A “flood” of foreign cash will chase yuan-denominated assets in 2021 because they’ll offer far better yield than the rest of the world, according to Liu Li-gang, chief China economist at Citigroup Inc. He predicts the currency could rally 10% to 6 per dollar — or even more — by the end of next year. The yuan hasn’t been that strong since late 1993, just before China’s unification of official and market exchange rates triggered a plunge in the currency.
The yuan has been on a tear since late May, surging to a more than two-year high as data showed that China’s economy was rebounding from the virus pandemic. Overseas funds have increased their holdings of onshore bonds and stocks by more than 30% this year to records, official data showed, prompted by index inclusions and the country’s wide interest-rate premium over other markets. To slow the advance, Beijing has made it cheaper for traders to bet against the yuan and has relaxed capital curbs to allow more outflows. But those measures have done little to dampen optimism.