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The imf and the world bank, of course uh, in terms of the impact on the Global Economy, this really gaza onslot is at the core of it, the red sea militarization obviously is another concern in terms of the impact thats going to have on the World Economy, how much of one is what were going to be looking at, also uh the assessment by the world bank in terms of uh crises, ukraine is one of them, the gaza onslot another was happening at the red sea also, its the lowest world. Economic growth in the last 55 years and the common factor in all of this, the United States. Also, the spillover is a big concern, you have crisis like the exchanges between hisb and the Israeli Regime, and also when you take a look at how syria, iran and yemen are involved in that, where syria is bombed by israel and youre having tensions ratching it up by israel and the us against iran, and of course how yemen is being targeted, resistance groups targeting us interests. Another factor. Israels genocidal war on the Palestinian People in gaza has cost the lives of countless of civilians. The war and that related instability in the region has also had regional and international economic. Ramifications the International Monetary fund has lowered its estimates for the growth of middle eastern and north african economies during the current year. That is because of the ongoing azuly war on gaza and his repercussions in the southern red sea. It is estimated a 2. 9 growth for the arab region in 2024. This is 0. 5 lower than previously reported in october, projections stood at 3. 4 . Dont slot broke out when Economic Growth was already slowing in the region while high levels of debt and unresolved inflation continued to post significant problems in many economies. Furthermore, the wars knockon effects could impact the world, the longer the fighting drags on. Theres not a risk of spillover in the sewis canal, that is because yemeny Resistance Forces have attacked israeli and israeli bound ships in the red sea. The volume of commercial traffic passing through the sewis canal at fallen more than 40 in the previous 2 months. What is complicated the situation is the fact that countries like the us and uk have militarized the red sea region in support for israel. Its time not to take a look at some of the social media posts. First up, a website overlapping crisis, add urgency for imf, world bank resources, in which it goes to say that there are reforms that also need to take place, Global Financial leaders. Sent them a clear message on what is needed to tackle overlapping crises, vast amounts of additional money, thats the answer. Next, looking at causes, measuring effects of israel hamas war, as they call it, we call it an onslot. Experts examine shifts and geopolitics, Global Economy resulting from conflict, the hoouti attacks, which first targeted israely connected ships and then expanded to include assets from the us and europe are expected to increase if israels invasion of r in gaza goes forward, next mid east growth to slow in 2024 due to oil cuts and the impact of the gaza war. The imf revised its gdp growth forecast with middle east and north africa down to 2. 9 this year, lagging below october projections due in part to shortterm Oil Production cuts and the conflict in gaza. It added economies neighboring israel and the palestinian territories saw the conflict weighing tourism revenues, red sea attacks weighed on freight costs globally, and finally hoothies could cut under sea Global Internet cables, the minister has warned, it said even partial damage to the undersea cables could eliminate internet. Access across vast areas, causing Major Economic disruptions for entire countries. Under sea cables connect, not only yemen, but entire continents. Thats something to watch out for if this onslot continues. All right, let me introduce our guests for the first segment of our q a. Joining us uh first is uh brano altman, hes a journalist, founder of opera mundi and author of against zionism, portrait of a colonial and racist doctrine. Bren altman, welcome to. The program uh the imf and the world bank have issued this warning, which is our uh focus with you, that this uh onslot and also the red sea attacks uh is going to imperil the Global Economy, how true true do you think that is, um, and in particular when you take a look at what the us and uk are doing in the red sea militarizing that region, it has attacked yemen, uh, dont you think that uh thats going to worsen the uh pretty dire situation, especially when it comes to the World Economy . Well, basically because there is a strategic issue at stake, the defense of the state of israel as the main imperialist system bridge had in the middle east, thats the point. This position must be understood in a context in which is deepening the crisis of the world order created in 1991. With the victory of the United States in the cold war and the disappearance of the soviet union. The zionist regime became increasingly important ally for the north north american strategy in the region given the strengthing of china russia coalition. All right, let me bring in our next guest ramon garcia fernandez. Hes an economist, professor at the universitat federal the abc, ufabc, joins us. Welcome to economic divide, the World Bank President has made a statement, i like to get your reaction on, who has said, whats going on in gaza, also the challenges of equane and then the red sea are among the top challenges, the top, he said challenges uh for the uh Global Economic outlook, which has contributed to the lowest growth of the last 55 years, thats uh pretty heavy, and whats interesting about this is that both conflicts or these conflicts involve the us to a large degree, so. Doesnt that make the us actually the biggest threat to the Global Economy . Well, they actually the us being involved in these two two wars actually represent a big threat. However, i think that the biggest problem for the World Economy are the kind of policies defended speecial. By the imf that provoke that defending the austerity and defending the interests of the creditors above the interest of the debitors, so its more kind of a structural problem, but if you, but i think i agree with you that in this special moment, not as structural problem, in this special moment, the involvement of the us, both in ukraine. And in the gaza wars turned in one of the biggest threats for the weather. Its time now for the inf news section of the program. First off, we look at tech layoffs that are happening in the United States. Its quite unbelievable that they still are. Meta ceo has said more recent layoffs are because companies are realizing that