Transcripts For MSNBCW Morning 20240702

russian, we are waiting to see who will come back home. it's crazy. we don't have names yet. only speculations that it's going to be mothers and their children. and it's tough, very tough. >> have you allowed yourself to think about what you might say to her the first time you see her? >> i don't think i will speak, i will just hold her and hug her and i won't ask questions, that's for sure. and i just want to hold her. >> that is the mother of a hostage who is being held by hamas right now. she may soon see her daughter following a significant diplomatic breakthrough in the middle east. there's a tentative deal to release dozens of people captured by the terrorist group more than six weeks ago. we're going to get a live report from tel aviv in just a moment. this all comes as the u.s. military is becoming more aggressive in its response to attacks against service members in the widen region. retired four-star navy admiral, james stavridis joins us with expert unless on that and much more. also ahead we're going to go through the new donald trump dilemma for democrats, they seem to be switching the strategy on how much coverage they want the former president to receive, not that they have a say. good morning, and welcome to "morning joe." it's wednesday, november 22nd. we begin with that breaking news. israel and hamas, agreeing to a deal to release some of the hostages kidnapped during last month's deadly terrorist attack. qatar, which has been mediating the negotiations made the announcement last night. the terms of the agreement include a four-day pause in fighting. during that time, 50 women and children will be released in stages. in exchange, 150 palestinian women and children who are being detained in israel will be freed. more humanitarian aid will also be allowed into gaza during the pause in fighting including fuel trucks. all of this is likely to begin tomorrow. once israeli judges revw any potential legal challenges to the prisoner release. prime minister benjamin netanyahu's office confirmed the agreement last night in a statemt,xplaining that if the pause in fighting is extended, an additional ten hostages will be released a day. but netanyahu warns, his country's mission is not over. writing israel will quote, continue the war in order to return home all of the hostages, complete the elimination of hamas, and enre that there will be no new threat to the state of israel from gaza. joining us now from tel aviv, nbc news chief international correspondent keir simmons with more. keir. >> reporter: i think there's a sign of the political and national angst here in israel. it took nine hours of meetings of the israeli government for israel to decide that it would sign up to this four-day pause. they may extend at this point, what we understand about the deal is that there will be 50 hostages, women and children, civilians released in exchange for 150 palestinian women and children released from israeli jails. that there will be a pause in drone flights over gaza. there will be humanitarian aid, including fuel, a lot of it, maybe 3 to 400 trucks going into gaza. the deal is now pretty clear. it's been mediated by qatar and egypt and overseen by the u.s. and overnight, actually in the early hours of this morning, president biden praising those two countries, thanking prime minister netanyahu who pushed through this deal overnight with the message that you described, mika, of saying that just because there's a pause, it won't mean that the war is over pushing it through with his party and pushing it through despite the objections of the right in the israeli government. but as your sound in the beginning of our interview showed, for the families, the situation is pretty much the same, they are still waiting. we had a chance to speak to the aunt of abigail, the 3-year-old american-israeli hostage, her parents were killed, but the rest of her family, just hope that she will be released in time for they are 4th birthday on friday. take a listen. >> i think about her brother and sister who both watched their parents be murdered on october 7th. abigail coming home for the grandparents, for the family, is that one hope to have her back, embrace her. her birthday is on friday. she's turning 4. and to, like, just imagine that she comes home and is with her family is our light right now. in such a very dark and terribly horrific period. >> reporter: hamas is saying that that pause will begin tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. here. that hasn't been officially announced yet. the israeli have put out a list of the palestinians they plan to release from prison, and it is up to the victim, people who view themselves as victims of those prisoners to go to the supreme court if they object to palestinians being released. i think it is partly also a moment to reflect, isn't it, that 1,200 israelis and others died in those terror attacks on october 7th, and according to the health ministry controlled by hamas, we are now at more than 14,000 people killed in gaza. and right now what we have is a four-day pause in which hamas has attained the release of 150 prisoners. >> nbc's keir simmons, thank you very much. and, joe, i mean, this deal, it's not perfect, but it provides a tiny glimmer of hope in what has been a brutal six weeks. >> it provides so much hope for israelis that have seen their families kidnapped, thrown into tunnels, and there is -- there has been debate in israel over whether this was a deal that was worth giving a terrorist organization who seized children, some as young as six months from their homes and women, family members, and kidnapped them and threw them under tunnels, all knowing, again, all knowing this day would come. this is the "wall street journal," i want to read from the "wall street journal" editorial this morning on the israel-hamas hostage deal. this is what they say. the hostage deal that israel and hamas reached today is going to spare the life of some 50 israelis and that is a great relief to the innocents and their families. the cost is a short-term cease fire that hamas will exploit, and 3/4 of the 236 hostages will remain in terrorist hands. israeli leaders believe the trade is worth it, and that is not our place to second guess their judgment. in exchange for returning israeli children and women, hamas is set to receive a four-day pause in operations and a release of 150 of 18 female operatives from israeli prisons. israel will allow more fuel and aid into gaza. the pause might extend longer if hamas gives up more hostages, ten for each additional day. the deal, again, shows the moral gulf between the two sides. hamas kidnapped israeli children as young as nine months to use as hostages. israel takes military risks to vets citizens. hamas risks palestinian civilians to save itself. let's bring in the former supreme allied commander of nato, retired four star amiral james steve stavridis. david ignatius, and white house bureau of "politico," jonathan lemire. an extraordinarily happy day for israel and the children of israel. let me ask you as a military commander, what are your concerns? >> number one, the re-supply, which hamas will take enormous advantage of. they'll bring in ammunition, command and control devices. they'll bring in fuel. all of that is simply unavoidable. number two, it gives a psychological boost to hamas. in other words, they will say in their council of war, look, our plan is working. we gathered up these israeli civilians, and now we will parcel them out like chips at a casino to get what we want back, which is a break in combat operations. and then thirdly, hamas will use this period of time to move their fighters around through these tunnels, so i'm absolutely thrilled to see this deal go through as a human being. as a military officer, you have to recognize the downside, and i know that the israeli military high command is going to grapple with that. they'll do everything they can to neutralize these factors. they will then continue. and, joe, i'll close with this, the principle military objective here is rescuing hostages, finding and eliminating the top ranks of hamas, but the physical military objective are those tunnels. 300 miles of these tunnels, it's given hamas its reason to live, its ability, you're showing them now, multiply that by hundreds of miles under gaza itself. the israelis are not going to stop this operation before they eliminate the military capability of those tunnels. so bottom line for the israeli military, a lot of work ahead, and everyone will celebrate, and it's thanksgiving day here in america tomorrow. i think we'll see some hostages come home, but, boy, militarily, it's a tough one. >> yeah, an extraordinary day personally for these families. militarily, it has to be a tough one because think about this, i mean, hamas has not only played israel. they have applied the world like -- played the world like a fiddle since the beginning. they knew they could go in rape, burn, slaughter, execute israelis on october 7th, take hostages flee back to gaza. they knew before the attacks were launched that they would hide behind civilians. israeli would try to bring justice to the people who killed their grandmothers and who shot their children and burned their babies in their cribs, raped their women. hamas knew that israel would then go after them so they did what hamas always did, hid behind civilians. hamas also knew before this began that at some point they would strike a deal to give hostages back and do it through qatar. they knew this beforehand, and they knew that israel would have to do it, why, because, well, the israelis like so many others outside of hamas value life, and so they're going to do it. t make no mistake, hamas knew this was going to happen. they knew this day was coming, and they knew they would be able to refuel, rearm, reload during any cease fire that was given to them. so that of course is all balanced, david rohde with the fact that 50 hostages are going free. 50 families are going to see their children and their mothers, their daughters, their family members again, that they never thought they would see again. it's a hell of a balance, but what an extraordinary day for these families. >> it's awful but welcome to the horrific world of hostage taking. hamas is monstrous. the scale of the kidnapping. this has never happened, roughly 230 people kidnapped, you know, elderly people. this 3-year-old american girl, abigail will hopefully be freed as part of this deal. it's horrible. it will benefit hamas in the short-term. i think hamas will be crushed. i think those tunnels will be destroyed. i have been surprised at the success of the israeli military in terms of taking control of north gaza. they have lost dozens of troops, that's a terrible price but hamas has not been putting up this tremendous house-to-house, block-by-block resistance that was expected. that's one small positive thing. on one level, this is a good thing for the biden administration. they have pushed hard for this hostage release, and i think in the long-term it will help israel. it was mentioned by keir simmons, the death toll is 14,000, an estimated 5,000 children have died. the arab street, which is furious, and focuses on the palestinians, this is a good thing for israel. lastly, this is what happens when the world sort of ignores problems, and lets groups like hamas fester. i'm part of a group of former hostages how do we stop the accelerated practice of hostage taking and part of it is eliminating or not allowing radical groups to have enclaves, areas where they can take hostages. it's a good day, a small step forward, but a huge challenge remains. >> david ignatius, you and i have done reporting as to how this all came together. biden officials believing this was proof their approach has been working, applying subtle pressure on israel and of course also within israel, netanyahu getting intense domestic pressure, particularly from the families of the hostages to make an agreement. even over objections of military commanders. david, take us behind closed doors here about how this deal came together and what third parties were involved. >> so, jonathan, i wanted to start with the human mention of this. when you read the testimony of a woman like myan zin who has two daughters who have been held saying i want to go to gaza to die with them. i can't bear the life i'm living separated from them. you can't help but rejoice that some of these children and mothers are coming out. it's really an extraordinary achievement. people have been working very hard. i am struck by several aspects of it. first, when this war began, israel was just so shocked and stunned by what hamas had done, there was a feeling, we got to go all the way, all out combat. we just have to put the hostages aside in our mind and go after the tunnels. there may be hostages in the tunnels. we have to pound, pound, pound, week by week, as the hostage families became clearer and louder, as their pictures, if you travel around tel aviv, their pictures are everywhere. travel down the roads toward gaza, every settlement has got pictures of its hostages displayed. there was a realization for the government that they were going to have to think of a way as they pursued this war against hamas to also get hostages out. what they have create instead this deal that's interesting is a positive dynamic where the more hostages hamas releases, the longer the pause it will get, and so in the initial phase, the 50 women and children that hamas actually holds, it can identify them, it can describe each person in detail, will come out over four days. there are another 20 that they think they can get easily. they won't hold them, but they can get them. if they release the 20, they will get a further pause. another 30 men and women, can they find them and get them out. maybe. israel is holding out the promise, what about male civilians, can you get them, for each of them, we're prepared to add additional pauses, additional humanitarian aid, so israel has created a dynamic that's going to put the hostages and their release first. i don't think to speak to admiral stavridis correct question that israel in any way is altering its fundamental determination to destroy hamas's political power but has chosen a route that is going to the greatest extent possible get these israeli citizens and foreigners out if it's possible. if hamas can be convinced to do this more for more exchange. >> and of course, admiral, we never know where all of this leads. we never know what at the end brings down hamas other than the israelis and others who hate terrorism, continue fighting them. but, you know, the passing of rosalynn carter, of course, brings into sharper focus the legacy of jimmy carter. again, a legacy that much like truman will grow through the years with historians, with an extraordinary middle east peace process, the normalization of relations with china, the aiding of afghanistan and beating the soviets, driving the soviets out, the promotion of human rights that eventually led to, you know, helped lead to the fall of the soviet union and the ramping of the military in the last year. i say that all to say, when you look back at jimmy carter a dark mark on his presidency was the iranian hostage crisis. i must say, looking back, though, all of these years leader, it's remarkable the restraint jimmy carter showed in not responding to every call for an invasion or turning iran in a parking lot, if if anybody was around in 1979, that was the common refrain, turn ran into a parking lot. destroy them, if hostages die, hostages die. this cannot stand. the restraint he showed, he may be one of the only presidents who actually had the humanitarian instincts to save every one of those lives. what may not make military sense today may make a lot of sense ten years from now. i know i've got on a bit on this. i know you understand this. speak to this, if you will, how everything that seems so clear today may not be so clear even five years from now. >> oh, i'd love to, and just one quick note of before the presidency and after the presidency, i think you know this, joe, but he's our naval academy graduate who became president, so all of us annapolis graduates and military naval officers, very proud of jimmy carter who's a nuclear submariner, we can all agree, what a host presidency life, full of character, writing beautiful books, building homes, so really, a sterling life lived. in terms of the hostage situation, yes, i agree with you. in retrospect, perfectly handled in so many ways. by the way, let's not forget, he did something that the israelis, i think, may attempt, which is hostage rescue. he launched a hostage rescue attempt that failed. fortunately the united states military was able to learn lessons from that, and pull back from it, but he then pursued the diplomacy you see occurring right here, and to your point, joe, he resisted that urge to simply go in and flatten teheran. and by the way, i know david ignatius, having traveled recently in the region in the immediate aftermath will tell you israelis were saying go into gaza, simply flatten it. destroy the entire thing. they chose not to. they chose to take this path using precision approaches to include special forces. the only reason hamas did not kill 7 million jews on the 7th of october is because they lacked the military capability to do so. israel could have killed 2 million gazans on october 8th, killed them all, they chose not to because that's not who they are, and those, i think, are something we should bear in mind is the false equivalency you sometimes hear. >> you know, admiral stavridis, as you were speaking about the mood in israel, i'm just remembering what i heard. there was after october 7th and continues to this day a deep rage. it seems everybody in israel knew somebody, knew a family that had been touched by this, had lost a person killed or taken hostage. everywhere i went in israel, i kept encountering that, and there was a desire to flatten gaza, just to, you know, go all out. and i think what we're seeing in these recent days is that the, as i said earlier, the passion to save hostage lives has been competing with the desire to really go after and destroy the power of the enemy, and with this hostage release, israel's decided it's going to pull back. it's going to slow down its offensive, something that's hard to do in a situation where you've got the momentum, you're moving forward, but you say we're going to slow down. we're going to create an incentive to release as many hostages as possible. don't think for a moment that the israelis have stopped in