Is saying it is possible the kremlin may have decided to end funding for the Wagner Mercenary group. Four years russia had denied the existence of the group, let alone funding it. But what has been shed on the relationship between the kremlin and wagner. At the end of june the russian president about how wagner had received 1 billion from the state. Now the British Military says the split between moscow and wagner is growing. So where would any move against the fighting forces finances leave it . We wouldnt leave russias interests in hotspots worldwide . We will explore those questions with our guests in a moment, but first, this report. Reporter they were hired to help russia fight its war in ukraine. Now, the Wagner Mercenary group may be dealing with its own financial battle. Britains Defense Ministry says it is possible moscow is no longer funding the private army, particularly after its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin led a failed mutiny in june against russias military leadership and questioned the authority of president putin. Without moscows backing, the private military is likely looking to downsize and restructure its finances. Going to belarus is perhaps part of that plan. I cannot give you a clear answer about whether the future of wagner lies here or there. I will say this, at present wagner is not fighting in ukraine. Elements of wagner have, in fact, moved to belarus. Reporter wagner set up a base and on the wrist last month, reportedly hired to train local troops. Neighboring poland thinks it is a ploy to destabilize the region and spell into its territory. Its deployed thousands of troops to the border with more on the way. We have to be ready for any scenario in the poland belarus border. That is why we decided to move the army closer to the border, to scare away the aggressor so it does not dare attack poland. Reporter african nations have long been a source of money for the wagner group. Many believe both russia and the private army will try to take advantage of the instability in niger following the recent coup. The group is most active in Central African republic, libya, mali, and sudan, all of which have fragile relationships with the west. It has often provided security and paramilitary insistence assistance. Instead of money, sometimes it has been paid with access to gold mines. As far as our collaboration with the wagner group, we have discussed the report the support has enabled the Central African republic to make progress in terms of security and it must continue. That is all i can say about that. Reporter political influence is perhaps another factor. For years, putin has used wagner mercenaries to promote russians Foreign Policy abroad, seemingly denying direct involvement. Now, leaders in africa and elsewhere may be forced to choose between russias leadership or the support of the wagner group. Sami lets bring our guests into the show. We have joining us from london patrick bury, a defense and Security Specialist at the university of bath. In moscow, sergei markov, a former public spokesman for president Vladimir Putin and director of the is a two of Political Studies director of the institute of Political Studies in moscow. And stefan wolff. A warm welcome to you all. If i can start with patrick. Patrick, the British Ministry of defense says it is possible the kremlin has decided to end funding for the wagner group. How much actual evidence do we see of that, though . Patrick it is an interesting one. Thanks for having us on the show. Defense intelligence, which is part of the ministry of defense, says it is realistically possible. So basically that puts it in the area of 40 to 50 . So they are not sure from using their sources. But what we have seen in terms of other open source reporting is that Prigozhins Wagner Group , obviously prigozhin is famous for being putins chef and supplying him in his early years for his catering business, then increasing that business around russia, in particular with contracts with the ministry of defense to fee the russian army. What we have seen since the war started was a lot of complaints online about the state of the food from conscripts and such turning and complaining about the lack of food or the quality of food they were given. Immediately after the rebellion in june, the coup, we could tolerate could call it potentially, the Russian Ministry of defense had put the pager in contract to prigozhin. So you can see that the impact between the mod and the wagner group of the rebellion has been to push those prigozhin business interests out from the minister of defense. That is one example of the evidence that we have. Sami sergei, is that the general picture you are seeing . Does it look let the russian state is beginning to cut back and end its funding to wagner . Sergei i think wagner group will be reorganized. Wagner group is the best private military group in the world. Everybody understands this. At the same time, wagner played an important tool in the ukrainian war. In the battle of bakhmut, wagner not just took back. Wagner was very important strategically in terms of time. Russian army needed time to prepare its defense line against attack of Ukrainian Army in july. Wagner give this to the russian army. Played an Important Role. Then Yevgeny Prigozhin [indiscernible] russian government needed their support to save such people who were part of the wagner group. They are not criminals. 80 of them are not criminals. They are former special troops. [indiscernible] also to use them in another country. Sami coming back to the point, do you see any indication now that the russian state is ending some of its contracts and funding to wagner . Sergei uh, no. This Financial Support decreased, but not stopped. Because the russian government now has to reorganize. 