Tensions are running high and has being told. Off war. So question quadriga this week is kashmir crisis new aero full power grab and to discuss not question. Im joined here in the studio by cristiano wagner. A senior fellow with the German Institute for international and security of fast specializing on south asia. He saves a lasting solution to the kashmir question will only be possible if. There are no for the changes in the region. Also with us is george of ellis shows have cheated on me all three d. W. Other desk and believes that. Once the curfew is lifted the situation in kashmir can boil over and lead to violence. And a very warm welcome to another of dws regional exposition about tia from hindi desk. Additional argues that the process of Economic Development in the region cannot take place without including the local people. And fatal feeling. Very insecure about their future. Thank you all three for being here today wonderful that i speaking if you issue on a on a fundamental question why is cash mia so importance to india. This survey import very famous saying. A poem actually says so if theres spotted ice on oat its here its here its here and that was written in the thirteenth century even the twenty First Century now but the emotion still remains seem so gosh me more than just a data to reason emotion for both india and bug son. And since nineteen forty seven we havent left it its an emotion in such a manner that if i talk about my generation weve grown up which is absolutely essential. To the indian identity its. Essential to both india and pakistan. So i would say for my generation weve grown up watching movies have you celebrated board and weve taken a lot of pride in the fact that be beaten bug a son and bore for us is the equivalent of a cricket match. That you have to win if you dont care the people like a dying there. And now its the same sentiment. That you see after the article three seventy was revoked if you look at the language and social media if you look at the trends on twitter. Its sad in a way that. People of course me when a loss what they wanted but the rest of the countrys really celebrating because its so much important to the identity that finally we have it. Okay shows up turning the question. Round ones cashmere so important to pakistan. But of football gaston. It has beenn an unresolved issue from the time of partition when both boxed on in india. Of a created in nineteen forty seven. August on has a shape its Foreign Policy. The around the issue of cost me. Well it has had you know. At least two direct wars with india. And another of military conflict in nineteen ninety nine and cargo. So gosh me has been central to songs National Security paradigm. It has prevented both india. And boxed on to become friends to have normal relations. And for bugs tonys it is an emotive issue because they genuinely believe that chris metes out being oppressed by the indian army. Of for a long time boxing was supporting the committees by arming them. Of but theres also this genuine believe that gosh metes are muslims they identify with us given the choice david join focused on. Men box tonys believe that that choice was always denied by india. I wonder what Kristin Wagner has to say about all this i was talking to and eighty an indian commentating here in berlin this week and she told me that. Things will never be the same after recent events that that the events of the last two weeks or so is that an estimation your share of the gravity of the crisis at the moment. Yes i would say things have changed fundamental. Also i would argue that i see the changes more in the context of some the engine off and just democratic system because the decision of the more the government to review a book to special status has far reaching. Implications not only for me yes but also on the debate in india on federalism into a hole this. Change has been done. And with. Regard to the ongoingg debate on secularism in india from the International Side from the Foreign Policy side. In just position has not changed so they still see coach mia as a bilateral issue was. Pakistan but as weve seen over the last couple of years the new government is not interested to go into any formal for negotiation with pakistan on any. Issue and not. On on this issue. Issue another link. Yeah i totally agree to him we do not see that all the windows been saying that its a bilateral issue and we have to talk about his son and only then we can solve it but after this of after looking out to go three seventy on thirty five a now does not going to be any discussion and that israeli tia and that belongs to this not a two of that of not in the mood to give even before he was elected in two thousand and fourteen. That hes dead to bring about changes the narrative was that nothing has happened in the last seventy Years Congress was dead and never did anything to india is there but it was in nineteen forty seven and hell comes the savior here comes the man whos going to change everything and thats a big change of he would of course take credit for that nobody else none of the government ever managed to do something as big as this and they found all the loopholes they found on the legalities. And they did it which nobody had talked about it it came as a surprise its interesting when you talk about the narrative i have a mister mode he came out and said did this week he said we as a nation as a family have taken an historic decision thats pretty telling language talking about the nation as a family it sounds there are real issues there about inclusive and exclusive shes a virgin of the indian all opposition leaders have called it a historical blunder. As christian was saying there are serious concerns in india and the manner in which it is done so for example. Lets kind of break it down you know what has been done. So one of the laws of it has existed to all these years. Give protection to native population and cashmere in terms of Property Rights and so on so forth that has been scrapped no thats not unique to catch me there are other Indian States where it exists like. Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand on job. And that existed because theres a particular dynamics data and the government wanted to protect that thats gone now and the biggest fear is that. Hindu pundits who had to leave. A jumble you know two decades ago may not b be resettled and essentially the biggest fear is that the majority even now turning to minority. And this is a political and social engineering and that more the more Prime Minister mode even not stop dan. If you can get away with this one he will then focus on other parts of india of air you know there are certain secessionist. Tendencies so for india internally. Its true issue is absolutely right that the majority celebrating because of that and the movie is popular popular populist. Nationalist yet there are worries are in among journalists among opposition leaders among civil rights leaders. That this could lead in a knot in the long run. Unraveling of india secular liberal inclusive character. A lot of nothing going on here but they thought we were going to talk about the future of this lets just go a little bit back in time the kashmir conflict has of course been raging for decades. Letss go back to e e timehen n it starteted. The mountainous regin of kashmir hasas long been home to him do this when it began to be islamized in the thirteenth century. Thatats somethihing hu nationalists have never accepted. For them catch me is the land of the hindu goddess saraswati. The conflict over kashmir began in nineteen forty seven at the end of British Colonial rule. India and pakistan both claim the region as their own triggering their first war for control of muslim majority kashmir. Afterr the war ended in nineteen forty eight cashmere was divided between india and pakistan. So the line of control has never officially been recognized as the border. Pakistan has more or less openly supported muslim separatists in kashmir ever since. Thats led to three moe wars numerous outbreaks of violence. And terror attacks like the one on the Indian Parliament in delhi in two thousand one. And the mumbai attacks of two thousand eight. The stakes a are higher than evr now that both india and pakistan are nuclear states. As cashmere lost its a tiny me for good. That is indeed the question shows oppose cashmere listed so told me forever now has it gone. It seems that free arm especially because if you look at the world reaction to this. Hardly any major World Capital has been. Has condemned it inc in clear terms. And august on the essentially was caught by surprise that. The Prime Minister of india can actually go ahead and do this i mean weve known all along that it was part of the Party Manifesto it could to expose the fed was their desire for lost fifty years. But that actually he will do it. And now that its done box on his struggling to find out how we can react because now im guessing this is our internal matter the reaction has been described as of june what is going on below the surface though. In buxton power in. An. Listen i mean theyre theyre also sessions tendencies in many other parts of the World Driving north of sampling catalonia and in spain. The scottish one to be separate from uk quebec canada. When you do it without involving the population in question. Theres always a fear that itll backfire for me catch me right now is a dormant volcano. We dont know how angry because me these are because theres a complete shut down no internet no television no media. Does go fuel for austin days. If and when the good the curfew is lifted and it will have to be lifted right. We will find out you know how to set which movies are but it just leads to violence or with the more the government will. Divide and rule david in order to get some politicians on its side. And take it from there. But i am i am fearful i mean i am concerned. The worlds doesnt appreciate it at the moment. But if this goes into violence and if boxed on in india are back on the brink of the water and two Nuclear Armed nations. Then the world would have to take notice. Of and i hope it doesnt come down to me what a shame here is being described as treating kashmir is a colony of being a fully fledged Occupying Force of being the master of a prison how to indians see. Respond to those kind of. Accusations by indians you mean the ending mosses. Yes yeah of. The masses as i said in the beginning. Its a huge emotion people are celebrating. Everywhere other than crush me and if i may just go back to the map that youd shown. Not be see this huge territory there on the left inside the box on the right inside the china has a little box. And internationally when we talk about admitting that the whole about discussion me but as there is a bifurcation there you have catch me if you have w. Have let doc let dog being the smallest which is going to be a Union Territory now. And there are only about three hundred thousand People Living there. Jumble has about six million and crush me has eight million if im not wrong so basically dumb one because we it forms the major chunk and let doctors by the blood most of the but this other jumble has the hindu population crush me has. Muslim so of the whole conflict is about this area of where the Muslim Population