4 00 in the morning we can tell you joe biden is overperforming from where Hillary Clinton was 81 of that vote in but still 20 of maricopa is out. One of the reasons why we cant project the state just yet. One of the stronghold, pima, tucson, 6038, overperforming there. The trend so far and its been holding for the last two to three hours, you would know better than me, democrats are in a good position in arizona but its just with 20 out you just cant project it yet. Whit johnson, the vote is just trickling in, that remaining vote. Reporter were getting more clarity on the outstanding ballots that exist. We just talked to Maricopa County officials again and we keep going back to them because as we mentioned Maricopa County makes up at least 60 of the vote here in arizona. Within the next ten minutes but talking to my producer, it still hasnt come up they were trying to do the final dump of results and this is the inperson votes from today. They were counting those throughout the night and thought they were going to finish that up so could get those results at any moment but there are still several hundred thousand outstanding ballots and they gave us some clarity on that. We talked about the near 250,000 absentee ballots that people dropped off in person. Some of those were actually dropped off over the weekend. If you remember the early Voting Period stopped on october 30th, some people dropped off their ballots over the weekend and then you have a separate category of people who walked into the polling locations today and dropped off their ballots as well. When we went around and talked to voters we saw people doing that. That still amounts to several hundred thousand outstanding ballots so what were seeing from the republicans, governor ducey, marsha mcsally, they are telling people to pump the brakes and want to make sure every vote is counted. Democrats on the other hand are feverishly doing the math. One reason i got into journalism i was told there wouldnt be a lot of math involved so i cant tell you if President Trump can make up this ground. But democrats remain extremely confident that theyre going to hold on to the win tonight. Were waiting for one more dump of votes coming we hope shortly. We have to take mother break. Well be right back. , watch your blue light lanterns, blast those eardrum bangers look at this one hes trying to pick up the mail hah silly. Oh. Silly humans. Who do you think you are . Pain will bring you to your senses. You cannot keep this up pain says you cant. Advil says you can. When panhe doesnt justs mmake a pizza. He uses fresh, clean ingredients to make a masterpiece. Taste our delicious new flatbread pizzas today. Panera. Okay, so, magnificent mile for me i thought i was managing. My moderate to severe Crohns Disease. Until i realized. Something was missing. Me. You okay, sis . My symptoms were keeping me. From really being there for my sisters. 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Lets bring in the director of domestic studies at stand toward and former policy director for mitt romney. Give me your read of the night so far. Well, you know, i think the president has outperformed a lot of the expectations. Are we really going to tell a story about the hispanic vote shifting or not understanding for thinking carefully enough about the texture in the Latino Community. In other words, the Latino Community in miamidade different from the one in Maricopa County, arizona. Are we seeing a real shift in the latino vote or something thats limited to certain segments . I think that will be an interesting story well pursue. How about the story of your director of the Public Policy program . Whoever wins whether its joe biden or donald trump, it looks like the democrats will retain the house, the senate will be very close. Either way republicans appear to have the edge right now. How is the next president of the United States going to govern this country . Well, you know, either way the senate plays a really interesting role. The Senate Remains republican which appears as though will happen. Its either going to be a bulwark against joe biden going too far to the left on policy, so Something Like the Coronavirus Relief legislation we might see in january. The fact that theres a Republican Senate there makes it maybe a 2 trillion package instead of a 3 trillion package. Some things he may have wanted to do on energy yet constrained by that republican controlled senate. If donald trump takes over hes still got to deal with a Democratic House but the question is, how does the Republican Senate now factor in . Does the Republican Senate then try to work as the broker between the Democratic House and President Trump . You know, might we see action on Something LikePrescription Drug pricing which a lot of people have said would be a bipartisan priority so these are the things im going to be watching for but the senate is going to play a very key role in the policymaking process going forward. Lanhee chen, thanks very much. Nate, i come to you once an hour to tell all of us what youre looking at right now. How you