90 of them will be in ukraine and 10 will be used in different african and asian countries. Sami we will pick you up later on the point of reorganizing. Coming to sergei, is it clear coming to stefan, is it clearly kremlin has decided what to do with wagner and its leader, prigozhin . The reason i ask that, you look at some incidents that have happened since june, at one point we saw authorities raid the home of the wagner boss and seized a lot of money. But then they returned the money, 111 million, we are told. Why the backandforth . Stefan i think it is very hard to judge on what the kremlin has decided what to do with wagner. That would require a level of intelligence that certainly is not available on open sources. I think what we need to bear in mind here is that prigozhin and the Business Empire he has built over the years extends far beyond wagner. So, theres the wagner is sort of the headline news, if you want, and has been for many months now. But at the same time, the Global Network of offshore Shell Companies prigozhin has built over the years, still is very important for putin in terms of getting the sanctions regime tested on him. So actually getting stuff into russia increasingly depends on the types of Business Empires people like prigozhin have built. Sami so you are saying he is too valuable to completely eliminate . Stefan again, this is very hard to judge, because it is not entirely clear how much control the kremlin or anybody close to the kremlin could wrest from prigozhin over the bredth of his operations. But i would certainly say the very fact that prigozhin is still alive and seems to have a certain degree of freedom of movement would indicate that he still has significant value to the kremlin that putin has decided he is worth keeping around. Sami all right. We dont have anyone on the show who is very close to prigozhin, but we do have sergei, who was the public spokesperson to Vladimir Putin and close to the kremlin. Maybe we can ask you from your perspective and your understanding, sergei, why has t the russian president punished, as he put it, those responsible for treason, was the announcement made . Two months later we have seen no sign of that. Is that because prigozhin has proved to be too valuable because of the networks of commercial interest he has built up . Sergei prigozhin is not valuable now. Because as was mentioned before, wagner played a very Important Role last year. Sami why hasnt he been punished, then . Sergei because he is not guilty. There was a conflict between prigozhin and the russian Defense Ministry. Both sides were a little bit guilty. So it was not a rebellion against russian authorities. Sami sergei, help us understand, who did Vladimir Putin mean then when he said he would punish those who are treasonous . If he was not talking about wagner or prigozhin . Sergei you know, in the hours when wagner group, wagner fighters moved was very important to keep strong [indiscernible] after it was over, kremlin decided 90 of the wagner group should be taken from prigozhin, and they will stay to fight in ukrainian battlefield. But 10 will stay with prigozhin , and hes not any threat. Also, he kept personal loyalty to Vladimir Putin, to serve to the country. So no reason to punish that. What is the reason is to give big power to Yevgeny Prigozhin, because it is clear he already used this big power in the right direction. Now the wagner group, controlled by prigozhin, only 10 from previously. Sami lets bring patrick back in. Patrick, what we hear from sergei in moscow is prigozhin is not guilty of anything. To the question of do we see any sign in ending or cutting or downsizing state funding, no, sergei asays. A very different picture than what we are being presented by by western forces. Patrick theres two things going on. What we can all agree on is wagner and u. K. Defense intelligence are much more confident in that part of their assessment, they said it was likely, 55 to 75 , that wagner is undergoing a reorganization and restructuring. The next is how likely it is that funding from the russian state is being cut or cut completely. We are much less confident in that. My reading of it is, look, wagner and the russian mod were clearly not getting on, so there has been a decoupling there. Secondary to that is to get prigozhin and the bulk of wagner out of russia ukraine. So, tho deconflict and get them out of there. So some of them gone have gone to belarus. Sami how important then is state funding to the wagner group, if this is really going on . The opensource information you says suggests they are downsizing contracts with wagner group, is taht the lifeblood and survival of wagner, state contracts . Patrick some of the mod were for large numbers and therefore quite important. But if you look at wagner as a Global Enterprise and again, i dont have sources into this or any special insight, but what we do know is a lot of the deals they cut with the regimes they end up supporting in africa involve either access to resources in return for fighting or services, or just cash deals. So thats one element. They also further russian interests like the gru intelligence units, and work closely with them. We dont know the exact nature of that relationship at all, and why would we. That would be something for the intelligence services. But we know it exists, in opensource. And i would not be able to speak confidently how much of a monetary value they get from that element. Sami i can understand, it is very hard to put a number on this kind of question. But stefan, he did mention wagners network around the world. Mines, resources. Is that enough to keep the group afloat of how its relationship with the russian state goes . Stefan i would imagine so, because it worked well before the massive increase in state funding. Some of the numbers floating around in western media is the first 12 to 15 months of the war in ukraine, wagner received upwards of 1 billion of payments from the russian state budget. They say a lot of that was linked to the massive increase in troop numbers. So, the Recruitment Campaign that wagner carried out in russian prisons, tens of thousands of contractors that are being used in belarus. As sergei mentioned, the core of wagner really is maybe up to 5000 veterans of Russian Special services and elite units, and those have survived quite well before the war in ukraine, and i would imagine they would continue to survive quite well through mercenary services that they provide to various african regimes, the production to overseas russian interests, and so on. Plus, the close training of this operation with the commercial interests of prigozhin. I think that will keep his Business Empire