Transcripts For KNTV Late Night With Seth Meyers 20170831

Even sure President Trump has veto power over his tweets. No, donald, dont do it, youre crazy. Youre not the boss of me [ laughter ] President Trump had lunch with Vice President mike pence today at his golf club in new jersey. They would have played golf, but pence thinks getting it in the hole is a sin. [ light laughter ] [ applause ] in an interview, tuesday, white house adviser Steven Miller called President Trump the best orator in that office in generations. When reached for comments, trump said, wow, he say very nice things, he good and me good. Me orator. President trumps inauguration singer, whose sister is transgender, recently called the president s ban on transgender people in the military a disappointment. Well sounds like someone is not getting invited to sing at his impeachment. [ laughter and applause ] missed opportunity. [ cheers and applause ] a Japanese Company has created a new highend Fidget Spinner that they say can spin for more than 12 minutes. Beating the previous record for spinning held by kellyanne conway. [ laughter and applause ] according to a new study, men can burn more than 100 calories during sex. Or you could just eat less, said one woman. [ light laughter ] [ cheers and applause ] a virginia resident called the police to report that someone had broken into their apartment and cleaned it. Police describe the suspect as a 64 white male who is completely bald and oh, my god [ light laughter ] a new study shows that the optimal time to dunk an oreo is three seconds. Thats funny. I thought the optimal time was when youre going through a divorce. [ laughter ] it makes sense as it was coming out of my mouth, i knew it wasnt going to work. [ laughter ] and finally, a truck carrying 22,000 pounds of ravioli ravioli [ laughter ] sorry, im still shaken from your absence on the oreo joke. [ laughter ] i was worried you had all left. I do think it is ravioli. Yeah. Seth i think everybody else says it wrong. [ light laughter ] and finally a truck carrying 22,000 pounds of ravioli [ laughter ] [ cheers and applause ] stop it i have a joke to tell and finally a truck carrying 22,000 pounds of ravioli and jalapenos caught on fire while on a highway in indiana. And immediately became guy fieris latest restaurant. [ cheers and applause ] there we go. Look at us. We told a joke together. Were a family now. [ applause ] we have a great show for you tonight. Hes a very funny comedian and a judge on nbcs americas got talent. Howie mandel is here tonight. [ cheers and applause ] she is the u. S. Senator from illinois, Tammy Duckworth joins us [ cheers and applause ] and he is the author of the book, football outsiders almanac 2017. Its an incredibly deep dive into the world of nfl statistics, aaron schatz is joining us. Youre here on a good night. Before we get to that, President Trump doubled down today on his escalating war of words with north korea. Its a tense situation which might explain why trump is now relying on his aides for the one thing he values most stroking his fragile ego. For more, its time for a closer look. [ cheers and applause ] seth is as you recall, tensions with north korea were simmering at a moderate heat until trump decided to crank up the burner with this reckless comment on tuesday. North korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury. Like the world has never seen. Seth even trump is scared by what hes saying. [ laughter ] look at him, hes literally hugging himself. [ light laughter ] you know, maybe if someone else had hugged him 65 years ago we wouldnt be here right now. [ light laughter ] [ applause ] but i for one i for one am glad hes finally scaring himself as much as hes scaring the rest of us. Fire and fury like the world has never seen. Oh, why did the president just say that . [ light laughter ] almost immediately after that comment, the adults around trump tried to tamp down the rhetoric. First up, secretary of state rex tillerson. I think what the president was just reaffirming is the United States has the capability to fully defend itself from any attack and defend our allies. And we will do so. So the American People should sleep well tonight. Seth sleep well tonight . We havent been sleeping well since november. [ light laughter ] tossing and turning has officially passed baseball as americas pasttime. [ laughter ] other trump aides even went a step further than tillerson, essentially telling the rest of the world not to take trump seriously. One aide told a reporter for politico, fire and fury was not carefully vetted language from trump. Dont read too much into it. Dont worry, nobody has ever read into what this president says. Hes not the the da vinci code. There are no secret clues. Hm, haters and losers. What could he have possibly meant by that . [ light laughter ] so naturally hearing that some of his aides and advisers might have been trying to tone things down trump went back in front of the cameras today and doubled down. Insisting that his original fire and fury comment might actually not have been strong enough. For people that were questioning that statement, was it too tough . Maybe