resides that is very theres the sentiment off we do not belong to india or even on being honest. And if youre. Asking about what. The government is talking about. If you see how this whole event is being covered right now. There are two very different additives the International Media is showing. That that appellate attacks the International Media is showing that that a protest that. People coming out in the streets. The indymedia is showing that be but there are celebrating because in the media is going to lead the of the media is going to jumble and talking to people there. So obviously board that things are happening so we have to consider. Double grocery let doc as a whole and then look at the picture. Grissom burger the there are many muslims now inn kashmir who fearing that that will be an influx of hindus changing the demographics of the of the region is not likely is not some the calls yes i think this is certainly part of the strategy of the government in the mid to long term perspective to change the demographic scenario. Because with the abolition off off the special status of course mia it will become possible for people from me from other parts of india to go to cash me a to buy land i also for companies to invest so will you will see and this is also part of the strategy that will be investor summit. Of the Indian Government on cost me in october and of course the government has also has seen it has provided a Legislative Assembly to do you need to the Union Territory of jungle and custom yes we may also see early elections or we may see elections probably in the next year and then it will be difficult for a muslim parties so far with the will participate or not if the boycott the elections than t the majority will be. Off this new Legislative Assembly will be mostly hindus from him to parties and one should also not forget the b. J. P. Already had a strong position in in this part of cost me in the last Assembly Election day we had. 23 of the walls so i think in the long term perspective the idea is to fundamentally change the political consolations one aspect is also that all the leaders of the major parties in all of the existing parties in because we has been put under house arrest which also shows when you say fundamentally change when you talk about people being put under house arrest. Com go on forever all that. Has to be a pollution to the situation. Yes my friend yes on that yes the resolution. Well have much less space yes and a political solution is to. Implement some form of democratic representation which will be done with new elections. But the protests will go on yes. I dont think new elections will solve anything in all likelihood. Of cacash meaty muslim politicians been boycotted. Becaususe they feel they have not been consulted in any of this india has used its might to. Press ahead with this. And if they do. By court which is most likely of as you said bob the Prime Ministers party bar gets into party even from the government but it will be seen as a puppet government. Not representing push me sentiments. And it will it will not solve anything weve seen this before and catch me if you know pro india politicians. Of like my off the likelihood of donuts. Hoover brought into government who formed governments. But did they never really represented the veil of the christian you people and all those politicians are siding with the doors who are. Are are deeply upset but then deodorant indian all coming back to the whole issue the whole toxic issue of demographics are well i saw a quote from one elderly kashmiri woman the other day. She said its clear that mr mody once cashmere but not cash moving people is that faith also Research Shows that read that is the saddest part about dish me that night the progress on more india. Have really cared about the Community People for the two governments its a data entry that they have been fighting over. I am i have reported from the committee line of control from the box on the side i have seen ive met families. Who live in perpetual terror in perpetual fear of crossfire and in so manany lives have been lost. So many lives shattered divided. And what baffles me is the world doesnt care. I mean we are we are sitting in berlin were discussing it kristen is from a reputable think tank i want to know how come nobodys bothered about this and the village will it have to be brought to the brink of nuclear war for people to sit up and still big bigger to. Take care of this it is a remarkable one is the International Community looking the other way International Community is looking at the other way probably because they say its a bilateral issue. This is the problem that the United Nations resolutions from the nineteen forties and fifties have lost it. All pans out of various reasons. The most obvious one is that since the fifties china is also part of this. Second point would be that we didnt catch me at least on the inside there has also been a strong Independence Movement under by the by the cashier is now the Independence Movement is not covered by the u. N. Resolutions. So it would be difficult besides some other technical issues to make to make some form of it right a referendum when probably the most Important Movement and this is normally an Independence Movement which we know it from other. Parts of the world is not represented so in that sense one on one can understand the position of the International Community and this has also been by very close allies of. Pakistan even china has always argued please you have a problem was in the yes but sold with on a bilateral level we have seen these bilateral in debt negotiations the most important one