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Good evening from new york, im chris hayes, along with alex wagner. And we are both here, for msnbcs special coverage of yet another primary night in america. This one in the electorally crucial state of michigan. And as of right now at this moment, eight pm eastern, polls have closed in nearly all counties across that state, other than a few in michigans upper peninsula, which will close in an hour from now. So were going to start getting results coming in, basically any second throughout the next hour. And of course, if we have that, weve got have Steve Kornacki here at the big board, ready to break down the numbers, as we have them in realtime. Along with our team of excellent reporters in michigan, to also give us the latest from there. Both the republican and democratic primaries are going on today, and the contests are interesting for a number of reasons. Not for the usual reason, which is suspense about who will win. Neither race is actually expected to be all that competitive, to be honest. There is really little doubt that President Joe Biden and donald trump will be the respective winners. But tonight, we are looking for two different signals about the nature of their voting coalitions. On the trump side, one of the things that has now become clear after multiple contests, is that despite the fact of the xed president is essentially running as an incumbent, despite the fact that he is all but certain to clinch the republican nomination, there is still a significant portion of republican primary voters, maybe as much as 40 , who are motivated enough to go out and cast a vote for trumps opponent, nikki haley. As haley herself said just over the weekend in South Carolina, its not a majority, but its not a tiny group either. So what does that measurable opposition to trump mean for his Electoral Prospects . On the democratic side, we are seeing a different phenomenon play out. President bidens struggles in michigan are about policies, specifically his stalwart support of the continued israeli war in gaza, in response to hamass october 7th attack. That response from the Biden White House has created intense fractures within the Democratic Coalition, perhaps nowhere as much as in the state of michigan, which has among the highest populations of arab American Voters in the entire country. That fracturing of the party base has led to a campaign where democratic primary voters, dissatisfied and opposed to the white houses policy on israel and gaza, are organized to call on voters to vote uncommitted in the primary, rather than explicitly casting their vote for joe biden. It is meant as both a protest, and a warning if the white house should be for its organizers say, its too late. Now, no one expects uncommitted to win tonight. There is just a wide open question of what what its showing might mean about the strength of intensity of dissent within the party, surrounding the biden administrations continued support for this war. Lets start with Steve Kornacki, at the big board. Steve, weve got polls close to most of the state, what are you seeing, what are you looking for . And we are looking for a first result. As you mention, if it is only in four counties here dickinson, manen if you live there. First of all, you are lucky, because its beautiful up there. I was just saying. But second of all, you do have another hour to vote. Everywhere else in the u. P. , and in the Lower Peninsula, the polls are now close. And keep in mind, michigan is a heavy early voting, really mail voting, vote by mail state. About half 1 million early or mail ballots were cast in both the democratic and republican primaries, and under a new state law passed a couple of years ago, the counties could begin tabulating those absentee votes today. So one thing we are looking for, there are some mixed signals i think coming from the state here, about exactly how this is going to work. But certainly given that rule, and that law, it is possible that we can get big, big chunks of the vote reported out from some of these counties, like me, that would be the absentee vote. And they are also doing early votes for the first time far more taken advantage of the absentee mail voting, than the actual in person early voting. But, we are going to see if any of that comes in early. And of course some of those themes. On the republican side, look, haley has hit 43 in New Hampshire, and she had 40 in South Carolina. And the nature of her support, demographically, is very predictable right now, as is Donald Trumps in the republican primary. Haley is doing well with places with high concentration of voters with College Degrees, higher incomes, suburban areas. And, oh look at this, i will interrupt, because we got our first result. This is a major suburban higher income area. This is Oakland County. This is one of the biggest. And here is the initial batch of votes. Now this is about 9 of what we are expecting to come out of here, although that is a Turnout Estimate weve made from our own decision desk. That could change tonight, so we are seeing here about 15,000, a little bit less than 15,000 votes. And this is interesting. Donald trump, you see here, he is leading by about five and a half points over nikki haley. What i was just about to say is Oakland County is exactly one of those counties you would look for, if haley is going to be having a good night. Because Oakland County, detroit is right, here youve got the Eight Mile Road that separates it from its northern suburbs. And the two big norman are right here. Were you looking at one of, them oakland. And right to its east is county. Demographically, they are polar opposites. Macomb is the blue collar, Suburban County, sort of built by the uaw. And oakland is the more economically upscale suburb, a lot more College Degrees, a lot more economically affluent college graduates. Together, they are going to make up for about 20 of the it is maybe 25 , and you can see hailie, this vote, and we are not sure what its representative of, we want to see more comment. But if anything like this is happening in Oakland County, that is a pretty strong showing for nikki haley. Again, just going and staying pretty strong in the sense, not that thats up to contention, necessarily to win the state. But when you see that she got 43 in New Hampshire, that she got 40 in South Carolina, if she wants to be getting that number going north of, it this is one of the places that she needs to be competitive, and probably winning by the end of the night, if she wants to have that kind of a night. We could just show you in 2016, this is the last time there was competitive republican primary in michigan. Donald trump was