becoming leaner. Make them more efficient, number of ceos at companies such as amazon have mentioned plans to restructure the company and invest in areas with ai, artificial intelligence, but mark zuckerberg, ceo of ameta has said that he didnt think that ai was a big part of the equation. Its a kind of news that you have to watch out for, because just what they say may be the opposite, so well be looking out for this story and see how it develops. Next up, taking a look at the bricks grouping of countries set to overtake the g7. Uh the headline as it read said bricks will overtake the g7 and economic might by the year 2028. The group will account for 40 of global gdp within four years, thats according to the head of the new development bank. All right, well have to wait and see, maybe itll happen before that. Uh, now uh, something that the uk has been um kind of uh uh grappling with, and it has happened now, and thats a recession is for certain, it has slipped into a recession, the economy registered two consecutive quarters of contraction. For the whole of 2023, uh the economy increased by only 0. 1 with high inflation, the single biggest barrier to growth. And our final look is at the us debt. We have covered this so often. But you know when it hits a record its quite staggering, its topp 54 trillion dollars, the aging of the population in the us and the growth and federal healthcare costs kind of go together, dont they . Per beneficiary has increased mandatory spending. Those were the topics we picked for our interview section. Any ideas that you have from wherever you are with economic flavor, do send them to us. Contact information is coming up. It seems the Israeli Occupation will conclude the grand operation in the city of khan unis in Southern Gaza within days withdrawing thereafter to the newly established security zone along the border with gaza just as it did weeks ago in the city of gaza and its surroundings to the north. Does this mean that the next step is to begin the ground operation in rafah . It. That the decision regarding the operation is still pending, not only for field related reasons, but lot of regional players prefer the negotiating path to end designest aggression against gaza, hence all eyes are now a possible improved Prisoner Exchange deal, both in form and content, compared to the first paris formula reached between qatar, egypt, the United States and the zianist israeli entity last january. Gaza talks underway this week on the media stream. Section of the Program Since imf and world bank have stated that the israel us genocidal war will impact the World Economy. Were going to take a look at the Economic Indicators that show whether this has happened or not. First up, this is what the downgrade amount is based on the world bank. Taking look at uh the graph over here. The Global Growth is projected to slow from what we had. In 2023 2. 6 and uh its going to go down to roughly about 2. 4 based on uh what were looking at for this year 2. 4 for 2024. Now in terms of what that means, well that is the slowest half decade of gdp growth in 30 years. It should be pointed out that this is the third year in a row that this slowdown has occurred. All right uh another indication coming from the monetary International Monetary fund uh in terms of the aggression and the. That is has in particular in west asia and in north africa. This is what were looking at in terms of the developed economies 3. 9 is the effect that this has had, and then when you take a look at the whats called low Income Countries uh for lack of better way of describing it, that has amounted to 5. 5 weaker than previously expected. Now by the end of 2024, people in about one out of every four developing countries and about 40 of low Income Countries. Will still be poor than they were uh during the covid19 pandemic that occurred back in 2019, that kind of puts uh things into perspective. Next up, the imf and the world bank uh, well they have expressed real concern about the spread of this uh aggression in terms of how its going to threaten the Global Financial security, well in terms of the suis canal is where were uh taking a look at here, look at that, the traffic decrease um has now um amounted to about 40 uh compared to the previous two months, so thats a large impact that this has had on the suis canal, and if this, which is one of the another major Transit Route aside from the baba mandap straight has that much of a decrease, imagine what is doing uh to the impact its having on products uh and the containers in other parts of the world that they have to travel through. And finally, the spread of the aggression has become a real source of concern on multiple fronts uh, but specifically when we take a look at uh how the region itself, the west asia region is experiencing different types of crises, look at lebanon, cross border strikes between hisbollah and israel, of course the gaza strip, the us is really genocidal war, syria and iraq, iran struck israely spy bases and Northern Iraq and daesh targets in syria uh earlier, and the red sea, the yemeni army targeting us and uk and israely bound vessels and uh yemen itself, the us and the uk have targeted yemini army positions, so you can see multiple crises that are covering this uh west asia region and these are just some of them uh where you can uh bet that this this is going to have an impact when it comes to the economies of the respective countries that consist this region so obviously uh thats something to watch out for as uh this aggression continues and with no signs of it slowing down at least at this point let me uh bring our guests back to see what they think about this uh rejoining us is uh brano altman hes a a journalist founder at opera mundy, hes also the author of against zionism, portrait of a colonial and racist doctrine. Ben altman, welcome back to economic divide. So, the israel gaza war, the threats of a spillover are is evidence, we just covered that. The map of which we are seeing different crisis points, especially like hezbollah and israel engaging uh almost a daily basis. What are we looking at when it comes to uh the way that these crises may spiral out of control um to maybe and hopefully not, but go into a fullfledged war. What kind of Economic Impact is this aggression having in the west asia region in particular . The conflict regionalization. Appears to be paramount for the state of israel, first of all, the zionist regimes attacks against libenon and syria demonstrate a policy of expanding military tension precisely so that the military involvement of the United States becomes increasingly greater as we have seen in the continuous aggressions against iran and its allies or