The forceful and violent takeover of power by as soldiers. And not just shows the breakdown in the social contract between the leadership and the people of those countries. Countries that have been unable to deal with the massive problems that people are facing from joblessness, among the young people to insurgencies. The latest Ballistic Missile tests by north korea being content by condemned. By more than half the members of the un security council. Version france in the u. S. Or among 8 countries describing the tests launches of as a significant escalation. China is urging the white house to show more flexibility if it wants to break through. Iran responded to the u. S. Waving some sanctions on its civilian Nuclear Program as talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal reach a critical stage. The iranians still say to have a legal right to continue research into Peaceful Nuclear capabilities, which cant be restricted by any agreement. Dont trump ended the waiver 2 years ago when he was president , the 1st official, they have competition is underweight, the badging winter olympic games. Strict corona virus rules are in force and athletes are being isolated. Diplomats from 10 countries of boycotting the games because of chinas authoritarian rule and human rights abuses. Rescue workers in morocco still working around the clock to save a 5 year old boy digging out part of a hillside in a delicate operation to reach the child. Who has been trapped at the bottom of the 30 to me to well for 5 days and form you as Vice President mike pan says donald trump was wrong to say he could have overturned a jo bidens election when the pence good. His comments are the strongest yet that the former Vice President is made against the former president s counting the cost is coming up next on al jazeera and then elizabeth moran. M. As here with your new zone news. Ah ah ah, i dont know the problem. This is counting the cost on your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week the u. S. And his allies have doubled down on the threat of factions. The ukraine stands off. Its a took care resorted to of the past decade or so. It bought, do such punishment really bite and whats at stake . Also this week of tension between russia and the west escalate over ukraine. Your Energy Supplies in the crosshairs. National says the continent must, does this apply to be from away from moscow . But who could fill the gap . A new terrace weapon against the us, the war trade organization authorizes china to retaliate against millions worth of annual american export. Washington says the ruling undermine fame. Market competition. Ah, a build up of Russian Troops along ukraines border has kept moscows rivals on edge wandering. What let me putins next move is russias president says he doesnt intend to invade ukraine. Leaders in western capital say he might attack and a one the hi prize if he does order troops in the u. K. The European Union and the us have previously imposed russian sanctions and more are expected if diplomacy fails. Stock markets reacted to the g. O Political Tension and the stand off is raised and fears of a wider economic fought out. Us officials have warned of what they called the mother of all sanctions against russia. And bow expected to include measures targeting that image hootons in a circle. And its tied to the west. Washington and its allies have also been discussing border sanctions against sectors of russias economy, including banking and energy. The measures meant to hurt the russian economy, but its fear theyll also affect those of other nations. Well, the crisis has already pushed the price of oil and gas south, but it goes beyond energy. The cost of metals used for everything from ca, making and out of tronics to kitchenware and construction have also increased. So have the prices of wheat and colon on the possibility of a sudden supply crunch. Russia and Ukraine Combined make up a quarter of global grain exports. And kia has called on the west to avoid spreading panic that could put its economy at risk. When a loss appears to be at stake, to discuss that im joined by tatiana or larva whos the lead emerging markets economist with oxford economics. Shes also the founder of emerging all mix and shes joining us from london. Very good to have you with us. So what do you make of the possible new sanctions that weve heard about so far from the us and its allies that they have been threatening russia would . Well, sometimes the hero, the sanctions can do more damage than the sanction themselves. And we can see that these 5th of the human infection already done a lot of damage to the russian markets. However, i think the, what we need to see now is the exact warranty or the deal that the us will low because of going to approve. And then we will see what the damage these sanctions could do. For example, the board and you know, what action russia needs to take with whether the sanctions will be imposed if russia affects ukraine or if there are Cyber Attacks or even information campaigns. So well be looking at him to the lord. Yeah, and the u. S. Has been debasing imposing factions, not just of russia, invades ukraine, russia attacks ukraine, but actually over the actions that you already mentioned, the Cyber Attacks, the sort of, you know, information. The information was the u. S. And this allies have imposed sanctions against russia in the past. And yet we find ourselves here again after the annexation of crime in 2014. How effective have previous sanctions been in deterring russia . Well, i wouldnt say they have been very effective. I think that the russian leadership is probably has a long term Political Goals and its a building explaining strategy and in order to achieve those goals. So i think its actually kind of has been general case we manufacture and not just against russia, but also other countries such as been you swale and iran. Glenn, actually, you know, the sanctions often do not probably bring it as a defect and sometimes they actually inflict a lot of suffering under populations. So the sanction the tool which has to used very carefully and given that they do affect people as much as they do governments, could they possibly backfire here and not just affect the russian people, but other than europe