it wasnt tough enough. So if anything, maybe that statement wasnt tough enough. Seth not tough enough . What would be tougher than fire and fury . [ light laughter ] fire and fury and bees . [ laughter ] too fire, too furious . [ laughter and applause ] whats crazy about all of this is that the original comments that trump is now doubling down on were improvised on the spot during a briefing on the opioid crisis. In fact the paper he seemed to be looking at wasnt even a scripted statement on north korea, it was a fact sheet on that crisis. And you can you tell trump was familiar with the facts from the ingenious plan he came up with for stopping the opioid epidemic. Talking to youth, and telling them no good, really bad for you. In every way. But if they dont start, it will never be a problem. Seth you know if you dont want people to start taking drugs, stop making them think the end of the world is imminent. [ light laughter ] i will rain hellfire on my enemies until no man but me is left standing on the burning heap of what was once civilization. Also, say no to drugs, kids. [ light laughter ] theyre bad. [ applause ] and while some some of trumps advisers may be trying to calm things down, the more unhinged members of his staff are only matching trumps threats with even more outlandish statements. Like assistant to the president , Sebastian Gorka who said this on fox news. Hes saying dont test america and dont test donald j. Trump. We are not just a super power, we were a super power. We are now a hyper power. [ light laughter ] seth a hyperpower . Why dont you throw your time machine into hyperpower, and go back to when goatees were popular. [ light laughter ] gorka went on to ratchet up the rhetoric even further by comparing the north korea situation to Previous Nuclear confrontations and insisting that all americans should support trump whether they agree with him or not. These are the moments when we have to come together as a nation, and support the executive. These are the trying times. During the cuban missile crisis, we stood behind jfk. This is analogous to the cuban missile crisis. Seth hes right. This is just like jfks handling of the cuban missile crisis. Who can forget jfks stirring words that calmed the fears of a worried nation. This government has maintained the closest surveillance of the soviet military buildup on the island of cuba. And i just have one thing to say to the soviets ask not what your ass can do for my foot. Ask what my foot can do for your ass. [ light laughter ] [ cheers and applause ] seth but even members of trumps own party are deeply skeptical of his reckless threats, partly because they dont fully understand what they even mean. Take arizona senator john mccain who said he took exception to trumps remarks. Asked specifically about the fire and fury comment, mccain said of trump, i dont know what hes saying and ive long ago givin up trying to interpret what he says. [ light laughter ] senators now treat the words of the president the way new yorkers treat subway announcements. I think he said this train is now skipping every stop . I dont know. As long as it goes somewhere. So what is trump saying . Well, it might be instructive to look at his past statements on the issue to understand his thinking. For example, a clip of trump talking about north koreas Weapons Program back in 1999 has resurfaced. And lets just say it does not inspire a lot of confidence. You say that you as president would be willing to launch a preemptive strike against north Koreas Nuclear capability . First, id negotiate. I would negotiate like crazy. Seth and in fairness, hes keeping his promise. Hes negotiating like a crazy person. [ light laughter ] hes negotiating with kim jongun like hes riggs from lethal weapon. Do you really want to jump . Do you wanna . [ laughter ] [ applause ] seth and wilkerson isnt the only one criticizing trump. Theres also retired general wesley clark who is similarly alarmed at trumps handling of the situation. You cant be engaging in schoolboy rhetoric with north korea. This is absurd. Seth well of course hes going to. Hes donald trump, hes the schoolboy in chief. He literally bragged about how great of a whiner he is. I am the most fabulous whiner. I do whine because i wanna win. I am a whiner and im a whiner and i keep whining and whining until i win. Seth that of course is from the famous dr. Seuss book whining and winning. [ light laughter ] i whine and i whine and i whine til i win. And ill whine once again until i double winwin. [ light laughter ] so with the president basically a growing credibility crisis and new challenges presenting themselves every day. Its perhaps no surprise that trumps team is looking for a new Communications Director after the firing of former White House Press secretary sean spicer. Spicer for his part seems to be enjoying his new found freedom. On saturday he was spotted at fenway park enjoying a Boston Red Sox game. And just to make sure he felt at home, the red sox gave him a seat where spicer was most comfortable. [ light laughter ] so who is in line to become trumps next Communications Director . Well according to reports, trump is considering