running for the first time, he won that primary with 37 of the vote. You see, he did do well here, he didnt win Oakland County, a little bit off of this statewide total. But this is also one of the better counties for john kasich, who was kind of occupying that more moderate wing, appealing to a lot of those College Educated voters who have been against trump, who have been siding with nikki haley. So thats an interesting first report were getting out of oakland. And look at that, weve got more votes now coming in. Oakland county, the show is yours right now, keep the votes coming in. And you could see here, trump has actually built a bit of a bigger lead. So again, if it starts moving in trumps direction from that initial 40, 9 43, then haley is not in a position where she could be getting ella but you can see its early, weve already seen some movement with that number. So this is one we want to keep coming back to folks, because this is big, this is population density. Again, this is a very big barometer for how the night is going to go. Well, or poorly for nikki haley. The other place to be looking, and maybe some of them will light up in just a few minutes, in terms of a barometer for haleys strength, and trumps weakness, if there is any here tonight, will be in this area right around grand rapids. Thats where grand rapids is. That is also ottawa county, immediately to its west. And there are a couple of other counties, the five county region here, it is going to make up about 17 of the republican vote. And whats interesting is this region of the state, a lot of it is traditionally republican and conservative. But starting in 2016, this very strongly adverse to donald trump himself, even as he was winning big time in the statewide vote in 2016, he was doing terribly in this part of the state. Take a look at ottawa county, this is a big one. Michigan this year, trump only got 19 and a half percent. Here basically, half of the statewide total for grand rapids as. Third place for donald trump. Donald trump won 72 of michigans eight counties in 2016. But the five county zone around here that im talking about, he didnt win a single one of them, and he came in third in two of them. So this area here, if haley is going to be doing anything tonight, she needs not just to be winning it, she needs to be racking up big numbers in this part of the state. Because the other thing is, certainly we are giving the areas where haley could be strong tonight. We mentioned the blue collar suburb of detroit, famously thats the home of the reagan democrats way back when he won michigan in the 2016 general election, he flipped macomb to the republicans. So that should be a trump strength night. And basically, lets just draw a line here, north of saginaw. Youve got a lot of land area, including the u. P. This is only going to total about, all combined, about 15 of the republican vote tonight. But these are largely, with a couple of exceptions, these are largely rural counties, working class, filled with white voters who dont have College Degrees. And that has been trumps really strong core group. And in some of these counties, when trump first ran for president in 2016 against hillary clinton, they move 20, 30 points from their 2012 levels. A lot of these counties were blue, a lot of them voted for barack obama. They became red, deeply red, in the era of trump. They stayed there in 2020, so this is going to be a source of strength for him tonight, even if its not a huge share of the statewide vote. So Trump Country up here, potentially trump trouble country up here. And a tale of two counties, we want to be watching, in Oakland County, and then right next door in macomb county. But again, all we have right now a, so i should reset this two statewide. All we have right now is vote from oakland, a little bit more coming, and getting to about one fifth year. And this is starting, again, the movement now, we have seen a couple ticks of movement here. This kind of margin, for trump again, this should be a strong county for haley. And if you are using that New Hampshire and South Carolina performance, again, 43, 40 overall of the vote, this is starting to get on the low, and potentially for what we are hearing in oakland. But again, 18 , we will see what happens. Can we, lets go quickly just over to do we have democratic vote, we should have some democratic vote . We have in Oakland County, yes. And there you go, so now about a quarter of the vote in the democratic side here. We are expecting lower turnout in the democratic side than the republican side. And there it is, Oakland County picking up here, almost 9 of the vote for uncommitted, and thats the big question, as you are seeing, how is that going to do statewide. One thing to keep mine in the democratic side, thats not a huge deal in The Grand Scheme of things, but the delegate rules are different on the democratic side. Delegates are given out by congressional districts, and anybody, including uncommitted, which is not a person, but uncommitted, if it hits 15 in any congressional district, is going to start collecting convention delegates. So, thats one thing to keep in mind. Oakland county, its obviously significant on the democratic side. But i think the real test for uncommitted, is going to come just first of all in wayne county, that is obviously where detroit is, but it is also where the city of dearborns. Dearborn, a majority arab American City of about 110,000 people. It also has the largest concentration per capita of muslim americans, of any city in the United States. Deerbrook in wayne county. And then you go right next door, to county, this is a big college, this is where the University Of Michigan At Ann Arbor is. It is also where Eastern Michigan University is. And youve certainly seen that storyline of young voters, college age voters, especially in the democratic side, expressing strong displeasure with joe bidens handling of the israelhamas war. And, if that is going to turn into votes against biden, it of a protest nature. If you are not seeing it in county, it is probably not going to be a big thing anywhere. That is all super, super helpful. And we will keep looking at that, weve got 10 at uncommitted there what are you, alex . I mean i think im, as we all, are looking at that uncommitted vote tally, just because the resistance to bidens position, and his policies of the war in gaza has been anecdotal. This is the first time we are going to get literally raw votes, signaling how much dissent there is within democratic ranks. And as steve point, so its not just in the Arab American vote, its also county, the university of michigan, ann arbor. Young people who are going to be critical to democratic success