to oh yes, i think its going possible. I mean, if the west info impose the harsh sanctions against russia, russia would reply, you know, its all, all come to the sanctions. And it was the case during the conflict of 20142015 when russia actually curved some in but from the European Union. And other countries which involve sanctions game. So as a result, there was some damage to certain european businesses, you know, greek fellows of features or made the oldness of f, a which is in poland could no longer send their produce to russia. So i guess that some kind of measures along those lines would also be expected. And in europe itself, united in whatever actions taken against russia, better loan, the us and europe on the same page. No, no, we havent seen my immunity. And there is, 1st of all, that a lot of divisions in europe itself because the various countries within the europe have different degrees of ties. This russia, Economic Science of some countries so much stronger. For example, germany has traditionally build these high dependence on russia, russian hydrocarbon supplies. So yes, there is become, see that the u. S. And a europe out on the same page. And what is that . As well as all the uncertainty doing, you know, to markets, how have they been reacting . What is the sort of, you know, not, i will not say pre war, but the anticipation the uncertainty doing market sentiment. You, as i said, the fear itself is already affecting the market and here. Well, 1st of all, the russian markets going to be 2. 2 while and in the last few weeks away. But i want to to see here that the last few days, actually this situation has come down. And these happened after russia reacted in a relatively mild fashion to the us reply to its demand. So i think the markets have great you to start the pricing out to the very political premium that was built in during the month of january. And thats interest. And yes, please continue. Sorry, i was, yes, i was just going to mention that ukrainian markets. Youre also reacting a lot of concern to these developments. So in the way, you know, even though at the moment there is no open conflict. I mean, its the situation on the border is calm. No one is shooting or killing people, but the markets already reacting as if there was a war. So ukraine kind of was also affected by this. Panic moved and Foreign Investors started drawing the funds from you bringing markets. All right, tatiana and london, thank you very much for your time. Thank you. Well, as the talk, sanctions goes louder, europe could find itself squeezed on the energy front. Its believe that measures to limit roches ability to export oil and gas would be the most powerful weapon and would hurt the russian economy, but they would cause pain for others. Most, most of the europe, russia provides around 30 percent of the European Union, natural gas. And if there is a war, you may have to turn to other supplies that us has been working with all the countries on ways to supply fuel to western europe, nations. If that happens, dominic cane support from berlin. This is the am or natural gas installation in central russia. One of many such plants is product is pipe to destinations in asia and europe, all of which generates an export revenue of more than 200000000. 00. A day for the provide a gas problem. The greatest Single Market is germany, closely followed by other european countries. Cumulatively 128000000 cubic meters of gas flows to the e each year, representing around a 3rd of its annual impulse. But what would happen if the ukraine crisis became more war and all of this was suddenly switched off. Its got it, so i dont have, it could be an interruption. Gas lives, or whoever the russian government should weigh carefully whether they really want lat, while as possible. To put europe under pressure for europe would eventually tend to liquid gas from other countries. Understood if liquid gas or l n g is the solution. There are a few of these potential suppliers, most notably the u. S. And the state of qatar, while neither could fill the short full of so much gas, immediately one analyst told me, qatar might be able to provide a more medium and long term solution. The categories indeed, did supply europe with a lot more gas in the past. But given the fact that the europeans were not very fond of the way that the contracts were structured, katara tended to asia and now supplies from most of the gas to them rather than the europeans should the be some se reconsideration on the european end. When it comes to the contractual elements and their compatibility with European Energy law, then that this might actually change the situation. And hes in a medium to long term. From the geopolitical perspective, there are increasingly loud voices in western europe who dont want to be so dependent on russia for their Energy Supply shit in full. Betty lecount assume we have to build a foundations of our sovereignty, which means more independence from russia. When i look at our important domes of oil and gas studies, we are not independent from russia. This wont happen overnight, dont, but you know, he, you leaders have been clear that a russian act of aggression against ukraine would have dire consequences for president putin and his country. It would mean an end to his hopes of switching on the north stream to gas pipeline. Depriving him of tens of billions of dollars in revenue, and depriving the e u of hundreds of billions of cubic meters of russian gas. The few in berlin is such a price is worth paying if it can deter moscow from invasion. Ministers here dont want to arm the ukrainians. They believe the most potent weapon against putin is sanctions. No matter the cost dominant cane al jazeera in the german capital. Or to discuss all of that on join now by mike full, with the Senior Research fellow at Oxford Institute for energy studies. And hes joining me now from oxford. Mister full with thank you for your time. How worried do you think europe is right now about us Energy Supply . Thank you. Is where they should, they should be very worried. I think li core, lots of europe supply, not just of gas, coal, and oil as well. Come from russia. So theres obviously a lot of uncertainty about the event of any sort of conflict still isnt the crane. So what might help