their campaign against hamas. i promise you, talking to israelis yesterday, they still have the most ambitious and intense plans. but they do want to get as many israelis as possible out before we get to the end game of this war. >> as we close the conversation here, david, any thoughts given everything that has been said, and also in this deal, what stands out to you? is there any way of assessing the status of the remaining hostages if the first 50 are released in waves? >> there will be no men, an american citizen, ten americans, hersh, his hand was blown off when a hamas militant through a grenade into a shelter. i hope he's released. i'm not sure he will be. so a joyous day for some families, but not all the families, and just so much pain. >> so much pain. >> you know, jonathan lemire, before we go, we should state what is obvious to those of us around the table but may not be obvious to those at home watching, what an integral role the biden administration played in all of this, working with allies in the region, working with qatar, same with obviously antony blinken and of course jake sullivan, the entire national security team, so engaged with this since the morning of october 7th. here we see again what an oversized role joe biden and his team have played in israel since this crisis began. >> there's no question. president biden just in the days after the attack went to israel, wrapped his arms, literally around benjamin netanyahu, a man with whom he's had significant differences over the years and pledged steadfast support for israel on what would come next and by holding him so tight, the plan would create the ability to instruct him, warn him, chide him, if necessary. we have seen in recent weeks, the talks, and qatar played a key role, brokering negotiations, keeping the cell of advisers small as to who was working on this, and that included jake sullivan, his deputies as well as of course the tireless efforts of the secretary of state, and the biden administration, they feel like this is evidence that at least their approach to this point has worked. some of these hostages, knock on wood, coming home in the next couple of days. and they have been able to restrain israel a degree in how they hit back at gaza, and some senior officials told me last night, though there's a sense of quiet relief that the first part of the deal is done, a lot of work remains, and there are so many hostages being held in gaza. >> retired admiral, james stavridis, nbc's david rohde and "the washington post's" david ignatius, thank you all very much for your insight and analysis this morning. we really appreciate it. and still ahead on "morning joe," a conversation on donald trump's authoritarian rhetoric and whether bringing more attention to it is the correct strategy for democrats. plus, ron desantis just picked up a key evangelical endorsement in iowa. we'll show you what the religious leader had to say about supporting the florida governor over the former president. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. atching "mo" we'll be right back. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is 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and the concern it's causing among historians and much of the american public. i would see it as a tilt, joe, or completely running straight into it. >> just going to say, mr. binder knows once again even on live television, the dangers of ever writing anything about donald trump because it's never enough or it's too much. it is never just right. and can i get an amen from the reporters here. >> yes, you can. michael, let's begin with you, though, your piece obviously started, once again, a conversation about donald trump. again, not just mimicking the words of past authoritarian and fascist leaders but also doing that against a backdrop of violence on january 6th, doing that against a backdrop of violence by one of his supporters against paul pelosi, doing that against the backdrop of him mocking pelosi, calling for violence against his opponents. all very very toxic mix going into the '24 election. >> yeah, that's right, and kind of we have all known, everyone has known for a while, trump has long run as an outrageous candidate, right, he's been willing to say and do things that few in our lifetime have been willing to do and say on a national stage but what strikes me this time, and which sparked this article has been, you know, most of the focus of his attacks, particularly whether he started were foreign marks. muslim immigrants, his panic immigrants and the change we have seen over the last few campaigns, particularly now, is he's saved some of the most vicious attacks for domestic opponents, and that turn inward comes at a time when he and his allies are coming up with plans to weaponize the department of justice, to surround himself with lawyers in a potential second term that would bless some of his most contentious actions, this piece tried to pull all of that together, while also showing some of the examples of, you know, this authoritarian language that he's really been leaning into really for the past year. >> past year, and there are many people who believe it really needs to be discussed. you know, this show got criticized a great deal, especially through 2015, for saying that donald trump could win the republican nomination. and for us having him on the show, there has also, of course, been great criticism of other networks that have allowed him to have town hall meetings. and it's interesting, i'm saying this leading up to an interesting conundrum, democrats want trump plastered all over the news. let me read from it briefly here and have you respond. three years later, after trump left the white house, mr. biden's reelection campaign and democratic officials across the party spectrum have landed on a new solution, instead of ignoring donald trump. more trump. criticizing the news media for giving mr. trump a platform is out, quietly pining for networks to broadcast trump rallies is in. binding and probably longing for the former president to gobble up, is yearlong dependence on trump's machine. since his descent, mr. trump has been a one-man democratic turnout operation. uniting an otherwise fractured opposition and fueling victories in three straight election cycles reports reid epstein, and, john, "national review" had a line that i think summarized it succinctly. when americans are talking about joe biden, republicans win. when americans are talking about donald trump, democrats win. and democrats want america talking about donald trump now more than ever. >> right, joe. and as you said a second ago, there's a grim irony for those of us who have been told over the course of seven years, don't talk about him. it will go away. you and mika and everyone who has had reason to talk about donald trump on the show have heard this endlessly. he only thrives because we give him attention. of course a ludicrous argument given the kind of alternative media ecosystem that exists where trump gets his message out that that entire sphere of far right wing, moderate right wing, the echo system that has given him the biggest platform he has, and is connected to tens of millions of americans, people have finally woken up to the notion as this piece suggests that ignoring him doesn't make him go away and to mike bender, the important part of mike bender's piece, which is that the democrats understand now that they need to breakthrough a kind of torper among a lot of potential and past trump, people who voted against donald trump, voted for democrats who assume trump will not be the nominee. they're not focused on the election. whatever it is, they have to make clear that trump is here, almost certain to stay until november. and that as bender's piece shows, his rhetoric is amazingly getting worse, more dangerous, more inciteful, i say inciteful, not inciteful as full of insight, and all of that is getting worse and voters need to understand as early as possible the stakes of the election or democrats are going to be in trouble a year from now. >> and mika, by the way, for those waking up this morning asking what is "morning joe's" word of the day, it's sort of our version of wordle, torper. by john heilemann, has brought to the table. and we are most grateful that he has. >> right. >> a state of mental would that be torpor? >> laziness. >> this is my word for life. i love it. >> molly jong-fast, the option for democrats here it seems to me, there's always the issue, we don't want to go negative. we don't want to go ugly. when you're running against donald trump, just go real. just use what material donald trump has provided and put it in proper context, and give people information about what will be happening if he gets another term. i think that would be enough, and i think democrats need to pound away at the dangers of donald trump, using donald trump's own words against him. and actions. >> oh, no question, and i think that, look, there's a vacuum, when main street media does not cover a subject, there becomes a vacuum and trump and his people get into social media, and they spread stuff, and if there isn't a fair amount of debunking, you will see these lies go again and again and again. >> talk about spreading, for the many trumps, tuberville, you know, the new speaker of the house. they are all many trumps, all republicans caught in a cult that honestly, republicans that you know in your life, you can't recognize these republicans. this is all out there, and it's accurate information that can be used against him, that trump has amassed over the course of four to eight years, and he has given the democrats on a silver platter, take it and run with it. >> yes, and i think that the white house is seeing more and more that they need to fill the vacuum, that they need to push back, that they need to, you know, they were aggressively boring and it worked for a long time. the problem is they weren't able to claim their accomplishments if they were aggressively boring, and they weren't able to really shift the narrative, and now they really need to do that. they need to claim, you know, inflation reduction. they need to claim that victory. there are a lot of victories, you know, right now, inflation is going down. they're going to have to be the ones to do it and fill that void. >> they have a lot of material. >> they have a lot of material. you know, the thing is trump winning in 2016. we have talked about the insights that he drew. we haven't looked at how lucky he actually was that in the primary, his main opponent was jeb bush. in the general, it was hillary clinton. the bush/clinton family had been in the white house for 20 of 28 years at that point. it was hard not to blame every problem working class americans had on the clinton/bush dominance. he had that, so i said that to say, jonathan lemire, in 2016, the election really wasn't albany donald trump, it was a referendum on hillary clinton. in 2020, the election wasn't about joe biden, it was a referendum on donald trump. and joe biden, again, was the one candidate that could lay low enough idealogically, so trump couldn't land a punch on him, and now we go into '24, and the biden white house, tell me about your reporting. how much did they recognize that '24 needs to be a referendum on trump once again. his words on abortion, his words on violence, his words on terminating the constitution et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, how big is that going to play? >> it's going to play a significant role. that's been the game plan all along. they spent a few months making the positive case for the economy. hasn't worked, hasn't translated yet in the polls, anyway, and a lot of democrats were getting antsy about it. urging them to draw conflict with donald trump. they have begun to do that. that he is going to be the center piece going forward, and connected to the piece in the "times" today about democrats wanting more coverage than trump. and the white house tried to ignore trump for a long time. and president biden wouldn't say trump's name for almost a year. connected to the idea, they want more coverage of trump, is mike bender. this reporting that we had a few weeks ago, there's a belief among democrats that donald trump at this point is a name in the headlines, he's a picture on tv. but americans, especially those who aren't paying attention just yet haven't listened to him in a long time. once they do, once they start hearing from him again, next year when he starts delivering high profile speeches, they're going to be stunned by the rhetoric the and incendiary plans for the future. do people around donald trump think the same? are they worried that they could turn off sort of swing votrs? but they think it's worth it because they could drive up turn out from his base. >> the idea that less trump is the best trump is something democrats and republicans agree on. trump has gotten criticism for not campaigning heavily. part of that is his team knows he's better, the public views him better when he's not in the headlines every single day. as the campaign gets closer, though, i don't think that's going to be much of an issue. we have seen trump's aggressiveness escalate to each successive campaign as the stakes get higher and higher. he's prone to become more and more combative. heading into this election, facing 91 felony charges, and the prospect of not just becoming a two-time loser, but historic two-time loser, one other republican in the history of the party has ever lost two presidential nominations. >> there's so much to work with. i mean, where do you begin is the problem. michael c. bender, thank you, molly jong-fast, thank you as well. we hope you have a great holiday. coming up, here's something to be thankful for this thanksgiving. falling pricing, steve rattner joins us with charts on how americans are saving on everything from food to flights this holiday season. 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message. you know, this is one of the most moving times of the year for me. >> so exciting. >> for you too. >> the comcast commerce tree going up outside of 30 rock, and of course the comcast commerce tree put up for all good little boys and girls to run around wildly, be september up into the spirit of taking and pulling their mothers and fathers into the nbc experience store. >> where you can get a "morning joe" mug. >> a lot of "morning joe" merch. do they have "morning joe" merch there. i doubt it. steve rattner, in a darkened corner. they have a little box and every one of the mugs, you know, chipped and broken. speaking of the southwest corner of the "morning joe" studios, high atop 30 rock. we're going to get to your charts in a second. there's something so deeply fascinating about the state of the economy and america's perception of the economy, and just how much disinformation can actually move americans that they, are you going to believe me or your lying eyes, they believe their lying eyes. americans, front page of the "new york times," americans say the economy is bad. they're spending begs to differ. a disconnect looms in the psyche of voters. we have been talking about this for a while and "the new york times" obviously stealing your idea on charts, and we really need to talk to them about that. but they have charts showing just how well the economy is doing, and yet, the disinformation coming from certain news sources driving those numbers way down because, of course, if you have republicans who are making more money than they have ever made in their lives and they're watching certain news networks, they're going to tell pollsters, the economy is doing terrible but 80% of americans, their situation is pretty good. >> people say their situations are good, but nonetheless, the approval ratings for the handling of the economy, right track, wrong track numbers looks into the future about where they think things are going are deeply pessimistic. along the way, they are spending money, and actually doing better with inflation coming down as i can show you in the context of thanksgiving and the holiday shopping. >> i'd love to see that. >> so let's take a look at the cost of a thanksgiving this year. so 72% of americans according to a recent survey, thought the cost of thanksgiving would actually be higher this year. in fact, the cost of thanksgiving, according to the farm bureau and bureau of labor statistics is going to come down slightly. it's going to go from 6405 last year, to $61.71 this year. that is the national average. now, in fairness, we did have a runup in the kind of covid era. it was down as low as $49. still, this is good news, a surprise to americans who think prices are just going up. another way to look at this is in terms of how much work you have to do to pay for that. $61.17 thanksgiving. and the answer is less work than any year in modern history except for the three around covid. it took 2 hours and 40 minutes of work to pay for thanksgiving down here. we're down to two hours and six minutes at the moment. relative to what people are making, thanksgiving is getting less expensive. >> you're able to buy the meal, and you still got to get there if you're visiting your family, what are you finding in terms of travel costs? >> that's another pleasant surprise people have, which is that travel costs have come down a lot. obviously gasoline spiked, very upsetting to americans, most of them who do drive somewhere or another. gas has come down, down, down, and now gas is 5% lower than it was a year ago, and, again, relative to wages, which is this gray line, it's essentially unchanged. if you look at gas prices over the last 40 years, and adjusted for inflation, they're only about average now. that may surprise americans, but that's true. even better news, if you're flying to grandma's house, it is actually going to be cheaper in actual terms than it was a year ago. air fare is below where they were back in november of '19, and so that is good news for travelers as well. >> there are a few people who have gotten their christmas shopping done already. >> are you one of them? >> i did. i always get it done before thanksgiving. is that weird? >> that's impressive. >> i need to get it done. so are we going to see like massive, massive costs at christmas when you're trying to buy presents, clothes, gift certificates or is there going to be some respite for shoppers during the holidays? >> yes, mika, good news on prices. the prices for a lot of things people buy are coming down this year compared to last year. again, you start with people, average wage up 4.4%. all of these different categories are going to cost less relative