in november, seeing what they do. You know, i dont think its that surprising that thats where all eyes are, in terms of the democratic side of the race. But im really eager to see how much this protest vote a masses, and what the implications potentially could be forgetting even a delegate assigned to this cause at the convention. Yeah, and its interesting too, it is an issue where it is a little like abortion, in that it can really change depending on how you ask the question. So even trying to get Public Opinion, reliable. I mean i have seen within the last day or so, battling polls, that show large majorities favor a ceasefire, large majority favor u. S. Continue backing of israel. So. Well right, and even the uncommitted vote is the lump sum of just discontent. Some people want a ceasefire, some people just have bidens lost to them. Some people want a different policy prescription. There is also, so now as we look at the sport. The other question that i think is interesting tonight about, this is a little bit of a nerdy Political Science part. Hit me with your best shot. I am giving it to you. There is a little question of like, how much does campaigning matter anymore . I think this is sort of the interesting question in this era, particularly the way the media environment works, and how wellknown trump, is particularly. He didnt really campaign that much in iowa, it didnt seem to hurt him. Michigan is a place where nikki haley had a month in South Carolina, she raised money, she did events, she was up, up on the air there as you would say. And michigan, there is basically none of that. I think she did one event after South Carolina, they havent been running ads. And it will be interesting to see like, if we see, if its not her home state, but if there is ignorant between South Carolina and michigan, what actually campaigning adds up to for her, in how much she is able to move. I would also say that could be true for biden to. Because he has done a ton for labor, a ton for union workers. He was walking the picket line with the uaw, he has the endorsement of the president. And yet, if you believe the polling, Union Support for him is soft in the state of michigan, which means that national concerns about whether its his age, or whether its inflation, i know you have a lot to say on that topic. But the hard and true facts of what he has done for workers in that state seemed, in some cases, we will see how it bears out tonight, to not be running as much to his benefit as you would think they would. All right, i want to bring in now nbc White House Correspondent mike who is live in dearborn, michigan. And mike, what are you hearing, and what are you looking at tonight for us . Well chris, its been so interesting, because weve been talking a lot about President Bidens perceived vulnerabilities heading into his reelection year. Democrats worried about his polling, or just the Public Perception of him. But when you talk to the Biden Campaign, the response has often been what the president himself always says. Dont judge me against the almighty, judge me against the alternative. Well what makes michigans primary tonight so interesting, is that essentially, almighty is the alternative. Voters who are casting a vote, not for joe biden in the democratic primary tonight, are not voting against him per se, they are voting for what they believe biden should be, in terms of their highest ideals. And obviously first and foremost, that comes down to whats going on with the war in gaza. Thats been clear as i have been here in dearborn all day, talk to voters who are casting that uncommitted vote. We are right now at an uncommitted watch party. Have you ever heard that before . I want to play some of the conversations we had, who talked about what as translating to tonight. Hes gonna win the nomination, however he needs to know that Dearborn Cannot Stand directly behind him, until he makes a firm stance on the war. I think there needs to be a direct call for a ceasefire, from our president. I think its a great opportunity to get the message to the administration. People in michigan are concerned about whats going on, in that theres a large group of people who want a ceasefire. This is the opportunity to get that message to the administration. I want him to change his policies, so i can vote for him. So chris and alex, i spoke with a Michigan Democratic source just in the last few hours, who made an interesting projection. Weve been talking about what the number four uncommitted might be, the expectations is always so interesting. Well, its been about 10,000 from the organizers of the uncommitted effort, which is actually far below what uncommitted has got in the last three democratic primaries. But somebody whos been looking at the voter file, theyve been doing modeling based on absentee voting. And their own projections say they think the uncommitted could get 100,000 votes. Now that sounds like a big number, but lets put that into perspective. What steve is right about Oakland County, 10 , and the turnout turns out to be what the Secretary Of State is forecasting, about 1 million in the democratic primary. That 10 is 100,000 votes. And look at what President Biden got in the hot, 90 of the vote. So, there is going to be a lot made of that uncommitted raw vote, of that uncommitted percentage with the Biden Campaign. Its emphasizing that they believe a lot of the voters who are Casting Uncommitted votes tonight will come back to the biden fold in november, when the choice again is not biden versus the almighty, but biden against donald trump. All right mike and emily, thank you very much for that. We should note in 2012 i believe, which is the last apples to apples comparison we have, when barack obama was the incumbent president , on the ballot uncommitted that year, and then around ten or 11 . Thats a benchmark to keep in mind, as these numbers come through. I want to go now to who is an msnbc correspondent. Is joining us live from grand rapids michigan. Shaq, what have you got . Hi there. Well, polls just closed, so we saw a steady trickle of people here throughout the day. And you know one thing, as i have been having conversations with voters, here its been clear that there are Different Things that have been bringing people to the polls today. For some, its a raw political calculation. Folks who said that they were supporting nikki haley, just because they wanted to stop donald trump. I spoke to one person who said hey, i like joe biden, but this is my way to vote against trump, this is my first opportunity to do so. For others, they say they were there to support their candidates. I spoke to a person who said he was supporting former president trump, because