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Hospitalizations, i. C. U. Patients, and the like. We talk about the imperative of taking personal responsibility to wear face masks and practice physical distancing, social distancing. We talked about the imperative to meet head on so we could mitigate the worst effects of the virus and work our way through this first phase. We reinforced we are still in the first wave of this pandemic. We are not in the second wave. We have been successful in the state of california of bending the curve. Ill get to that in a moment. But we have stretched it out. We have elongated i want. And thats what were experiencing here today. The purpose of today is to update you on our daily tallies as well. And give you the latest numbers. As you can see from the slide, a slide thats become familiar for those that have taken the time to watch the presentations. This slide represents the total number of tests and the Positivity Rate in theos rate ie percentage of people that tested positive that were tested in the state. The first 14 days and the two numbers on the slide, 40. 8 and 5. 1 represent the first 14day cohort of positivity. Most of the people in the beginning of the pandemic that went to seek testing were symptomatic. Its not surprising those numbers in the beginning of the pandemic were high. The blue bar represented on the slide are the total number of tests. We have significantly increased the ramp of testing. And youve seen a significant decrease in the Positivity Rate. I reminded you yesterday and ill remind you today, a point of caution. The Positivity Rate has begun to increase over the course of the last few weeks. Its 5. 1 now Positivity Rate over the last 14 days. What im not sharing in terms of a slide and want to share with you in a transparent way is a 5. 6 Positivity Rate in the last seven days. This represents the last 14 days. But the Positivity Rate is north of the 5. 1 . Again, 5. 6 in the last seven days. Total number of cases, yesterday, we had a record high, 7,149 people that tested positive for covid19. Youll see today that number drop to 5,349. Still, higher than we would like it to be. Still a point of concern. Yesterday, we tested a Record Number of people. Over 101,000 people were tested in the state of california. Now, north of 3. 7 Million People have been tested since the beginning of the pandemic. Weve averaged over the last seven days 88,000 tests in the state of california. While that is significant, its not where we need to be. We need to continue to increase our testing, continue to increase our community, what we refer to as surveillance to get a better handle of the total number of positive cases and understand the nuances between those with symptoms, those asymptomatic, and those presymptomatic. Over the course of the last few weeks, we are seeing roughly 56,000 new cases just in the last 14 days. And so points of obvious and real concern. Accordingly, we mark as we have made this point multiple occasions, consideration above all else to total number of hospitalizations as it relates to people that are coming into our hospitals that test positive for covid19. Yesterday, i shared a slide with you that showed 29 increase in hospitalizations over 14day period. You can see from this slide its increased slightly to 32 in hospitalizations over the last 14 days. We now have 4,240 individuals that are hospitalized as covid19 patients. Yesterday, we shared and ill share it again today a pie chart of the total Surge Capacity within our Hospital System. This is an incredibly important chart. And this marks the efforts that we have advanced over the course of the last number of months, not just again to sit on our hands, but to address your anxiety and the legitimate concern we had to prepare for an increase in total hospitalizations. As you can see from this chart, some 52,745 surge beds have been identified that we can make available to meet the needs if capacity within our existing Hospital System becomes stretched with covid19 patients. Like yesterday, today, roughly 8 of that capacity has now been absorbed. 8 in terms of total hospitalization sap within our surgelan been absorbed based on the total number of positive patients in our hospitals. By the way, that hospitalization number represents a 3. 5 increase compared to our previous reporting period yesterday. We look at i. C. U. Numbers and indeed, the numbers not dissimilar to yesterday, increasing. A 19 increase in this chart of i. C. U. Admissions over the last 14day period. Yesterday, it was 18 . Were seeing a slight increase. 3 increase over yesterday. But over 14day period, represents a 19 increase. 1,316 individuals within our total population of patients in our i. C. U. s. This represented on this pie chart, roughly 34 of the available i. C. U. Beds in the system. If you compare the chart to the one i put out yesterday, we are roughly 29 of so of capacity. Or raths, excuse me, 31 of our capacity. In the ballpark. A few percentage parts higher in terms of the blue part of the pie in terms of the total capacity. Two reasons. Ce, the increase i the patientsnd the decrease in the total number of beds. That number changes daytoday based upon the entire Hospital System and the availability of i. C. U. S for patients that come there for multiple reasons. Again, 8 on the hospitalizations of capacity. About 34 as it relates to i. C. U. Capacity in the aggregate for the state of california. And we do not live in the aggregate. So these conditions are different. These percentages are different by county. And we encourage you and ill say this on multiple occasions. Go to the covid19 website to take a look county by county at what is available and looking at the the preparedness plans put up by your county Health Officials in concurrence with your county representatives that attest to certain criteria and conditions the before they can move further in to the reopening of the economy and the phases as theyve been referred to. Thats an update in terms of the daily totals. I want to go back and take advantage a little bit of your time today and talk about modeling. It can be a head scratcher, to be candid. Going back months and watching the charts on the evening news and cable networks, people debating the methodology of the models. People using the university of washington models. Using the john hopkins models. The u. C. L. A. The m. I. T. , i can continue down the path. Many models are put up, charts, graphs, waves, dots. If youre like