Are not able to stop the tide of illegal immigration so to the point, we are asking global migration crisis what solutions do politicians have . Hello and welcome to the point. Im ishaan here in berlin to understand how governments around the world are trying to tackle the issue of illegal migration. I have three spectacular guests with me. Today we have carolina via, she is Political Editor of kultura libera polands leading online political and cultural weekly. Next on the panel is john kampfner. He is a british author broadcaster and executive director at chatham house, a think tank the panel is john kampfner. He is a british author headquartered in london. And joining us from london is john dhn. He is a senior fellow at the european stability initiatives and is working on eu migration policy. A very warm welcome to you all. Thank you for joining carolina lampedusa has been in the news all week but also new york. Now, more than 100,000 migrants have arrived there since the spring of 2022. Whats going on . Why is there this influx into europe . And the us is there an explanation to this . I think we are right in the midst of a migration epoch. This is certainly the heart of our challenges that we are facing right now now, the reasons for this are of course complicated as with every great phenomenon. This also has a lot of various reasons, but i would name a couple of them so first, of course, the Climate Change, this is the first thing. The second thing is how the politics in africa in the Asian Countries look like. And the situation that the that the societies are in. This is the second, the third one is that it seems that international that the that the societies are in. This is the mafias are also very much interested into smuggling those people so they are so to say, making money and enormous amounts of money on this and last, but not least the social media because now on each and everyones smartphone we can see what the life looks like in australia in europe, in the United States and canada. And this we can see what the life looks like in australia is what those people see on their smartphones. So if the life looks so well in those countries, why not to go and change everything john ka going by so many reasons . Is it time to reconsider the refugee policies that are existing . The question is who does that . And how is it done here in berlin in the heart of europe . Is this done at National Level . Is this done at european level . And what we have is endless month on month, tactical shifts, Crisis Management by governments here done at european level . And what we have is endless and elsewhere. What we do not have is a strategy done at european level . And what we have is endless for migration nor alongside it concomitant to it. Do we have a strategy for demography either . So we have the to sustain our Public Services with in most countries, aging populations who are no longer working or soon will no longer be working, paying into the system and being able to afford the relatively good life that most citizens have had and have assumed as a given for so long. We need people to come in. What we havent got is a differentiation. So we have political Asylum Seekers who have a certain amount come in. What we havent got is a differentiation. So of sympathy. Although that is waning. Were seeing that with ukrainians. Weve long ago seen that with syrians and afghans and iraqis as elsewhere. And then we have people who want, as you said in your introduction a better life and iraqis as elsewhere. And then we have people who now you could construct and you should construct a system difficult though, that may be of better navigating that. So people dont come on, on dangerous boats, they come on difficult though, that may be of better navigating that. So scheduled airlines in order to become doctors, to become chefs to become nurses, accountants, all the things that we need to, to fill our jobs and also to to rejuvenate our societies because we also in most places have, have falling birth rates. So there is no differentiation and theres no strategy. What there is is almost overwhelming panic. Lets falling birth rates. So there is no differentiation and theres go to john dh john john kaner just said that there have to be strategies to make sure that people dont come via these boats. Now, the fact remains that the Central Mediterranean route that is considered the most dangerous migratory route and yet the number of people taking that the Central Mediterranean route that is considered the most dangerous route has gone manyfold. Weve heard a few reasons, but why are people ready to take such a risk . What are the reasons for that . I mean, ii i think youve heard a number of them, them outlined already. I are the reasons for that . I mean, ii i think think its also worth, i mean, breaking down a little bit who is currently taking, taking that route. And so in the last few years, a very large number of people, the significant reason for the spike has been in increase in tunisians, bangladeshis and and egyptians. These are all countries that are not producing large volumes of, of refugees so thats one category and and, and these are overwhelmingly economic migrants in the last year. Uh and, and responsible for the, the sudden spike that weve seen in the last few months and weeks on, on lampedusa is guinea and now that is a different category, a much higher category of, of uh migrants who do go on to and now that is a different category, a much higher to acquire refugee status. Uh so there are definitely very