Libya nurtures a fragile peace
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The ceasefire has held since October, but will it hold until elections on 24 December?
Hopes for an end to the decade-long post-Muammar Gaddafi conflict are higher now than they have been for a long time. A ceasefire has held since October 2020 and an oil blockade has been lifted. The broadly representative Libyan Political Dialogue Forum has agreed to hold elections on 24 December and this week finalised the process for selecting a unified transitional government to lead the country until then.
But despite these positive signs, there are also many alarm bells. The ceasefire could be interpreted as the de jure reflection of a de facto military stalemate on the ground, but also shifting global dynamics among the external forces that have largely been calling the shots in the war.