Transcripts For LINKTV Inside Story 20240711

Dont know his motive. It is totally irresponsible. More americans are in hospital with coronavirus than at any time in the pandemic so far. 79,000 people are admitted as infection rates climb. Schools have been shot in new york city to curb the spread. In california, there is a curfew. Americans have been advised not to travel for the thanksgiving holiday. Mike pompeo has become the first u. S. Secretary of state to visit an illegal israeli sentiment. It is the latest and most controversial leg of his tenday tour of the middle east and europe. 16 people have been killed in uganda during protests sparked by the arrest of the opposition leader. 350 were arrested. Supporters of the pop star turned politician. The fight for ethiopia is moving closer to the capital. The Prime Minister says his forces are closing in. He has promised to bring back more than 30,000 refugees that fled to sudan. Eu leaders are in a standoff, putting a relief package in jeopardy. Officials are anxious to approve the budget which includes 880 7 billion in support for economies to recover from the pandemic. The news continues on al jazeera. Is the u. S. President rushing toward policy decisions before leaving office . Donald trump is considering tougher action on iran. With only two months left, what legacy could he leave for joe biden . This is inside story. Hello. Promising to bring troops home is the kind of thing which can help win an election. 2020 donald trump has already lost and as they scramble to bring forces back to the United States before he leaves office in two months. Christopher miller made the announcement on tuesday after speculation. The plan is to bring troop numbers down to 2500 in both countries, a reduction of 2000 and afghanistan and 500 in iraq. To do that by january 15 of next year. That would be five days before joe biden would become president and commanderinchief of the armed forces. You might think this would be be type of thing that would draw support from the Republican Party as he battles to leave some sort of legacy. Have a listen to mitch mcconnell, usually an ardent backer of the president. A rapid withdrawal of u. S. Forces from afghanistan now would hurt our allies and delight the people that wish us harm. Violence is still rampant. The taliban is not abiding by the conditions of the socalled peace deal. The consequences of a premature american exit might be worse than the withdrawal from iraq in 2011. Which fueled the rise of isis and a new round of global terrorism. Here is how the troop numbers in afghanistan have looked since the invasion in 2001, a big surge under president obama. It reached a peak in 2011. There were some big cats, down to 10,000 troops and then under trump some modest increases. When you look at the bigger picture, this is all american troops overseen, on the decline over four years, including when trump took office. Donald trump may be considering moves on other issues as well. Senior advisers managed to talk the president out of a military strike on the nuclear site, calling it could trigger a wider conflict. It is a major demand from saudi arabia, but the u. N. And u. S. Allies like germany oppose this. All right, heres todays panel. The Founding Member of the Afghanistan Affairs unit think tank. In washington, d. C. , a Senior Program officer on afghanistan. And a regular contributor here and the director of Political Studies at the arab center for policy studies. Thank you for joining us. Johnny, i will start to you. Stories from the white house, i figured there are two ways to look at this, this is donald trump saying doing what he said he would, or hes doing it because hes run out of time and need something these last two months. Probably the latter, isnt it . It is consistent with what his instincts have pointed him toward since the beginning, even when he announced an increase in troops at the beginning of his presidency. He said his instincts were in the opposite direction. The main thing that has prevented complete withdrawal of troops previously and now is the fact that Peace Process President Trump had a role in authorizing has made more progress than one might have expected. That is one of the main reasons giving incentive to keep the latest numbers, 2500 down from 4500. I suspect while this allows trump to say he has made a further reduction, it doesnt change the strategic situation at the negotiating table because the u. S. Has a lot of leverage with the number of troops and the taliban cant win a war, they have to negotiate with that many troops in the country. Tell me about that leverage, because troops that are there to support and train the Afghan Security forces, so they can do their job, tell me about that. I am not a military planner. We will have to see what general miller decides to do with those 2500. That is still tied for the Largest Military combat commitment. That gives a considerable platform to train Afghan Forces, and take strikes at terrorist groups, and to provide air support as needed, if there are major engagements on the ground, and prevent any insurgent groups from swarming a major city or threatening a large contingent of Afghan Forces. It has been true for a long time, they are the majority of the fighters. With the small amount of enablers, which means air support, medical evacuation, you can make a difference in the fortunes on the battlefield. The taliban recognizes that. Even at this number, it constrains any gains they could make on the battlefield. That is one of the core dynamics that encourages all sides to negotiate. The war is very stalemated with no side having prospect of a victory. Talks are a better alternative. Ok. Johnny is explaining the Afghan Forces are doing a lot of the work themselves and the u. S. Forces are important. What is your take . How significant is it to have 2500 troops there . As far as the combat mission, confronting