close supplies say it really is a key issue as the other in yeah, online is in the press and Quality Assurance has been working on a contingency plan. Was the tool going the mean years has ministration has been talking about trying to get more gaster lucas, like natural gas to come to, to europe. And thats, thats limited to the extent that really so much to go out and g around the world and that split between and the number of markets, including only asia, europe, south america, really market. So there isnt much l, a g around the world. The at the moment. Well, the u. S. Has been trying to find a contingency plan. As you mentioned, washington has tried to persuade europe in the past though to buy its gas, but its found few takers. Why is that . Well, i mean, i present true. Talked about with freedom, gosh, for your that was a little more towards the outage. I mean the b, b, u. S. L n g producer os acres the way that the contracts are structured with the oxide because theyre pretty much free to send their gas at n g o was anywhere in the world and they attended to follow the market. So when it was cold in asia, nation prizes will holler, a lot of it went off and japan creates our warm china and india. And you know, when in the last few months or last year and part of this year, a lot of it reco amounts of complete europe because the europe in price at the moment so much more. So i think the buyers and sellers like the flexibility, right, the ability to move on g round gives them all right. And what about the north stream pipeline to which theres been a lot of attention on it would bring piped gas from eastern russia to western germany. From under the baltic sea, but is that likely to still go ahead of the current environment . An audience might be, i think, clearly as as a promise on the ground in bait, in the crate. And then that was the project to the complete jeopardy. Its probably likely, politically, to start well, theres an actual conflict on an, in the options of that. And so if the key which is the cyber rattling them this approach is going to prove no strain to regulate as restarted the process that might not the nation. So, so the 2nd of this year just goes to europe, a commission for approval that thats really a robust stamp. So it could get delayed as the process takes longer, but ultimately, legally it will, it will get approved then becomes a political decision as to whether to stop it and not, not could those huge litigation surely, but damages in the course of sponsor the project, not just the russians and the possible Energy Crunch that were talking about. Who do you see it hurting more than you are p and nations, which is so reliant on russia for the gas or russia itself, which sells so much of its the co 5 natural gas to europe and earns revenues from us. Well, its no till the boat, man, i think yeah, russia gets a little revenues from explosive oil and gas. Oh. And the, and i was trying to live with the prices last year. So she built up quite a chest of dollars with which to withstand, lets say a short cut off of supplies. She got the money certainly to go to that. But i think he did it. Russia just from did cattail supplies. Then i spent 30 to 40 years building up a reputation being a reliable supplier. And thats all part of the window. If they, if they could tell supplies and theyve been saying your long Term Contract off the table and it will be disastrous for your mike. Forward and oxford, thank you for your time. Again, for more than a quarter of a century, the World Trade Organization has been meant to serve as an arbiter of commerce. But it has rarely succeeded to not shop any winds on the country. It has often got caught in the crossfire when its tried to find solutions. The u. S. Has repeatedly accused the w. T o of siding the bay jing and the dispute between the 2 countries and has demanded its reform. The trade body is yet again anger and b, u. S. Its authorized china to retaliate against 645000000. 00 worth of us imports per year. As part of a decade old trade dispute, or the u. S. Anti subsidy duties on chinese goods. The amount was much less than the 2400000000. 00 that china had initially requested. Washington said its impose the tariffs on products, including solar panels, because they were being dumped on the market to help Chinese Companies do business. As the 2nd time, the w t o has allowed china to retaliate for us anti dumping taxes and 2019 the arbitration. And our paging to add duties on up to 3600000000. 00 worth of us imports. That same year, former president donald trump, blocked the appointment of new judges to the organizations applet body. Well, the new ruling comes almost a year after a fragile, but arguably, durable trade truth between the us and china. Washington and beijing signed a trade packed in 2020 that demands china increased its buying of u. S. Goods. The Chinese Government has so far fail to meet those purchase commitments. President joe biden has kept duties on chinese apparel, furniture, and other items. The u. S. Imposed tower on at least 360000000000. 00 a year in chinese made goods. The w t o has said additional tariffs imposed in 2018 by the us on chinese goods violated International Trading rules. Separately, the e u has fall the case against china at the w t. O photography. In lithuania, just begun with blocking lithuanian import. The route was parked off lithuania as decision to allow taiwan, which is seen by the Chinese Government as part of its territory to open a diplomatic outpost in vilnius. China downgraded its diplomatic relations with the way nivia that denies ordering a boycott of the nations goods. Im joined now by henry gal who is the associate professor at the singapore management university. Hes also a member of the Advisory Board of the w t o chairs program. And hes joining us from singapore, mr. Gal. Very good to have you with us. So how much of the surprise was this decision by the w t o, how much of a when was it for china . Well, i guess the decision was not really surprising because this is part of a long rang and dispute. They came back 2 years ago and the body already wrote us. The substance is 3 years ago. So the decision basically established the quantity, the quantum of damage or china. But the even get it of us actually was ready