In a standoff with the west and some of their neighbors, refusing to hand back power to the man they ousted. The countrys borders are closed but president Mohamed Bazoum has been in contact with the outside world. Speaking to u. S. Secretary of state antony blinken, among others. Changed times from only a few months ago, when blinken dropped by to visit niger, seen as an important u. S. Ally in west africa, but one whose allegiance is now uncertain. France has retained a military force in its former colony, but tens of thousands of supporters of the coup leaders rallied in the capital to protest against the french presence. They want foreign troops gone, but accuse france of exploiting nigers wealth of natural resources. We will assess the implications of the crisis with our guests in just a few moments, but first lets talk to our correspondent in neighboring nigeria, ahmed idris. Ahmed, how much support does this coup have within niger, and outside the country . Ahmed going by the demonstrations we saw over the past few days, or two weeks since the coup, its significant. But it is hard to compare with the support bazoum has, or the government of president bazoum has. Because remember, this is a man who was elected by a majority of votes into office. And of course also they are to be considered, the Civil Society who condemned the military coup in niger. So we can say the military leaders have significant support from a certain part of the population, especially in the capital which has been an opposition stronghold. Adrian so what are the implications of this coup, ahmed . Ahmed the implications are many. First of all, to the country itself. Since the coup, we have seen external donors, partners of niger helping in terms of food supplies, education, health care, delivery, water supply, and even agriculture, signifying their interest to cut aid. That has happened, and we will continue to see happening in the future. With their neighbors, trade has been closed. Borders have been closed and trade has been cut off with niger. Especially with nigeria, which sees electricity supplies from nigeria which supplies most of the electricity niger enjoys has been cut off. And so is economic and trade links. This is having a significant effect on the local population, on the local economy. What we see right now is that no more business transactions are happening across the borders of the two countries. Hundreds of people on a normal day will cross over into nigerian territory to stock up on supplies and go back to niger. But since the announcement of sanctions against niger by the Economic Community of west african states, weve seen a slowdown, or a complete shutdown of the border. So, no trade is happening. And apart from that, that will also put a lot of pressure on the local economy. We have seen inflation going through the roof. Adrian what are the chances of Regional Military intervention against the coup leaders . Ahmed well, more and more we see the authorities digging in. They dont have any intention of handing over power. We have seen from the early days of uncertainty, they have now established what seems like a government that they want to continue running on. Weve seen them appoint governors for the various regions, appointing mayors, ministers to help the government run its business. And then recently we have seen them appoint a prime minister. So that shows you that they are digging in for a long time. And experts, or analysts believe that as long as this is allowed to continue, it will be difficult to negotiate a return to democracy in niger. This is what we saw in countries like mali and burkina faso. It all started like this, and then suddenly we are in for a long wait for democracy to return to those countries. So, the threat of military force is still there, according to ecowas, but again, the appetite for immediate deployment of forces is not there. What we can see is that, yes, the threat of force is still on the table, but we dont know how soon they want to do that. Adrian al jazeeras ahmed idris reporting from abuja. Many thanks. The region of course is no stranger to military coups, which have toppled several governments in recent years. Niger is just the latest. Two weeks ago, Mohamed Bazoum was detained by members of his president ial guard. In august 2020, malis army ousted their president after mass antigovernment protests. An interim civilian government was appointed, but then forced out, and today mali remains under military rule. In september 2021, soldiers in neighboring guinea overthrew their president following a disputed election and his campaign for a third term. Last year in burkina faso, there was not one, but two coups within months of each other. An army captain remains in control there. Also last year, 11 people were killed during a failed coup in guineabissau. So lets bring in our guests for todays discussion. From abuja, were joined by idayat hassan, director of the center for democracy and Development Policy and Research Organization focusing on democracy and development in west africa. From london we are joined by alexis akwagyiram, who is the managing editor at news site semafor africa. And from washington, d. C. , cameron hudson, senior associate at the center for strategic and international studies. A warm welcome to you all. Cameron, lets start with you. How rapidly is the window to solve the crisis in niger diplomatically closing . Cameron it is probably already closed. My sense from the events of the last just 24 hours from the junta in niger, appointing a civilian prime minister, appointing a civilian cabinet to help administer affairs of state. I suspect that very quickly they are going to announce an 18month or 24month transition to do elections. They have been avoiding negotiating with american officials, with regional officials from ecowas, because they want to present the world with a fait accompli. They dont want to negotiate with the international community. The terms of a restoration of either president bazoum or democracy in the country. They want to present us with their terms for how the country will be administered, and leave it open to us to try to negotiate or walk back what has already happened. So i think the quicker that washington and others acknowledge the facts on the ground, i think the more progress we can get made in trying to talk to these coup leaders. Because right now there is absolutely no progress being made in trying to engage them. Adrian alexis, would you agree with