different groups moving for, for very different, for Different Reasons right . Very different groups. Now, the Central Mediterranean route ends at lampedusa, an italian island that only has a capacity to accommodate 500 migrants according to the italian red cross but more than 5000 refugees arrived there in just one day. They are exhausted and worn out. Many waited for months in north africa to cross the mediterranean to reach europe then came disillusionment. The camps on lampedusa are completely months in north africa to cross the mediterranean to reach overcrowded. The situation in the center is not too good because its too cloudy to get food. You can fight if you dont fight, you dont have food even to because its too cloudy to get food. You can fight take shower is a problem. Even cloth problem because the population is too much. There are now more migrants than locals on lampedusa. Many residents are angry, they fear that their island could become a permanent refugee hot. The European Union has been for 20 years today. We are giving this signal. People here have suffered long enough. We are is being used by the maloni government to put pressure on the eu john camp. Now, what do you think is italy trying to pressurize the eu well, georgia maloney is a curious character coming into government on a sort of far right or alt right nativist populist platform, she like most mainstream leaders is struggling just as much as anybody else, not just to deal with numbers. And of course, italy and greece are the two sort of most points of arrival or at least they have been up until now. Shes struggling with the immediate arrivals. And she like all other european leaders is is struggling for a strategy in, in knowing how to do it. So, yeah like all other european leaders is is struggling for a i mean, it was important and i think a short term success of hers to get ursula von der leyen to come to lampedusa a few days ago to see that there is, there is more focus on that. There is an internal european debate, part of the original dublin treaty, that sort of set out mechanisms which delineate whether the responsibility of the country of entry versus a dispersal of Asylum Seekers and migrants across europe. The problem is that a lot of central and Eastern European countries have not been playing ball particularly famously in 2015 with hungary and austria. So germany took in more than a Million People famously then and some countries are picking up more of the burden than others. And if countries like germany where, where we are here now are getting increasingly hard ball and getting increasingly frustrated because theyre looking over their shoulders and theyre seeing the a fd and, and other dangerous forces. Then weve got a real problem. I would come to the distribution of migrants in a bit. But carolina, weve heard who are the people coming . Weve heard the reasons why they are coming. Id like to understand how does this happen . 200 boats this week in lampedusa how was this even possible . Yes. And you asked a very good question also to john, how is it possible that those people are actually capable of risking their own lives . But ii i thought momentarily about those people who that those people are actually capable of risking their own were trying to cross the berlin wall before 1989. I mean, they were also risking their lives and yet no nothing could could could stop them from doing this. So i believe that this is very much connected with the organized crime which is behind all those boats coming, coming to europe to come to your other question. I think that what we are dealing here is a problem which is connected with people smugglers and this is extremely, extremely important. On the other hand, we also have very little time. So john has started to talk about it. This is also something that can endanger our democracy simply in the way that people are genuinely afraid of their societies and their environments changing in such a prompt pace. So what do they do . They often believe the populists and then the populists are completely not the solution. There is the new book by daniel slat and stephen levitsky, the tyranny of minority. And they describe a very interesting paradox namely never in history, in many countries like European Countries but also the United States. We have been so close to an ideal of a multicultural democracy functioning. And yet in 2016, we have the first victory of donald trump and yet in 2016, we have brexit and yet in 2015, we have the victory of law and justice in poland and everything. Every and each of those campaigns were 2015, we have the victory of law and justice in connected with exactly this argument. No more migration. And of course, yet they are not able to do anything about it. John, i think you wanted to put in. Well i mean, its just, youre absolutely right. And what is fascinating here bringing it back to germany just for a second is that the social democrats and particularly the greens are starting to talk in slightly different language because were all looking ahead with some trepidation to european elections early summer. Next year, germany has three Regional Elections in the former communist east in the autumn. All of them look like being democratic car crashes. Um and weve got the slovak elections very shortly. We have uh the polish elections in three weeks. Its, it, it looks like a very dangerous world in which the easy rhetoric of populism is exploiting. What in football terminology, you would call an open dangerous world in which the easy rhetoric of populism is