Senior Policy Adviser Steven Miller to fill the role. Steven miller . He doesnt look like a Communications Director. He looks like a funeral director. [ laughter ] he looks like a haunted painting whose eyes follow you around the room. Woah [ light laughter ] and miller definitely seems to be auditioning for the job because he went on fox news this week to publicly stroke trumps ego by lavishing praise on him with this outlandish comment. President trump is the most gifted politician of our time and the best orator to hold that office in generations. Seth could Steven Miller be any creepier . I bet he doesnt even call trump mr. President. He just calls him master. He probably lives under the stairs with eric. [ laughter ] father, thank you for bringing me a friend come steven. Let me show you where i keep my rocks [ laughter ] [ cheers and applause ] so whether its miller or someone else, whoever does get the Communications Job will apparently have some very demeaning tasks to complete. Tasks specifically designed to soothe trumps fragile ego. For example, vice news reported yesterday that twice a day since the beginning of the trump administration, a special folder is prepared for the president. The first document is prepared around 9 30am and the followup around 4 30 p. M. The folders are filled with screen shots of positive cable news kyrons, admiring tweets, transcripts of fawning tv interviews, praise filled news stories, and sometimes just pictures of trump on tv looking powerful. Why go through the trouble printing stuff out when you can just hand him a postit note that says your penis is fine. [ laughter and applause ] also, there are no pictures of trump looking powerful. Whenever trump makes a serious face he looks like hes trying to remember if he closed the garage door. [ light laughter ] [ scattered applause ] its closed. So trumps own aides are telling voters and World Leaders to ignore him. And now trumps closest confidante seem to be planning ahead for the possibility that he might not even run for reelection. It was reported last week that Vice President mike pence was positioning himself to run in 2020. And while pence denied that report, new excerpts from former communication director Anthony Scaramuccis vulgar interview with the new yorker seems to confirm it. Scaramucci was referring pences decision to appoint a political operative named nick ayers as the new chief of staff. He told the new yorker, why do you think nicks there, bro, are you stupid . Why is nick there . Nick is there to protect the Vice President , because the Vice President cant believe what the [ bleep ] is going on. [ light laughter ] oh, he cant . Mike pence cant believe it. Did you not hear about the access Hollywood Tape or the Trump University Fraud Lawsuit or calling mexicans rapists or the russian intanglments. Mike pence knows exactly whats going on. He agreed to play backup quarterback to a guy with two bad knees who only throws interceptions. Bull[ bleep ] mike pence cant believe it [ cheers and applause ] sorry. Just i havent i havent slept since november. This has been a closer look. [ cheers and applause ] seth well be right back with howie mandel, everybody [ cheers and applause ] announcer for of seths closer looks, be sure to subscribe to late night on youtube. Starting thursday at kohls take 25 off under armour thats 25 off select under armour shoes, fleece, tees, shorts and more for the whole family and, everyone gets kohls cash earn it on everything spend it on anything get your game on with under armour. Kohls liz assumed all dressingsrust were made equal. Assume nothing. Just like the leading brands, these kraft dressings are made with high quality ingredients, at a price you can feel good about. No wonder kraft is so good. I cant believe it comes in. How great this tastes vegaaaan. And organiiiic. 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[ cheers and applause ] also were so lucky this week. Weve had the fantastic drummer from beyonces band sitting in with us who you can see her in Pitch Perfect 3 in theaters this december. Venzella joy, everybody. [ cheers and applause ] thank you so much for a great week. Thank you. Seth please come back soon. Yes, indeed, thank you. Our first guest tonight is a comedian, actor and one of the judges on the hit show, americas got talent, which airs tuesday and wednesday nights here on nbc. The live shows begin august 15th from the dolby theater in l. A. Please welcome to the show howie mandel, everybody [ cheers and applause ] seth welcome, howie. Im so happy to have you here. It is good to be here. I feel good. It is so im at a really nice time in my life right now. Seth oh, thats wonderful. [ light laughter ] yes. Why does that get a laugh . Seth yeah. If i say things are going well i just had my second grandchild. Seth congratulations [ cheers and applause ] no, dont wait. Dont applaud. My daughter is 13, so were a little upset. Seth oh, yeah, yeah. [ laughter ] shes very friendly and we got to teach her, you know just seth and its the second one . Its the second one. Well, shes 13. So you know. Seth do you i would ask this question because i have a 16monthold. Okay. Seth