the taliban, we know since 2014, all of the Afghan Forces have been battling them, keeping them at bay from all the objectives after the 2014 military withdrawal of international forces. If it shows the Afghan Government, toward the state institutions, and a continuation of that has always given the political morale to the military, to be fighting forces of the national police, who are seeing challenges across the country. These decisions have had an impact on both sides. It has given the taliban more carriage courage to challenge the states and antigovernment systems. And all the others has sent a message to be allied forces that they are dying down. Considering the fact we recognize trump has been a personality with a lot of radical decisionmaking, and during his later part of the term, which is ending in a couple of months, there is a feeling in afghanistan hes giving a lastditch effort to get something out of his term. Sorry to interrupt you. Do you agree with the likes of nato and some eu countries that are allies of the United States and voicing concern about this drawdown . Saying it needs to be done in a more measured way . Indeed. That is the feeling of the Afghan People and the government. Ofourse E International forces, one day, that they is not far away. As far as Community Strategy about afghanistan. They have to let the afghans make a gradual shift. The gradual handover of responsibilities. Now we are in a critical stage where the peace negotiations are going on. And its all about political leverage, political support. Which is going to help both sides make decisions that can contribute. Radical decisionmaking like this can disrupt and give courage to one side to do a lot of brinksmanship and try to have more concessions on the negotiating table, rather than an objective negotiation. It is going to have an impact on this. Nato has raised that concern. I need your help because i cant decide. Theres a lot of good arguments here. One says the troops have been drawing down a long time. The Afghan Forces have been in charge a long time. And this other idea that a quick decision like this leaves a void. Which do you think it is . I think we have to think of this decision very much like it is driven by domestic partners. President trump made the election promise to withdraw troops from afghanistan and iraq and end endless wars. I think he was surprised he won the election. So this is white he is accelerating the withdrawal. Regardless of the consequences. He just wants to cut and run. The idea is his military is not allowing him to do it. He tried to do it in syria last year during the phone call with the president of afghan when he surprised almost everybody, including his secretary of defense. He decided to bring in troops from syria. I think now he is firing everybody who is opposing his policy. He fired his secretary last week because Everybody Knows he was trying to control the withdrawal of u. S. Forces from afghanistan. He thought such a hasty withdrawal would have very bad consequences for the National Interests of the United States and his allies. It would give the impression the United States does not care about their allies. It is abandoning them because most probably if they were to withdraw today, the taliban would take over. We know that. In iraq, we know the hasty withdrawal by troops would also lead to expanding the influence of iran. The u. S. Withdraw from any region of the world actually is leading toward increasing competition between rivalries. In iraq, you have iran, turkey, saudi arabia, europe pakistan, you have russia. China and india. Everybody is concerned. The u. S. Allies in europe, underground, in afghanistan, in iraq, they are concerned about what the president might be doing from now until january 20 when he leaves office. The main idea, this policy is completely driven by domestic calculations by the president. Most probably he wants to tell his supporters, i almost fulfilled all the promises i made in my campaign. This is my legacy. Probably he will run in 20 24th. He will bring all these issues back and say when i was president , i did this and that. I will come back to you on other issues in iraq and iran. Johnny, the peace talks. There was the deal which the u. S. Signed with the taliban and the ongoing afghan peace talks. How much more important did those become when you have this specter of more troop withdrawal . The peace talks were the only realistic prospect of a happy ending to the war in afghanistan. They remain the only realistic prospect now. As i mentioned, the battlefield is at a stalemate. Perhaps it would break if the u. S. Withdrew altogether. I dont know. It was historic the Afghan Government and taliban started negotiating with each other for the first time in the decades of conflict couple of months ago. Many have pointed out the ways those talks have slowed down. They have. I dont think anyone should be surprised. Such a difficult conflict is coming to the negotiating table for the first time. Theres an opportunity here. The u. S. , with a smaller presence, has quite a bit of leverage on both sides to keep nudging them toward a deal. Ultimately the size have to make their own decision. No external party can make it for them. This will take time. Months and months. It is the most important thing going in the afghan political scene and it does have some chance of ending the conflict. I was looking back at the deal the u. S. And taliban signed in february. The u. S. Would agree to a full withdrawal if the taliban would commute keep its commitments, what are those commitments . Are they being cap . With this drawdown actually help the situation . In theory . As far as meeting the agreement requirements, they were major agreements where the taliban are preparing to talk to the Afghan Government. But you know, the last six months has put everybody off. The belief, the hope that was attached to the