NH Primary Source: Sununu keep them guessing as he considers political future
Stephen being asked to run for 1st District US House seat – and he’s not ruling it out
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Updated: 4:30 AM EDT May 27, 2021
NH Primary Source: Sununu keep them guessing as he considers political future
Stephen being asked to run for 1st District US House seat – and he’s not ruling it out
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Updated: 4:30 AM EDT May 27, 2021
WHAT IF? What if Gov. Chris Sununu gets up tomorrow morning and decides to announce that yes, he’s running for the U.S. Senate next year?What if he announces a fourth run for governor, or decides to step away from politics, at least for a while?The ramification of any of those scenarios will shake up the political landscape in the Granite State and beyond.Sununu is acting as though he’s very interested in taking on U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan next year. He has been recruited and courted by top national Republicans, including Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Rick Scott. He's entertained those efforts.Scott made another remote call to New Hampshire Republicans on Tuesday night, by the way, as the special guest on a Facebook Live as the NRSC continues to focus on New Hampshire in the midterm election and Scott toys with the possibility of a 2024 presidential run.The NRSC and other pro-Republican groups have been hammering Hassan on a variety of issues, portraying her as far left and out of touch with her home state.Democrats say Hassan should not be underestimated – noting that entering her statewide runs for office in 2012 and 2016, she was not expected to win, but did. (She was the clear favorite for a second term as governor in 2014 from the beginning.)Democrats, realizing that Sununu has a job approval rating in the 70 percent range -- including nearly 80 percent among self-described independents -- are working tirelessly to try to bring his approval ratings down to earth.Sununu appears to be enjoying the guessing game – and the national attention. He is talking like someone who’s looking to shake up Washington. His criticisms of the Biden administration are picking up in frequency.This week, he’s been attending the Republican Governors Association meeting in Nashville, Tennessee and last night appeared on Fox News with conservative host/commentator Sean Hannity (who twice called him "Senator") and several other GOP governors. Biden bashing was front and center during the program.“He is smartly playing this by commenting on federal issues,” said Michael Dennehy, who has worked with GOP candidates for statewide office dating back 30 years and for the late Sen. John McCain’s 2000 and 2008 presidential runs.“He is expanding his cable television appearances. And he is certainly commenting on Joe Biden and the Biden administration. And so, he is looking like he is a potential U.S. Senate candidate. He is the most watched politician in New Hampshire” – and among the most watched politicians in the nation, Dennehy said.Dennehy said he is not expecting an announcement one way or the other on a Senate run right away – although he qualifies that by saying that in "Sununu-world" conventional assumptions can be tossed aside.“If this were a typical election year, he would need to make an announcement at the end of June, after the legislative session,” Dennehy said. “But I believe he’ll have a longer period of time because Washington is already laying out the campaign and organizing raising the money for him.“He won’t need as much time as a typical first-time U.S. Senate candidate would. But I think he would need to make a decision and an announcement by September so he can start a campaign in the state and start traveling around the country to collect his money.”And then, there is the ripple effect. If Sununu doesn’t run for governor, who will?Potentially, there will no shortage on the Republican side.Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte has been raising her political profile for much of the past year but has not expressed one way or the other if she would run for governor if Sununu moves on. She is believed to be considering it strongly and has met with key Republicans around the state to talk about it.Prior to the November 2020 election, she was actively involved in helping Republicans raise money, which helped the party flip the New Hampshire House, by headlining a fundraiser and helping to secure an appearance at an event by potential 2024 presidential candidate and former Ambassador Nikki Haley.On Wednesday, Ayotte weighed into the Manchester mayoral race, endorsing conservative Victoria Sullivan, who is being challenged by former Alderman Rich Girard as she aims for a general election rematch against Mayor Joyce Craig. The city election is officially nonpartisan with the top two finishers in a Sept. 21 primary moving on to compete in the Nov. 2 general election.Trump loyalists – and they remain a strong force in the New Hampshire GOP -- remember her opposition to then-candidate Donald Trump back in the 2016 election cycle, when she announced she would write in Vice President Mike Pence on the general election ballot. But others point to her work for the Trump administration in guiding U.S. Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch through the nomination process as a counter-balance.Commissioner of Education Frank Edleblut has stayed in his lane for the most part, focusing on his job and championing “education freedom accounts,” also known as vouchers. The program was added on Wednesday to the state budget by the Senate Finance Committee and prospects for passage are strong.But under the radar, sources say he has sent signals that he will be very interested in running for governor if Sununu doesn’t.“Frank Edelblut would be a very serious candidate,” as he was in 2016, when he finished a close second to Sununu in a five-candidate GOP gubernatorial primary, losing by just more than 1,000 votes, Dennehy said.“He went into the job as commissioner and threw himself into it and works hard at being the best commissioner he can be,” Dennehy said. “I’d say he would be viewed as the frontrunner in a Republican primary.Senate President Chuck Morse is known to have an interest in running for governor. His big fundraiser earlier this month raised about $200,000 and drew several hundred people. But Morse is also viewed as a potential candidate for the 1st District U.S. House seat if, as many expect, his home town of Salem is moved into NH-01 as a result of redistricting, which is controlled by the Republican majorities in the state House and Senate. Stephen for Congress?And a name from the past has resurfaced.Sources tell us Republicans are talking to former state Commissioner of Health and Human Services John Stephen about running for office again – and he is not dismissing the possibility by any means.These discussions are primarily focusing on a run for the 1st District U.S. House seat, which eluded Stephen in 2002 and 2008, before he ran in 2010 as the GOP gubernatorial nominee, losing to Democratic incumbent John Lynch.Stephen continues to prosper as the founder and managing partner of The Stephen Group, which he has built into a nationwide consulting firm that works with private and governmental entities on a variety of issues.But sources say he is kicking the proverbial tires on a congressional possible run, with a run for governor much more of a longshot than a congressional run, but not entirely off the table.The Democratic lineup?U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas has said publicly that he does not anticipate running for governor, but he has not ruled it out. The decision could come down to down to how deeply red the Republican redistricting plan ultimately renders his district.Democrats feel he can win a third term unless the district moves dramatically into the GOP column -- and it might. But they also feel that he can win a gubernatorial contest, too, if Sununu moves on.Pappas would likely not be seriously challenged in a primary if he runs for Congress again, and he is viewed as the strongest potential Democratic candidate out there to run for governor as well.If he does not run for governor, those being discussed as potential Democratic candidates include Senate Democratic Leader Donna Soucy, Sen. Tom Sherman and former Sens. Shannon Chandley and Melanie Levesque.And, of course, last year’s candidates, former Sen. Dan Feltes and former Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky, should not be entirely counted out.We'll have more on the Democratic scenarios in the coming weeks, but it all stems from Sununu.