and im now at the age where he can be entertained. So you try to entertain him. Do you try to entertain your grandkids . Do you try to make them laugh . Yeah, i do. And you know what happens is thats how i spend my days now. And thats why i feel good. And you find you know, i spent so many years writing material and i still tour as a comic. But most of my time entertaining is to entertain a 1yearold or a, you know, a 2yearold and your sense of humor changes and you find that like even i got here yesterday and i went to a restaurant and the whole got your nose routine doesnt work on the maitre d as well as it does. Seth yeah. [ laughter ] right. You know, i thought maybe id get a better table. You know what i did . In the street you got to try this. Go up to a stranger from behind and cover their eyes and go, guess who. Seth yeah. [ laughter ] and theyll keep guessing. My record now is 35 minutes. No. [ laughter ] is it paul . No. David . No. New york is real weird for me in the street. My daughter before shes not 13. That was a shes watching so she you got to know that i joke and thats how you were able to grow up in the house you grew up in. [ light laughter ] but i no, im just explaining to her. Shed go, why did you say i was 13 . But when she was here she was pregnant and i dont know if your wife experienced this. Do you live right in the city . Seth yes, we do. Did you find that strangers would touch her stomach. Seth yes. Would actually touch they go up to a pregnant woman and they would go, oh, when . Like, i would never put my hand on a woman first of all, what if shes not pregnant . Seth yeah. [ laughter ] like when its like when did you have lunch . Seth yeah. [ laughter ] because it looks like you really enjoyed it. Seth so helpful. It is. Seth i feel like nobody ever tells you these helpful tips. [ light laughter ] thats why im here. Im here to tell you. You know whats funny, im looking at whats your name . Youre a beautiful young lady, beyonces drummer. Joy. Seth oh, venzella over there. Yeah. You were looking at me like you were disgusted when i said [ laughter ] did i disgust you . Im just a little bit. Just a little bit . Just a little bit. Sorry. Seth im sorry. We try to not have disgusted drummers in the eye line of the guest. Yeah. Seth you mentioned you not only you started standup. You still do standup. I know you were just in vegas doing standup. I was. I was with david spade. Seth david spade, a very funny guy. Hes hysterical. Me and david were at the [ scattered applause ] you know what, i got to tell what you happened in vegas, this is funny. I years ago before i was doing agt i hosted a game show called deal or no deal. Seth yeah. And deal or no deal [ applause ] no thank you. [ light laughter ] thank you. Thank you. Im holding for applause. Because you can fill in more later. Right . Seth yeah, well just put. [ laughter ] oh, sit down. Sit down [ laughter ] thats crazy. I wasnt expecting this kind of response. But so they have deal or no deal slot machines in the casino. And we went there, my wife was with me, and we went with another couple. Louie and kathy. And they were downstairs in the casino and before the show i stay in the room. My wife calls me in the room and said, howie, youve got to see this. Louie was playing the deal or no deal machine, he hit the jackpot and won 10,000. Seth fantastic. You got to see that. I said, well, this is great. I put on my coat, i ran out of my room. Down the hall, into the elevator. Across the whole casino i see the lights going off on the deal or no deal machine. His wife is crying. Theyre peeling off hundreds. Theyre giving her 100,000. I go and give them a hug and this is lifechanging. 10,000. I notice theres lights and a crowd around me and i look and people are taking pictures. And i realize, they have no idea that this is my friend. People think that if you hit the jackpot [ laughter ] on the deal or no deal machine, i show up. So [ laughter and applause ] thank you, thank you. So i looked at them and i went oh, Somebody Just hit in reno and i went and then [ laughter ] you can see in the distance, the whole crowd moving over to the wheel of fortune machine, awaiting pat sajac. Seth yeah, of course. [ laughter ] yes. Seth so this very exciting. This is the twelfth season of americas got talent. So your sixth season. Eight. Seth on the its eight for you. Eight. Seth congratulations. Oh, you were doing the canadian exchange. I see what you were doing there. Seth yeah, i was shifting it back. [ laughter ] our years. Seth and first year with glasses though for you. You know, youve noticed . Seth yeah. You noticed. You know whats weird . Im an old guy and apparently my wife said, whens the last time you went to the optometrist . Ive never been to an optometrist. Seth yeah. I went this year. And i dont think my my vision is no different than ive ever noticed it. He said that im legally blind. These are very strong. And i put them on [ light laughter ] why does my inability to see make you laugh. [ laughter ] but now i have to wear glasses and im wearing glasses full time. Not for reading, full time. I was blind. I was legally blind. [ light laughter ] wait. And i have been judging a talent show for eight years. Seth yeah. [ laughter and applause ] this this is the first season ive seen it. It is so good. Seth yeah. [ laughter ] congratulations. It is so good. And were going live this tuesday and im going to be tweeting live. Are you are you big on twitter . Seth yeah. howiemandel. I love to tweet live. Follow me. Follow me seth youre coming off a little desperate right now. No, no [ laughter ] youre not you dont understand seth who the twitter thing was i was finished. Im looking at people there and im saying, at the end of the show im going to be in the lobby. And i want all of you to follow me someplace, not on twitter. [ laughter ] just really, literally, i want this seth yeah. Wouldnt it be great to show backup in my hotel with all of these people . Seth yeah. [ laughter and applause ] just wait until the rest of the show is over. Dont follow him now. [ cheers and applause ] i cant wait thats very exciting that youre doing the live shows. Thats great. It is very exciting. At the dolby theater live tuesdays and wednesdays. This year is more exciting and better than any other year. I mean, we got we have some superstars. Last year my Golden Buzzer won grace vanderwaal. This twelveyearold. Seth she was fantastic. A genius, songwriter, performer who is going to be i promise you still. You know, shes, like, number one selling in japan now. Seth oh, thats great. She had the number one downloading itunes, last year, single and shes just growing and this year i have another Golden Buzzer. This young boy, christian, is isnt that weird that a jew pressed a buzzer for a christian . Seth thats good. [ laughter ] i feel like the worlds are coming together. Thats what i do. Seth we need more of that. Thats what i do. Seth we need more of that. [ laughter ] seth thank you so much for being here, howie. Thank you for having me. Seth howie mandel, everybody americas got talent, tuesdays and wednesday nights at eight here on nbc. Well be right back with senator Tammy Duckworth. [ cheers and applause ] welcome to maxx you. You are whimsical, vibrant, statement making. You stand out in a crowd. And are pulled together. You follow your own lead and show your strength. Always comfortable in your own skin. 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Our next guest was awarded the purple heart for her service in the iraq war. She is currently a United States senator representing illinois. Please welcome to the show, senator Tammy Duckworth, everyone [ cheers and applause ] seth thank you so much for being here, senator. Oh, im thrilled, im thrilled. Seth i really appreciate it. So, you you served in iraq. I did. Seth you were in the house of representatives, now youre a freshman senator. I am. Seth these are all very stressful things that youve done. Yes. Seth yet, is now the most stressful time that you have had doing any of your jobs . Definitely. When i was elected to the house of representatives six months into my job as a congresswoman, i got put on Blood Pressure medication. Three months into my job as a United States senator they doubled it. [ laughter ] seth okay. So that is just so even being closer to it, is obviously, not more helpful as far as things like Blood Pressure go. No, no. Not at all. Seth so, in 2004 you served in iraq, youre in a helicopter, your copiloting, you get hit by an rpg. You lose both your legs. And yet you make a decision, it seems to me, that you sort of deal with it with humor. As opposed to letting it sort of sink your spirits. Is that something that came to you naturally . Is that a decision you had to make, or did it just happen . Well it was a combination of things. One, when i talk to my buddies who saved me, who carried me out of that field. You know, i was bleeding they said it was like the opening scene from saving private ryan. And they went through horrendous sacrifice to save me and i just thought, boy, if i were to just go home and feel sorry for myself and do nothing, it would have dishonored every step, every breath, every moment that if felt like their hearts were bursting from the effort of saving me. So i just said, im going to look at this as a Second Chance at life, and then also theres a lot of gallows humor at walter reed when i was there. Seth yeah, so i visited walter reed once, and i was very taken with because you dont know what to expect, when you go to see wounded soldiers. No. Seth and i was so taken with, not only their spirit, but the sense of humor was thick at walter reed. And you guys made tshirts when you were there. We did. So, some of them i cant describe on the air. Seth because theyre too dirty. [ light laughter ] theyre too dirty, theyre too dirty. Theyre not for mixed company. But there are some, for example, i have one that says come on, i know you want to touch it. [ laughter ] or, i do my own stunts. Seth okay, yeah. [ light laughter ] or oh, the one that a lot of the guys had, they took pictures of their xrays of their severed limbs or whatever, and they put it on a tshirt and just said, rub some beer on it, walk it off, youll be fine. [ laughter ] seth i went and i met someone, and he had a poster board