3/24/2023 – Michigan 11, Colgate 1 – 25-11-3 3/26/2023 – Michigan 2, Penn State 1 (OT) – 26-11-3, Frozen Four When I'm planning to do a game column for a given game, I spend my time watching it unfold while searching for predominant storylines. Narratives, overarching themes, something that links the action together. As a game shifts, that storyline may shift as well and so it's not uncommon to have multiple different themes/headlines circulating through my head over the course of the game. You have an idea of what you want to write about, then something new comes along and boots it from the spotlight. On Sunday I had a couple different themes in my head during the Michigan/Penn State Regional Final. As Michigan peppered Liam Souliere with shots, hitting the post multiple times and dictating play, I figured an ice-breaker goal was inevitable and the plan was to talk about how the Wolverines just kept coming at Penn State until they finally cashed it in. Then Penn State took the lead and as the third period ticked along with the Lions leading 1-0, my focus shifted towards centering the narrative section of this column on how the NCAA Tournament's randomness and cruelty were going to strike again. I planned to write about how the better team, both over the course of the season and in that very game, was going to be eliminated because the NCAA sets up a profoundly stupid tournament with the goal of making sure lesser teams are on even footing with the great teams. Then Michigan tied it. And then the game went into overtime. At this point I didn't know quite what to expect, other than to of course prepare for the worst outcome. There was no central theme in my head and I didn't get a chance to establish one in the 52 seconds before Mackie Samoskevich ripped a shot by Liam Souliere to clinch it for the Wolverines. The thrill of victory lit up Michigan Twitter and other social media spheres and after the high began to recede, I sat there wondering where exactly to go with it. There wasn't one obvious, cohesive story to tell about this game but then it dawned on me that the two storylines I was stewing over earlier in the evening was the story. It was a fusion of the two, that Michigan did keep at Penn State and eventually got the big goal... it just came after 22 minutes of staring down the barrel of a shotgun called randomness that defines this most cursed tournament in all of sports. Sometimes you have to be faced with pain to achieve glory. And sometimes it takes a show of resilience to get it done. ----- [David Wilcomes] The story of Sunday's Regional Final is that Michigan was the better team. They managed to outshoot and out-attempt Penn State, both at 5v5 and in all situations, which, if you read my preview or are familiar with PSU Hockey, is an achievement. If you're out-attempting PSU Hockey, you're whipping them, to put it frank. Now shot attempts are not everything- NHL analytics types have moved steadily away from using Corsi to analyze games and predict future outcomes in recent years, favoring expected goals and other more advanced metrics (high danger chances/scoring chances). But in the under-funded and under-analyzed sport of college hockey, we peasants who rely on the public data only have access to Corsi. Thankfully, there is a public expected goals reading and it's called the eye test. Watching the game reveals that not just did Michigan outshoot and out-attempt Penn State, they definitely owned the expected goals battle. The quality of chances and the volume of those chances was far superior for Michigan relative to Penn State. Another metric: the highlight footage. YouTube saint Matthew Loves Ball uploaded a 12 minute highlight package for this game and there is a single PSU offensive highlight in the first period to roughly five for Michigan. That's dominance. It continued into the second period, Michigan largely controlling play and PSU attacking off the counter. The Wolverines got the first two power plays as well, with Adam Fantilli hitting the post on their second PP, the second time Michigan had hit the iron after Ethan Edwards was sure he had scored back in the first period. The Maize & Blue felt snakebitten at this point, firing shot after shot, many of them good looks, at a largely mediocre goalie who had decided to put on his Patrick Roy mask for that evening. And when they did get it by him, it was finding the iron or squibbing loose into the crease, only to be cleared by the defense. [AFTER THE JUMP: More narrative]