that, and will ecowas intervene militarily . I mean, it has a pretty shaky history when it comes to restoring order in countries embroiled in conflict. What are the risks of military intervention in niger . Alexis first of all, i agree with everything cameron said. I think the window ultimately is closing rapidly, if it has not closed completely. I think in terms of ecowas intervening, i do not think they will intervene militarily. They have said repeatedly that is a last resort. I think, if anything, they were probably hasty in offering that as a solution at some stage. The risk now for them is that they are going to be in a situation or they are in a situation whereby their bark being perceived is far worse than its bite. And they are going to be looking for some kind of diplomatic solution, some way in which they can walk back from just putting that threat on the table. So they will want to do that. I dont know how they are going to manage to do that, it is going to be tricky. This is all going to come out presumably when they meet tomorrow in abuja to discuss the way forward. It would be very tricky to try and pull off some kind of military intervention simply because, first of all, even before we get to the logistics, these heads of state in ecowas need the buyin of their own people. Specifically nigeria does, being the Largest Force and the biggest pot of money behind ecowas. Now, already we have seen the Nigerian Senate have said that they do not give this their backing. So even before you look at the terrain, the vast size of niger, and how this would happen on the ground, you still have to get past the political barrier. Once you get past that, i dont think there really is an appetite for this. It would be very unpopular domestically for a number of these countries. And then they would be trying to install a president who is no longer particularly popular, because clearly there is a groundswell of support for what the junta has done. So i think it would be very tricky. Adrian ok. Idayat, do you agree with what you have just heard . How can this be solved diplomatically . Is this an internal dispute between nigerian elite . Is there actually broad, Popular Support for what they have done . Idayat i think there is actually nothing like a good coup. Even though this coup has been sourced through us, it is a good coup. It cannot be corrected. Of late, were also aware of the fact that Popular Supports are engineered, they are bought. They are bought by mobs or protests. [indiscernible] but i think theres a mixture of things that are responsible for the coup detat. There are identity issues that place and of course the weaponization of antiwestern feelings have, come up very strongly to make some to support the coup detat. But were here where we are, and diplomacy will remain the best way out of this impasse. Adrian cameron, niger plays an Important Role in the uss Counterterrorism Operations in the region. Why is the u. S. Not declaring what happened in niger a coup . Cameron it hasnt because it wants to keep its options open. As soon as the state department declares it has been a coup in the country, there requires an automatic suspension of the kind of military assistance, both intelligence provision but also the training and equipping that we are doing with counterterrorism units in the country. That gets suspended virtually immediately. And so, i think washington wants to try and preserve that for as long as it can. And again, it is sticking to this notion that the window for diplomacy remains open. They are holding out hope that they can somehow reverse this and go back to a status quo of two weeks ago. But i think as the days go on, that reality looks like it is less and less likely, and they are going to be faced with a choice as to whether or not they declare this a coup. And then they are going to have to be faced with another choice, which is, whether or not despite the coup, they continue to maintain counterterrorism cooperation with the military junta. And again, i think this will be a set of hard choices that washington has to make. It espouses democratic suppose in these countries, but it also has hard security interests that it wants to pursue. And so how it balances those two kind of competing priorities in a case like niger is something that washington has not wanted to have to decide on, and that is why it is holding fast to this idea that it is a military takeover but it is not a coup. Adrian you talk about these hard Strategic Priorities that exist in niger for the u. S. , though, cameron. How determined is the u. S. To stay in niger . How important is it . What is it that the u. S. Is doing in niger . Could you foresee a situation where the u. S. Would ever get involved militarily . Cameron no, i cannot see a situation where the u. S. Would get involved militarily. Lets remember that in 2017, four u. S. Servicemen were killed in niger conducting Counterterrorism Operations on their own. Ever since that moment, washington has taken a big step back in terms of being on the front lines in this counterterrorism fight. They are providing training, equipment, and assistance through intelligence support to the Nigerian Military and to other militaries in the region, but they are no longer on the front lines of the counterterrorism battle. I think thats deeply unpopular and misunderstood, frankly, by the american public, and i dont see that as a step that washington is going to be willing to take if it loses its partnership with the Nigerian Military. Adrian alexis, acting u. S. Deputy secretary of state Victoria Nuland traveled to niger on monday to speak with coup leaders. She described their talks as extremely frank, and at times quite difficult. What are the coup leaders options right now . They have rejected attempts to mediate a way out of this crisis. How much room for maneuver do they have . What is their strategy moving forward, do you think . Alexis they could continue the same strategy which they have employed, which is essentially to say nothing and to not deal with those who are trying to seek negotiations. Because ultimately the ball is in ecowass court. They probably made the calculation that the west, particularly the u. S. And france, do not want to be seen to get involved, because so much of this has been stoked by antiwestern sentiment. So as well as that, that ecowas were the ones who put on the table that military intervention would be an option. So therefore, it actually plays into the juntas best