me, they can become profoundly confusing. So today, i want to simplify what often you are presented and what you may look at and have your eyes roll and try to make sense of it. And also to provide a framework in a moment where more people can participate in the modeling and avail themselves of their expertise to collective effort here in the state of california. We would argue across the rest of the nation in improving our modeling capacity and making it more realtime and relevant in your lives. The purpose of the model is to make two points. One is these models guide actions. Theyre not determinative of the future. You have heard me on multiple occasions make this point. The future is not just something to experience. We are not victims of fate. We can manifest the future. Its not something in front of us, its something inside of us. Its decisions, not conditions, that determine our fate and future. In the state of california, we are proof of that. You see this, one of the original models put out many, many months ago. Very simple model that talks about no intervention, meaning you just rolled out of bed and went along with whatever was thrown at us. And without an intervention, the expectation and the reality as youve experienced in some states, there would be a large surge or significant increase in the surge of transmissions of the virus and consequence the big impact on the hospital care delivery system, on the Health Care Delivery system. Intervention is what we refer to in technical terms as nonpharmaceutical interventions, social distancing, physical distancing, wearing a face mask allowed us to prepare, promote, and protect a different outcome. Because of the interventions in the state of california, we are able to mitigate the curve and never experienced the sharp increase. But what we did do is we pushed out because of these innovations the growth of that curve. But more modestly so we had time to develop more capacity in the Hospital System, more capacity to provide the protective gear that has become so important in terms of reopening our economy. And more over, making sure when people are in need of support and help, we are there to provide it a proactive, comprehensive, and thoughtful way. What we are doing today is not only trying to explain more about the modeling. Dr. Galley will come do that. But we want to open up the opportunity for more and more people to get engaged in helping us build our models. What we refer to as a model of models. Youll see that we currently have on our covid19 website, i encourage you to take a look at this site and youll see specifically if you want to just go directly to the slide that im referring, go to cal cat, calcat. But this cal cat allows you the tool to get access to our models. The now cast models and forecast models and larger models that run frankly just scenarios of planning. Dr. Galley is going to come up and explain a little bit about the models and how we have stacked the different models together and made them available on the site. But what we want to do today is something much more robust and significant. And that is we want to open up our site to medicine of citizen scientists. People out there doing coding every single day. We want to give them access to an open source platform, to all of the available data that we have, that i have, that our Health Professionals have in a way that we dont believe has been done anywhere else in the united states. This is a deep dive for transparency and openness. This is a new resource that were making available today. This open source resource is available. Youll see the state of california, you see it on the screen there. Were making available the capacity for people to participate and help build our modeling capacity. One thing we recognize is the limitlessness of the capacity of expertise and talent that resides throughout the state of california, throughout the united states, and for that matter, throughout the rest of the world. The information that were now making available is exactly the information we make available to county Health Officials. Informs that guides the incredible work that mike and d. J. Have been doing on our team. These data experts that they provide second to none. Its the kind of work that they do every single day. Now, were opening up to all of you, to mathematicians and experts ina. I. , and our researchers and scientists and Nobel Laureates and partners across the spectrum, including citizens that has an expertise that havent b tapped or asked or veiled themselves to the opportunity engage. These go beyond flat files anda. P. I. S and the simple protocols. This is much more dynamic. Much more interactive. It could bring to life a visualization of this data in a much more timely way. Its rather simple. We want to make the modeling purposeful and more meaningful. We want it to promote a different outcome. And dare i say this, i want to back up the Health Professionals because this is the data they use to guide is Decision Making. Often, that Decision Making is questioned by pun dits, some good reason, some more of an ideology cal frame. We want this out there and tested and challenged. And we recognize theres a reason this is not always done. It will be tested and it will be challenged. I think you deserve that. And i think we have a responsibility to advance that paradigm, that value, and that protocol. Its about collaboration. Its about engaging expertise. As i say, many, many occasions, expertise is found anywhere and everywhere given the opportunity. And i think we have now afforded the opportunity. And well see the really dynamic and exciting things come from the protocols and the new opportunity to engage in these new tools and ultimately help us engage in making protocol and process that help inform guidelines and more importantly to encourage better individual behavior to back up the assertions that many are making about the critical nature of wearing face masks and continuing the social distancing and physical distancing required at the moment. Let me no longer belabor this and ask dr. Galley to come up and make more sense of the models for you, for our Decision Making, and again, how all of you can participate now in helping us inform our next steps in the pandemic. Dr. Galley . Thank you, governor. Good afternoon. I want to take a few minutes to talk about the three different functions or real benefits of the cal cat tool that were announcing today. Real opportunity to get information that we i have been using with