to wages, and in most cases, less in absolute terms than they cost last year. smartphones, towels and sheets, appliances, tvs, all of these things down, anywhere from 2 1/2 to 12%, and again, for some of these things, it's a return from covid increases. but interestingly, for electronics like television sets and computers. those prices also went down last year. and smartphones have gone down for two straight years. much lower prices for the kinds of things people often by around this time of the holiday, and this lastly, this doesn't count discounting, and you're going to see, we believe we're going to see a lot of discounting, inventories are pretty full. sales are a little bit slow. so you can see discounts as high as 35% on toys, 30% on electronics. things like that. and so also good news for holiday shoppers. >> maybe in some ways, the way the economy feels will catch up with the data that we're seeing. "morning joe" economic analyst, steve rattner, thank you very much for your charts. have a great thanksgiving. always good to see you. and coming up, we'll get the latest from tel aviv on the tentative agreement between israel and hamas to free dozens of hostages. plus, deputy national security adviser jon finer discusses what role the white house played in negotiating the deal. you're watching "morning joe." we're back in just one minute. hmmm... can this be more, squiggly? perfect! so now, do you have a driver's license? oh. what did you get us? with the click of a pen, you can a new volkswagen at the sign, then drive event. hurry in to lease a new 2023 all-electric id.4 for zero down, zero deposit, zero first month's payment, and zero due at signing. limited inventory available. it's the top of the second hour, welcome back to "morning joe," jonathan lemire and john heilemann are still with us. the breakthrough deal between israel and hamas to release dozens of hostages. both sides have agreed to pause the fighting for four days. during the time, hamas will free 50 women and children who were kidnapped during the october 7th terrorist attack. in exchange, israel will release 150 palestinian prisoners. more humanitarian aid will also be allowed to enter gaza. while the israeli government has published a list of prisoners being considered for release, there is no word on who hamas will set free. leaving the families of hostages both fearful and hopeful at the same time. nbc news chief international correspondent keir simmons is in tel aviv with the latest. >> reporter: it took nine hours for the israeli government in a series of meetings into the early hours of the morning, they finished at 3:00 a.m., to agree to this deal that will see 50 hostages released initially in waves over a period of a humanitarian pause of four days. and 150 palestinian prisoners, mostly male, but including women and teenagers, released by israel. it would seek humanitarian aid, maybe three to 400 trucks entering gaza, and that is likely to include fuel. it's also been agreed that drones will not fly over gaza during the period of the pause in fighting. prime minister netanyahu pushing through this agreement despite the opposition of right wing members of his government saying that this short pause does not mean an end in the war, though part of the agreement is that if it can continue if it works each day that the pause is extended another ten hostages will be released, and more palestinian prisoners. so this is a very important moment, the biggest breakthrough in diplomacy since the october 7th terror attacks that killed 1,200 here in israel and the air strikes, and the ground invasion, and the fighting in gaza that has led now, according to the gazan health ministry, that is run by hamas, now, more than 14,000 dead, including as we've seen from the images, many thousands of children according to the gazan health ministry. it is going to be a brief pause, but the qataris who helped mediate all of this are hoping that it will begin a kind of political trust that might see some kind of light at the end of the tunnel in this conflict. the biden administration saying that they are thanking the qataris andhe egyptians for their mediation, as well as israel's prime minister netanyahu. prime minister, president biden, and first lady jill biden saying they have had the hostages in their hearts throughout this process. >> all right. thank you so much, keir. let's bring in the president emeritus of the council on foreign relations, richard haass, and former nbc news tel aviv bureau chief martin fletcher. we had earlier admiral james stavridis on talking about how he celebrated this hostage release at the same time militarily, he understood how this had to be a very bitter pill to swallow for leaders of israel's military. i do want to read something from the "wall street journal" editorial page also balancing these two realities, conflicting realities. during the cease fire israel will allow more fuel and aid into gaza, the pause might extend longer if hamas gives up more hostages. the deal shows the moral gulf between the two sides. hamas kidnapped israeli children as young as nine months to use as hostages and jihadist who have been arrested and convicted in fair trials for their imes. israel takes military risks to save its citizens. hamas risks palestinian civilians to save itself. martin, you can speak so personally to this. talk about, though, again, the two conflicting realities that israel is dealing with now, and sadly will be dealing with for years to come. >> well, yes, i guess i am dealing with it personally too in a sense. israel is going through like a manic-depressive stage, mixing joy and sadness. joy at the knowledge that some people are coming home, quite a lot of people coming home, 50 or so. and another 190, still as hostages, and as you mentioned, the personal issue. my family, as you know, has had members killed and taken hostages, my wife's family. we are hoping among these hostages released in the next 24, 48 hours will be several members of our family, including the 3-year-old baby. you know, yahil and her brother, 8 years old, and other female members from our family. seven of our family are hostages. we're hoping three or four will be coming out in this exchange. one hopes so. again, this manic-depressive thing is not a time to celebrate. it's the beginning of a very long journey. it's a significant step, this hostage release, if and when it happens, but it's a limited release. the first step in the long journey. this is going to take many months. so people, maybe a year or longer before the men are released. the young men and the soldiers. men and women soldiers are released. significant, but limited move in the next couple of days. >> richard haass, it's john heilemann here, i'm curious to pick up on what martin was saying, for people waking up and learning this news, can you talk about martin said this is a significant step but it's just one step in a long series of steps. can you give us just a kind of 30,000 foot view of what this means in the context, not just of this moment, but of the days, weeks and months ahead in this conflict? >> look, this was a difficult decision, john, as everyone said for the israeli government to pause military operations in order to get the hostages out. i think the israeli government had no choice. we've almost got a hostage first reality in israel since the government is seeing as having let down the israeli people on october 7th. as difficult as the decision was, they've got far more difficult decisions to come. one is after this pause, how does israel pursue the war against hamas in southern gaza. we have a concentration of hamas fighters, terrorists, if you will, and the bulk of the population are in southern gaza. does israel continue bombing, continue as a result, causing civilian casualty on a large scale. does israel take a slower, much more low key, pinpointed approach, which could mean this could go on for months or years. is there any more thought given to what's still going to be an israeli occupation. is there going to be a larger policy towards the palestinians. none of that, the israeli government admits, it doesn't have any idea on what comes after. the fact that martin said. really interesting point. this could go on for days or weeks or months or possibly a yea that's why hamas took the hostages in the first place, to give them control over what happens over time. it raises the question, how does israel pursue a policy of quote, unquote destroying or eliminating hamas, at the same time, it needs to maintain an indirect dialogue with hamas through qatar. so, again, as welcome as this is, as significant this is, a lot bigger stuff still awaits. >> the white house is definitely welcoming the hostage release deal, which is expecte include some of the americans who are being held captive in gaza. in a statement, president biden thanked the leaders of egypt and qatar for helng negotiate the terms, adding that he'll be staying in close contact with everyone involved to ensure the deal is carried through. biden added the safety of the hostages and is his highest priority, writing in part, quote, today's deal should bring home additional american hostages, and i will not stop until they are all released. biden administration officials tell "politico" there's more work to do, but that the deal is, quote, vindication. u.s. officials also stressed the deal could still fall apart and that nothing is final until the hostages are brought home and the guns go silent. and that is the friction there, jonathan lemire, because israel is committed to decimating hamas. they have a lot of good reason for that. and statement, the families are pressuring netanyahu and the israeli government to take deals, take deals, take deals, and that's what joe biden is navigating as he helps try and get solutions here. >> this deal came out because of the quiet pressure put forth by the biden administration and the president himself since the early days of the conflict, and intense domestic pressure that netanyahu faced in israel from particularly the families of those being held hostage. there is a sense as we reported of some satisfaction from the biden administration. their approach is working. they recognize they have a long way to go. this is a good news story that the hostages are coming home. there are concerns about what hamas will do during the pause, if things can escalate. >> where are they? how many are there? >> there's a total of 240. officials are candid, they don't know the locations of all of them. there is a concern during the pause of the fighting when meeting has the ability to come to gaza. we have seen the images of the devastation. that may further inflame the region. let's turn now to white house principle deputy national security adviser jon finer, is there anything new to report on this deal on the potential of 50 or more hostages coming home and where are the others? ? >> well we expect this deal to be implemented over the course of the next 24 hours as you know and as you have reported. it will play out over a period of four days, a set of hostages being released each day. we expect it to be women and children. a number of americans being released. obviously a result of very intensive, quiet, behind the scenes diplomacy. it was a pragmatic decision meant to saver the lives of people in this awful situation. it's a positive development. >> it's not done yet. we're all obviously as you are on the edge of our seats, wait to go see if this can actually be carried out. what do you -- what other contingencies are in this deal that perhaps can give insight, reassurance or much needed hard information for other families of hostages as to the locations, and also the physical, the medical status of the remaining hostages. >> i'll leave it to the parties themselves to spell out the full details. what i can tell you is because this deal will involve much less fighting, a degree of calm in gaza that has not been present now for many weeks. the rest of the international community is going to take advantage, to make sure humanitarian assistance gets into gaza. that's been a high priority for president biden, as has the hostage deal since the beginning of the conflict, and so because it will be easier to distribute aid with less fighting on the ground, we're going to make sure as much gets in as possible, we're expect ago surge of the humanitarian relief for the people of gaza during this period of time. >> jonathan lemire here. talk to us about the concerns that this pause in fighting could be broken not by the israelis but hamas who are still, of course, launching some strikes, lobbying missiles over the border. if there were to be stray violence, how to play out, if there is, you know, if there is some attacking the next couple of days. >> that's obviously something that we're quite concerned about, there's, to say the least, not a lot of trust for hamas among the government of israel or among the u.s. government either. hamas is the entity in the deal that has asked for quiet. that has asked for the pause. so if it breaks that pause, it will be undermining the negotiation it made or the benefit it perceives it got. so our expectation, and what we will be putting pressure on is for both sides to implement the deal as it was drawn up. as you say, it was precarious, and it's going to play out over a number of days, and we'll be doing everything we can to keep it on track and move forward. >> white house deputy national security adviser jon finer. thank you very much for the update. joe. richard haass, you've talked about, again, how there's not an end date for this. i'm curious, how do you think this pause is going to impact america's allies view of this ongoing war, and also, importantly, americans' view of it? will this bring a little bit of political breathing space to the biden administration and its support of israel, trying to root out and destroy hamas? >> absolutely, joe. it's a bit of a respite. i think you'll see a calming down, at least for the near term of open ended complete cease fire, a temporary cease fire, so it i think it lowers the temperature all around. but it's temporary. it's welcome, given what we have gone through whether it's on campuses, the street, the u.n. and elsewhere. i think it's good. i do think we could see a revival of it, depending upon if and when israel is renewing a military operation in the south against hamas, which causes civilian casualties inevitably and so far. it's not more than that. i don't mean to rain on this, this was an important accomplishment. this doesn't change the fundamentals, and indeed, it probably stretches out the crisis. it reinforces the initial decision to take hostages, reinforces the sense that they're valuable. the idea of chips on the table. it means to me they're going to play this probably slowly. it gives them a degree of leverage or control over how this plays out. >> john heilemann, i'm curious politically for the biden administration how the slowing down of this war plays out for the biden administration. it seems to me that if it does slow down, if israel stops the aerial bombardment, if israel starts doing, again, sort of a slower approach to this, whether that doesn't get this war off the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth page, "the new york times," "wall street journal," "washington post," and also, i mean, this sounds bizarre, but it is a new political reality. if it doesn't also get it off young voters' tiktok feeds. >> yeah, well, look, joe, i mean, the only way to have this conversation is to take out your views about whether israel is right or wrong. how they're conducting their campaign against hamas's right or wrong. you want to talk about the politics of this year. there's no normative judgments i'm saying here. i will say two things, one of them is there's very little up side in this war for joe biden. there's not a world in which joe biden is going to be -- is going to get a bunch of political kudos from people outside those who are already committed. joe biden fans, we have seen again and again on this issue and the issue of ukraine that the world -- the international community, foreign policy experts, others say joe biden has done a great job in ukraine. some say a great job in israel, that has not rebounded to his benefit. that's the first thing. having it off the first page is a good thing in that sense. more importantly, the thing you just said, there's a huge benefit to joe biden if there's a cessation, a pause, the longer the better from the standpoint of his base. if there's a cessation of a pause of the violence in gaza, there's a benefit in the sense that right now, the main political impact of this conflict is to dampen enthusiasm among voters he must have in 2024. you mentioned young voters, there's one young cadre. people on the left side of the democratic base, progressive groups, that have been viciously critical, sometimes to the point of anti-semitism of israel. it is a thing that has done him no good with voters who, whatever you think of their views on this topic, he's going to have to get the voters to vote for him a year from now, and is only depressed that sense of democratic enthusiasm and unity in that side of the party. getting this thing off the front page and moving towards something where there's less violence, less death. civilians in particular is only good for joe biden in terms of trying to pull together that democratic base that he needs to beat donald trump. >> and martin fletcher, on what planet is that possible given the situation right now that israel is facing? >> well, the pause, the maximum pause the israeli government has said would be ten days. the deal right now, as we know, is a four day's pause, which will get the release of about 50 israeli prisoners and the release of 150 palestinians in israeli jails. the israeli government has instructed that the pause will not last longer than ten days. so get it off the front pages. hopefully a lot of good will happen during that pause. it is going to be a maximum of ten days. at the same time, there's the advantage of israel which means that they can continue going through the buildings in the areas where they now have control over, looking for tunnels and looking for weapons. there's a slight military advantage for both sides. in terms of president biden and the front page of the united states newspapers, ten days it appears is the maximum, and the war will go on says israel's prime minister. >> richard haass, and martin fletcher, john heilemann, thank you as well. we hope you have a happy, healthy holiday. still ahead on "morning joe," we discuss president biden's reelection campaign, amid new polling showing a slump with younger voters. plus, a look at the republican presidential primary. it appears nikki haley's rising poll numbers are creating intense divisions insides detan sis campaign. we'll explain that next on "morning joe." 