interest to say nothing to those who are trying to negotiate with them, and rather to talk to those who might be some allies in some way, shape, or form, be they burkina faso, mali, or even the russians. So i mean, i imagine that is probably what they are looking to do. In terms of other options, i think cameron alluded to this earlier, what they can do is say, look, if people want some form of democratic transition, then we will set the terms, we will dictate how that happens. We will not be dictated to. So in order to do that, all they have to do is to make appointments, which we have seen them doing, and then present a form of response which is, you can have your transition, this is how it is going to play out. And then that way they get what they want, but they get what they want on their own terms. Adrian idayat, how dangerous a moment is this for the wider region . If there was any kind of military intervention in niger, how would that play out in neighboring countries . Do you think that there will ultimately be a democratic transition in niger once again . I mean, how long is it going to take . Look at what has happened elsewhere in the region. Idayat niger will want to play this the way burkina, guinea, and mali have played this. And when you look at mali, you saw there was a ratification coup. And in burkina we had a countercoup. So they want to play this by their own rules, dictating the terms as earlier stated, and not by what ecowas or any other partners will say. And i also think that niger has actually weighed their options. They see how important they are to the western world. They know how they actually host the troops, the military basics for most of these western powers. How important they are for nigeria, for instance. 60 of nigerians live around the nigerian border. They are brothers, the same way they are brothers. A people to people relationship with nigeria, with burkina, with mali. Which makes it an extremely difficult terrain to actually do an interference. Any form of interference, boots on ground, will further impact the insecurity that is actualy plaguing many parts of west africa and the sahara itself. Its already a food insecure government as well. [indiscernible] its like a catch22, and i am sure that they know this, they have this in mind, and it is actually driving their own response. This is why they can dictate to us, and we will have to actually have to find a way to nip in the bud. It is not just about diplomacy. This coup is quite important because we are talking about 50 out of the eight countries now under a military regime, which represents a lot of stress for west africa and the remaining part of west africa itself. Adrian alexis, i know you wanted to come in there. Four ecowas member nations are ruled by selfimposed military leaders right now and are suspended from the body. Two of those countries, burkina faso and mali, are supporting the coup in niger. What are you to make of that . Alexis i think that is a product of selfpreservation, ultimately, because they know that if they do not show a force of strength and show a united front, then they could be next. Because if ecowas were to follow through with their threat and to really crackdown on niger, particularly militarily, they know they would be next on the firing lines. So that is what i make of that. I dont believe that there is necessarily a genuine united front. And even if there were, i just think that they are all already stretched on their own fronts. Because the thing that we have not touched on is the fact that these countries, what unifies them, is the threat they all face from islamist insurgents. So, mali, burkina faso, they are both already stretched militarily in terms of fighting those insurgencies. And so, i think ultimately they dont have the resources to really come and present a united front with boots on the ground to support any kind of action. Adrian all right. Cameron, how long then before a return to democracy in niger, if there is a transition from military rule . Will economic sanctions enough to push this forward rapidly . When military paychecks dont get paid, will the coup leaders be able to retain the support of the rankandfile military . Cameron well, thats going to be a hard question to answer right now. I think it is worth remembering that this coup, even though it was led by the president ial guard, within a matter of hours the president ial guard was able to bring on board all of the Service Chiefs from all of the different wings and units of the military. So this is not a junior officer coup. This is a senior officer coup. It has the support of what seems to be the entire armed forces in the country. But again, i think the question is, as the sanctions imposed by ecowas, as the Development Assistance that has been cut off from the u. S. And european partners, as that all begins to bite, and you see, as we heard before, inflation start to rise, electricity rates going lower, business is being affected, people not being able to travel, students not being able to go abroad for classes. These kinds of things that are going to affect everyday people in the country and their pocketbooks and their bank accounts, i think then you are going to start to see perhaps some pressure on the junta leaders. But again, lets remember, the junta leaders have appointed a respected economist to serve as the prime minister. They are hoping that they can circumvent some of the pain of the sanctions by reimposing democratic ministers in the government to run the government. They will be looking for other partners. Clearly in mali, niger, but also perhaps in russia, and others who they can continue to trade with. So again, i think there is now, given the number of coups that have happened in the region, there are a number of alternatives that countries have been employing to get around the pain of isolation and the pain imposed by sanctions. And i think niger will likely try to follow that same path. Adrian alexis, Russias Wagner group is active in the region. It stands accused of sowing instability and of committing war crimes there. There are reports that nigers coup leaders have exchanged supportive signals with the wagner group. What are the implications of that for the u. S. And the wider region, if wagner is brought into niger . Alexis i think the implications for the wider region and for the u. S. Is that this could be not only a loss of the wests closest ally in the region, but then also, another staging post for russia