decided 3 years ago. So i think this is just a mind trip or china, i wouldnt see this is a big win for china. The u. S. A certainly angered by it, whether they see it as a win or not. And theyre saying that this is, you know, the decision reflects erroneous apple. It body interpretations. What do you make of that . Well, the us has been complaining about b, w q, just just as system for a long time, especially on to remedies cases where they regard the appellate body is to show public body. For example, to be a serious mistake that minds the other countries ability to tech or tiny sustain capitalism and have a long call or be formed. But it puts money, i would agree with us review. I think the appellate body actually has made the right decision. Ironically, if you look closely at the appellate body decision 3 years ago, i mentioned aria, actually the appellate body. In that case, did a try to re adjust these already of your spring, some probably the body to make it easier for us to have a safeguard. As to have us already subsidy a mattress against china. So i think the u. S. A complaint, a definite mist directly and you know, the u. S. Has been so angry at the w t o in the past that its actually blocked appointments to the athletic body, which is the dispute settlement cost. How much has that hampered the World Trade Organization and its ability to sol disputes between countries . Would you say yes, definitely. I mean, the us a decision to block the appellate body a, another mistake made by the us, the course. Ironically, on the one hand, you are seeing that the u. S. Has been complaining that and china is being body. Can all kinds of w your rules. On the other hand, to the end of my using the w 2 s ability to really and off, this was china by removing the appellate body, making the body basically be non existent. So i think the u. S. Is kind of a self contradicting if they really want to have you was my actions against trying the w q. You should definitely bring back the appellate body. Do you think that thats likely to happen under President Joe Biden . It hasnt happened so far. It was the former president , donald trump, who just decided to block appointments from the app and the body could be see some progress now. Well, everyone have been waiting since the president of barton team to all the so you go, but i think those of us in the circle have a barn large being disappointed by the actions of the new body animation. Because despite the seeing that the u. S. Is back to the us market. Last one is the still continue the blockage just we saw the tween for president trump. So i think ive had a boy that would be continue the blockage at least a ball while and kill the get what they want to in the w 2 by the probably the u. S. Has not even made it clear, right . Know what the one in the w use, so that make solve the problem even more difficult. Youre not surprised by the w to a decision later, decision on china. But would you say that it impacts this . You know, a fragile trade truth between the us and china. That weve had some 2020 that is a good point actually. Because i personally, even though i was not surprised by the decision. But i think this decision providers trying to some expected to get an average in the things that they could use this authorization from the w q. Ready 2 repetitive in the us as a kind of a bargaining chip with us, especially as the u. S. Now is reviewing chinas implementation of the phase one, where the most common to us would have re and theyre trying to build to implement that plan, grim it to 46 percent. So i think china could use these 2 advantage and maybe these would help what we need trunks or mr. Guy, we have just a less than a minute left. And id like to ask you about lithuania as well. What do you make of the European Union taking this case to the w t o over chinas actions against lithuania . Well, the see . No surprising because the u has been contacting the case for a while. And i would argue that it is a good that the u. S is picking the piece to the w because its much better than simply, you know, trying to go back and forth using diplomatic channels. Because the definition of walking, i think china, in the case would have probably 5, the National Security exception, just like russia did in the case against your grand. So the case would be interesting to watch. I hope that the w 2 panel, what do you need a basic, what are the conditions, need to cite the National Security exception in the case henry gal and singapore. Thank you very much for your time. My pleasure. And thats our show for this week. Get in touch with us by tweeting me at miss for autumn and do use the hash tag a j c t c. When you do or drop as an e mail council, the cost at ellen, just the dot net as i address. But theres more for you online as ill just the or dot com slash ctc. Thatll take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, length and tired episodes for you to catch up on that set for this edition of counting the cost. Im elizabeth per item from the whole team. Thank you for joining us. The news on al jazeera is the new zealand is a bird watch is paradise. But this South Pacific nation has one of the worst extinction records on earth racks and other introduced premises have decimated the nike bird population. The decline is still ongoing. If we let it roll for another 50 years, they wont be much left to restore. Now, you zealand is leading the world with an extraordinary goal to wipe out the countries with peers. By 2050. There is nowhere else on the planet like this. And we now have the technology, the well in the law here. So do you take those spaces . Finally, after 2 days of 36 that we made our 1st, hey we both birds will join 14 other key. We released in the last few mom. Its a vital step in fighting while t we, which were almost walked out across the region 2 decades ago. Lou, this is al jazeera ah. And the brought them and this is the news, al, at live from doha, coming out for the next 60 minutes. Multiple clues conflicts and a slow cause of vaccine rollout. Leaders from the African Union be to come up for the coordinated response. The United States wave sanctions on yvonnes civilian Nuclear Program as a step towards returning to the 25th
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