that people had signed. He said will you sign it for me . And i saw president obamas signature, and i said oh wow, president obama was here. And he said, yeah, but im more excited to meet you. And i said aw, youre just saying that. And he said well, put it this way, you didnt send me to afghanistan. [ laughter ] exactly, exactly. Well i i actually refused to let secretary rumsfeld into my hospital room. But i became great friends with al franken. Seth so, there you go. And so thats when you first met al franken. [ cheers and applause ] thats when i met him. He was he was doing u. S. O. Tours. Seth so, lets talk about north korea, because you have this military background. When you hear the president use terms like fire and fury, i feel as though thats what he thinks someone with a Strong Military will would say. But as someone who was in the military, is that the kind of language that military people use . No. The toughest fighters out there, the operators out there, are the quietest, most understated people you will meet, and frankly, hes not helping us by engaging in this battle of of terminology. I mean, you cant outhyperbole a dictator whos crazy. A man who executed his own uncle with an aircraft an antiaircraft machine gun. Seth yeah. So trump is not going to outcrazy kim jongun. Stop it, youre the commanderinchief of the greatest military on the face of the earth. Act like it. [ cheers and applause ] seth do you think obviously he feels that presenting toughness is the same as toughness. Is that do you think its a mistake to present toughness the way he is . Or is that, or is there an argument that thats the smart thing to do. When you do have the best military in the world, you let people know . Well, you have to understand, that kim jongun is trying to consolidate power. And one of the ways hes doing that is by executing anybody that doesnt please him. The others who tell the koreans the north korean people, youre starving but its because the world wants to attack us. So i have to take the money, that instead of giving you rice, im going to use it to build a nuclear weapon. And when youve got the leader of the free world, the president of the United States, engaging in this, all youre doing is youre just writing the propaganda for kim jongun. All of those tweets that trump has been putting out in these statements, kim jongun is going to put out through his own propaganda machine. He might as well be working for him. That doesnt help us. Seth i think those now trump thinks [ applause ] he probably sees these like, now my tweets are even in north korea, this is huge for me. [ light laughter ] yeah, well again, you remember, youre never going to beat a guy who fires people by killing them with antiaircraft weapons. Seth yeah, well now, i also want to ask about this, you know, you obviously believe you have a background that leads to a diverse part of the military. It seems to me that diversity in the military is an important thing. Donald trump said he was doing a favor to the military by his trans ban through his trans ban. What do you think of that . What do you think the president said to the people in the military with that choice . He basically said that one, even if you have served honorably, we dont want you any more. And that means that if you are trans, then youre going to have two choices. Either quit and take your experience with you. Or hide who you are and make yourself susceptible to blackmail. Thats what happened under dont ask, dont tell. Under dont ask, dont tell, a lot of folks were actually being held hostage by people who knew that they were gay. And threatened them, and threatened their careers. So, thats not helpful. And on the other hand, we have had tens of thousands of Trans Service men and women who have served honorably, who have bled, who have died for this country, and to turn away people who are willing to sacrifice for us, is foolish at best. Seth i agree with that. [ cheers and applause ] you obviously youve served your country, you sacrificed for your country via the military. But you always make it clear, it strikes me that, there are other ways to serve for young people. You dont necessarily have to do it via the military. What give us some other ideas of how you think people can serve this country . Well, ive introduced legislation along with seth moulton and the great john lewis, that would allow people to earn, for example, College Money for service. You should be able to pick up a chalk, a hammer, a ladle at a soup kitchen and earn College Money, just as i much i picked up a rifle, and earned College Money. We all have a chance to serve, even if just once a year you go out volunteer, youre doing something. Less than onehalf of 1 of this nation that wears the uniform. And thats an awful big load for a small percentage to carry. So, lets all do a little carrying. It doesnt mean you have to go join the military, it doesnt mean you got to get blown up. God forbid, i tried not to get blown up. But it didnt work too well. But but do something. Do something. [ cheers and applause ] seth how much longer a break do you have . When do you have to go back to d. C. . Im going back tonight. So i