dehousis in yemen. This environment. And positive for large corporations in the military industry is pushing all the Economic Activities towards decline and strongly affecting world prices, several countries are heading towards a scenario of recession and inflation. Okay, great, lets bring now ramon fernandez, economics and a professor at university, universit federal uh. Do abc, uf abc um, ramon fernandez, welcome back, uh, id like to ask you about the warnings from the imf and the world bank in terms of the depth of how this aggression uh, the genocidal war, and the impact that its having where they say it will emperol the Global Economy, how true you think that is, and how deep uh, will that happen if you agree with that, um, and if thats the case, why is it. When you take a look at the red sea region, the us and the uk are pursuing this militarization, given the fact that this does impact the World Economy, which they also bear the brunts of it. I think that the United States are dont specially concerned with the way the World Economy works, i think that they priorize their own interests and if it conflates with the situation of the world. The economy they would put the us first, so if you, for example, last year, the us economy has grown above the World Economy and still and even it has grown above their own growth in 2022, so for the United States, this kind of problems dont constitute a real problem for their economy. Okay, there are concerns that the onslot may spill over to other parts of the region. The Israeli Regime has repeatedly bombed syria and lebanon as resistance groups have pleged to support the people of palestine. The extent of the impact on the region remains highly uncertain and will depend on the conflicts duration, intensity and spread. The largescale conflict would constitute a Major Economic challenge for the region. Neighboring countries of egypt, jordan and lebanon are already enduring economic reverberations, and with concerns about the threat of escalation, visitors have been canceling travel to the region, hitting hard at the very lifeline of these economies. Tourism, which accounted for 35 percent to almost 50 of goods and Services Exports in these economies in 2019 is a critical source of Foreign Exchange and employment. Tourism dependent economies like lebanon where Hotel Occupancy rates fell by 45 entage points in october compared to year ago will see knock on effects for growth. Uncertainty about the trajectory of the conflict is evoding Consumer Confidence which could drive drop in spending and investments. Absent a lasting ceasefire, and even if the conflict remains contained, uncertainty could impact the broader. Asia and north africa region, growth could deteriorate if hesitancy begins weighing on investment decisions. Hello, welcome to the quick take a section. Is on assignments the yemini armys actions in the red sea in solidarity with the palestinians is paying off. The latest shows that there has been a 700 rise in fight. Rates increasing insurance cost and travel time at the same time, container storage is also becoming cute, europe frate that was 400 to 600 per container before the onslot has now rocketed to around 4,000 to 6,000. 70 to 80 of exports in Home Textiles have been impacted. When these supply chains become disrupted, as was witnessed during the covid19 pandemic, there is one outcome as a result, and that is increase in inflation. Well, the International Monetary fund shows that a doubling of Global Shipping costs can raise global inflation by 0. 7 over the next 12 months with the effect building gradually. The products that are impacted by this varies just like it did during the coronavirus pandemic, in terms of goods most at risk from asia to europe, consumer products, apparel, furniture and Household Appliances could experience the greatest disruptions. The additional cost by higher shipping costs lead importers to raise their prices and in turn pass these higher prices into domestic consumers. One of the goals of the yemini army was to exert this pain on the Israeli Regime, but this is being undermined by the very countries that are supposed to, well as should be stand up for their fellow palestinian brothers, turns out that many arab speaking countries that have actually increased their exports of the Israeli Regime have backstap palestinians in this regard. Why . Because this is happening as israel is committing war crimes in the gaza strip and have launched daily assaults on the occupied west bank. And a few of these countries, like the uae, saudi arabia and jordan, are assisting israel imports through land routs crossing from their country to occupied palestine due to the crisis in the red. Region, that does for this quick take section, if you have any questions or comments, do send them to us, Contact Information is coming up. With israel regime not willing to compromise and for its not willing to reach a trust deal with hamas, this us is really genocidal war peers set to continue for some time. The us once again has showed its true colors by warning to veto any resolution at the un, which can only mean that it is willing to take the risks associated with trade, disruptions and Global Economic downturns due to this onslot. That does for this edition of the program. Hopefully you liked it uh, wed like to hear from you and uh find out how were doing. Do send us uh uh your comments or drop us a line, Contact Information is behind me. For me and the team here at economic divide, its goodbye until the next program. We must not become part of south africas problem. We must remain part of their solution. We must not aim to impose. Ourselves, our solutions, our favorites in south africa, damn it, we have favorites in south africa, the favorites in south africa are the people who are being repressed by that ugly white regime, we have favorites. I also want to say a word about the situation in israel, the more we learned about the attack, the more horrifying it becomes. More than 1ous, 1, innocent lives lost including at least 27 americans. These guys make uh the they make alqaeda look pure, theyre pure, theyre pure evil, i said from the beginning, the United States make no mistake about it, stands with israel, United States stands with israel. Kamas says there are still big gaps that need to be bridged for sessfire in gaza as israels pressing ahead with deadly strikes on the missige strip. Lebanan sas well of fighters conduct a rocket attack on an Israeli Military base just today after they successfully drown and pretty drone. Iran is preparing for legislative and assembly of experts elections that will be held simultaneously on friday

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