as a whole quite well afloat, possibly for years to come. Sami sergei, you mentioned that in your reaading of the situation, russia has decided to reorganize wagner, i believe were your words. Does that include looking for other alternatives to wagner, other avenues or tools to extend russian power . Sergei i think that this private group, this military private group [indiscernible] without such an best session [indiscernible] i would say new private groups which possibly will be used by the russian government will be under more democratic control. More responsible people. Sami so you expect the growth of new private military groups . Sergei we dont know. This is not decided yet. What is decided is a new private military group its the hope they continue and hopefully be used. At the same time, a new decision about new groups have not been made yet. To exist, to abolish this, to create something new in such conditions i think no one would come to the president with that idea. So it means now the problem is something about 5 of wagner group in africa, 5 but 90 stay in russia. What to do with them . About 45,000 people. They are extremely professional. So how they should be organized . Either they should be kept altogether with their identity, or they should be divided to just another military unit. Its still in the process, and we dont see any evidence sami time will tell i guess. If i can bring patrick back in. What kind of alternatives does the com1 have in extending does the kremlin have in extending its power overseas . How vital is wagner group not only as a fighting force but also as stefan was explaining, a annexes of commercial interests . Patrick my reading of this is it does not potentially need that many. There are other options. They are smaller and less wellknown but also less capable than wagner. Sami do they have the same sort of network of Shell Companies that we are told . Patrick no. Sami in navigating western sanctions . Patrick no, they dont. If you look at what is happening sami does that make wagner still very special for the kremlin . Patrick yes, of course. Because if wagner have proven they are too close, they are dangerous. So where do both wagners interests and putins interests in the russian state online . They align if you put them in belarus to train the pollution forces, keep tabs on the shank of, and keep the keep taps on lukashenko, and keep the poles in order. They align if you do the same in niger. That is what is going on. It is where they are still useful. As long as wagner can fill those missions of four men think rebellion and siding with military autocracies in these places, it is a winwin for putin as well. The lesson is just dont have them too close. Sami sergei, do you think the appetite is growing in some parts of the world for russian influence, for wagner . In places like niger, weve heard its been reported nigers coup leaders have reached out to groups like wagner in areas like sudan. Sergei Everybody Knows that wagner group is best private Security Company in the world. Everybody knows this. Sami i think that might be more of a matter of opinion, might it not. You might get a different reading if you speak to some military analysts who look at some of the wagner operations in ukraine. Sergei uhh. As i understand, it is more or less some people say they are awful, they are devils, but almost everybody agrees that they are professionally doing their military job. Sami we will come to you in a minute patrick, let sergei finish your thought. Go ahead. Sergei with increasing instability in africa and more demands of such groups as wagner. It is absolutely very well known. They have a lot of suggestions for contracts in african countries. Sami patrick, i think you had a different perspective on this. Patrick i do not agree that wagner are the best private military Security Company in the world. No, that needs challenging. They have proven themselves especially in ukraine at their rapid rate of growth and their ability to integrate Russian Military systems, i. E. Given to them as the mod, as formidable, as large, as willing to take casualties. But if you are looking at private military Countries Companies from the west, they would obviously have pound for pound, especially the ones recruited from special forces, they are smaller but they would have a higher skill level and potentially a lower profile, and certainly a lower record of human rights abuses, etc. Sami lets bring in stefan. Does the kremlin have a choice to make here . In some areas if it is true what has been reported, that in some parts of the world they are looking for assistance from wagner, they are looking for russian influence, but at the same time if the kremlin has now got some second thoughts about wagner after the whole excursion in june, wagner has to make decisions about how it shapes stefan i completely agree. The choice the kremlin needs to make is what kind of influence it wants to project around the world and how this influence will play out in the long term. As we have seen at the russia africa summit in st. Petersburg at the end of june, that clearly wasnt event where russia tried to project that clearly was an that clearly was an event where russia tried to project an an image of leading the global south, which is generally more disaffected with the common duress of international order. At the same time the track record of russia in achieving this influence both commercial, economic development, and militarily, is not that great. If you look at the situation in wagner has been active there for quite some time and the security situation has not improved. Theres no real track record of wagner providing greater security. What they do do and what their value is, is they support regimes. Very narrow in these countries to retain their growth of power, and that is useful. Sami we are out of time so we have to leave it there. Lets think our guests very much. Stefan, sergei, and patrick. And thank you for watching. You can view the show again any time by visiting aljazeera. Com. For further discussion head over to facebook. Com ajinsidestory. You can also join the conversation on x. Com, our handle is ajinsidestory. From me, sami zeidan, and the entire team here, for now, its goodbye