our team in california for months to guide some of the decisions at the state level. The exciting opportunity today is to not just have statewide information, but as weve built our understanding of the different models that you heard the governor mention from across the nation, to be able to use those at a much more local, county level. We know that county Health Officers and Health Directors are using the information on a regular basis, not to sort of support the opinions, but to really guide their decisions that are driving some of our actions as it relates to our response to covid19. So i just want to walk through three slides. The first one is really an understanding of what do we mean by now casting . What goes in a now cast . Its like when my kids wake up in the morning and say whats the weather like . I say look out the back window and understand whats going on. Is it sunny, cloudy . It helps us understand what is going on today at this moment. Its really built around this concept of the effective or notion of rate of spread. The governor mentioned just last week this idea of effective, the notion that one infected person if the r effective is one, that person is going to infect one other person. If it goes to two, it is one person infecting two people. And what we really want to see is an r effective below one. And each bit above one, so 1. 1, 1. 2, ends up growing our cases in quite dramatic levels. Thats when you see often those graphs or models that show the high, steep, almost hockey sticklike arc up. That is what we want to work hard to avoid. Having the information not just at the california statewide level, but to put it in the hands of people at the county level allow this information to go into making decisions at that local level. The slide you see in front of you takes into account a number of different models that weve been looking at at the state level. This is not californias own mdel, but that dark blue line that you see is actually the average of all of the other models that many of us are seeing in the news and in the press. And that we take our cues from. We believe that each of those models has strengths. And we wanted to put together a tool so that you can see the average and those numbers get in the hands of local Health Officers and Decision Makers to guide future decisions. The next slide i wanted to go over is the forecast. This is very much sort of sticking with the weather analogy. This is like your tenday forecast. This takes your current information, your current choices, and helps guide where you might be in the next few weeks. These are exactly the tools we see. Theyre built around the r effective for your communities, for your county, for the state, that help guide the decisions that we might make around how to emphasize and reenforce many of the things the governor has been mentioning over the past many days focused on wearing our face covering, remaining physically distanced, washing our hands, staying home when youre sick and protecting the most vulnerable. Again, we have on our cal cat website a tool that brings together many of the various models, allows us to look at various different outcomes of the decisions that were making today. The third slide is really highlights one of the key benefits of the tool, which is allowing us to look at various scenarios. The governor highlighted that todays decisions help us understand a few weeks from now through our models where we might end up. This allows us this tool allows us to take our current data, whether thats the hospitalization data, the case numbers, understanding some of those nonpharmaceutical interventions we have in place like wearing your face coverings, staying distanced, and where we will end up in the next few weeks and months based on those decisions. It allows us to model exactly how we need to design activities and choices for today to help us plan for the future. And between these various tools, we believe inviting a number of new individuals with the tools, make them better, challenge them as the governor said, that we will as we increase our progress in our fight against covid19, have improved tools and make even better decisions in the future based on our work together. And i just want to reiterate that these are exactly the tools that empower your local Health Officers and Decision Makers to prepare better for what well see in the weeks and months to come and keep us as low risk and safe as possible in california as we continue to march forward in our fight against covid19. And with that, back to you, governor. Thanks, dr. Galley. So bottom line is we want to really empower individuals. We want to empower you, empower others that are willing to contribute code, time, attention. Were making the data easily accessible in a machine readable manner. Something folks understand. Many others may be curious about. But the bottom line is we are making this a seamless process of engagement, a twoway engagement that we think will advance the cause of understanding our capacity to deliver in realtime our promotion to keep people safe and healthy in the state of california. Real progress has been made over the course last number of months of putting this together, this platform together. Thats why today were releasing it. Were putting out other data. I have every morning a dashboard that i receive with a lot of the information that were providing here today and the previous days. We are now making all of that available as well. Trying to be as transparent as possible. Encouraging all of us with the knowledge that we posses currently and the knowledge and insight we hope will be advanced through the efforts to make better decisions that ultimately can help us navigate and allow us to move forward. Youve been watching the governors update. The coverage continues streaming on cbsn bay area. Ys w sll in t t pandemic in california. We are not in a second wave as some may think. And the state is also seeing a 5. 6 Positivity Rate in the last seven days. 56,000 cases in the last 14 days in california. Again, more from t on cbsn bay area. The next newscast is at 5 00. Have a great afternoon. Steffy sighs well, then please tell me whats gonna happen. Bill i did. Im going to be there for my wife. Steffy so im just gonna be alone here in the place that i bought for the two of us . Bill i gave you the only answer i can, steffy. Steffy well, will i see you . Bill sighs one way or another. Steffy okay. How . And when

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