Peace Process has been damaged. People were expecting the promise on the negotiation table, a reduction in violence that would allow them to get stronger and strengthen. Unfortunately we have seen significant spikes in all parts of the country. They are trying to take over. That was the situation right now. As far as the agreement, there were couple of issues. The americans agreed to withdraw if the security situation allows it. Then we see there was a news report and local media that went out. There was a u. N. Report that suggested the nationstate could remain active between the taliban and al qaeda. This has created a situation where the feeling is once the Biden Administration comes into the Peace Process, they take over from trump, they will review the process. That is the expectation. To see the Trump Administration conceded so much ground to be taliban, not agreeing to any terms and really challenging the legitimacy of the Afghan Government. It is believed they will change. Although the current Peace Process will continue and the americans will stick to what has already been agreed. And then the terms that have been set up in the agreement will need a review and the expectation is the biden adminiration will look into it and make sure the taliban present themselves meeting the terms of the agreement. I am conscious of the time. I want to bring in another guest. We focus so much on afghanistan obviously. Iraq and iran and yemen are other foreign policies at the moment. I ran first of all. This report donald trump had to be talked out of attacking the Iranian Nuclear facility. What would that have achieved . I read that article by the New York Times on iran. There are two versions of the story. One says it was actually the russian advisor who presented the option including military action. In the other the president looked at. That person says trump ordered to bring him options to deal with iran. Regardless, i dont think trump is going to use military action against iran in his final days. This man has been very reluctant to use force in his foreignpolicy. Mostly he will go for tightening sanctions, most probably he might be going for a cyberattack. I dont think hes going to get the u. S. Involved in another military action, especially any sort of that action would probably lead to fullfledged war with the iranians. This is not something donald is prepared to do. Everybody is concerned he might or the state Department Might classify the who the as a terrorist organization. He would be hampering the efforts of joe biden to end the war in yemen. Joe biden makes ending the war when his fist top roadies. Possibly he can complicate the mission of his successor. But i dont expect him actually to go for military action. He does not want more involvement in the region. This is why im not convinced with the argument hes going to take military action before he leaves office. Can i ask about iraq . We focus on afghanistan. There will be be same number of troops in iraq. As soon as the announcements was made, you had rockets hitting the green zone. Mike pompeo wanted to pull Embassy Staff out as well. Clearly the situation is volatile. The iranians want to show the withdrawal as a victory between iran and its allies. As if they forced the United States to withdraw. They made the promise after the assassination by u. S. Forces in baghdad airport. We all know the iranians made a strong statement against the United States, wanting americans to withdraw and ordering their allies to put pressure on the americans. If trump is pulling troops now out of iraq, they want to make sure this is going to, this might lead to a return of isil one more time. An agreement led to the emergence of isil. That turned al qaeda into isil. We will start this vicious circle one more time. Isil fights back. The United States will fight isolate and so on. Johnny, i am going to leave it with you. Fastforward, President Biden is in office. The troops may be have come home by then. What does he do . How does foreignpolicy figure into his administration . One thing that distinguishes joe biden from his predecessors as he comes into office with foreignpolicy experience and with contacts around the world in the conflicts we are talking about. He has more ability to tackle problems early. Moreover, if there is a deadlock between capitol hill, it is harder to get domestic things done. Many argue that incentivizes foreignpolicy efforts. There are several priorities where there is a deadline. The most immediate is the Nuclear Issue with russia. Whether the treaty can be extended or renegotiated. Afghanistan is another one. There is this may deadline by which all troops are supposed to be gone. Regardless of what troop number trump leaves biden with, they will have to take a look at whether it thinks the taliban have agreed with the agreement and what it has to do to move forward. It is likely the biden team will stick with some version of the deal and we will see negotiations as the only or best option for afghanistan and all of its efforts have to make a Peace Process work. That is johnny walsh from the United States institute from peace along with my other guests. Gentlemen, thank you for joining us. And to you, wherever and however you are watching, we are online on al jazeera. Com. Also facebook. Com and twitter. Hope you have enjoyed the show. Thank you for joining us. See you again soon. Rbr woman we love food. We all eat food. Food is yummy. However, do we think about the relationship we have to food or the relationship of food to the world at large and our society . Current la food was a public art triennial that looked at art and looked at food, and it was an opportunity to look at the multiple dimensions of food through the perspective of artists. Artists are really good at stepping back and looking at whats happening and then representing these ideas in new ways. The artists were given the thof