of immigration. They came to vote because of specific issues. I want you to listen to a couple of the conversations that ive been happening with folks today. He is the only one that has the ethical profile, that i appreciate. She is the only one that dont have to be embarrassed. Theres only one way to go, donald trump. Hes the man. Hes gonna get us back on track. Hes been there, and he knows, he knows a lot. Everybody gets old, and i think, having someone with experience when is better than someone knew coming in, and not knowing how things are. Up with is one of those areas, that we are going to be focused on. Not just for the primary, but as we go into the general election. And you get a sense of the range of voters that exist in this area, guys. All right, shaq brewster, always great to hear from you. Thank you, were gonna be checking back throughout the night. Lets go back to Steve Kornacki, steve we got some more vote in [inaudible] weve got some more vote [laughs] and its in a place thats critical to the story we are telling on the democratic side. We had just said a few minutes ago that county, where ann arbor in the university of michigan this, were Eastern Michigan University is. This is the king of College Counties in michigan. And we now have votes in there, significant number on the democratic side. And you can see obviously biden is winning, but this was the question here. This would be, we thought if uncommitted was having a good night, one of if not its best counties in the state. And right, now uncommitted getting 25 of the vote in county. One out of four count at least in this early batch we are seeing from washtenaw, going for uncommitted. So, you are getting votes, theyre ever getting more votes now in Oakland County as well. Theyre up to 36 . You see uncommitted, i think when we first checked, oakland was at about 9 also eaton county, a small county to the West Of Lansing [laughs] you do see their first batches uncommitted, close to 15. I mean there you go, uncommitted is now just over 15 . And again, it is obviously a big big biden victory, he will get the overwhelming share of the delegates tonight. But it is possible, when you see uncommitted start at this level, that 15 threshold for delegates, could be triggered in some places here, and uncommitted could start collecting delegates here. Now what this is translated to on the republican side, with a couple new counties coming in, take a look at that, trump here again, with almost a 2 to 1 lead over haley. We talk about haley, and where she has been appealing. College educated, suburbanite, higher income. I mean, thy name is Washtenaw County. And here is trump, at least with a little bit more with a third of the vote in, and trump is ahead here, this is a place haley to be having a good night, haley would have to be winning, and we would have to be talking about whats her margin up to. Now there are still more votes to come, and you can see if this reverses at all. But thats not a great sign for haley to be getting 42 in washington. She wants to be getting 42 statewide. This should be one of her best counties. And again in eaton county, this is one of those counties that swung more than 50 one of the bigger swings in the state for mitt romney at trump and 16. It had stayed with trump in 2020. So not surprisingly you see there, with about a third of the vote in, trump more than 50 points ahead of nikki haley. What that adds up to on the republican side, again, almost a 2 to 1 trump advantage. With over 40 in Oakland County. And wow, that haley number continues to fall. When we first checked in oakland, she was running at 43 , she was only about five points behind trump. She is now 2 to 1 behind trump. And again, when you think of those New Hampshire and South Carolina numbers appetite haley would like to replicate here, she talked about getting 40 in her speech in South Carolina last night. To be getting anywhere near there, shes got to be doing better than this, in a place like Oakland County, with all of those College Degrees in the suburbs. Again, more than half of the vote, probably still to come. But if she wants to have a chance of being anywhere near that benchmark. All right, Steve Kornacki thanks. Weve got a lot more to go tonight, we are going to get an actual poll closing, at nine pm. Counties in the and weve got also just the story of the state of the michigan, i almost said the state of the michigan insane party. The state of the Michigan Republican party, which is insane, and their election for the party chair in that state. More results as well, a whole lot in store, dont go away, well be right. Back store, dont go away, well be right. Back watch your step thats why visionworks makes it simple to schedule an eye exam that works for you. Even if you have a big trip to plan around. Thanks i mean, i can see you right now if thats. Convenient. Visionworks. See the difference. Woman why did we choose safelite . We were loading our suv when. 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Shop now at sleepnumber. Com whoa, how did you defeat them . With a little kung fu strength and by connecting my devices to the most powerful force of all. Skadoosh. Hah, huh . Cool right . Amazing. Harness the power of xfinity internet and stay connected to the things you love. Ah, theyll be like this for hours. Hello dad, hello dad, hello da. Uhoh. Good bunnies. Ahh so tonight, as we monitor results coming in from michigan, after polls closed most of the donald trump is expected to win the michigan primary. His victories in the primary so far, i think there is a developing storyline, which i think is a true one, that they might be masking the underlying problem. A fox news analysis, for example, found that nearly 60 of nikki haley voters in South Carolina said they will not vote for trump if he is the republican nominee. And among all Republican Voters in three early states, ap vote casts finding that quote, at least two intent of the voters in South Carolinas republican primary, and the Iowa Caucuses said they wont back trump in november, while approximately three in ten in New Hampshire felt that way. Tim miller is a former spokesman for the rnc, now a writer of ours for the bulwark. Michelle goldberg, who was recently in michigan, reporting ahead of this primary. And they join me now. Tim, what do you make so far of the story weve seen, that there is a significant chunk of these voters, who dont like trump, who arent voting in any sort of contested way. Like, they all know that nikki haley isnt going to, when they are coming out to send this message. And there is this open question of, are these people basically at this point functionally democrats, or anti trumpers . Or is