goal. The ground has been completely seeded by the mainstream democratic parties who are frightened of stepping onto this turf carolina just mentioned. You said, what are the solutions . Now zula van der has announced a 10 point action plan john dhs, the action plan does look solution oriented. It also looks ambitious at the surface. But do you think its realistic . It is a combination of the tried and failed and and empty slogans and to refer back to to, to what john was saying just now, the question in forthcoming elections whenever it comes to migration is who gets to present themselves as having a solution that that is credible and that works. Uh and the the central problem at the moment is that the mainstream political establishment the eu doesnt appear to have any solutions that work at all. I mean, if if you refer to this the eu doesnt appear to have any solutions that work this 10 point plan, whats supposed to do anything uh reform of the european asylum system will change, nothing increased improved solidarity mechanism that no one wants to take part in. And that in any case, if it was implemented italy would have to take more people than it does now because it is under presented in terms of Asylum Seekers at the moment, more frontex Border Guards to sit at borders where the host country doesnt want them to seekers at the moment, more frontex Border Guards to sit be or they have to turn their back, their eyes away from the pushbacks that are occurring, theyre going to be or they have to turn their back, their eyes do, theyre going to change nothing. Uh deals with tunisia for instance, more deals with no concrete goals set out for the country thats supposed to, to implement them that result in more people coming in. More Human Rights Violations occurring. More assistance to countries in africa. The three countries in africa got, got the most assist from the e occurring. More assistance to countries in africa. The three countries us 5 billion in the last five years. There have been three coups in those countries, nigeria, burkina, faso and. Burkina faso and mali. Thats not going to do anything. None of the elements of this 10 point plan will fundamentally change anything. In contrast. However, the leaders who get to look as if they have had solutions that work are all on the far right . Uh or, or or pretty close to the far, right, whether thats piss in in poland saying weve closed the border, we unashamedly push people back and look far fewer people are arriving orban gets to say ive built fences. Ive sealed off push people back and look far fewer people are arriving my country from anyone applying for asylum. How many people arrive . Nine it works. Uh the salvini says i got rid of rescue, rescue boats in the mediterranean numbers fell it appears to work wasnt the fundamental cause of the reduction in numbers, but nonetheless, they get to present their solutions, solutions that work because indeed pushbacks can and do work. The challenge for a mainstream political establishment and parties is what do you present as an alternative to violence cruelty and brutality at your borders and in transit countries that has the cynical are non of contemporary electoral politics of controlling borders. And this is what everyones focus needs to be on. Not, not fantasies of the kind that the eu and v is peddling. So come on in a minute. So no concrete solutions from the politicians, but a lot of words. Well, we have indeed heard some strong words from both van der leyen and melanie this week. Lets take a quick listen to what theyve said strong words from both van der leyen and melanie this we will decide who comes to the European Union and under what circumstances and not the smugglers and traffickers migrant we will decide who comes to the European Union and we can only take action against immigration illegally. Carolina jah has raised a lot of points. Now, would you say that the European Distribution plan has completely failed . I would has raised a lot of points. Now, would you say say that the Public Opinion is changing and it is has raised a lot of points. Now, would you say changing profoundly throughout the european member states. Look here in germany in 2015, a million of people have been welcomed now, after the start of the full scale war in ukraine, this country has also accepted hundreds of thousands of people from ukraine, refugees from ukraine. However, after those two last migrant crises, the german politicians say more and more often listen, we will not, we cannot do it anymore even if we have very good will. Now look at the poland polands political scene. A lot is being said about the current government and its policy of not opening borders and not welcoming even those quotas that were in 2015, decided by the European Union. But listen to the opposition, listen to the opposition actually, they would not change the policy so much. Perhaps this is very probable they would oppose the situation in which on the polish belarusian border, we have people in the forests who actually starve to death and freeze to death. This is what they oppose very strongly. They believe that if someone has crossed the fence, they should be helped in a legal and human way, humanitarian way. But as for whether they will uh uh welcome more uh more migrants, more refugees. I think what what is to be heard from the rhetoric of the polish opposition is always or ever more in the direction of, of denmark. So, so either uh uh a rational solution is is is found which will somehow be positioned between the constellation of