seth youre going back this soon . Im going back tonight. Seth i thought you guys had a recess now. No . Well, people call it a recess, but its actually a district work period, im traveling the state. I was out in on a river barge on the mississippi 48 hours ago, and now im here and im going back home tomorrow. Seth recess sounds so much better than district work period, that [ laughter ] i thought i was getting a recess, but then they told me, heres your schedule. And im like wait, thats not right. Seth thats not recess. I wanted i thought we were playing dodgeball. Yeah. [ laughter ] seth well, thank you so much for being here. Continued luck in washington. [ cheers and applause ] senator Tammy Duckworth, everybody. Well be right back with aaron schatz. [ cheers and applause ] introducing the new moto z with moto mods. Hello moto. 321 liftoff gasps oh cheering buy the new moto z with shattershield, and youll get a free projector mod. Hello moto. Four seconds on the clock, championship on the line. Erin the sharpshooter shanahan fakes left. Shes outside of the key, she shoots. She scores uh. Yes, erin, it is great time to score a deal. We need to make room for the 2018 models. Relive the thrill of beating the clock. The volkswagen model year end event. Hurry in for a 1,500 in available bonuses and 0 apr for 60 months on a new 2017 jetta or passat. Liz assumed all dressingsrust were made equal. Assume nothing. Just like the leading brands, these kraft dressings are made with high quality ingredients, at a price you can feel good about. No wonder kraft is so good. Ball park franks got their right here in the ballpark. They soon became a summer tradition, passed from one generation to the next. With the taste of 100 angus beef, ball park franks bring on summer. Modern life deserves a mits sold out. Ay. Dont fret, my friend. I masterpassed it you can use it online and on your phone i masterpassed it. You got the tickets . Onward playing the hero priceless masterpass. The secure way to pay from your bank dont just buy it. Masterpass it. Deputy Robert French was killed during a shootout with a suspect at a motel. The gunman is from the bay area. That story is updated on our website. Reveal plus record breaking heat is headed our way. Triple digits begin thursday. We re tweeting the updated forecast. [ cheers and applause ] seth welcome back, everybody. Our next guest is an nfl analyst, statistician, and the editor in chief of footballoutsiders. Com. Hes also the editor of football outsiders almanac which is available now. Please welcome to the show aaron schatz, everybody [ cheers and applause ] seth so happy youre here. Ive been a fan of yours for a long time. And this is interesting, because there before you, there was not this sort of exhaustive analytical, statistical, analysis of football, and the way that you did it. And you first started this because you wanted to prove a reporter wrong. Can you explain that . Isnt that how everybody starts their careers . I dont know. [ light laughter ] so i was just a run of the mill patriots fan. I was working in the internet industry. [ applause ] Patriots Fans . Okay, all right. [ cheers ] and so 2002 came, and they had won the super bowl the year before. They missed the playoffs and a fellow by the name of ron borges who at the time, was writing for the boston globe, would write that the reason that the patriots didnt make it back to the playoffs, was that they couldnt establish the run. And at the same time, ron borges, the team that he liked to win it all, was oakland. And back then their running back was a guy named charlie garner, who was basically a pass receiver, and they ran less than any other team. So, i said this doesnt add up. How how can you believe that teams need to run as much as possible, and yet your Favorite Team is the one that never runs . Seth yeah. So im like, okay, so, i was big fan of bill james and all of those baseball analyticians. And they got started, they were just working their day jobs, and their looking through box scores and start counting numbers to try to answer questions. I said, im going to go do the same thing. So i started counting through box scores to see whether teams that ran the ball more early in games, no matter how good they were at it, did they actually win more games . And thats what we we would now call fake news. Seth okay, gotcha. [ light laughter ] and but this big database of like every play in the nfl season from 2002. So, im like, okay. Well, what can i do with this . So, i started brainstorming and creating these stats and and then i started writing some articles and sharing it with people, and there was some interest. Seth and then when did you realize, oh, i can make a career of this . Theres a market for this kind of statistical analysis. Well, i didnt know at first. But i i shared with some people i knew in the Sports Industry through my internet job. And they said, this is probably a little too esoteric for the sites like espn and foxsports. Com, but you know, you might find some interest. So, me and some fraternity brothers, we started this website. And the lucky thing that happened for me was, we started it around the same