Host hello, im christian fraser, and this is the context. Not reliant on foreign dictators. Better for jobs. Hundreds of thousands supported in scotland. But also better for the climate. I am astonished that rishi sunak is doubling down on his week climate policy. Climate changes here, it is terrifying, and it is just the very beginning. Christian drill baby, drill. The republican slogan of 2018, not exactly rishi sunaks policy, but not far off. The Prime Minister announced hundreds of new licenses will be granted, good for Energy Security, good for the environment, and better than shipping it halfway around the world, but will it bring down Domestic Energy prices and is the timing right . A temperature boil off of the florida coast registered 101 degrees fahrenheit. In iraq, the cradle of civilization, the phrase is so dry that there e whole villages on the move. Weve already reached the point of no return. Good. It is energy weaken in the u. K. The Prime Minister has made a big commitment to the oil and gas industry. The government is providing up to 20 billion pounds for Carbon Capture projects, including the first in scotland, which the government said will create 20,000 new jobs. Even in 2050, it is forecast a quarter of our energy needs will come from oil and gas. That is why Carbon Capture and storage are important. Christian the British Government announced that the announcements are consistent with its commitment to reach net zero by 2050, which is set in law, but the Prime Minister stands accused of watering down the targets. Labor say they will not grant any new drilling licenses if they win the next election. The opposition says their green strategy will create more jobs and is more sustainable. Quite frankly, im astonished that rishi sunak is doubling down on his failed policy on climate action. Businesses and individuals and families have suffered 13 years of Failing Energy policy. Christian suddenly, the cost of going green and costofliving crisis has become a wedge issue, not solely in the u. K. There is a similar dividing line in the United States over joe bidens policies. In spain, the heart rate gained ground, pledging to roll back clean science commitments. We are already missing targets we have set, and things will only get worse, so tonight, on the last day of a record hot july, we will spend the first halfhour of this program with an expert panel. Let me bring in the independent environmental analyst roger hairpin, assistant scientist aaron tra, and our two other guests. Welcome to you all. Roger, maybe i could start with you. Before we get into energy policy, i wanted to frame where we are. There is so much in terms of the wildfires and heat we have witnessed around the world, but also the various reports. Could use some of where we are by the end of july . Christian the truth is world scientists get together on a regular basis to make pronouncements about where they think the climate will be the years to come. Last week, we had an admission from scientist bob watson, a former member of the climate loyalty, certainly the establishment, him saying that although they got the temperature forecast pretty much right, what they had not foreseen was the consequences that would flow from that. He told me he thought that was extremely alarming. If you talk with other scientists, they are using the word scared, scared by what is happening because it is happening so fast, and governments do not appear to be reacting much. I am trying to send one simple message, which is this. At the moment, we have a temperature rise of about 1. 2 celsius. We are projected to go to 3 celsius. Based on what we know from 1. 2 celsius, who in our audience will say, its a really good idea to go to 3 celsius increase in global temperature and see how we can get on . My guess is there will be very few people out there with their hands up, and yet governments do not seem to have taken at that seriously and are moving on with policies that are frankly far too slow. Christian underpinning the politics is the cost, the cost to the taxpayer. The british professor who has taken over as the new Intergovernmental Panel on climate change, he said in his first interview that we need a chest transition Just Transition. Do you think we have a Just Transition at the moment . Definitely not. A Just Transition means you bring everybody on board, not just in the u. K. But around the world, and there is a clear divide between the rich countries and poor countries. In the u. K. , you have high income and low income households. We saw last year when russia invaded ukraine, and how gas prices skyrocketed across the european continent. Oil prices also increased. There was a major outcry in europe and across the u. K. Where people were terrorized by the increase in energy poverty. If you look at the average person in many parts of the world, they were concerned about high energy bills, and th is a concern today. We can talk about this, as well. It is rich people buying lithium,ho will use the lithium and metals from the poor countries. There is a dominant view in the poor countries that this is far from a Just Transition. Christian lets start with more than todays announcement. One thing the Prime Minister is saying in the mix of the energy the u. K. Has, oil and gas play a prominent part. We know what happened to the costofliving with engy prices. Hundreds of new licenses, does that guarantee our Energy Prices will come down . I think the Prime Minister has got it correct in terms of what he is