factors. So European Values humanitarian, treating of newcom refugees, international law, but also the fear, the collective fear of people who are afraid of their world changing. So either a reasonable but also pragmatic solution is found or the populists will be winning in their world changing. So either a reasonable but also pragmatic European Countries one after another. So if politicians are not able to change policy as of now, and smugglers are the one deciding who will enter the eu has europe lost control completely. Its losing control and its not just control of migration. But as weve already been discussing, its losing control of the politics as well and that is incredibly dangerous. And as i said before, theres, theres big picture stuff about, we need a very grown up debate about migration and demographics and what kind of society um we all want to live in, in each of our Different Countries with all the disagreements of that debate that that would entail. But theres also some very practical things and just a couple of quick stats um to, to add at this point. So in germany alone, according to official stats, currently 280,000 migrants have had their applications rejected theyve gone through the process and they have been told they have to leave in the First Six Months of 2023 fewer than 8000 um were extradited, were sent out of the country. Now, the problem is that there, there is the wider question but when systems are not working i mean in the uk to cite another example where theres a very right wing shrill interior minister whos always um huffing and puffing about migration, but the system is broken, they cant even process applications, they cant remove people when their application is broken. So when systems, when the broken, they cant even process applications, they cant remove people basic practicalities dont work, that adds a further dimension into broken, they cant even process applications, they cant remove people these wider questions as well. Youve mentioned the uk. So id like to go to john d. Now uk is talking about prison ships. The uk is talking about sending people to rwanda. Thats not the most humane way to deal with the humanitarian crisis. Is it . Um well, not not every aspect of, of this policy is, is humane and there are many who disagree with every single aspect of it. Uh but i think its worth pausing to consider some of the elements that the uk has thrown into the debate and that others in europe are are also contemplating. So if you take a step back there there are two ways in which you can seek to reduce irregular arrivals. One weve seen and weve seen that it, it can work if you have the stomach for it is cruelty. The other is agreements with other countries of origin transit and perhaps third countries altogether that you can legally send people back to including Asylum Seekers because everyone probably applies for asylum. Uh and then you know what does legally mean . It means this has to be a country in which it is safe for them and they have access to a procedure. Could that country be rwanda . Well, possibly, possibly in a very revealing court of appeal judgment in the uk a few months ago, the uk said, well, theres nothing in principle wrong with sending an Asylum Seeker to a third country, but in practice does rwanda deliver what is necessary and it concluded . No but ok, theres the the start of something that you can possibly work on here in rwanda, possibly in in other countries as it happens for the uk, theres a much better solution, a much easier solution to implement which would be return to france. Very quick, very immediate return of people arriving to france. This requires a quid pro quo agreement with france, perhaps other eu countries probably not of people arriving to france. This requires a quid pro with the with the eu itself. Um but the idea that and, and this comes back to, to, to johns concern about returns. You cant transfer individuals to countries that dont want to cooperate with that return in any number uh and this is why so few people are returned to to to africa. If you want effective returns return policy, you need agreements with these countries that are in their interest that offer them something they want quite possibly large amounts of legal mobility. This is what you need with many west african subsaharan countries. If you want to large amounts of legal mobility. This is what you need be able to return to reduce the spike in arrivals that we havent discussed but on the greek islands. Well you need to look back at the what is the one thing that has worked in the last six years it was an agreement with turkey in 2016. How does the eu resuscitate that in a way that encourages turkey to take people back from greece, including Asylum Seekers, but in a way that they are looked after. Well, in turkey have access to an asylum procedure there and that turkey has an interest in, in, in respect. Thats the only way. Ok. We dont have time for more caroline ill give you the last word very quickly. Now, migration crisis is going to increase, especially because of Climate Change can there be a humane way to deal with it at all . 10 seconds . If there cannot be a human way . Are we still europeans, john . Absolutely. It comes down to what kind of societies do you want . What kind of societies can you afford . And what kind of societies can you sustain without there being social instability . Thank you whether lampedusa or new york europe or the us, will there be a solution to this global migration crisis in the near future . What do you think about it . If