time that Michael Lewis wrote moneyball. Seth sure, about the oakland as, and billy bean and how they used statistics to sort of outdo the competition. Right, and so all of a sudden now, everybody in the Business World in particular, are all talking about the i. T. Of sports analytics. And they go looking on the internet for you know, the moneyball of fill in name of sport. Seth right. And there we are. [ light laughter ] the moneyball of the nfl. Which just happens to be the most popular sport in the United States. And were the website that has finally launched to do this. And we grew from there. Seth and now, of course, moneyball was you know, it was about teams finding these sort of genius statisticians to give them an advantage over other teams. Do you feel like nfl teams are using your stats, and using the work that youve done, to try to make their teams better . Yeah, a lot of them use our stats or from companies, you know, other websites and writers that have sprung up somewhat similar to us. And people are getting hired by teams. The things in the nfl are very proprietary, so teams are secretive about it. But theyre using it more and more. And the other thing is, that in the nfl, they have more information than ill ever have. Certainly they know more about their own players than i ever will, because they can break down the film and create stats off of that, knowing what the play calls were. Talking to the coaches about which players were doing the right thing, or not doing the right thing. A lot of times when youre on outside, its hard to tell what the players responsibility was on the play. Seth on the outside, can you still watch football and enjoy it . Or are you constantly seeing ones and zeros when youre watching a game . [ light laughter ] it depends if its fourth and short or not. Seth okay, gotcha. [ light laughter ] it depends, right. If its fourth or short, all i see are numbers and i start yelling at the television. Now, when the patriots are on the road, i watch the 1 00 and 4 00 games, pretty much like any other fan. Im rooting for my team. Im routing for my fantasy football players, im watching with friends. I also tweet out to the followers on twitter, and im taking notes for the site, but i dont get into the like, number breakdown stuff, until the nbc game is on, on sunday nights. And then usually, when im watching that game, i have to be working on stuff, cause i have to run things when the game is over to put articles up on monday. When the patriots are at home, im usually at Gillette Stadium in the press box where the desserts are delicious. Seth oh, thats good to know. [ light laughter ] and i would hardily recommend people being part of the boston sports media solely for the Red Velvet Cake at Gillette Stadium. Seth im going to ask you a few quick questions. Lightning round. About football coming up, jay cutler to the dolphins, is going to make any impact on the dolphins season . You know, i actually dont think hes that much different in quality from tannehill, if his shoulder is okay. The problem with cutler is you dont know if the shoulders okay, cause hes 34, he had the labrum surgery last year. Also, this is not statistics, but no one seems to like him. Seth yeah. [ laughter ] so, i would think, like im not a worlds expert on chemistry, but theres never been any really good stories about jay cutler and chemistry. Seth well, people seem to like people more in florida. [ light laughter ] patriots repeating as super bowl champions . I mean, theyre the theyre the clear easy fit. Seth yeah. Right, theyre the best team in the league, they built more over the offseason. They have the easiest projected schedule by our numbers. Seth so what is when you are the presumptive favorite, and you have all of those things going for you, what as a statistician, what percent of this if you played a million seasons, how many do the patriots win . What percentage do they win . Well, it turns out we did play a million seasons in this book. And thats the thing, right . I mean, theres 32 teams and theres a lot of things you cant predict. So even the best team that is so clearly ahead of everybody else, only wins the super bowl 22 of the time. Seth wow, so the rest of us have a shot . Everybody else has a shot, just the patriots have the biggest shot. Seth how many times do the browns win . [ light laughter ] more than six. Seth more than six out of a million . Yes. Seth all right, well thats exciting for the people of cleveland. [ laughter ] thank you so much for being here. I really appreciate it. Aaron schatz, everybody. Football outsiders almanac is available now on footballoutsiders. Com. Well be right back. 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Head over to itunes and subscribe to the late night with seth meyers podcast. Youll get a closer look and more. Download it right to your phone. [ cheers and applause ] seth my thanks to howie mandel, senator Tammy Duckworth, aaron schatz, venzella joy. Thank you so much 8g band. Stay tuned for carson daly. Well see you tomorrow. [ cheers and applause ] carson welcome to last call. Im carson daly, and this is the beautiful penthouse suite here at the time