoin in the gold space talking about referring to the fact that goal are there one of the other thing this is a headline from daily reckoning and by the way you know you and i first when we first met back in two thousand and three daily reckoning was one of the only sort of online sites available at that time one of the go to sites you know this is way before facebook and twitter and all that sort of stuff we went to the daily reckoning all the time they talked about gold they talked about silver and heres a headline from the daily reckoning how bitcoin killed gold. Most seasoned traders concluded that the advent of Bitcoin Futures what unraveled the insane krypto rally weve witnessed over the past twelve months futures traders would eat the amateurs alive and slam the price lower once shorting bitcoin became an option they said but so far theyve been dead wrong so you know they go into how coin trading has still bothers obviously as soon as the futures launched it was up twenty six percent that day that was down that it was up so they were no less they they werent able to do what everybody in the Financial Media like c n. B. C. Had said that. You know these these smart money involved in futures would eat. You know all those bitcoin investors alive i said that would not happen you did say that would not happen i even though i am well experienced in all things financial and i made a whole career on wall street training futures and options i knew that this would not be the case. Anyway the black hole concept is one where this is good money according to therese law if you wanna look at economics its pushing out the bad money you know somebody asked me this morning what does big coin backed by you know that question is all it always comes up whats it back you know my simple answer is backed by all the money thats coming into it you know its sucking in all the dollars yen drachmas un euros its all being ruined then its all being pulled into in a stock going to leave you know once it goes into big going encrypt out if youre swapping garbage money for good money so youre not going to go back to garbage money so its backed by all that money is backed by now when at the time people are saying well you know gold is a seven trillion dollar market and its a bad comparison to just compare the price because bitcoin at that time was only worth you know hundred billion dollars and gold is what seven trillion dollars will sense that was a statement was first made the whole Crypto Market now is worth over half a trillion dollars its on its way to be worth a trillion dollars its going to be worth seven trillion dollars going to be worth more than seven trillion dollars big corn is soft to be worth a trillion dollars so all the free up money in the world all the fractional reserve banking over leveraged garbage weve been warning about in a two thousand and three we said yeah gold is a place to hide from the. Apocalypse but then because it came around and starting in two thousand and eleven we said you know this is actually the way its going to happen this is the financial black hole thats going to suck in all the all the money and its happening you know quite rapidly and so hes right to say that the gold is the first of the major commodity slash currencies to be disrupted by bitcoin but after gold well see other major fianna currencies collapse implode well you remember Alan Greenspan who was a gold bug and then became head of the central bank of america well he had said that. Gold the u. K. Was stupid to give up their gold because in extremis the gold is always used just like what happened to germany during World War Two but this is something were seeing that bitcoin is becoming that because the gold is kind of linked to the u. S. Controlled Financial System so look at whats going on with that case of turkey versus around and they were using gold because iran was allowed to use dollars but now ive seen more and more weve seen venezuela announced the petro partly if not mostly to circumvent sanctions. I saw an advisor to Vladimir Putin being quoted recently that he thought could be a good way to circumvent sanctions as well so their original design for bitcoin was also in order to circumvent the Financial System where so much fraud and opaque happens behind an opaque wall of drea all sorts of derivatives and fraud and then they get bailed out by the Central Banks remember that there was actually mention the Bank Bailouts in the u. K. In the run on Northern Rock so here this gold guy from daily reckoning and thats how you and i met over gold talking about gold and daily reckoning he says big queen trading is totally bonkers and it doesnt look like its going to come down any time soon it is morphed from an underground tech geek trade to the biggest market menial weve seen in decades big news is pushing stock market stories below the fold despite the markets incredible bull performance this year equities are starting to take a backseat to cryptocurrency and then theres gold big to ceilings golds thunder as the Holiday Season approaches doomsday preppers used to stock up on gold and canned goods now theyve cleaned all the gold out of their bug out bags and replaced it with bitcoin so that. Because i just mentioned that all these debates that is a store of value or Payment System doesnt matter people are piling in theyre getting rid of their gold in there theyre going long on big coin you know thats right i mean its turned out to be a fantastic store of value and its attracting trillions of dollars and the price will explode upwards two hundred thousand and beyond and then well start to level off theres a fantastic chart of