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endorsement comes weeks after iowa's republican governor did the same. on social media yesterday, trump down played the significance of their endorsement saying they wouldn't save desantis from losing in iowa. despite the endorsements, there are growing signs of frustration, and even anger among members of the ron desantis' team as the florida governor struggles to gain traction. leaders of desantis' never back down super pac met privately last tuesday to work on a plan to fight back against nikki haley's recent rise in the polls. the meeting didn't go as planned with two members of the desantis super pac turning on each other, nearly coming to blows, that's according to a source who was inside the room. the infighting highlighting an escalation in the long running war between political operatives and desantis's inner circle over who's to blame for the governor's failure to compete effectively with donald trump. like why are they fighting with fists? what's going on in the republican party? there is just pitiful. joining us now, a member of the "new york times" editorial board mara gay and cofounder and ceo of "all in together," lauren leader. we've had fighting on capitol hill. we've got fighting within campaigns now coming to blows, really, lemire, is that what you're hearing? >> there's tension in the room. it's reflective of just the extraordinary frustration but what a failure the desantis campaign has been so far. will this help in iowa, perhaps, the endorsement there, governor reynolds as well. he has put all the chips on the table. he has to win or do well in iowa to have viability going forward. he's well down in the polls, and it seems like there's some coalescing around nikki haley as the trump alternative. >> as they fight it out, mara gay, there's talk that maybe democrats want to see more trump out there, show him for what he is as opposed to last time around where i think a lot of media organizations were criticized for carrying his speeches live, taking him on interviews all the time. we did it for sure. we invited other candidates to do the same. maybe it is different this time because he shows himself and we have seen the impact of his actions. >> that's right. you know, there was somebody who in our coverage in the "new york times" about this phenomenon, likened it, i loved the quote, likened the dynamic of americans not really remembering how terrible trump was as president to a bad relationship where kind of the toxic relationship, the more distance you get from it, the more you kind of forget how terrible and toxic it was, and so her idea was, well, we need to remind americans of that. i think there's been so much discussion about joe biden's numbers, the president's numbers, understandably really being underwater that, you know, the reality is that the republican party has reason to fear donald trump as the nominee because he has been a loser for them. >> right. >> add that to it. >> and they know that. >> joe. they certainly know that. and, please, find me a president that has joe biden's record, not only an off year election but an off, off year election. won in '20, won in 21, won in '22, won in '23. something obviously donald trump didn't do. his party lost every year he was president. certainly not something that barack obama did. his party faced just disaster in both of his off year elections. certainly not something that george w. bush did. the house turned over to nancy pelosi in 2006. you can go all the way back. reagan had horrible midterms. all of these political giants. lbj, not joe biden. not joe biden, i mean, joe biden won in '20. joe biden's party won in '21. joe biden's party won in '22, and joe biden's party won in '23. and lauren leader, all of this is a really big wind up to say that donald trump is toxic, as "the new york times" reporting says today, he is a one-man get out the vote political operation for democrats, and especially, and i want you to speak to this especially, these polls showing that young voters are going to vote for donald trump really do make me laugh out loud because this time next year, young voters across america are going to hear donald trump hundreds and hundreds of times in the last few weeks of the campaign saying he's the guy that, quote, terminated roe v. wade. he's the guy that forced 10-year-old girls who were raped by illegally immigrants to flee the state. he's the guy that took the freedom from women away to make choices over their lives that they have had for half a century. >> i mean, it's diminishing returns. it's been diminishing returns for trump since he was elected. that's been consistent. the media question is an interesting one. there's this case that the democrats want to continue prosecuting. it has been a successful strategy to be running against trump in the last cycles because he is so gavrl national security advisering -- galvanizing in terms of the backlash vote. there is another side which affects the republican primaries, the outside coverage he gets relative to the other candidates, and we'll all come back to share with you some more. we have been looking at nikki haley and how much fair coverage she's getting in the context of this. there is evidence that the more times a candidate's name is mentioned in the media, it does benefit them. so it's a delicate balance, right. how much does his constant coverage just keep him constantly as this sort of front of mind for the voters, versus the reality which is that he has repealed abortion rights. he is repellant to women in the suburbs, he is repellant to communities of minority americans. >> and apparently repellant to winning. >> and apparently repellant to winning. >> it's really remarkable. i think the democrats have historically been successful running against him. it's a more complicated picture this time when it comes to the media. >> i feel like for some, you know, trump republicans who really love it, and nothing is going to change. but maybe moderates and those on the fence, seeing them might be exhausting. i would be just exhausted by it. >> that's what the biden campaign has been betting on since day one, the people are fed up with it. and when they get into the voting booth and it's a binary choice between trump or biden, the independent swing voters who decide elections. >> who's going to get us to the future. >> will not check donald trump's name. to joe's point about the young voters, they are not going to break for trump. the risk is they could stay home, and biden needs the votes, how do you see the landscape? >> i think it's a real danger sign for joe biden. those voters are not going to vote for donald trump, but i think, you know, even as the president has a lot to be proud of, especially today with the pressure that the white house helped implement to get these hostages home, which is great, and we just pray that all goes smoothly, you know, there are a lot of americans, young people, minorities who are at home saying what has he delivered for the base here. and that is actually the conversation that's going on at a lot of thanksgiving dinner tables. you have a lot of young people who are deeply in debt with student loans. there's affirmative action that has been overturned. roe v. wade. so there's a lot, actually, that young people are angry about. they can't afford the cost of housing and, you know, inflation has hit them hard, too, because they're not earning even what their parents did. so i think that the president's got to give them a reason to turn out. and even if that's just to say we're going to do more in the next term, there has to be something other than i'm not donald trump because young people may not wait in line, and go out and vote, especially in states -- you have to think about a state like georgia. it may not necessarily be easy for people to vote. you're talking about inner cities, wait times can be very long. it shouldn't be that way. he has to do more than just count on donald trump as the boogeyman. >> mara brings up a great point, the danger is two-fold. it's one that these voters, young voters just like the republican voters in the suburbs, just like progressive voters, just like people of color stay home. that's the danger for both sides. i also want to say, though, that we do talk when we speak of younger voters and it's clueless in a sense. we talk about just social issues. reminds me of when the log cabin republicans started up, and even i was going, what's this, come on. there are no gay people who are republicans. this was back in the 1990s. hispanics only care about immigration issues or young people only care about -- no, it is the mistake both parties make, and i must say, democrats, mara, are more prone to making this mistake, thinking gay voters only care about gay issues. they don't have a life. they don't have a job. they don't pay taxes. they aren't part of the economy. they don't care about inflation. no, that's obviously not true. democrats got that wrong. they've gotten hispanic voters. they care about the economy, they care about small business. they care about et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, and it's the same thing about young voters. i can't emphasize what you said enough about this economy, this economy disproportionately hurts americans i think under 35, under 40 who can't afford their first home, who really can't afford to live the type of life that their parents lived, who see themselves falling further and further behind every single week. and they hear us talking about how great the economy is, and what i hear an awful lot, and i know you hear an awful lot. i hear younger americans saying, i'm not seeing that. i can't even afford to rent a house let alone buy one. >> yeah, that's it. i mean, i would put myself in that category, honestly. it's very difficult, and i would also just say that, you know, the lack of real competition in american democracy at this point is a problem. because, you know, if those voters are looking at their choices as either donald trump or joe biden, and that's what the choices seem to be at the moment, the option is clear, but they're being asked to swallow a whole lot. >> yeah. >> and so there's no real alternative that's saying, you know, hey, i will attend to your needs, the democratic party has essentially, i believe, for many years now, and this is not a new phenomenon, it has taken the votes for granted of both black people, people of color in general, and young people. that hasn't changed, and as these numbers really start to deteriorate for joe biden, you would hope there would be more attention there. >> mara gay, lauren leader, thank you both very much for being on this morning. coming up, with just under six weeks left in 2023, oh, my god, we're looking to the world ahead in 2024 with deputy editor of "the economist." we'll break down the important themes and events that will play a big part in the coming year. nikki haley's poll numbers are on the rise. in new hampshire, nikki haley's polling is second place, despite making the mistake of doing some totally unscripted crowd work at a rally in the town of hookset. >> hi sweet girl, how are you? >> good. >> i love your hat. >> thank you. thank you. one of your guys gave it to me for free. >> i want you to tell me which guy that wa because we don't do things for free, although you look cute in it. >> i see him right now. he's probably hiding. >> let that girl run for president. t. move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. the promise of this nation should extend to all from new york to new mexico, from alaska to alabama. but right now, people like you are losing their freedoms. some in power are suppressing voting rights. banning our kids books from libraries and attacking our right to make private health care decisions. we must act now to defend these freedoms and protect our democracy. and we can't do it without you. we are the american civil liberties union, and we're asking you to join us in protecting our democracy at the national level and in communities like yours. call or go online to myaclu.org to become a guardian of liberty today. your gift of just $19 a month. only $0.63 a day will help ensure that together we can continue to fight for the freedoms of all americans, no matter your zip code. if you also believe in the right to vote, the right to free speech, the right to learn, the right to bodily autonomy. please join us now. these are your fundamental rights that people are playing with. and so you need to get involved, because if you don't, then someone else is going to decide whether or not you get to choose what happens to your own body. so please call or go to myaclu.org and become an aclu guardian of liberty for just $19 a month. when you use your credit card, you'll receive this special we the people t-shirt and more to show you're part of a movement to protect the rights of all people. we can't make systemic change in the way that we want to doing it by ourselves. we have to work together because we the people, means all of us. from sea to shining sea. so please call or go online to myaclu.org to become a guardian of liberty today. welcome back a live look at the capitol as the sun comes up over washington. the global state of democracy will be front and center in 2024 as more people than ever head to the polls next year. that analysis from the economist is part of its new, the world ahead edition, the special year end issue examines the important themes, trends and events that will shape the coming year. and joining us now, deputy editor of the economist, tom standich, also editor of "the world ahead," this year feature. issue one is votearama, tell us how the economy is looking at this globally. >> we have crunched the numbers. there are going to be something like 75 elections taking place in 2024, and they will be happening in countries, these are national elections, i should say. they will will happening in countries with a total population of 4.2 billion people, and there's a lovely chart that shows you. the big circle on the right is india, the biggest democracy in the world is having an election next year, and the second biggest, the united states, and the third biggest, indonesia. you get 4.2 billion people affected by these elections. the world population is 8.1. that's the first time that has happened. however, there is a big difference in quality and quantity. an awful lot of voting is going to be happening. that's not the same as democracy. there's more to democracy than voting. and many elections are sham elections, probably the most obvious example will be russia. similarly, in se, rwanda, going to be up for reelection next year. last time he was reelected with 99% of the vote. something similar is expected to happen in 2024. a reminder for those who live in democracies, not to take that for granted and support countries fighting for democracy, like say ukraine. >> let's whip through these then. theme two is america's global choice, and i believe that applies to theme three as well. >> yes, essentially of all the elections, i think the ones that are most consequential will be looking at the taiwanese election at beginning of the year. they will be looking at a choice between more pro china friendly candidate and a more independent candidate. but at the end of the year you have the u.s. election and that will have the biggest global consequences and really cast a shadow over the whole of 2024 because it will come down to a handful of probably voters in swing states, probably a few tens of thousands like last time with implications of billions around the world. if donald trump wins, he does things like pull the u.s. out of nato, withdraw support for ukraine. there's also a theory that the next u.s. president elected in 2024 may be the president that has to deal with china in a possible conflict over taiwan. there is this theory that it may make sense for taiwan, for china to make a move on taiwan towards the end of the 2020s before america has had a chance to build up forces in the asia pacific. so this is a very very consequential election in lots of ways, and people always watch american elections closely, but this time around, even more so than usual. >> you know, tom, i want to go to theme five. you look over the past generation, we've gone from george h.w. bush's new world order to the turn of the century a world order where america was supreme, to a multi polar world order, to now as you say, most disturbingly i think over the past 30, 40 years, you call it a multipolar disorder. we have a war breaking out in the middle east, a war in europe, and the threat of a war breaking out in asia. >> indeed, so we're calling this multipolar disorder. the general consensus is the post war uni polar moment where america was the only super power has come to an end. we have assertive russia and china clearly but we also have the middle powers, places like iran and turkey and saudi arabia have more influence than they have ever will before, and to some extent, they are able to play off the great powers against each other, and that means we're heading towards a world with probably a lot more chaos, disorder, conflict, another place you could have mentioned is the sahel region, passing through african countries that have had a coup, and things are only getting worse. >> some of these conflicts are fueled by the access to energy, and one of the themes here is the new energy geography. tell us what that means, and why that's going to be only more important going into the future? >> i think one of the other big things that's happening now is that people have recognized the importance of the different set of resources to our energy future. so previously we were only really focused on oil and gas and we know which parts of the world you have to go to find those, and america is a big oil producer. you go to the persian gulf, there's other parts of the world that we associate with those resources. what's interesting about the resources we need now, lithium and copper and nickel, they are found in broadly a different set of countries. that redraws the map. it's also a map that's constantly changing, so i think many people may know there's a lot of lithium in chile, for example, but also lithium in rome, ghana has opened the first lithium mine, and a huge amount of lithium was just discovered in the united states. it's not that the map is different. it's that the map is changing, and this is one of the reasons, reshaping geopolitics, reshaping trade because countries, and particularly if we're going to have more tension between the western countries and china, we want to be able to find ways of hold of these resources without depending on chinese supply chains. that's another factor that plays into this sort of increased rivalry and tension. >> all right. "the economist's: world ahead 2024" is available online now. tom, thank you for the preview. up next, a look at how things are shaping up at some of the country's airports on one of the busiest travel days of the year. he hits his mark —center stage—and is crushed by a baby grand piano. you're replacing me? customize and save with liberty bibberty. he doesn't even have a mustache. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ if you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan that's smart now... i'm 65. and really smart later i'm 70-ish. consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. with this type of plan, you'll know upfront about how much your care costs. which makes planning your financial future easier. so call unitedhealthcare today to learn more about the only plans of their kind with the aarp name. and set yourself and your future self up with an aarp medicare supplement plan from unitedhealthcare. liberty mutual customized my car insurance and i saved hundreds. with the money i saved, i started a dog walking business. oh. [dog barks] no it's just a bunny! only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪ c'mon, we're right there. c'mon baby. only pay for what you need. it's the only we need. go, go, go, go! ah! touchdown baby! -touchdown! are your neighbors watching the same game? yeah, my 5g home internet delays the game a bit. but you get used to it. try these. they're noise cancelling earmuffs. i stole them from an airport. it's always something with you, man. great! solid! -greek salad? exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. for people traveling like me. tom costello reports. >> reporter: get moving, america. the clock is ticking. the nation's airports and roads already filling up for the turkey day getaway. >> we are anticipating a smooth ride. >> reporter: on tuesday, heavy rain slowed things down. today, a better forecast. the best time to drive today now till 1 1:00 a.m. the worst times, 2:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. where traffic will be 11% heavier than normal. not everyone hates the traffic. >> i like traveling on thanksgiving a lot. >> reporter: but in the nation's airports -- >> i wish i would have left yesterday or the day before. >> reporter: -- 2.6 million travelers slowly snaked through checkpoints on tuesday, even more expected today. in phoenix and l.a., airport food workers have been on strike. >> we don't want to be replaced with ai and robots. >> reporter: southwest pilots and american flight attendants are threatening to strike but not for several weeks, if at all. >> push through. >> reporter: at chicago o'hare, where united is the biggest carrier, it's a full-court press. united is trusting you guys with aircraft worth tens of millions of dollar, and their passengers, hundreds of them at a time. >> yeah. >> reporter: that's a big responsibility. >> when i train people, i tell them pretend your family is on that plane. >> reporter: lots of families this time of year. in the terminal, united's agents on demand are the latest new thing. >> how can i help today? >> reporter: passengers click the qr code for a video connection. i'm leaving at 2:00 p.m. to washington. i'd love to go closer to 5:00 p.m. is that possible? >> yes. perfect. i have a flight at 5:16 if you like that flight. >> people like to see people, kind of like that human nature and human touch. we still provide that without standing in line. >> reporter: no one likes a line, especially in a weather delay. >> no, we don't. >> live footage from national airport in washington, huge security lines already, not even 8:00 a.m. >> really? two minutes before the top of the hour. nbc's tom costello reporting. make time. pack your patience, lemire. still ahead, we move back to the big story this morning, the tentative deal between israel and hamas to free dozens of hostages. sleep more deeply. and wake up rejuvenated. purple mattresses exclusive gel flex grid draws away heat. relives pressure and 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dual-eligible special needs plan. humana. a more human way to healthcare. people are always asking me two words come to mind for me. one is responsibility, the other is purpose. it's just so inspiring to do research that impacts human lives. stand up to cancer has been a critical partner in advancing research for cancer. cancer research saves lives. so please help us fight in this battle against cancer. you know it's like a russian olive. we are working to free to see who will come back home. it's crazy. we don't have names yet, only speculations that it's going to be a mother and their children. it's tough, very tough. >> have you allowed yourself the think about what you might say to her the first time you see her? >> i don't think i would speak. i would just hold her and hug her. i just want to hold her. >> that is the mother of a hostage who is being held by hamas right now. she may soon see her daughter following a significant diplomatic breakthrough in the middle east. there's a tentative deal to release dozens of people who were captured by the terrorist group more than six weeks ago. we'll get a live report from tel aviv in just a moment. this all comes as the u.s. military is becoming more aggressive in its response to attacks against service members in the wider region. retired four-star navy admiral james stavridis joins us with that and more. also ahead, we'll go through the new donald trump dilemma for democrats. party officials seem to be shifting their strategy on how much coverage they want the former president to receive, not that they have a say. good morning, and welcome to "morning joe." it's wednesday, november 22nd. we begin with that breaking news. israel and hamas agreeing to a deal to release some of the hostages kid named during last month's deadly terrorist attack. qatar, which has been mediating the negotiations, made the announcement last night. the terms of the agreement include a four-day pause in fighting. during that time, 50 women and children will be released in stages. in exchange, 150 palestinian women and children who are being detained in israel will be freed. more humanitarian aid will also be allowed into gaza during the pause in fighting, including fuel trucks. all of this is likely to begin tomorrow. once israeli judges review any potential legal challenges to the prisoner release. prime minister benjamin netanyahu's office confirmed the agreement last night in a statement, explaining that if the pause in fighting is extend ed, an additional ten hostages will be released a day. but netanyahu warns his country's mission is not over, writing, "israel will continue the war in order to return home all of the hostages, complete the elimination of hamas, and ensure that there will be no new threat to the state of israel from gaza." joining us now from tel aviv, nbc news chief international correspondent keir simmons with more. keir. >> reporter: well, it's a sign of the political and national angst here in israel that it took nine hours of meetings of the israeli government for israel to decide that it would sign up to this four-day pause. what we understand about the deal is there will be 50 hostages, women and children, civilians, released in exchange for 150 palestinian women and children released from israeli jails, that there will be a pause in drone flights over gaza, that there will be humanitarian aid, including fuel, maybe 300 to 400 trucks going into gaza. so, the deal is now pretty clear. it's been mediated by qatar and egypt. in the early hours of this morning, president biden praising those two countries, thanking prime minister netanyahu, who pushed through this deal overnight with that message that you described, mika, of saying that just because there's a pause, it won't mean that the war is over, pushing it through with his likud party despite the objections of the right in the israeli government. but as your sound at the beginning of this and our interview showed, for the families, the situation is pretty much the same. they are still waiting, waiting, waiting. we had a chance to speak to someone about a 3 3-year-old israeli hostage, her parents were killed, but the rest of her family just hope she will be released in time for her 4th birthday on friday. take a listen. >> i think about her brother and sister, who both watched their parents be murdered on october 7th, and abigail coming home for them, for the grandparents, for the family, for all of us is that one hope to have her back, embrace her. her birthday is on friday. she's turning 4. and to, like, just imagine that she comes home and is with her family is our light right now in such a very dark and terribly, terribly horrific period. >> reporter: hamas is saying that that pause will begin tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. here. that hasn't been officially announced yet. the israelis are put out a list of the palestinians they plan to release from prison, and it is up to the victims, people who view themselves as victims of those prisoners, to go to the supreme court if they object to those palestinians being released. but it's a moment to reflect, isn't it, that 1,200 israelis and others died in those terror attacks on october 7th, and according to the health ministry controlled by hamas, we are at more than 14,000 people killed in gaza. and right now what we have is a four-day pause in which hamas has attained the release of 150 prisoners. >> nbc's keir simmons, thank you very much. joe, i mean, this deal, it's not perfect, but it provides a tiny glimmer of hope in what has been a brutal six weeks. >> it provides so much hope for israelis that have seen their families kidnapped, thrown into tunnels. and there has been debate in israel over whether this was a deal that was worth giving a terrorist organization, who sees children, some as young as 6 months, seizes them and women, family members, and kidnapped them and threw them under tunnels, all knowing, again, all knowing this day would come. i want to read from the "wall street journal" editorial this morning on the israel-hamas hostage deal. this is what they say. "the hostage deal that israel and hamas reached today is going to -- the life of some 50 israelis, a great relief to the innocents and their families. the cost is a short-term cease-fire that hamas will exploit, and three-quarters of the 236 hostages will remain in terrorist hands. israeli leaders believe the trade is worth it, and that is not our place to second-guess their judgment. in exchange for returning israeli children and women, hamas is set to receive a four-day pause in israeli military operations and the release of about 150 of its under-18 female operatives from israeli prisons. during the cease-fire, israel will allow more fuel and aid into gaza. the pause might also extend longer if hamas gives up more hostages, ten for each additional day. the deal shows the moral gulf between the two sides. hamas kid named israeli children as young as 9 months to use as hostage and spring its jihadists who have been arrested or convicted in a fair trial for their crimes. israel takes military risks to save its citizens. hamas risks palestinian civilians to save itself." let's bring in the former supreme allied commander of nato, james stavridis, a chief international analyst for nbc news. and editor of national security, david road, columnist and associate editor for "the washington post," david ignatius, and the host of "way too early," jonathan lemire. admiral, like the "wall street journal" says, an extraordinarily happy day for israel and these children of israel. let me just ask you as a military commander, what are your concerns? >> number one, the resupply which hamas will take enormous advantage of. they'll bring in ammunition, command and control devices. they'll bring in fuel. all of that is simply unavoidable. number two, it gives a psychological boost to hamas. in other words, they will say in their council of war, look, our plan is working. we gathered up these israeli civilians, and now we'll parcel them out like chips at a casino to get what we want back, which is a break in combat operations. and then thirdly, hamas will use this period of time to move their fighters around through these tunnels. so, i'm absolutely thrilled to see this deal go through as a human being. as a military officer, you have to recognize the downside. i know that the israeli military high command is going to grapple with that. they'll do everything they can to neutralize these factors. they will then continue. joe, i'll close with this. the principal military objective here is rescing hostages, finding and eliminating the top ranks of hamas. but the physical military object ritch those tunnels. 300 milings of these tunnels. it's given hamas its reason to live, its ability. you're showing them now. multiply that by hundreds of miles under gaza itself. the israelis are not going to stop this operation before they eliminate the military capability of those tunnels. so, bottom line for the israeli military, a lot of work ahead. everyone will celebrate, and it's thanksgiving day here in america tomorrow. i think we'll see some hostages come home. but, boy, militarily, it's a tough one. >> militarily, it has to be a tough one. hamas played not only israel but the world from the very beginning. they knew all of this was going to ham. they knew they could go in, rape, burn, slaughter, execute israelis on october the 7th, take hostages, flee back to gaza. they knew before the attacks were launched that they would hide behind civilians, israel would try to bring justice to the people who killed their grandmothers and who shot their children and burned their babies in their cribs, raped their women. hamas knew that israel would then go after them, so they did what hamas always does. they hid behind civilians. hamas also knew before this began that at some point they would strike a deal to give hostages back and do it through qatar. they knew this beforehand. and they knew that israel would have to do it. why? because, well, israelis, like so many others outside of hamas, value life. and so they're going to do it. but make no mistake, hamas knew this was going to happen. they knew this day was coming. and they knew that they would be able to refuel, rearm, reload during any cease-fire that was given to them. so, that, of course, is all balanced, david, with the fact that 50 hostages are going free, 50 families are going to see their children and their mothers, their daughters, their family members again that they never thought they would see again. it's a hell of a balance, but what an extraordinary day for these families. >> it's awful, but it's sort of welcome to the horrific world of hostage taking. hamas is monstrous. the scale of this kid happening, this has never happened, roughly 230 people kidnapped, elderly kid named, this 3-year-old american girl, abigail, who will hopefully be freed as part of this deal. it's horrible. this will benefit hamas militarily in the short term, but i do think hamas will be crushed. i think those tunnels will be destroyed. i've been surprised at the success of the israeli military in terms of north gaza. they've lost dozens of troops. that's terrible price, but hamas has not been putting up this block-by-block resistance that was expected. that's one small positive thing. again, i think on one level, this is a good thing for the biden administration. they pushed hard for this hostage release. and i think in the long term, it will help israel. it was mentioned by keir simmons, our colleague, that, again, the palestinian death toll has reached 14,000. there's an estimated 5,000 palestinian children who have died. so, you know, the region -- the arab street, which is furious and only focuses understandably in some ways on those palestinians, this is a good thing for israel. lastly, this is what happens when the orlando sort of ignores problems and leapts groups like hamas fester. how do we stop this accelerated practice of hostage taking? part of it is eliminating or not allow the sort of radical groups like hamas to have these enclaves, to have areas where they can take hostages. it's a good day, a good small step forward, but a huge challenge remains. >> no doubt about that. david ignatius, you and i have done reporting on how this came together. biden officials last night believing this was proof their approach has been working, applying subtle pressure on israel and of course also within israel, netanyahu getting intense domestic pressure, particularly from the families of the hostages to make some sort of agreement. there were objectionings from military commanders. take us behind closed doors about how this deal came together and what third parties were involved. >> so, jonathan, i wanted to start with the human dimension of this. when you read the testimony of a woman like mayan zin, who has two daughters who have been held, saying, i want to go to gaza to die with them. i can't bear the life that i'm living separated from them. you can't help but rejoice that some of these children and mothers are coming out. it also an extraordinary achievement. people have been working very hard on it. i'm struck by several aspects of it. first, when this war began, israel was just so shocked and stunned by what hamas had done. there was a feeling we have to go all the way, all-out combat. we just have to put the hostages aside in our mind and go after the tunnels, there may be hostages in the tunnels. we just have to pound, pound, pound. and i think week by week, as the hostage families became clearer and louder, as their pictures -- if you travel around tooech, tel aviv, their pictures are everywhere. every settlement has pictures of its hostages displayed. there was a realization for the government that they were going to have to think of a way, as they pursued this war against hamas, to also get hostages out. what they've created in this deal that's interesting is a positive dynamic where the more hostages hamas releases, the longer the pause it will get. and so, in the initial phase, the 50 women and children that hamas actually holds and can identify, can describe each person in