Put Away Your Crystal Ball and Adapt as Market Conditions Change

Put Away Your Crystal Ball and Adapt as Market Conditions Change
January 20, 2021
Volumes have and will be written about the unique events of 2020.  It would be a dramatic understatement to acknowledge that none of us saw how the year would unfold.  This should provide healthy doses of humility and caution as we read the abundant financial market forecasts for 2021.
Our conclusion is not that homework, analysis, and preparation do not matter—interpretation of information matters now more than ever!  Instead, the problem lies in the tendency to apply a tight grip on predictions from a specific point in time rather than adapting to new information, data, and conditions.  In many cases, what we think should happen does not materialize.  Investment success requires careful analysis, a repeatable process, and the flexibility to change a seemingly sound investment thesis as events unfold.

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