there something sliver of the coalition that is splintering off in a way that should really concern republicans . Yeah look, i think there are basically three things happening once. So very briefly, one, donald trump is winning in historic landslide. We shouldnt lose sight of that. George bush for example in 2000, when he ran was considered a white landslide, he lost michigan to john mccain that year. So, this it was unprecedented, his victory. The difference now is those mccain voters came around and voted for george bush, right. So that is the question in the general election. And i think that there are two groups of people that are voting for nikki haley in these primaries. Some are functionally democrats. People that were republicans, that have left the party in the realignment. Some are literally democrats, who have crossed over and voted for. But then theres this other group, and i think its the most interesting group. And it is a significant portion, i think, if not of the haley vote, give or take. And that is people who are republicans, that as we learned in these exit polls in state after state, they really dont like donald trump at all. And many of them are gettable for joe biden, many of them dont like joe biden that much, to varying degrees. And i think that we are seeing now in realtime, the Joe Biden Campaign is now able to see a target demo of people that i think could help them potentially grow from 2020, and certainly grow from where their poll numbers are now, if these folks get reached. Michelle, i wonder, we were all on said a few days ago for the South Carolina primary. And trump began his victory remarks, saying the party is unified like never before. And i felt like such a set piece of trumps psychology, right. The thing that he is most terrified of is the thing he talks about, as if it is a foregone conclusion in the positive. And, i wonder if you think hailie could do, or should do anything, and will do anything to sort of help out the man who ultimately is going to be the nominee here. What is your expectation for the medium term game with regards to these Republican Voters . Well so my expectation though is a few weeks ago, haley was going to bend the knee, like everybody else inevitably does. Although its been really interesting to see her finally run the sort of campaign against donald trump that, frankly, people should have been running since donald trump first stepped onto the scene. And if somebody had stepped up and down, that we might not be in this, its too late now, but we might not be in this perilous and its a little bit hard to see the way back once i mean, Lindsey Graham was able to crawl back. But, it is hard to see her and game, unless she imagines a sort of post trump Republican Party, in the same way there is a post george w. Bushs Republican Party, once his failure had been, had finally overtaken the cult like our that had surrounded him in the early 2000s. Not to the same extent as trump. And i just want to say one other thing, we are all watching the uncommitted vote, ive written about the uncommitted campaign. If the uncommitted Campaign Reaches the double digits, its going to be seen as really devastating for joe biden. But, joe biden, the Democratic Party is much more unified behind joe biden, and there is not a parallel narrative. I mean maybe there is one starting to emerge, that donald trump, that there is such a huge part of the Republican Party that is not happy. Actively, actively turned off from donald trump, right. In the same way you would have dissent within go ahead no im just going to say that, to tim, this gets to this asymmetry, as we rauch watch these results come in we think about them tonight. There is almost this psychological Profile Asymmetry between the two parties. Its like, democrats are nervous and anxious, and a lot of Hand Wringing about everything. Sometimes with good reason, sometimes when they probably shouldnt be. And tim, republicans are just like, we are chilling, we are good, everythings fine america belongs to us anyway. And we are going to win this thing, even as, it does seem like theres some signals in the data, that maybe yeah, as a former republican, im trying to bring some of that chill to the tonight. Its not working, its not working. No, you dont understand how we roll here. Part of the explanation is, here, lets just try to be real. Democrats are rightfully panicked about a donald trump victory. And so any sign that might indicate that he is going to win, i think it causes them a little agitation. Most republicans, like there is a small percentage of the actual base, the True Believers republicans who are not represented on cable news. They have a lot of about what happened of joe bidens second term. But elite republicans, we their final joe biden second term. Their life goes on, their life might be better, frankly. And so, i think that is another reason that explains the asymmetry. That is a very, very good point. Tim miller, michelle goldberg, thank you, great to have you both. Still ahead, the push from the left to send a message to President Biden. The mayor of Dearborn Michigan joins me on the listen to michigan movement. Thats next. On the listen to michigan movement. Thats next. All parts working in sync to move your business forward. With a streamlined shipping network. And new, highspeed processing and delivery centers. For more value. More reliability. And more ontime deliveries. The United States Postal Service is built for how you business. And how you business is with simple, affordable and reliable shipping. Usps ground advantage. No, my dentures uncomfortable dracula, lets fight back against discomfort. With new poligrip power max hold comfort. 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If it keeps this up without this incredibly conservative government, and bengvir and others. I every major Foreign Policy leader in israel since golden may or. They are going to lose support from around the world. And that is not an israels interest. That was President Biden last night on seth myers, offering a public warning to israel, in his most, i would say public break with israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to date. There are three factors at play here,. One is the ever worsening situation for palestinians in gaza, as israel continues its offensive there. Two is, as President Biden acknowledged, fading international support, as the war goes on. And three is the domestic politics of supporting israels war, especially in michigan, a true swing state, with the largest concentration of arab American Voters in the country. There, a movement called listen to michigan is urging state democratic voters to vote uncommitted today, as