see the map changing. What you think the key factors are that will decide the race. At this point its more state by state so kind of learning which ballots are outstanding, not about making projections as much. The one this is probably out of date, right . You might want to reset that but heres if trump wins wisconsin but biden wins michigan, different scenarios when you brought it up, wisconsin is where we might get the most news. Milwaukee county is expected to announce its absentee ballots soon. Kenosha county has absentees, the city of green bay. It will close enough for biden to overtake trump . Were trying to get as much information as we can. Not clear how many votes are outstanding. It looks to the naked eye, warning people all night, those margins in pennsylvania, that margin is in wisconsin is actually quite large and would be difficult to make up. So wisconsin is a different category in that it claims its going to have a count by some point early in the morning or maybe early in the afternoon today, wednesday. Whereas michigan and pennsylvania said itll take a few days so people should not i think bucket those altogether. Wisconsin, arizona, nevada which hasnt been called yet. These are states we might know relatively soon. Michigan and pennsylvania might take longer. North carolina, were waiting for late return ballots so by definition will take a longer period of time. Georgia, were waiting on a couple of key county, georgia is not terribly fast counting state so we have seven different stories and seven different uncalled state. Wisconsin perhaps being that close, i mean maybe its too early to make this conclusion but did we have another significant polling error in the state of wisconsin . I dont remember the exact average by the end of the campaign, but i thought that joe bidens margin was in the eight to tenpoint range. He had a pretty big lead in the high quality polls by around 8 1 2 points. He was up double digits in some polls. Even if he wins by one, i think pollsters will have to ask whats going on there. In minnesota the polls look fairly close. Thats a weird thing but wisconsin, giving headaches to democrats again although they do have democratic areas left to report. Nate silver. Thanks very much. Well be right back. Small cellg cancer can take away so much. But today theres a combination of two immunotherapies you can take first. 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To grab, trap and lock away gross dust. Nice for dust on my floors, i switch to sweeper. The heavy duty cloths reach deep in grooves to grab, trap and lock dust bunnies. No matter where they hide. No more heebie jeebies. Phhhhew. Glad i stopped cleaning and started swiffering. We are back now at abc news election headquarters waiting for key vote, expecting some, we hope, within the next hour or two from those two key states, arizona and wisconsin. Right now joe biden has the lead in arizona, donald trump has the lead in wisconsin. As we said were waiting votes from both of those states. While were waiting let me bring in mike muse from the mike muse show. I know youve been active working with the Biden Campaign aimed at black males. Whats your read of whats been happening and did Vice President biden underperform with that key voting mike, i think we dont have mike right now. Sorry about that. Lets bring back wisconsin lets bring back deb roberts up in wisconsin. Deb, what more are we hearing about what vote we can expect in the next hour . I know they were hopeful we were close to getting votes from milwaukee. Reporter yeah, they are, hopeful, george. Theyre very, very its very slow going because theyve had a crush of these mailin and absentee ballots, something theyre not accustomed to doing. They usually have 6 . This time they have 60 . Milwaukee county is getting them together. Milwaukee, the city, still wasnt quite officially yet but we do hear that dane county, you heard about that, the very liberal town, those votes are coming in so were talking about probably 400,000 votes between the two of them that should be coming in, maybe within the next hour. But i also want to point out, george, though, because the president has hinted at fraud or maybe something that might be a little bit unsavory here but these Election Officials are bending over backwards to try to do this right. To dot the is and cross the ts. The commissioners are issuing statements talking about how careful they are being, in fact, in Milwaukee County once they get all of these votes tabulated and should be happening very soon, the election commissioner will be driven just a few blocks away with a Police Escort with 12 flash drives to take the votes to the county so that they can one by one start to unload them. So they are taking the utmost care to make sure they handle these votes very, very well and they want to make sure they do it, you know, in the way that no one can criticize so i think theyre taking probably great offense to the idea these votes could somehow be corrupt. They are going out of the way to make sure they taking painstaking time still working tonight