trying to do. By producing more oil and gas, it doesnt mean we are going to use more. It means we will reduce the cost of the gas and oil we use in this country. The revenues will go to the taxpayer, and we will create more security of supply for issues like what we saw last year with russia. The premise of what rishi sunak is trying to do makes sense, but i think we have had a disjointed policy for years. That the government is granting licenses after passing lynn falls on Companies Last year and continuing to impose those taxes , so even though these policies are coming into place that gas prices, the incentives created by the government over the last few decades have constantly changed the terms and made it difficultor anyone to want to invest in the u. K. Christian youre talking about the windfall taxes the government has imposed, but i want to touch on one thing that will come back to the u. K. Are you saying that the oil and gas that we drill in the north sea comes into the u. K. Market . I thought it was part of a global wholesale market. It takes a certain amount of the time certain amount of time for that to come online. How quickly . Is this gas we are now signing licenses for . Is that going to be used, or is there a danger that as we try to get to net zero, it becomes a sunk asset . The u. K. Consumes more energy than it can produce domtically on the oil side and gas side. What you see is thatroduction has been declining for many years because of a lack of investment. Unlike other industries where you build a factory and produce the same amount each year, oil and gas reservoirs decline each year by as much as 10 per annum. To stay still and produce what we are producing at the moment, you need to continue to invest. That investment takes time. It takes a few years to explore. It takes another few years to bring the oil and gas on stream. Its another five or 10 years to see an impact from these licenses being issued. 25 years, line, will you need that oil and gas being produced . I think ere will be less demand for oil, maybe less for gas over the next few decades, but there are certain things you cannot replace. Christian you were nodding at some points. I want you to respond to what youve seen thus far. I disagree with what was said. The government said this would not bring down Energy Prices in the u. K. I would also say, if you are interested in securing Energy Supply in the u. K. , we would be investing in home insulation massively. We would be allowing for onshore wind development. This government is not serious about policies that would benefit the Energy Security agenda, so this is a lot of windowdressing. Christian but we do burn a lot of oil and gas, and we may have to yet source lng, liquefied natural gas this winter, and it may be difficult to come by depending on the chinese economy. There is a long horizon for oil and gas. Isnt this the right time to create security in the market . These projects will not come online for more than a decade or more. We know we have to leave the majority on burned if we wanto stay below our paris targets. That requires that the majority of fossil fuels do not get developed. If we continue to expand more, it guarantees we will not meet the climate targets. This is the position of the International Energy agency, International Panel on climate change. Even our own panel said we cannot and shouldnt develop these oil and gas reserves, and we do not need them. Christian the fossil fuel industry solution to this is Carbon Capture. Theyve put money in as a backstop. Why have they agreed to do that today when they were so slow to invest in it before . Does it work . Does it work . Lets start there. It would be 20 years ago, time travel to algeria to take a trip into the middle of the Sahara Desert where bp had a gas plant, but there was too much Carbon Dioxide. Normally, it would dissolve into the atmosphere, but it would make bp the biggest source of Carbon Dioxide on the planet, so they decided to put it underground. Where they pumped out gas, they pumped back in Carbon Dioxide, and extraordinarily, that drilling was controlled from a control room in surrey where you could see the drill going under ground. There was one point where you could see the drill coming through like this, and the substrate dipped down. The drill kept going and went out of the reservoir. When it went back in, i was like, why has it gone out of the servoir . Also, human error can creep in, and things can go wrong. Christian how much gas . The Energy Minister was asked and said, thousands of kilowatts on the. How much . We dont have a measure of that. Yet we are pumping more oil and gas. The Carbon CaptureStorage Association has their estimates. We are going to pump more oil and gas. In 2021, a government asked the International Energy agency to do a study on whether or not countries should be pumping out oil or gas. Weve already gotten too much oil and gas in the system to be exploited. If we burn it, it will push targets out of the window. The country that commissioned the report is the u. K. Theyve gone against that report. It is not just the International Energy agency. This is a very widespread view. Christian one of the concerns about Carbon Capture, some would say it is a greenwashing of the oil and gas we extract. People say to will take care of it. But there is no evidence it works, is there . There is evidence, but at what cost . People talk about this technology as if we just discovered it. The oil andas industry, there is the potential