a protest vote against bidens handling of the war. One of the people spearheading the movement is the mayor of Dearborn Michigan, the city with the largest percentage of Arab Americans in the country. Last week an essay in the New York Times he wrote, quote, i will be checking the box for uncommitted on my president ial primary ballot tuesday. In doing so, i am choosing hope. I hope that mr. Biden listens. The hope that he and those in the democratic will choose the salvation of our democracy over aiding and abetting mr. Netanyahus war crimes. And abdelhamid, who has been the mayor of dearborn since 2022, joins me now. Its good to have you on, mister mayor. Can you tell me a little bit about the origin of this idea . I dont think ive ever quite covered a campaign specifically like this, under these conditions. How did it come about . Well, i think the organizers came together, as a multi ethnic, multi racial, multi generational multi faith coalition, that we are absolutely the president s decisionmaking, and his course over the period of the present. And what we want to do is send a clear message, that we will not support genocide. And we are doing with every other community does, we are organizing on the ground, and mobilizing our block to send that clear message, that we want President Biden to withdraw his support for the most right wing and tyrannical government in israels history. Theres, one of the strange things about this issue in the context of the campaign, is one can imagine ten or 15 years ago, that both major party candidates, likely nominees would have positions on it. So you have a situation like when russia Invaded Georgia in 2008, john mccain came out and said this is what i support, barack obama came out and said, this is what i support. In this instance, you have a sitting president who has the record he has, joe bidens. And then you have a likely nominee, donald trump, who has said it to every question, it wouldnt happen if i were there. Who has not outlined any alternative. And i wonder, when you think about the choice that you and other voters face, what do you make of that . Well right now, its President Biden who is in office. And i believe in holding our elected officials accountable, even if we belong to the same party. And that is the message that we are trying to send. We want a president who does not support a genocide. We want us a president who believes in the same values that we believe. And no innocent man, woman, or shout should be killed, and there is no qualifier to that statement. We believe in demanding a permanent and long lasting ceasefire, so that we can have the release of all hostages, and prisoners that have been taken over the course of the last several, over 140 days now. We want humanitarian aid to come in, and more than anything, we refused to return back to the status quo, and that means providing the Palestinian People ageist palestinian state. On that last point about, what you would consider essentially the demands met. The things you just talked about. There has been discussion of a ceasefire, there are intense negotiations, there have been multiple rounds, the president spoke about the possibility of that a ceasefire, and hostage and prisoner exchanges. What do you see as a vision of the president listening to you . And what that would look like, in your community, and the folks that you are talking to afterwards . You know, i recognize that the president has changed his tone. He has now recognized the palestinian grief in the loss of life, when he did not do so even as late as 100 days into the current conflict. But for us, words are not enough. We want action, you know. We still see a president and his administration that is advocating for unrestricted military aid to be sent to israel. We see a president who is unwilling to hold accountable the radical israeli settlers, who are withholding humanitarian aid from coming in to over 2 Million People who are suffering from famine and starvation. And today in fact, there is 50 less aid to enter relative for the month of january. That is unacceptable. And so for us, we think if we want to begin a conversation the first and most immediate thing we need to do is step to the podium, and to stop using language such as humanitarian pauses, which is just disrespectful and dehumanizing. And once in four, all come out and say we demand the end of the killing of all innocent men, women, and children. And that begins with a permit and lasting ceasefire. With a and lasting ceasefire. Dearborn, michigan and both we are looking at tonight. Thank, you sir. Appreciate it. Lets head back over to Steve Kornacki at the big board, where there is more votes coming in. Steve, how is it looking . Lets pick up on what you n were talking about. Theyre the question of uncommitted on the democratic side. We are starting to get answers here. I think, very shortly, we decou have a clear answer because dearborn, we were just talking to the mayor, is in wayne county. Less than 100 votes. But we are starting to see, obviously, something happened ob in wayne county. This is where detroit, is the biggest ntin the state. So, maybe soon we will get something from wayne that will tell us just how uncommitted is doing there. By next door in washtenaw more than a third of the vote in uncommitted, and Washtenaw County. What is also interesting here on the democratic side, go to the raupper Lower Peninsula of michigan, where we are starting to get a bit of the vote. In this is a very different en sort of demographically at part of the state, and actually, only 3 in crawford county. But go to alcona county, where e weve got more, about 60 of the vote. In all very small counties up here. But if uncommitted is tracking a double digits in some of these counties, that would certainly suggest the 15 is very achievable, for a statewide. And this is the smallest in the state. Even, there it gives you a sense. Its running over 10 . So, and we can look down even in kalamazoo county. Its very, very early here. But you want to say the possibility here, certainly, that uncommitted could break 15 statewide, very real. But as we want to see the vote come in here very soon, that will hopefully answer the question. On the republican side, donald trump continuing to lead about 2 to 1 over ailey. I think whats really troubling right now, if you are hailey, is a lot of the vote is coming in e from southeast michigan. These are the biggest in terms of anthe vote here this i the biggest area of vote in the population of. State if haley is going to be having a night, as we said, it gets anywhere near what she did in New Hampshire in South Carolina, 40, 43 , you are going to see Oakland County, she keeps shrinking