detail, will come out over four days. there are another 20 that they think they can get pretty easily. they don't hold them, but they think they can get them in the next few days. so, if they get and release those additional 20, they will get a further pause. there are then another 30 women and children that are going to be harder to get. can they find them and get them out? well, maybe. and then israel holding out the promise, what about male civilians? can you get them? for each of them, we're prepared to add additional pauses, additional humanitarian. so, israel's created a dynamic that's going to put the hostages and their release first. i don't think to speak to the admiral's correct question that israel is any way altering its fundamental determination to destroy hamas' political power but has chosen a route that is going to, to the greatest extent possible, get these israeli citizens and foreigners out if it's possible, if hamas can be convinced to do this more-for-more exchange. >> and of course, admiral, we never know where all of this leads. we never know what the end brings down hamas other than the israelis and others who hate terrorism, continue fighting them. but, you know, the passing of rosalynn carter, of course, brings into sharper focus the legacy of jimmy carter, again, a legacy that, much like truman, will grow through the years with historians, with an extraordinary middle east peace process, the normalization of relations with china, the aiding of afghanistan in beating the soviets, driving the soviets out, the promotion of human rights that eventually led to -- you know, helped lead to the fall of the soviet union and the ramping up of the military in this last year. i say that all to say, when you look back at jimmy carter, a dark mark on his presidents si was the iranian hostage crisis. i must say, looking back, though, all these years later, it's remarkable the restraint jimmy carter showed in not responding to every call for an invasion or turning iran into a parking lot, which, if anybody was around america in 1979, that was the common refrain -- turn iran into a parking lot. destroy them, and if hostages die, hostages die. this cannot stand. and yet i saw a documentary and went away from it going, my god, the restraint he showed, he may be one of the only presidents we've ever had that had the humanitarian instincts to actually save every one of those lives. and that's why what may not make military sense today may make a lot of sense ten years from now. i know i've gone on on a bit about this, but speak to this, if you will, about how everything that seems so clear today may not be so clear even five years from now. >> i'd love to. just one quick note. before the presidency and after the presidency, i think you know this, joe, but he is our naval academy graduate who became president, so all of us annapolis graduates and military naval officers are very proud of jimmy carter, who was a nuclear submariner. and i think we can all agree what an extraordinary post-presidency life, full of character, writing beautiful books, building homes -- so, really a sterling life lived. in terms of the hostage situation, yes, i agree with you, in retrospect, perfectly handled in so many ways. by the way, let's not forget, he did something that the israelis i think may attempt, which is hostage rescue. he launched a hostage rescue attempt that failed. fortunately, the united states military was able to learn lessons from that and pull back from it. but he then pursued the diplomacy that you see occurring right here. to your point, joe, he resisted that urge to simply go in and flatten tehran. by the way, i know david ignatius, having traveled recently in the region, in the immediate aftermath will tell you israelis were saying go into gaza, simply flatten it, destroy the entire thing. they chose not to. they chose to take this path using precision approaches to include special forces. the only reason hamas did not kill 7 million jews on the 7th of october is because they lacked the military capability to do so. israel could have killed 2 million gazans on october 8th, killed them all. they chose not to because that's not who they are. and those, i think, are something we should bear in mind, the false equivalency you sometimes hear. >> admiral stavridis, as you were speaking about the mood in israel, i'm just remembering that i heard, that there was, after october 7th, and continues to this day, a deem rage. it seems everybody in israel knew somebody, knew a family that had been touched by this and lost a person killed or taken hostage. everywhere i went in israel i kept encountering that. and there was a desire to flatten gaza, just to go all out. and i think what we're seeing in these recent days is, as i said earlier, the passion to save the hostages' lives has been competing with this desire to really go after, destroy the power of the enemy. and with this hostage release, israel's decided it's going to pull back, going to slow down its offensive, something that's hard to do in this situation where you have the momentum, you're moving forward, but you say we're going to slow down, create an insensitive to release as many hostages as people. don't think for a moment israel has stopped in their campaign against hamas. i promise you, i talked with israelis yesterday, they still have the most ambitious and intense plans. but they want to get as many israelis as possible out before we get to the end game of this war. >> as we close the conversation here, david, any thoughts, give b everything that has been said? and in this deal, what stands out to you? is there any way of assessing the status of the remaining hostages if the first 50 are released in waves? >> there will be no men. there's ten americans. one whose hand was blown off when a hamas militant threw a hand grenade into a shelter. he was one of the young people at the music festival. i hope he's released. i'm not sure he will be. so, a joyous day for some families but not all the families. so much pain. still ahead on "morning joe," a conversation on donald trump's authoritarian rhetoric and whether bringing more attention to it is the correct strategy for democrats. i have moderate to severe crohn's disease. now, there's skyrizi. ♪ things are looking up, i've got symptom relief. ♪ ♪ control of my crohn's means everything to me. ♪ ♪ control is everything to me. ♪ feel significant symptom relief at 4 weeks with skyrizi, including less abdominal pain and fewer bowel movements. skyrizi is the first il-23 inhibitor that can deliver remission and visibly improve damage of the intestinal lining. and the majority of people experienced long-lasting remission at one year. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections 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in the right amounts, that's all it is. it's so simple and it works. golo was the smartest thing i ever did. you want to be able to provide your child with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future. kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪ we pledge to you that we will root out the communist, marxist, fascist, and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, the threat from outside forces is far less sinister, dangerous, and grave than the threat from within. >> donald trump echoing the words of 20th century authoritarians at a rally earlier this month. joining us now, nbc news national affairs analyst john heilemann, special correspondent at "vanity fair" and the host of "the last politics" podcast, molly john fast, and political correspondent at "the new york times," michael seabender for his latest piece on trump's tilt towards authoritarianism and the concern it's causing among historians and much of the american public. i would see it as a tilt, joe, or completely running straight into it. >> just going to say, you know even on live television the dangers of ever writing anything about donald trump because it's never enough or it's too much. it is never just right. can i get an amen from the reporters area? >> yes, you can. >> michael, let's begin with you, though. your piece obviously started once again a conversation about donald trump again not just -- not just mimicking the words of past authoritarian and fascist leaders but also doing that against a backdrop of violence on january the 6th, doing that against a backdrop of violence by one of his supporters against paul pelosi, doing that against a backdrop of him mocking pelosi, calling for violence against his opponents. all a very toxic mix going into the 2024 election. >> yeah. that's right. kind of what -- we've all known, everyone has known for a while trump has long run as an outrageous candidate, right. he's been willing to say and do things that few in our lifetime have been willing to do and say on a national stage. what strikes me this time, which sparked this article, has been, you know, most of the focus of his attacks, particularly when he started, were foreign remarks. muslim immigrants, hispanic immigrants. the that i think we've seen over the last few campaigns, particularly now, is he's saved some of that most vicious attacks for domestic opponents. and that turn inward comes at a time when he and his allies are coming up with plans to weaponize the department of justice, to surround himself with lawyers in a potential second term that would bless him with his most contentious actions. this piece tried to pull all that together while also showing some of the examples of, you know, of this authoritarian language that he's really been leaning into really for the past year. >> past year. and there are many people who believe it really needs to be discussed. you know, this show got criticized a great deal, especially through 2015, for saying that donald trump could win the republican nomination and for us having him on the show. there has also of course been great criticism of other networks that have allowed him to have town hall meetings. it's interesting. i'm saying this just leading up to an interesting conundrum, john heilemann. "new york times" today, "democrats want trump plastered all over the news." let me read from it briefly here and have you respond. "three years later, after trump left the white house, mr. biden's re-election campaign and democratic officials across the party spectrum have landed on a new solution instead of ignoring donald trump -- more trump, criticizing the news media for giving mr. trump a platform is out. quietly asking networks to coverage. trump rallies is in. find the improbable longing for the former president to gobble up political action again as democrats' yearlong dependence on trump's outrage machine. since his assent," and oh my god, this is true, "mr. trump has been a one-man democratic turnout operation, uniting an otherwise fractured opposition and fueling victories in three straight election cycles." john, we had -- "national review" had a line that i thought summarized it succinctly. when americans are talking about joe biden, republicans win. when americans are talking about donald trump, democrats win. and democrats want america talking about donald trump now more than ever. >> right, joe. as you said a second ago, there's a kind of grim irony of it for those of us who have been told over the course of the last seven years, just don't talk about him. don't talk about him. it will go away. i know you and mika and everyone who's ever had any reason to talk about donald trump on this show, have heard this endlessly over people in the last seven years. he only thrives because we give him attention. if the media didn't cover him, somehow he wouldn't be a powerful force. of course a lewd courthouse argument given the kind of alternative media ecosystem that exists where trump gets his message out, that entire sphere of far right wing, moderate, the echo system that's given him the biggest platform he has and has connected to tens of millions of americans, people have finally woken up to the notion, as this piece suggests, that ignoring him doesn't make him go away. the important part of mike bender's piece, the democrats understand they need to break through a kind of torpor among a lot of potential and past trump -- those who voted against him, vote for democrats, who somehow assume trump won't be the nominee, they're not focused on the election. he won't get there, he'll be in jail. whatever it is, they have to make clear that trump is here, he's almost certainly here to stay until next november, and as bender's piece shows, his rhetoric is amazingly getting worse, more dangerous, more inciteful, not insightful as full of insight, but all that's getting worse, and that voters need to understand as early as possible the stakes of the election or democrats are going to be in trouble a year from now. >> and, mika, by the way, for those waking up this morning asking what is "morning joe's" word of the day, like our version of wordle, torpor. john heilemann has brought it to the table and we're most grateful he has. >> right. >> a state of mental inactivity? would that be torpor? >> and lethargy, slothness, laziness, lack of acute understanding and focus? sure. >> okay. the option for democrats it seems to me, there's always the issue, we don't want to go negative, we don't want to go ugly. when you're running against donald trump, just go real. just use what material donald trump has provided, and put it in proper context and give people information about what will be happening if he gets another term. i think that would be enough, and i think democrats need to pound away at the dangers of donald trump using donald trump's own words against him and actions. >> no question. look, there's a vacuum. when mainstream media does not cover a subject, there becomes a vacuum, and trump and his people get into social media and they spread stuff. if there isn't a fair amount of debunking, we will see these lies go again and again and again. >> talk about spreading, you can cover the mini trumps, tommy tuberville, the new speaker of the house. they're all mini trumps, all republicans caught in a cult that honestly republicans that you know in your life you can't recognize these republicans. this is all out there. coming up, we'll speak to a senior adviser to israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, former ambassador mark regev weighs in on the deal to bring hostages home from gra sa. ally n to support cognitive health in older adults. it's one more step towards taking charge of your health. so every day, you can say, ♪ youuu did it! ♪ with centrum silver. hi, my name is damion clark. if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. all of these plans include a healthy options allowance, a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent, and over-the-counter items. the healthy options allowance is loaded onto a prepaid card each month. and whatever you don't spend, carries over from each month. other benefits on these plans include free rides to and from your medical appointments. and our large networks of doctors, hospitals and pharmacies. so, call the number on your screen now and ask about a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. humana. a more human way to healthcare. - [narrator] what will you do when the power goes out? 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"americans say the economy is bad. their spending begs to differ. a disconnect looms in the psyche of voters." we've been talking about this for a while. and "the new york times" obviously stealing your idea on charts. we really need to talk to them about that. but they have charts showing just how well the economy is doing, and yet the disinformation coming from certain news sources driving those numbers way down because, of course, if you have republicans who are making more money than they've ever made in their lives, and they're watching certain news networks, they're going to tell pollsters and everybody else, oh, the economy is doing horribly, when, in fact, about 80% of americans say their situation is pretty good right now. >> we've talked about that before. there's definitely a disconnect in the economy. people say their situations are good, but nonetheless, as you know, the approval ratings for the handling of the economy look out into the future about where they think things are going are all pretty deeply pessimistic. but along the way, they're spending money and actually doing bet were inflation coming down, as i can show you in the context of thanksgiving and the holiday shopping. >> i'd love to see that. >> so, let's take a look at the cost of thanksgiving this year. 72% of americans, according to a recent survey, thought the cost of thanksgiving would actually be higher this year. in fact, the cost of thanksgiving, according to the farm bureau and bureau of labor statistics goes from 64.05 last year to $61.17 this year. that may seem low to those who live in cities, but that is the national average. in fairness, we had a run-up in the kind of covid era. it was down as low as $49 but still, this is good news. to your point, a surprise to americans who think prices are just going up. another way to look at this is in terms of how much work you have to do to pay for that $61.17 thanksgiving. the answer is less work than any year in modern history except for the three around covid. it took 2 hours and 40 minutes of work to pay for thanksgiving back here. we're down to 2 hours and 6 minutes at the moment. so, again, relative to what people are making, thanksgiving is getting less expensive. >> okay. you were able to buy the meal, maybe, but then you still got to get there if you're visiting your family. what are you finding in terms of travel costs? >> that's another pleasant surprise people will have, which is travel costs have come down a lot. obviously, gasoline spiked, very upsetting to americans, most of whom drive somewhere or other, but gas has come down, down, down, and now gas is 5% lower than it was a year ago. and, again, relative to wages, which is this gray line, it's essentially unchanged. i would also say, if you look at gas prices over the last 40 years and adjust it for inflation, they're only about average now. i know that may surprise americans, but that's true. even better news, if you're flying to grandma's house, it is actually going to be cheaper in actual terms than it was a year ago. air fares are now below where they were in november of '19, so that is good news as well. >> are there people who have gotten their christmas shopping done early? >> are you one of them? >> i do it before thanksgiving. need to get it done. is that weird? >> no. >> are we going to see massive, massive costs at dmas when you're trying to buy presents, clothes, gift certificates? or is there going to be some respite for shoppers during the holidays? >> yes, mika. again, good news on prices. the prices for a lot of things that people buy are coming down this year compared to last year. so, again, you start with people, average wage up 4.4%. all these different categories are going to cost less relative to wages, and in most cases less in absolute terms than they cost last year. smartphones, towels, sheetss, appliances, tvs, all these things down anywhere from 2.5% to 12%. again, for some of these things it's a return from covid increases, but interestingly for electronics like television sets and computers, those prices also went down last year, and smartphones have gone down for two straight years. so much lower prices for the kinds of things people often buy around this time of the holiday. and then lastly this doesn't count discounting, and you're going to see -- we believe we're going to see a lot of discounting, inventories are pretty full, sales are a little bit slow so you could see discounts as high as 35% on toys, 30% on electronics, things like that. so also good news for holiday shoppers. >> yeah, maybe in some ways the way the economy feels will catch up with the data that we're seeing morning joe economic analyst. rob reiner joins us with a new project that asks who killed jfk. 