for leakage. Carbon dioxide is a waste, not a valuable product like oil and gas. We know how to do it as an industry, but sometimes i fear it gets oversold by the industry and by governments as a solution. The climate problem is a big problem, and no single solution, Energy Efficiency or Carbon Capture, will solve by itself the climate challenge. It is simplistic to say that this is the technology we need to solve the problem. Christian i want to talk in the 10 minutes we have left about the government and whether it is committed to net zero. The government has madit cheaper to pollute and britain compared with the eu, by watering down reforms to the carbon market. They give more allowances. Carbon is traded at a steep discount compared to europe. Do you thinkhere is enough incentive for fossil fuel companies to invest and clean up their act . I think the announcement today granting the Carbon Capture licenses is certainly helpful. My view is that Carbon Capture will be a large part of the solution getting to net zero. It is not the only solution, but renewables are not the only solution either. Carbon capture, you can produce more oil and gas, or you can reduce emissions from the current oil and gas. It has been going for a few decades. The u. K. Has got the Carbon Capture resource, if you like. It has the reservoirs that are able to store Carbon Capture. Christian lets take for example the other side of the argument that you do need this oil and gas. You touched on this idea that we need this investment. We talked about the debate over net zero. Do you think todays decision will encourage other companies, or do you think these licenses ar in and of themselves enough . Overall, i dont think this announcement today will stimulate a significant amount of new investment. The Investment Climate for oil and gas in the u. K. Has been poor the last few years. Given the concerns overlimate change, tax policies in place, the potential for a change in government that could scrap these and turnaround and change policy again, its hard to see new companies coming in. On the Carbon Capture side, it is different. There is a lot of money going towards Carbon Capture. I think that could be a huge growth area. Christian i know you go to these conferences where agreements are negotiated. How do these agreements undermine negotiations at an International Level . U. K. Likes to call itself a climate leader, but we are reneging on these pledges. James murray described the announcement as polarizing and posttruth. What we are seeing is a performative hostility towards Environmental Issues to try to best position themselves ahead of the next election. The public overwhelmingly supports of the net zero agenda, and when you have the u. N. Secretary general saying that investing in oil and gas is moral and economic madness, for the u. K. Prime minister to do that, it is undermining our position at these negotiations. Christian i called at a wedge issue. It is a wedge issue because a lot of people cannot afford the subsidies. It is the poorest to say they are being hit the hardest, and they vote against the policies that the london mayor has put in place. I know you are talking about the transition between poor and rich countries, but it is felt at the local and nation level, as well. In the u. K. Last year, i remember the complaints people made about their high energy bills, and they were worried about not being able to pay those prices and go through the difficult winters. We all want to save the planet. We have to accept either we give up on oil and gas, 70 of the countrys primary energy needs, so you could say we are not going to provide any more oil and gas if everybody is happy with these high prices and not worried about the spread of energy policy, it is not just about poor and rich countries, but within the u. K. , theres been a rise in Energy Prices. If people are not worried, fine, we can take these drastic measures. I heard aaron and roger referring to what the Energy Agency said, which was if we achieved net zero by 2050, we should not invest any more. The same agency published two reports where they said no investment or no sufficient investment in oil gas will lead to higher prices or more volatility in prices. Unfortunately, we are not all speaking with one voice. The poor people are not going to accept high prices for energy, no matter how noble the cause. Christian we are out of time. Thank you very much to all of you for your time. Thank you all for your thoughts this evening. Plenty more on the bbc website about todays announcement and many of those climate stories we have been following. We are going to talk about ron desantis making a speech in New Hampshire and a new poll out in the United States that shows donald trump miles ahead of the other republican challengers. We are also going to talk about narrator funding for this presentation of this program is provided by. Narrator Financial Services firm, Raymond James. Narrator funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. And by judy and Peter Blum Kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for americas neglected needs. Narrator funding for this presentation of this program is provided by. Woman architect. Bee keeper. Mentor. A Raymond JamesFinancial Advisor tailors advice to help you live your life. Life well planned. Narrator funding was also provided by, the freeman foundation. And by judy and Peter Blum Kovler foundation; pursuing solutions for americas neglected needs. Announcer and now, bbc news