her total keeps shrinking every time we come. Barely over 30 in oakland. If shes over 30 in oakland and a lot of counties in the state. And the other place, Washtenaw County, this county, again, the college county, in 2016. There is no county of michigans 83 with a combined where the ted the Ted John Kasich and marco rubio vote was higher than in Washtenaw County and this could will be. Washtenaw could be her best performance in any county in the. State and shes not even at New Hampshire level there with two thirds voting right now in the area of hope for haley, if there is any, we still dont have anything in there from that grand rapids area and we want to see what we get in from. It has been the trump resistant part of the state. We will see what that looks like youre. But otherwise, again, statewide donald trump up about 2 to 1. And just starting to see, we mentioned, again, the upper Lower Peninsula, and the u. P. On the republican side, give you a taste of what the counties are going to look like, they are small individually. But collectively they do add up to about one in six vote statewide. I think this is what you are going to be seeing throughout these counties. So, what hailie needed to do tonight, knowing that this was coming, again, this was the kind of place she needed to be. Winning. Shes getting clobbered. This is the kind of place you need to be winning by a big margin. Shes down double digits. So, right now, these results, unless something changes dramatically, and the only plausible thing, really, is in this grand rapids area, the idea of haley getting near that South Carolina and New Hampshire total, she looks right now like she is awfully far from. It all. Right, Steve Kornacki thank, you the next round of was about to close in michigan, which would be the final polls. We are going to go back to Steve Kornacki for the latest numbers next next when moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis takes you off course. Put it in check with rinvoq, a oncedaily pill. When i wanted to see results fast, rinvoq delivered rapid Symptom Relief and helped Leave Bathroom urgency behind. Check. When uc tried to slow me down. I got lasting, steroidfree remission with rinvoq. Check. And when uc caused Damage Rinvoq came through by visibly repairing my colon lining. Check. Rapid Symptom Relief. Lasting steroidfree remission. And the chance to visibly repair the colon lining. Check, check, and check. Rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. Serious infections and blood clots, some fatal; cancers, including lymphoma and skin cancer; death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. People 50 and older with at least 1 Heart Disease risk factor have higher risks. Dont take if allergic to rinvoq as serious reactions can occur. Tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. Put uc in check and keep it there with rinvoq. Ask your gastroenterologist about rinvoq and learn how abbvie can help you save. ohhh crap, thats a really good gift. Now we gotta get france something. Wait we can use etsys new gift mode yes, what do the french like . Anyone . Cheese. They like cheese brilliant. Done. Plateau de fromage oh la la [cheering] dont panic. Gift easy with gift mode, new on etsy. Just 15 minutes from now, the polls in those four michigan counties that observed central time will be closed. They expect to get a better characterization of the race at that time it both the democratic and republican primaries. The numbers already pouring in for michigan, 79 other counties giving us an early look at how these contests are shaping up. Well head back over to Steve Kornacki at the big board. Steve, what are you seeing now . Not much change. We just have one more county here from the upper peninsula. Weve got a bit of the vote in. But again here, the other one that i think lights up, and people might be curious about, because we highlighted it earlier, we do have some votes coming in from coleman county, but its barely any, just to give you essence here. This is, again, one of the two major Northern Suburban counties outside detroit. In Oakland County, we talk about Oakland County being sort of the Opportunity County for nikki haley. Demographically, its right smack in the middle of what has been her wheelhouse in South Carolina and New Hampshire in terms of voters with College Degrees, higher income, suburbanites. And then, macomb, where were looking right now, just to the east of oakland, that is the blue collar. A Big Blue Collar Suburban County of detroit. And, again its a tiny amount of vote in here. But we expected coming in tonight that its gonna be a pretty big contrast between oakland and macomb, that trump would win macomb and would win macomb, frankly, by a very wide margin. What hailie needed to do, we said oakland is an Opportunity County for her, was offset what trump has is getting out of macomb, with oakland. And instead, now more than half the vote continues to slowly tick up. And shes at 31 and a half percent in oakland. And again, this county, Washtenaw County, these should be haleys two best counties in the very, very highly populated southeastern part of the state. And then as she has managed in either one of them, with a significant vote in now, in washtenaw counties, just 42 . So, again, with all these other areas of the state that are going to be very, very trump heavy, that is adding up to something, if this dynamic, holds that is adding up to something far less than she got in South Carolina, New Hampshire. Though, again, we say the big wildcard, we are still waiting here 17 of the vote. That is about one out of every six votes in this primary, are still going to come out of this grand rapids area, at least holland, michigan, ottawa county, here even kalamazoo county, which is down here. But there is almost no votes. There is red for trump. But look, its almost no votes in ye. But this is the area where trump struggled the most in the 2016 primary, and this is the part of the state that the general election, traditionally republican, that swung the hardest away from trump in 2016, and even further in 2020. So, again, this is the big remaining Opportunity Zone for nikki haley. And again, if she wants to keep this number at 32 , and even take it up, this is where she has got to really really got to land a punch here. Because so far, what we are seeing in oakland, and washtenaw, which will be too big opportunities for her, our swings and misses. All, right Steve Kornacki, we are going to keep looking as those numbers come. And we are now approaching nine pm here on the east coast, when the final polls will close in michigans republican and democratic primaries. We are starting to see the results. But