Lockdown or no lockdown
Dr Mandeep Singh Azad
SBI Research says that India should not be “complacent” as it’ll reach the peak of the second wave as “this could lead to a widespread increase in infection as has happened in the current wave”. The peak of the second coronavirus wave in India will come around mid-May with active cases reaching around 36 lakhs. As states go for partial or weekend lockdowns, SBI Research also revised India’s FY22 growth projection to 10.4 per cent real GDP and 14.2 per cent nominal GDP. It said based on other countries’ experiences, might reach its second peak when the recovery rate will be 77.8 per cent. “Given that every 1 per cent reduction in recovery takes around 4.5 days, it translates into around 20 days from now. Also, our estimate shows that every 1 per cent reduction in recovery rate increases active cases by 1.85 lakh.India on 25 March announced that a new variant of the coronavirus had been detected from samples collected from different states. A double mutation in key areas of the virus’s spike protein may make the virus more infectious and allow it to escape the immune system.The change in the virus is the only “logical explanation” behind the surge.