somebody posted online about the gold versus the reich mark i guess was the german currency during hyperinflation why more republic days and gold want to trillions of dollars an ounce versus the right market. Right mark around it and the same thing is happening of bitcoin versus the u. S. Dollar where you could see big coin trade a Million Dollars a coin you know its not necessarily the price of bitcoin is moving so much as the the u. S. Dollar is experiencing a hyper inflationary collapse like a why more republican having a why more republic moment for planet earth well hyperinflation is a kind of a political thing you know they always say it like inflation and deflation are monetary events hyperinflation is a political event people lose faith and that system so i know there are some who say like you do you see the force of the u. S. Government or the Chinese Government or the abu dhabi government or you know any government going to come in and smash your head if you dont use their currency but if if the people have lost faith in their political and Financial System theres nothing you can do you cant beat them over the head enough you cannot the gulag archipelago show that you cant force people to believe in your your colt you know within a few years you know fifty sixty percent of the population will have a Million Dollars worth of crypto on on a private key on a you know a tres or a some other off line you know storage device and how you going to convince those people to comply with their stupid laws i dont say im going to be able to do was not just that you you couldnt. You can. Its not whether or not you can get them to comply with the law yeah well pay their taxes yeah they buy their obamacare yeah ill do that but can you get them to believe in janet yellen in the next fed chairman in the e. C. B. Can you ever get them to believe that that system is sound again can you get them to say ok thats going to be great it doesnt matter you can arrest them you can put them in jail you can fine and you can do all that stuff whether or not theyll ever believe you whether theyre now theyll be like hey happy with the system im going to go out and shell and im gonna think about the future and its all great now theyre not going to do that so here weve established that for some time in my block all its affected your cognitive abilities dont make the care of people laugh ok let me frank i can only so we said its a story about you its also the value of bitcoin is the actual network of ecosystem in the open public ledger its also attracted just like early Silicon Valley which didnt attract the best smartest most innovative people but the thinkers the sort of people who think about putting thats not the answer is no theyre not going to go back theyre not going back to joelle not going to back the Central Banks they will they wont go back to their confidence in the system is collapsing and there is no turning back this is the collapse of the nation state and the central bank and the fractional reserve money system big coing is to banks what the Printing Press was to the Catholic Church it collapsed it in many ways this is the end of this era this is the new beginning this is about everyone having autonomy and sovereignty with their own money that cant be confiscated then never is deflationary wral uganda and like i said the value of the network is also the fact that the smartest minds in the world are attracted to it and theyre all working on it and theyre coming up with solutions so. No matter how many how much fun you throw at it you could say all the things wrong with it as soon as you identify the things wrong with it or the flaws thats the thing of an open Source Network is people like oh the Evening Standard in the u. K. Ran a front page story recently that said that the government needs to warn people that if they lose their crypto currency there are no bailouts for them exactly exactly we dont want bailouts. Go dig a hole in the ground throw yourself in blow your brains out and cover up the hole thats what we think of you even standard George Osborne the british establishment lawyers are b. S. They just basically and barclays youre all frickin terrorists and should die. Ok weve got to go to break states unless you are coming your way. About your sudden passing i phone lee just learned you were a south and taken your last to turn. Your act caught up to you as we all knew it would i tell you im sorry. So i write these last words in hopes to put to rest these things that i never got off my chest. I remember when we first met my life turned on each. But then my feelings started to change you talked about more like it was again still some more fun to feel those that didnt like to question our arc and i secretly promised to never be like it said one does not leave the funeral in the same as one enters the mind its consumed with this one different speech because there are no other takers. Claimed that Mainstream Media has met its maker. Everybody im Stephen Baldwin got to ask hollywood guy youll suspect every proud american first of all im just george bush and our video to suggest this is my buddy max famous financial guru as well just a little bit different. Because there are no windows up with all the drama happening in our country im shooting the brood have fun meet everyday americans. And hopefully start to bridge the gap this is the great. Can pretty much. Everything. How does it feel to be a sheriff the greatest job in the world its as close to being a king as any job there is what Business Model helps to run a prison now we just do it on like i said nobody you know visitation i dont no one comes anymore we