was probably in two thousand seven when a solution. Whats there yes i am so this is why the International Community says you have a problem you solve it on Bilateral Dialogue at the moment the Indian Government is not willing to go into any negotiations with india and pakistan and i do not see it. Coming up soon okay i just break off for a second there indebted to figure is at the center of this ongoing crisis of the heads of government in pakistan and india. To politicians who could hardly be more different. India i i would probably i did run. Any i will add one. PrPrime MinisterNarendra Modis indias fervent hindu nationalist. Hes revoked articles three hundred seventy and thirty five a. Which guaranteed cashmere special status an attorney from indias constitution. Mahdi thinks this will bring him a step closer to his goal of establishing india is the second major power in asia alongside china. I got a three seventy and thirty five i gag jemu and cash mia nothing but terrorism. Separatism dynasts ism and corruption often go out. Across the border pakistani Prime Minister imran khan a former cricketeter in plplayboy whos been married three times once a fixture of londons high society he became a devout muslim and politician later in life he now espouses conservative even extremist views. It cant be possible that they attack us and we dont respond what will happen next expression things will escalate when both of us keep reacting it could lead to more action. Movie or con whos got the upper hand in the customer conflict. Certainly one interesting question the other question that i have is for cristian if you had to be either if either of the two legal both of the two leaders ideally in the same river one time what advice would you give to now where you want them to. Push this crisis i think the easiest solution and the best solution would be to settle on the status quo and this is still not ruled out. One can already in one can imagine like in two thousand seven he w was explaining yourself that there is fatigue with the status quo no there isnt there is there is mold this is a debate on the indian side thats thats a debate on the inside but read between india and pakistan ones. Can still agree on a solution like having the loc as a softball this is not the not new it depends on the political will on both sides as i said at the moment i do not see the indians willing to negotiate with a pakistan but at the end it has not changed though the overall setting for t the solutition with in the existing. Territorial delimitations and the state of school. Okay a sure your advice you always step for the two leaders. I think the best way to i agree to him and i think the best way would be bilateral talks and one has to solve it like that. But coming back to watch as he was saying i dont think that we are. The pringle full of nuclear war. I think both of these populist leader not in the movie and non con. None of them is so naive that they would. Get into a nuclear war. As far as the statements are concerned the v. Imran khan has reacted and then. Theyll be more the has said that there would be a new chief was cds was going to look off to the defense of the army navy and airforce. I think these statements you have to make because if you are populist leaders youll have to make sure that people. Are youre listening to you and then again shooting what a what youre saying. And so i think might my advice. Would be that they sit together talk and. Thats the only route. I dont think its happening anytime soon i mean the way. Of day Indian Government. Is emboldened. By lack of reaction from World Community of Prime Minister maldive will. Bush for the wrong. Where where what what to start taking what is not take us if he pushes for the role. One of the biggest worry is that. You can unilaterally taken action and chris mere without consulting the local population thehe world sits thee silently then. Then you think you can get away with mall and who knows what else he has up his sleeves. The problem focused on is. Its the economy is in trouble. The government is becoming more and more authoritarian. A lot of people are saying to the box on the gum and you need to attend to problems at hoho youve talked about catch me for seventy years youll fails to liberate it. And now instead of resorting to the funding job the elements and cash me. You need to clean up your your own house. And so it. I mean i think its bleak the dead no talking lately talking talking about when mr mode you might take the situation im still curious to know what the sort of the worst Case Scenario as well. Because cash me is a flash point. If things get out of hand if theres another major attack and cash me india will blame focused on and then the others will r retaliate. And that is why i think the world needs to Pay Attention to it okay well not dog no thats what were going to have to leave it would be talking about the kashmir crisis new aero all power corrupts thanks very much indeed for joining us if we give you. Some food for thought to come back next week until and bye bye. And she was can mu. Make a movement this week Legendary Music producer Danny Goldberg takes us back to a time when all you need is love was not meaeant to o be ironic. Danny will reflect onn the fifty years since the summer of love and go in search of the lostt chord the t title of his n new. Then from t todays music movemt seen alexa garcia and name a penniman of climbing poetry talk about their new album intrinsic and performed live in studio its all coming up on the north lawn to show the place for the people who say combi done. Take backseat to the peopople wo were doing it welcome