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>> reporter: hi, mika, good morning. a pause in the fighting for thanksgiving morning. hamas saying in the past few hours that the pause will begin at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. we wait for that to be confirmed by others, including the israeli government. the israeli government keeping the biden administration waiting overnight in nine hours of government talks before making its announcement, and then president biden welcoming the announcement, saying in a statement, the first lady, jill and i, have been keeping all those held hostage and their loved ones close to our hearts. coming home, around 50 of the women and children taken in the october 7th terror attack, three americans are expected to be released in the first group as senior administration officials say, including 3-year-old abigail, her family hoping she will be home for her birthday on friday. >> she's turning four and to like just imagine that she comes home and is with her family is -- is our light right now. in such a very dark and terribly, terribly horrific period. >> reporter: here in israel urgent phone calls to families. the mother of 21-year-old mia sham last seen in a hamas propaganda video almost five weeks ago praying she will soon see her daughter in-person. >> how are you feeling this morning? >> shaky. since the moment i woke up. and, you know, it's like -- we are waiting to see who will come back home. >> reporter: president biden thanking mediators in qatar and egypt and israel's prime minister who pushed through the deal in a tense government meeting where he insisted a brief truce would not end the war. and just yesterday fierce fighting, 250 air strikes israel says ahead of the initial four-day humanitarian pause starting tomorrow. in exchange for 50 hostages, 150 palestinian prisoners, including some women and teenagers, will be released by israel. the red cross will be given access to the hostages still held, while humanitarian aid will get to the people of gaza, 300 to 400 trucks a day and fuel. the biggest diplomatic breakthrough since 1,200 were murdered on october 7th and according to the hamas run health ministry more than 14,000 killed in gaza. and this morning so many hostage families hoping the agreement holds. >> are you allowed yourself to think about what you might say to her the first time you see her? >> i don't think i will speak, i will just hold her and hug her and i just want to hold her. >> reporter: and we have had a chance to look through that list of palestinian prisoners who may be released. it turns out they are mostly men, accused or convicted of a range of crimes from throwing stones to attempted murder or making explosives. meanwhile, in the days after this four-day pause, if it is extended, ten more hostages we're told will be released each day. mika? >> nbc's keir simmons live in tel aviv with the very latest. thank you. joining us now senior advisor to israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu mark regev. thank you for joining us. >> good morning. >> can you tell us how close 50 hostages are to being reunited with their families? is this deal still on schedule? any updates to it? >> so farce we know it's on schedule, but obviously the proof of the pudding is in the meeting. we are dealing with a brutal and fanatical enemy and we have to hope but we can't be sure. hopefully we will be seeing people come out in the next few days, by the end of the week we will see people released. that's crucial. and the feeling here is bittersweet, mika, because we're getting 50 peopl out and that's 50 families, but there are also 180 people who are left behind who are still abducted in gaza and we fear for them. and we hope they get out soon and we are committed to achieving their release. >> so can you talk a little bit about the challenges to that? not to get too far ahead of just getting through the next few days, but do we know where the remaining 180 or so are? do we know their condition? are there any contingencies to the deal that would allow you to have access to that information? >> so we have intelligence information that i can't share with you, i apologize. what i can say that i know for a fact, that why did hamas now agree to this release? and the answer is simple, we've been hitting hamas very, very hard, we've been destroying its military machine, we've been eliminating its senior leadership. they have been under very strong military pressure and we've said all along, you will remember we said this at the very beginning of this conflict, we will agree to a cessation of the fighting if hostages are released. they need that time-out now, they are under the pressure, they're desperate for a pause and that's why i think we got our people out now. the 50 that are supposed to come out in the next four days. >> mr. amssador, let's speak about another piece of this which is the pause will allow more humanitarian aid to go into gaza, needed supplies, also fuel, which is something israel had been very reluctant to do for quite some time. speak to us about the state of play when it comes to that. how will this be safeguarded to make sure it gets to people who actually need it in gaza and not members of hamas? >> you raise a very good point because that was one of our concerns all along, that assistance going in that's supposed to reach the people of gaza was going to be stolen by hamas, especially, as you say correctly, the fuel. we were concerned instead of that going to generators that hamas would take it and of course they are the only people there with guns and people can't stand up to hamas in the areas that they control and that would be diverted to hamas's military machine, to its tunnels, missiles and so forth. so of course we're watching events very closely. we want to see humanitarian support reach the people of gaza. we want to expedite that. at the same time we want to have understanding and guarantees, if possible, that that sort of aid only goes to who it's supposed to go to and not to hamas. we will be following now -- we are as today and we will during a ceasefire, very closely what happens to the aid that enters the gaza strip. >> mr. ambassador, speak to us a little bit more about the conditions that need to be met for the ceasefire -- for this pause to continue. if, let's just say, one rogue member of hamas fires a rocket into israel, would that be enough in your government's estimation to scuttle this pause? >> we don't believe there are rogue members of hamas, it's a very disciplined and hierarchical organization with a specific leadership. if they break the ceasefire, they break the ceasefire, but they also have the option to have this pause extended and we've said publicly the deal -- the arrangement reached was over for four days for 50 hostages and we've said for another ten hostages they will get another day, for a further ten they will get another. we know there are more of our people there, it's a top priority to get them out and we're willing to give the time, that ceasefire, to hamas if they continue to release our hostages. >> we know that the first 50 if this all goes well will be women and many children. we also know that there are men being held hostage and younger men and some who are very injured, including hersh whose parents we had on the show here. do you have any contingencies in place or any communication in these negotiations about the people who are remaining receiving medical care? >> so, once again, our goal is to get everybody out and one can only feel for the families of the captives in gaza, how they must -- how must they -- their life is not a life. they are in this suffering. anyone who has a loved one that is held by these brutal, horrific terrorists, we saw what they were capable of when they attacked israel on october 7th. we saw the massacres. we saw their brutality. we saw the inhumanity. i've seen pictures of babies riddled with bullets and dead babies. i've seen pictures of beheaded people who were beheaded by hamas, i've seen pictures of raped women who were later murdered by hamas. terrible, terrible stuff. these people are brutal killers and we have no illusions about who we're dealing with here. if we can get through, the force of the idf has made them think this is an opportune moment to release hostages that's a good thing. just remember that the youngest of the hostages is a 9 month old -- well, he is now 10 months old, but this young boy, this baby, was kidnapped by these brutal hamas killers before he could walk, before he could talk. that's who we're up against. >> senior advisor to israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu mark regev. thank you very much for bringing this update to us. >> thank you for having me. >> thank you. we're going to turn now to domestic politics here at home. there's new emerson college polling that's showing donald trump leading president joe biden in a hypothetical 2024 election matchup. according to the latest survey trump holds a four-point lead over biden, 47% to 43% among registered voters that's an eight-point swing from last november when the poll showed biden leading trump by four points. when third-party candidates are included on the ballot trump's lead grows to six points. joining us now norm orenstein from the enterprise institute. norm, despite the numbers you say it's too early to freak out. are you sure? >> i am sure about that, mika. you know, a year before the election and many of these polls are questionable to begin with joe biden's standing no doubt is low, but this is a referendum right now. as we get closer and closer to the election it becomes more of a choice. as joe was saying earlier, when the conversation turns to trump more than to biden, things change. but having said that the one part of this poll that gives me chills and great pause is what happens with the other candidates. when i look at the election i'm thinking of a couple of groups of voters, one is biden needs an excited base. the war, depending on how it goes, may have a little bit of a problem for that, but otherwise we are talking about 100,000 voters in a handful of states who are going to make the difference. a pernicious no labels candidacy, a cornell west and the others, if you have voters who aren't thrilled with biden but hate trump, give them another choice and those swing voters could make a real difference. that's what makes me most nervous about the election. >> joe manchin maybe could jump in. >> it's interesting. manchin, i saw a lot of talk, well, this hurts democrats in the senate. manchin decided not to run because he was going to lose that seat. no other democrat could win that seat. he wants to stay in the spotlight. but no labels at least says that they want a republican heading the ticket, which would mean manchin is number two. will manchin accept number two? but if he does, you know, a ticket that may be headed by john huntsman or larry hogan with joe manchin, those swing voters, the suburban, republican, independent voters may decide that they can sell their consciences by not voting for trump but voting for that kind of ticket. i think it helps trump and that's what scares me. >> jonathan lemire, joe manchin has said he could never vote for donald trump. >> right. >> so why would he do something that is clearly -- i mean, do these people lose their heads when they become presidential candidates? >> manchin also said a couple weeks ago when he announced he would not run for reelection he said i don't want to do anything to help trump win, but by your analysis this would help trump win. we've heard that from other candidates including cornell west who says he doesn't want to be part of a trump victory. some in biden world think they don't follow through with those bids but right now they pose a real threat. i want to go back to a second ago about the democratic base and lack of enthusiasm. part of that is among voters of color. the polls show -- and, again, a poll, caveat, it's a snapshot, but there are trends that seem to matter more and it seems like voters of color are less into joe biden than they were and the fear is they might not vote for trump, but they might stay home. >> i think, you know, there's that part of the base. there's also young voters who i think are going to end up motivated by the dobbs decision and what's following, which is just a horrific set of actions in republican states involving women's health. i think for younger voters that may make a difference. maybe it will for some voters of color but an awful lot of attention has to be paid by biden's campaign, by democrats generally, to making sure that the stakes of this election are clear. and that includes some of the arab-american voters who now say they could never vote for joe biden. are they going to allow somebody who wants an immediate muslin band to go in? it goes for hispanic voters. they're citizens, some may not care as much about the immigrants but what trump would do, what we know know, concentration camps in effect for millions of immigrants, you've got to make this case and you have to make it that it is a choice and it's a choice, as you guys have been saying eloquently, do you want fascism or do you want an imperfect democracy. >> i also think the trouble with the polling, i always look at it because it's anything to get energized and to get nervous, i think it's a good thing, but i don't think people are ready to -- there's a lot that the biden administration, the biden campaign has to work with to message with and that's also overwhelming. that could be a stark clear message is much easier, but managing the world, right? managing women's rights. managing this administration and its historic accomplishments, okay? still working on the economy is what he needs to say and i will get to that in a moment, compared to trump. compared to all the things that are going against this guy, including legal issues and crimes potentially committed and just offensive behavior. but back to the economy, isn't it important to communicate to americans that the job isn't done yet? that the data points look good but people -- if you talk to young people today in their 30s, you know, they're struggling. they're not feeling a great economy. they are counting their groceries, they are wondering if they should order takeout. this is not a great economy for them. they're not feeling it. we've talked about that several times. i think this bragging on the economic numbers, that could fall short. >> you're exactly right. it's odd with the economy, you ask people whether they're doing well and except for those young voters most americans say they're doing fine, but the economsucks. you can't go out there and tell people, look at the great things we've done and biden has done so terrific things, without understanding that that broader perspective has to be dealt with and y have to focus on telling them exactly that the job is not done, but we feel your pain and we're doing something, whatever we can do about it. you know, there's messaging that is look at the good things that i've done. more important in this election is look at what the alternative is and that has to be what motivates both the base voters, but also those swing voters. and they're not large in number. this is a tribal society now. most americans identify with one of those two parties but it's those voters who could switch, who are uneasy with trump. >> right. >> i do think, you know, most people have not focused on trump's legal issues, they're not spending their days watching what's going on, we haven't had trials that are televised. >> gag order updates. >> wait until he gets convicted of something and then i think the dynamic will shift some, and that won't happen until after he's pretty much secured the nomination. >> i know. i mean, the timing on these, lemire, i don't know -- >> there's only one trial that looks like it could wrap up before the election. >> what's that? >> that's the federal election interference case, the january 6 jack smith case. there was "the new york times" polling that set off alarm bells among democrats that had trump up in all the battleground states except if he was convicted he would drop six points each. it's unclear, before or right around the nomination. >> norm ornstein, thank you so much. today marks 60 years since the assassination of president john f. kennedy, but for many there are still unanswered questions about that day in dallas. nbc news correspondent morgan chesky has a look at the mystery that continues to hang over kennedy's murder. >> reporter: 60 years after the fateful day in dallas the words still stun. >> president kennedy died at approximately 1:00 central standard time. >> reporter: america's young, inspiring president, gunned down by a man the warren commission would later claim acted alone, firing three shots from this sixth floor window in a book depository. >> we have to learn why the death of this one man so impacted the nation and the world. >> reporter: steven fagan is curator at the sixth floor museum at dealey plaza, giving today a first look at a new twibt, two days in texas, marking the somber anniversary. >> this particular artifact has never been displayed before. >> reporter: sharing how a trauma surgeon ditched protocols in an effort to save the president. >> he didn't have a chance to change into surgical scrubs so he was wearing his dress shirt which was stained with the president's blood. >> reporter: jfk's personal possessions, letters, books, even a boat, now all coveted pieces of history. >> his death changed things. it really did. it changed the course of 20th century american history. >> reporter: which is why so many still come here to remember and pay tribute. multiple xs marking the spots where bullets found their mark in 1963. >> the xs, that's something i hadn't seen before. that really kind of gets me. >> reporter: and everyone has their own thoughts on lee harvey oswald. kennedy's accused gunman who was himself killed just two days later on live tv. >> do you think lee harvey oswald acted alone? >> no, i don't. >> oh, my gosh. the older i get, the more i believe he had -- he did not. >> i think there was probably a conspiracy. >> reporter: conspiracy or not, 60 years later the loss hangs heavy, especially for jfk's family. this picture capturing his daughter, ambassador caroline kennedy, recently honoring her father at arlington national cemetery. >> is it the lack of closure here that you think helps keep this story alive? >> it is the mystery, the lingering questions that bring people to dealey plaza. hopefully they leave here with a broader appreciation of who president kennedy was, what his legacy still means to us today. >> and coming up on "morning joe," we will have much more on that moment that put the entire nation in mourning. acclaimed filmmaker rob reiner joins us with a look at his new project, investigating kennedy's assassination. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. n. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. excuse me. here is a flash from the associated press, "dateline" dallas. two priests who were with president kennedy say he is dead of bullet wounds. there is no further confirmation, but this is what we have on a flash basis from the associated press. >> white house press secretary has just announced that president kennedy died at approximately 1:00 central standard time, which is about 35 minutes ago. >> good evening. the essential facts are these, president kennedy was murdered in dallas, texas. he was shot by a sniper hiding in a building near his parade route. he was dead within an hour. lyndon johnson is president of the united states. that was the nbc broadcast 60 years ago today, november 22nd, 1963. as a shocked nation learned over the course of the afternoon that the president, john f. kennedy, had been shot and killed in dallas. shot by a suspected lone gunman, lee harvey oswald. a new podcast, however, is challenging that theory, who killed jfk is a ten-episode series that investigates what our next guest calls the greatest murder mystery in american history. joining us now one of the podcast's hosts, emmy award winning actor and acclaimed filmmaker rob reiner, along with us for the conversation nbc news presidential historian michael beshlaff. >> rob, i wanted to get your theories as to why this has such a grip on the american psyche now six decades ago. that the people are still so captivated by what happened in dallas that day. >> well, you think about it, you have an american president murdered in broad daylight on the street in america, and we who were alive at the time were traumatized. it was a national trauma. everybody who was alive at that time can remember exactly where they were and exactly when they heard the news. i was in my physics class in high school, a kid walked in, talked to the teacher and said -- the teacher turned to us and said, i have some terrible news, and told us what had happened. we were all sent home from school. we went to our televisions and we watched nonstop. and i happened to watch and saw on live television the man who was accused of killing president kennedy himself was murdered by jack ruby, a nightclub owner in dallas. the whole thing was just so shocking and so devastating that you never forget it. and it changed the course of history and it, i believe, started the great divide that we see in our country right now. it was the first time we started thinking that maybe the government is not telling us the whole truth. >> so, michael, let's get you in on this. you know, from your vantage point as a historian, what changed about america that day? >> well, and i was 7 years old so i had a similar experience, western avenue school in illinois, our teacher came in crying, which was not something that we had seen before. but, you know, look at where america was in 1963, only 18 years earlier america with our allies we had defeated germany, we had defeated japan, we had saved the world for freedom, we had spent 18 years resisting the soviet union to make sure that it, too, did not take over the world. the week before john kennedy was murdered 60 years ago he went to cape canaveral and saw the saturn rocket that would soon fly into space as part of his promise to get to the moon by 1970. this was the america we knew. so to go from that in one instant to the idea that a president of the united states riding in an american city, just as rob is saying, could be murdered. especially for people our age. i was a little bit younger than rob, but the idea that that could happen, i think i would use the same word that he does, it traumatized all of us because not very much was certain, and particularly it led to, i think, not too much to say with vietnam, lbj escalated after kennedy's death and watergate and all the other disillusionment, kinds of disillusionment that americans have had in the next 60 years. it led very directly to the kind of anger and disillusionment and conspiracy theories and general malaise that people feel about not only our government, but even about democracy. >> rob, as mentioned pretty soon after the assassination we got the official story about what happened that day doubts began to emerge and conspiracy theories have taken hold, alternate theories of what happened. you mentioned in the podcast in the second episode you talk about the infamous single bullet theory from the warren commission report into the assassination. tell us about it and tell us why you have such skepticism. >> well, if you look at that one piece of evidence, the single bullet theory, the entire warren commission rests on it, and you have to believe that a shot from the sixth floor of that building entered kennedy's back, 6 to 8 inches below his neck, then traveled upward and came out of his neck, stopped in midair, made a turn, hitting connolly, governor connolly who was sitting in front of him, hitting him in the armpit, breaking some ribs, exiting, making another turn, going into his wrist, breaking his wrist bones, making another turn and going into his thigh. now, if you believe that i don't know what else to tell you. the one thing that people don't know is that they didn't see the zapruder film when the warren commission came out. once the zapruder film was released and released on geraldo rivera's show in the '70s you can see connolly sitting in front of kennedy. you can see kennedy going to his throat to hold his throat like this and connolly turns to his right to see what's going on behind him. so he didn't get hit. and then he gets hit by a bullet. so there's no way that the bullet that went through kennedy could have possibly gone through connolly. and connolly to the day he died said the bullet that hit kennedy didn't go and hit me. so there had to be another shooter and the shooter had to be in some other position. that in itself says there is a conspiracy. and there's no question about it. it was a conspiracy. if you do all of the research, put it all together, and, by the way, this has been going on for 60 years now. people hear drips and drabs of information and they look at it and they go, oh, that's interesting. they don't put it all together in context and in a comprehensive way. that's what we do with this ten-part podcast that i host with solidad o'brien. we put all the information over 60 years, put it together and it becomes very clear what happened that day. >> the third episode of the podcast "who killed jfk" is out today. rob reiner, thank you very much for sharing that with us. historian michael beschloss, thank you as well. before we head to break let's take a live look at lax airport which is expecting 2.5 million passengers over the thanksgiving holiday. that's close to the record set back in 2019. meanwhile, aaa is predicting around 49 million americans will hit the road this week, and many of them will see lower gas prices at the pump. pack your patience, lemire. welch more "morning joe" straight ahead. straight ahead he hits his mark —center stage—and is crushed by a baby grand piano. you're replacing me? 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it's true. plus when you buy your first line of mobile, you get a second line free. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible, it's happening. trump's campaign team just released a note from his doctor that said he is in excellent health. yeah. i'm not so sure it's legit. can we see the note? donald is in excellent health, the most health a man could ever have, that i can tell you, doctor. the doctor added that trump lost weight with continued daily physical activity. trump is the only guy who gets his cardio in by storming out of courtrooms. >> there's that. okay. we also have a quick note from know your value as part of our mission we highlight women who have found their greatest success well after the age of 50 and that includes karen gaetz who turned her lifelong passion for baking into the wildly popular company maine crisp. like many women karen struggled with self-doubt, she recently spoke to us about her career journey and how the know your value message resonated with her. take a listen. >> we as women, why do we have this self-doubt? when, you know, if i looked at something logically, of things that i've done, i shouldn't have that. but we do. so it was a struggle of as we were bringing in investors and as we were bringing in different management team, like my learning has all been hands on, right? i didn't learn in a classroom. so i found myself discounting my own abilities, but i managed to produce award winning food products that were in some of the best restaurants in the country. i'm doing better. i wouldn't say it's 100% and there are things that i will look at to remind me, but the book just "know your value" that's something that resonated and a sentence and repeating that to myself of know your value. >> i love it. you can watch our entire interview with karen and other women who are proving success does not have an age limit, not anymore, it's all at knowyourvalue.com. we love our 50 over 50 lists, the global lists are coming out soon. speaking of 50 over 50, i love this one, our own nicolle wallace had a baby. take a look at beautiful isabella sloan schmidt. she and mike schmidt have welcomed this beautiful baby girl into -- isn't she gorgeous, lemire? i'm so happy for nicolle. >> so adorable. our congrats to nicolle and mike. it's spectacular. >> i was texting with nicolle, she said she's such a snuggle and promises that isabella is never going to miss the 6:00 a.m. hour of "morning joe" which i appreciate. but the thought of having a baby at this stage in life, it's brave, it's fabulous and i always wonder about it myself because i would be the most mindful mom to be able to do it at this age and stage in life. so congratulations. how wonderful. no, i'm not going to do it. you were about to ask. >> that was a natural follow-up question. >> joe has like 18,000 kids. but congratulations, nicolle. we love you. i'm so excited for you. a look at some of the most anticipated shows on broadway. frank dalella joins us with a preview of what to see this spring. "morning joe" will be right back. spring "morning joe" will be right back hey, you should try new robitussin honey medi-soothers for long-lasting cough and sore throat relief. try new robitussin lozenges with real medicine and find your voice. you know? we really need to work on your people skills. somedays, i cover up because of my moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. now i feel free to bare my skin, thanks to skyrizi. ♪(uplifting music)♪ ♪nothing is everything♪ i'm celebrating my clearer skin... my way. with skyrizi, 3 out of 4 people achieved 90% clearer skin at 4 months. in another study, most people had 90% clearer skin, even at 5 years. and skyrizi is just 4 doses a year, after 2 starter doses. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or a lower ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine, or plan to. thanks to clearer skin with skyrizi - this is my moment. there's nothing on my skin and that means everything! ♪nothing is everything♪ now's the time. ask your doctor about skyrizi, the #1 dermatologist-prescribed biologic in psoriasis. learn how abbvie could help you save. ♪♪ there were the cabaret and there were the master and a city called berlin and a country called germany. i was dancing with sally bowls and it was the end of the world. ♪♪ whoa, that was a sneak peek of cabaret starring eddie redmayne which comes to broadway this spring. that looks good. >> it's great. >> musical revivals are taking center stage on broadway as merry we roll along store high marks from theater critics. tomorrow you can see the stars of "spamelot" and guttenberg on the annual coverage of macy's thanksgiving day parade which will feature performances from some of the seasons broadway shows. but joining us now with a spring broadway preview is emmy award winning host on stage -- of on stage frank dilella. on stage is celebrating 25 years this year on spectrum one. >> thank you. >> that's quite a feat. >> i have been there 19 of those years. >> really? >> it's a big celebration this year for us. >> let's go through. first of all, well, should we talk about what's on brood way now or what's coming? >> that looks amazing. >> cabaret. cabaret opens in the spring, it's currently playing in london, it's a huge hit, won all kinds of awards. actually saw eddie redmayne played the role of the emcee in london, he is fantastic. he is actually coming over here to do the show. it's rather immersive. go back stage, down alleys, have a drink, watch performers get ready. >> that's a lot of work. >> but it's fun. >> it is. >> it's an experience. >> you get to your seat and the show unfolds and it's one of the greats. it is one of the great musicals of all time. bb north is also going to be in this production. >> i love her. >> i can't wait to see it again on broadway. we just had the other day some of the stars of "here we are" on set including david hyde peers. >> which. >> which is sondheim's final musical. >> a group of upper class friends gathering together to find a place to go to brunch and then darkness and hill arty ensues. it's a fantastic cast, david hyde peers but also rachel jones who won a tony award. >> i'm a huge sondheim fan. this is a must see if you love sondheim. it's currently playing off broadway at the shed. it may go on to broadway, we're waiting to hear but it's worth catching at the shed right now. >> a new musical is harmy co-written by barry manilow. >> barry manilow and bruce sussmann wrote harmony. barry manilow said this is the most fulfilling creative experience of his life. take away all the songs and everything that he put already, revivals, the whiz and spam-alot. >> the whiz. >> the whiz coming back. >> that's how old i had. >> and a great cast. dab bra cox, glenda, wayne brady is the wiz. it's on a national tour. for folks watching at home this may be playing in your town right now. >> when did it first come out? ? >> in the '70s, in the mid '70s. mika, how great is the music in the wiz? >> i know. i love it. >> i can't wait for this one. as you mentioned, spam-alot, too. the they've been bringing back musicals and putting them up on stage for a couple weekends. spam a lot was their last one, got raves when it played down there. open to rave reviews just recently. >> should i tell them where i'm going? >> you should. >> mj the musical. >> you are going to love it. >> come on. >> i tell every single person that if they have not seen mj yet they have to get to that show. christopher wheeleden, director, choreography did an amazing job putting the show together and it's going to london. it's about to open in london. >> frank dilella, always great to have you on. >> happy thanksgiving. as we are looking ahead at the lot of major news that we will be covering here on msnbc, obviously the hostage deal. msn obviously the hostage deal story in the next 24 hours, which is about when we'll start seeing -- we'll start seeing some hostage release from some including a few americans who could have freedom again on thanksgiving, but certainly the white house still cautiously optimistic recognizes there's still nearly 200 hostages. >> i know, we'll have more just ahead. we'll beus right back with more "morning joe." e from rsv in people 60 years and older. arexvy does not protect everyone and is not for those with severe allergic reactions to its ingredients. those with weakened immune systems may have a lower response to the vaccine. the most common side effects are injection site pain, fatigue, muscle pain, headache, and joint pain. i chose arexvy. rsv? 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(vo) no matter who you are there are times it can be tough to be yourself when you have severe asthma. triggers can pop up out of nowhere and lead to an asthma attack. but no matter what type of severe asthma you have tezspire can help you be you. tezspire is an add-on treatment for people 12 and over that can help you have fewer attacks,... breathe better and relieve your asthma symptoms. so you can be you, whoever you are. tezspire is not a rescue medication. don't take tezspire if you're allergic to it. allergic reactions may occur and can be serious. rash or eye allergy can happen. don't stop your asthma treatments unless your doctor tells you to. tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection or your asthma worsens. sore throat, joint and back pain may occur. avoid live vaccines. by helping control your asthma tezspire can help you be you. no matter who you are. ask your asthma specialist about tezspire today. good morning, it is 10:00 a.m. eastern, 7:00 a.m. pacific, i'm josé diaz-balart. right now on msnbc breaking news a deal reached to release 50 hostages held by hamas.

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