dont have to sarge them anymore its Cost Effective thats what they want to do that knowing they dont give a damn if you didnt charge or not theyre actually paying us to put it back into. The louisiana incarceration rate is twice as high as the us sam bridge what secret is behind such success. Is. Welcome back to the cars report imax guys are time now to turn to jim rickards prolific author and hes also the chief global strategist at merrill. Jim welcome back thank you max all right mary glom what is. The company i started with some partners a year ago we specialize in Predictive Analytics and Capital Markets its actually the continuation of project prophecy which i worked on at the cia pfizer privacy if you were down here in studio very close to the world former sort of the twin towers there was Insider Trading in advance of the nine eleven attack after the attack the cia said well it was going to be another spectacular attack would there be Insider Trading again could you identify it could you trace it to the source code if i swore id break down the door and stop the attack that was project prophecy i was one of the code managers on that and basically we developed a Predictive Analytics system inside the cia and it worked extremely well all thats happened now is taking that technology was some partners with some investors were now doing private version of that to do predict about loose Capital Markets however weve go well beyond what we did at the cia as you know technology is advanced science has advanced so weve really got third wave Artificial Intelligence and some other inputs to that to come up with a very robust system ok now remember poindexter was saying John Poindexter will jump points that oh gosh yeah yeah he came after nine eleven i think it was he came up with. Mark it was a call well there was to be a total information awareness the right project but they wanted a they wanted a futures market basically a Geopolitical Futures market so you could bet on whether the time Yasser Arafat was going to be assassinated is dire what the whole thing was modeled on my Hollywood Stock Exchange well you know that i dont Like Technology to not know is based on that technology i do know that this is sort of what they call the wisdom of crowds if you get enough people making enough that its. And i was there during marla better production than you know an analyst sitting in a cube about how now that the time when they launched it. There was a lot of pushback because they said hey you know theres a conflict there because terrorists can bet on the terror act and then they go out and commit the act and they cash in well that was one of the objections but specifically one of the contracts was with Yasser Arafat be assassinated the pushback came from then senator Hillary Clinton who new york senator at the time who course was a good friend of arafat so there were there was that was shut down but we were we were hearing that was actually darpa the defense. Project research arm but we were doing inside the cia as we did Research Dollars in this bill is a process that really you know Prediction Markets such as the years a Predictive Analytics are looking at the data and you are using algorithms and you are sorting through the data to try to pick up on patterns and and this is all internal its not out there people are not buying and selling protection contracts were not running production mark run appear to violence but the science is when we do on the theres a lot theres less there than we see out of the wisdom of crowds wisdom of crowds is really good if you want to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar the average of a thousand people would no matter how to go understand were actually be pretty good guess the weight of the car like an old english fare that stuff works good but the more complex the problem the less the wisdom of crowds works and for example even in markets where you have arbutus patient so lets go back to february twenty seventh two thousand and seventeen earlier this year the market was giving a thirty percent chance of a fed rate rate hike in march the fed actually did hike rates in march it got two hundred percent the day before the meeting but theres an example where the market was way off and the cicadas mean markets are invaluable but theres a lot more to we use. This that we use their complexity theory behavioral psychology history and other branches of science to come up with our forecasts ok so you say this is now across your work i believe it was in death of the dollar or the chapter one the death of money chad was on iraq. Ok not the nine eleven you were observing as well as your colleagues in the Intelligence Community activity in the Financial Markets that telegraphed that something was coming we were not observing it in real time it was there that information was there and i did run into people later who saw that the cia was not observing that at the time but after the fact you can look back it was very obvious the the it was done through a by a put option usually Insider Trading is done in the Options Market because theres a lot more leverage with the first place the f. C. C. Works by the way so that on two trading days before nine eleven buying puts American Airlines two hundred eighty six times the average believe im so sick i order a big mac every day and then when there were two hundred eighty six big macs you know somethings up i talked to John Martorano just after the after the fact if you looked at the data and he said oh my gosh some some of this knowledge was circulating ahead of the of a not just me and not just the agency but there were academics i