and for wagner to just deepen its influence and deepen its roots. We have seen this in a number of countries already. They have been called in in mali, and mali have pushed out the french troops, they have pushed out the u. N. Peacekeepers. We have seen them in Central African republic. They have got a presence in sudan. So, i mean, ultimately we could see russians having access to the drone base that the u. S. Have there. France also has a base there. And then beyond that, it is just a deepening in terms of the propaganda war and the power and influence that russia can have in the region. So, i think that ultimately is what is at stake here. Adrian cameron, do you have any thoughts on that . Cameron well you know, i think that russia, the role of russia i think has been overstated up to this point. I dont think that russia has the ability to really change the course of events, or to engineer these events in the country. The idea that these russian flags have appeared at the protests in the last week i think is more of a statement of antifrench sentiment than it is prorussian sentiment at this point. I think it is shorthand for antifrance at this point. And so, obviously russians are great opportunists. They are going to look at this opportunity now to drive a wedge between niger and its western partners and look to exploit that. But again, i think washington has been very clear this week with the visit of the state Department Official that any cooperation with the wagner group would be a redline for washington. And if they hope that they will be able to maintain some kind of military partnership with washington, it can only occur if there is no wagner in the country. Adrian idayat, picking up on what cameron was saying there about antifrench sentiment, 78 of the coups in Subsaharan Africa since 1990 taking place in francophone states. Is it too simplistic to say that the recent trend of coups in west africa reflect the legacy of French Colonial rule . Or has each and every coup in these states been driven solely by domestic issues and regional insecurity . Idayat i think its a combination. I think regional insecurity is top of the table. When you look at the last three of the coups, insecurity, problematic elections has also reflected to the coup detat. The freedom of democracy to deliver developments to the people in terms of public goods and services [indiscernible] antifrench feelings, which in the last couple of years have heightened in these countries. Some might believe they are also weaponized. But there is a lot of disinformation on the ground that is allowing this to fester and to actually gain ground in the hearts of the people. And the question people often raise all the time is what is their sense of democracy, if it cannot actually deliver public goods and services to them, leading to things as basic as insecurity which is what is on the table in niger. Making it to look like its a good coup. But its one that is actually dangerous for the whole of west africa. Particularly when you look at what adrian alexis, perhaps you would like to pick up on what idayat was saying there. Niger has experienced a series of coups since 1974. Is there anything to set this latest one apart from the others, or is it part of a pattern . Alexis it is part of a pattern, but i think what really sets this apart is just the timing and the fact that this was a point in time in which niger was very much seen as an oasis of calm. I mean, i say oasis of calm, obviously they have been going through an insurgency, but it is all relative. And in the context of the other dominoes that have fallen in the region, i think that is what sets it apart. I think the other thing that sets it apart is the demographic issue. Ultimately, on many indices, this is one of the worlds poorest countries. And right now theres an infection point whereby there are around 24 million people, and that population is expected to pretty much triple by 2050. So, at this point in time, whats different is before there had been a series of coups, and there had been unrest, whereas there had been a democratic transition two years ago, the first one of its kind in the country, and there was an opportunity to have accountable governance. It is a very young population, and people do not have a lot of money. So, there was a real opportunity at this moment in time for the country to have good health care, and better education, a better standard of living. Now, the difficulty that we have now is, if you dont have accountable governance, then theres not necessarily forward planning that is needed to turbocharge the development the country may need. Adrian cameron, we have got about a minute left. Would you agree with that . How do you see all this panning out in the days and weeks ahead . Cameron i think that, you know, one thing that we are seeing right now is a sense that this country is reclaiming its sovereignty. That word, sovereignty, has been used a lot in the local press recently, and by the junta leaders. And there is a real appeal to public sentiment around this idea of sovereignty. And so, i think that the bloom is going to come off of that relatively quickly, as people realize what they are giving up when they take that sovereignty back in that way. The things that are associated with that, the Development Assistance, as alexis was saying, all of the programs that improve health care, improve security, improve education, improve livelihoods. Those are all being put at risk right now, and those are risks that the junta is willing to take, but i am not sure that over the long term the population is going to be particularly happy with having that tradeoff made on their behalf. Adrian ok, there we must leave it, im afraid. Many thanks indeed for taking part in todays program. Idayat hassan, alexis akwagyiram, and cameron hudson. As always, thank you for watching. You can see the program again at any time by going to the website at aljazeera. Com. For further discussion, join us at our Facebook Page at facebook. Com ajinsidestory. And you can join the conversation on twitter, our handle, ajinsidestory. From me, adrian finighan, and the team here in doha, thanks for watching. Well see you again. Bye for now. Ic playing] artbound was made possible in part by expore. Org, the Los Angeles County arts commission, department of cultural affairs, city los angeles, boeing, the california endowment, the california humanities, the National Endowment for the arts. And the james irvine foundation