Chart of the Day
Mixed May, Historically Weak June Ahead
MrTopStep has a trading rule that says ‘The S&P never does what most people want it to do when they want it to do’ and that was how the first part of Friday’s trade started. After a big rip on the close Thursday, the ES traded up to 4217.50 on Globex Thursday night, pulled back and retested the high at 4217.25 at 7:03 am and opened Friday’s regular session at 4212.57. After the open, the ES traded up to 4214.00 and at 10:27 traded down to the low of the day at 4202.50. The ES slowly ground higher and traded up to 4215.50 around 12:45 and then traded back down to 4207.50 going into 2:30. The only thing that stood out was the total lack of volume, at 2:45 ET only 525,000 ESM21 traded. For the next 45 minutes, the ES traded in a 4-point range. The ES traded 4211 on the 3:50 reveal as the imbalance flipped from buy $90 million to sell $1.6 billion and at 3:59:59 the ES dropped 10 points down to 4201.00. On the 4:00 cash close, the ES traded 4204 and settled at 4204 on the 4:15 futures close, down 7.25 points or -0.17% on the day. The Nasdaq futures (NQM21:CME) settled at 13,693.00, up 0.25 points on the day. In terms of the SP’s overall tone, it traded weakly and looked like it was part of the end-of-the-month rebalance. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was low at 980,000.