May 27, 2021
This year’s draft lottery, set for June 22, is shaping up as one of the most consequential in recent memory. There’s a little more hanging in the balance than usual. Start with the quality prospects at the very top of the class and consider the various teams hoping to obtain or keep protected draft picks, and the usual intrigue that surrounds lottery night feels magnified. After the NBA conducted draft tiebreakers this week (and with the early-entry deadline a few days away), we’re inching closer to a concrete picture of what to expect on July 29.
Reprising an annual thought exercise—the first version of this column ran in May 2020, before the draft was delayed multiple months—I turned back to Tankathon.com’s trusty simulation tool to play around with potential lottery scenarios. We still have time to think about the possibilities, and this process often leads to useful takeaways about what to expect. For the sake of brevity, I’m not going to spend much time breaking down individual prospects here (see the most recent Big Board for that), but I will contextualize some potential decisions and team fits.