there has been a test for both parties in different ways. And a kind of Temperature Check on some of the discontent and division among each coalition. Claire mccaskill is a former democratic senator of missouri. And she joins me now. Lets talk about the conundrum that, politically, joe biden faces on israel gaza, which is an issue that is going to divide the coalition, no matter what. It is literally the most polarizing issue, probably, in global politics. And the nature of the Democratic Coalition, as you heard the democratic mayor of dearborn, is such that there are people on each side of that issue deeply and passionately within inside the Democratic Party. Yeah, its so emotional. This is not your typical political issue. This is one that people feel deeply and sincerely. And i do think joe biden is going to have to confront bibi netanyahu. I think hes good to have to go after him, hammer and tongs with the way he has conducted this, and frankly, if you look at what is going on in israel, Benjamin Netanyahu is really kowtowing to a very far right coalition that put him in power. Yeah. And he is not really doing the job the way it should be done. And biden has an opportunity there. But also, chris, we have to remember, lets look at the ann arbor numbers. Joe biden did not win ann arbor. Bernie sanders won ann arbor. Yeah, yeah. So, some of these areas have never been biden country. Yeah, certainly. They have many more people that are further left and did not like the idea of a moderate carrying the flag of our party. If you are the elites of the Democratic Party, if you are the Biden White House, how concerned are you, really, about this faction of uncommitted voters staying home in november . I think there is a danger on both sides here, that people are going to stay home. I think youve got traditional republicans that, no way they will vote for joe biden. And no way they will vote for donald trump. So, there is going to be some people that are going to hold their nose and vote, and then theres going to be people that just stay home. The question is, will the Biden Campaign be able and by the way, there are no elites in our party. Yes, sorry. Dont exist, actually. I know you didnt mean that. But the question is, can biden draw the contrast around some kinds of issues like abortion, and guns, and frankly, autocracy, and what trump is saying he is going to do. I mean, hes going to tear up dictator on day one. I was looking at some statewide polling today, one of the things you can sicily michigan statewide polling, its a state with a popular second term democratic governor who is, still intersection term, above water in terms unfavorability. Which is amazing. Amazing. Usually, you start to go down, right . Theres a lot of offsides for democrats in that state. Theyve passed a lot of legislation, theyve won a statewide ballot on abortion. They have a Popular Democratic governor. Joe biden, according to the polling, is below those benchmarks but it also means there is a bunch of voters in that state that have been pulling the lever, or casting the vote for democrats, in the last few elections, where there are obvious, clear, gettable votes for the president ial campaign. It would be a big mistake to take michigan for granted. On the other, hand they have not had a republican senator in a long, long time. What do you think nikki haleys game is right . Now if she does measurably worse than she has been doing, what is the issue waiting for the convention . Or she waiting for a conviction . Right, the convicted, yeah. If hes convicted, its not donald trump junior that the party chooses at the convention . She will its not the person who has been the benedict arnold, if you will, in this whole primary process. Honestly, what i think happened . I think, a couple of months ago, her got kicked in, and she just said, i am done. And im going to say like i really believe it. Because i think she was so careful for the first year she was running to never go against him, never say the things that she says now. Very easily, that it i think she said today, it would be suicide for our country to elect him again. That is pretty bold. Last question, just for you, quickly on, that is the Haley Question is, there is also the after super tuesday question. Which is, does she pack it up then and then do the Lindsey Graham . The sort of bend the knee . And everyone always says, well, theyll never get back in the tent. Everyone does, right . Its not like there is a steve bannon is back in the tent i dont know. With this guy, shes a woman, hes not very kind to women in the first place. He really does not like folks that are not loyal. And may have gotten back in, but it probably had something to do with money. You know what i mean . Yeah. I mean, bannon can help him raise money in that realm. So, i dont know that she gets back in. And it will be interesting to see if she even tries. There is certainly a double standard for women when it comes to donald trump. Claire mccaskill its always so wonderful to have you in the flesh, no less. You bet. I dont know, chris, its worth counting down the minutes and seconds until the polls close across the state of michigan. But in advance of that, i just wonder, as we talk about all of this, whether you think that Something Big is going to come out of michigan, given the fact that both parties have a stake in the results tonight, whether we are going to see any sort of measurable difference in the campaign . Look, i think the messaging that claire just talked about, it is appreciably the case in all the Public Opinion dated that we have that there has been erosion overtime within the Democratic Coalition within israels war effort. What that amounts to is all a question. But this from the perspective of the folks who are trying to get them to change course, this is a sort of ideal time, because of that trajectory. And you wonder, whatever happens tonight, is another nudge in that direction. A direction, i think, they are already moving. The trump people are like, they are going ahead. Like, everyone, its just, they are behind the wheel with a blindfold and a fifth of vodka, and everyone is just in trouble. He has his hands on the wheel. Everyone is troubled. I would be more stressed out, but they are not stressed out. Donald trump is not stressed out about this clear schism that is happening within the Republican Party, to clear dissent that exists. We are seeing it proven out in the polls. And look at that. We have an election it is almost, in a matter of seconds, it is going to be 9 00 on the east coast. And when that happens in five, four, three, two, one, the polls will have close, as they have right now across the entire state of michigan. At