talked to john the one who was the special jumbo hearns. New york Stock Exchange specialist for made markets and american you know he was the market maker in those two studies are going to say ive never seen more blatant Insider Trading when a Space Shuttle or a special challenger blew up more if i call the contractor for the booster rocket puts in this case skyrocket it sure does the thing just blew up here you are observing the event as if something a blown up before it blew up in the post event youre looking back i seen that man and so now. Markets are very sensitive to this data and how much of the Predictive Analytics that you are incorporating in this service is taken from market data well we start with market data and thats the many many example by the way you have to separate sort of predict about linux on the one hand and like Law Enforcement looking for inside of traders and all that but this is sort of trading all the time in the head of you know i mean a announcements thats quite common you can always see that you can see it before the fact definitely see the. After the fact but we see in that we see market data but were also using complexity theory which says that in any system the scale of the system scaling metrics are very important in the density function the interconnectedness thats a leading indicator of potential collapse or you know they understand whats the ratio between market data and on market data roughly well its hard to say it depends on the particular no see we take all this so we use behavioral psychology thats just thats very well established here is to expire says you know people would rather take three you know three dollars as a sure thing instead of three dollars twenty cents expected value if theres a twenty percent chance of loss and your risk aversion anchoring always pay robust has been very well known you can incorporate that we use history a lot of the what wall street does these correlations are regressions there are a lot of limitations on that number one youll never see the weird avail never see a recession and never see a socalled black swan you never see a catastrophic event youll never see that the correlations you always predict more the same you get random outcomes which is not true things are pet dependent number one they were two time series are often too short like one hundred five hundred or even use fifteen hundred year time series go back to the collapse of bronze a civilization the collapse of the roman empire you know were about to for another civilizational collapse you dont predict that tomorrow morning but theres the kind of time series that are more meaningful my view so we use history we use bayes rule which is a statistical method that involves just starting with a hypothesis using the best idea you can that we use that Intelligence Committee all the time that was used to that movie imitation game where alan turing cracked the enigma code i was using those rules where we use all that but the thing is you have to take all of that and combine it what we call a fuzzy Cognitive Network just a Neural Network with nodes each node might represent a different one of the disciplines i mentioned one might be in a storage room that has some weight because something happen before one might be a basie and nobody gains weight or loses weight based on updating now you have to feed those notes to do that weve teamed with i. B. M. The idea lavin Watson Watson can read you know two hundred. And twitter feeds simultaneously i might look at ten but you know the two hundred million so plain language ability in eight languages so now we really go way beyond this is really a three way of Artificial Intelligence as i described ok so as always in these situations you have a problem i guess you could call it of slippage. In for example our bit arbitrage opportunities open up in the market sure and then everyone jumps in on those arbitrage opportunities you know by the spread between t. Bills and one market versus another market in the arbs come in and it shrinks down to zero in this type of work and i know having and created the Hollywood Stock Exchange and invented the predicting Prediction Market industry thank you. Have a problem and this happens in markets all the time where you are the intelligence that you think you are gleaning as far as a predictive intelligence starts to get discounted by the fact that youre looking at the intelligence level of the heisenberg effect if you actually start to see it start to disappear. Phenomenon and it doesnt mitigate the risk of a black swan these black swans are there because they are black swans do you feel comfortable that your work to what degree is a lets say a leap forward in generating do you know yet if you have a track record on the side what was the worst whats the status of what we do we do which are first of all we predicted that we said the u. K. Would vote to leave the European Union that was a completely out of consensus view we predicted trump selection i was on Television Australia new york europe before the election saying trump was going to win so we actually we predicted a fed rate hike in less march a time when the market was giving a thirty percent probability which is true from december to late february we were an eighty percent probability now the market caught up in the last two weeks is there a problem with we have a good data apartheid and what i mean is youve got access to the data youre making predictions you can cash in on those predictions not that thats your point and the reason youre doing it we dont trade when. You know of an. All bald heads funds to pay big money to the Intelligence