In the US the Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, hence rates were kept at 5.25-5.50%. Powell signalled optimism on inflation but pushed back on expectations for a March cut. We stick to our call for a first cut in March followed by gradual quarterly reductions thereafter, as we think the approach still fits well with the Fed's risk management stance. Market prices in around 35% probability for the March cut. For more details, see Research US - Fed review: In a risk management mode, 31 January. On the data front, labour costs increased less than expected by 0.9% in Q4 against 1.2% in Q3. This is still on the high side for the Fed. However, it is a dovish signal since it is trending downward more than expected. The ADP report signalled signs of cooling labour market. It came in at 107K, much lower than the expected 145K and the December print was revised downwards.