Committee theyve got cia guys on their payroll so suddenly they access the data gives them an edge now theyre profiting from this data and the average joe on the street is not profiting from this data whats your thought about well first of all youre absolutely right about that and this one things i said when i when i got to the cia were talking about this is this was all new the cia had done this one guy they put in charge of this because he traded options like in his spare time he was a math whiz and then just trade off his first person account these are really the only guy in the agency do this if youre in charge they didnt have Capital Markets expertise Capital Markets were not part of the battle space prior to nine eleven they are now but they were at the time so when i give the cia a lot of credit they know what they dont know and theyre very good outreach and i was not the only one recruiter there were many who were invited into this project so we kind of built from the ground up but one of things i said i said guys hedge funds do this all the time were not trying to do anything the hedge funds dont already do were just doing it for Different Reasons were not trying to spot Insider Trading having them in a announcement were trying to spot Insider Trading have a terrorist attack but the way you do it the math and the data inputs are the same number one number two source data piece theyre not cheap but you know for twenty five thousand dollars you can get real time prices from Chicago Mercantile Exchange new york Stock Exchange all that information is available but never the algorithms at all it appears science an answer you have to know the legions of these guys youve got to know that i know theyre expensive they are expensive you have to build it yourself so there is there is a little bit of that but this is its not a given example you can rent sellers for seles in space or private you can rent a space you can rent the use of them there are people they fall in Cracker Barrel nobody walks to a Cracker Barrel theyre all by the highways they drive to a cracker vine oh yes they were using the satellites to spot how many cars were in the parking lot they have some data on the average cell per car average number of people per car and they use that to predicting as a cracker bro and thats thats completely legal its inside information but its few there to put to be guilty of trading in sanford mentions a two part test. Espied material nonpublic information but you also have to be quite in breach of the fiduciary duty if you do it yourself you have been breached in the duty its your information you cant steal from yourself so thats completely legal Insider Trading right on wall street was to say its inside not inside well in for no one likes the word insider but the fact is if you if you invent it yourself youre not stealing it so its legal but you have to do those funds have an edge over every day of us of course they do and thats thats thats just the way it was usually and didnt get past the first question. Keep you over for a segment thats ok thats right. And thats going to do it for this edition of the kaiser report with me max kaiser and Stacy Herbert like to thank our guest jim rickards prolific author and data guy if you want to reach us on twitter its kaiser report and so next time. You know the palestinians have used the United Nations as a weapon of war against the future of peace both for palestinians and israelis and the United NationsGeneral Assembly has passed more resolutions against the Democratic State of israel that it has against north korea and iran and syria combined so that you know it is a bubbling cauldron of hatred and anti democracy. Its all to see we have a great team we need to strengthen before the free float world cold and have been a legend to keep it to the back. In one thousand nine hundred two that must qualify for the european championships at the very last moment no one believed in us but we won and im hoping to bring some of that waiting spirit to the r. C. C. Recently ive had a lot of practice so i can guarantee you that Peter Schmeichel will be on the best form since my last will come from that steroids or three. Thousand zero zero zero zero zero i call russia. Strikes. Left left left more or less ok stuff thats really good. Across europe municipalities are taking their water supply back from private companies to me to keep out the cells with simple song alone even some company against elsewhere they invite private companies to take over the utilities anybody tell us that all posts allowed for mr guys who got on the plane might be cool just by been pieces of us to quote them now to put it over or over some more you know i dont believe the left bill brought up locals are ready to stand up for the basic human rights. The access to water is about water but its also over much more than more its about the hurt and the redistribution of. Debt downwards if you want or what. Elections draw to a Close Encounter loney with the preliminary results expected in the next few minutes the Spanish Government ordered the vote following the regions independence referendum in october it will show whether catalan still support the move live pictures here from the region. In other news the us suffers another blow for its recognition of jerusalem as the capital of israel is the un General Assembly overwhelmingly condemns the me. The use of the deed to obstruct the Security Council shameful that defeating even taking place blatant violation of the rights of Palestinian People america will put our embassy injuries front this is bullying and john but it will not walk good out. In the vote over