just like the rest of us, so hopefully well start to see some movement pretty soon and may get an idea, maybe not necessarily within the next hour but certainly within the next few hours of where wisconsin is coming down. The democratic chair in the state is feeling confident but it might be hard for biden to make up these votes, but, you know, again, wisconsin is always a surprise and well see what happens there. Hopefully by the Early Morning hours. Republicans say they are confident as well. I think we have mike muse now. Thanks for joining us from sirius xm radio. I know you worked with the Biden Campaign on working with black males across the country. Some indications that maybe that group underperformed for the Vice President. What are you seeing tonight . Yeah, i think that President Trump had a really good effect on identifying with identifying with the black male vote. He was able to make inroads and the Platinum Program he created had a strong conversation, a lot of black men were curious about entrepreneurship, they were curious about the economics. They were curious about the job market. I think the democrats have to recognize is that black women are the backbone of the democratic party. That is a fact. But they also have to recognize is that the black male vote is up for grabs at this point and it is possible not only in this election 2020 but they have to be mindful they want to go into 2022 and 2024 if they want to solidify the black male vote they have to do more towards that outcome. Mike, thanks very much. Let me bring in Barbara Comstock from northern virginia. Your state has gone to joe biden. But donald trump is hanging this there winning Everything Else he won back in 2016 as were waiting for arizona. Yes, and i think some of the things that we havent heard as much about tonight is, well, first of all, obviously Mitch Mcconnell is a big winner here i think looking like hes going to be able to hold the senate obviously very narrowly but he has outspent and Chuck Schumer has been coming at him and hes been dealing with very difficult dynamics with both the administration and the president and within his own caucus and he is, you know, my number one star here and then secondly i think republican women looks like well pick up 12 to 14 new republican women who are going to be mostly in the house but a new senator also in joni ernst hanging in there so we have new female face, new latino faces also, you know, Donna Shalala was beaten by Maria Salazar who ran in 2018 and didnt win and now came back. I think we have two latino republican men who also won, so there is interestingly while the president has been, you know, sort of hemorrhaging with suburban women in areas like where i live, there is a new coalition and somewhat of a realign many and im happy to see it includes more diversity for the party and then i should add thirdly and i also serve on the republican state leadership committee, republicans did very well tonight Holding State legislatures in texas where there have been over 50 million spent against them, also in North Carolina where we also picked up a Lieutenant Governor spot, first africanamerican Lieutenant Governor republican, also in florida, so i believe new hampshire, so there were some really great pickups and that will impact redistricting and going forward. So i think theres a lot of good wins here, obviously we are very divided. 50 50 after all the hundreds of millions spent. Were still where we were four years ago, somewhat surprised but a very divisive environment but at least for the Republican Party, im happy to see more diversity here tonight and, you know, a farm team in the state legislature. Barbara, thanks very much. Right now you keep looking, jon karl, at all states coming in and dwire is still ahead as the vote ticks down right now and well look very closely inside those states to say, is there really enough vote left for joe biden to come back . Yeah, its deja vu from four years ago except the vote will take longer due to the circumstances of an election that took place during a pandemic with so much more mailin vote which is simply going to take time. But you have the same dynamic. We were very late four years ago on Election Night looking at results in pennsylvania and michigan and wisconsin. Thats what were doing again and i think i mean, again, weve got to be patient. Takes time to count the votes but theres a lot of ground that joe biden needs to make up to win those state. Nate silver, do you still believe that joe biden has more paths than donald trump . He has more paths, i mean the question is which are more promising . Well probably get results from milwaukee city, absentee ballots any moment now and will tell us quite a bit. Right now joe biden is about 100,000 votes behind where Hillary Clinton was in Milwaukee County overall in 2016. If he were to pick those up with those absentees we basically have a tie in wisconsin so i would also segregate wisconsin and say this is a state where well know a lot relatively soon where michigan and pennsylvania, there is still a lot of votes outremaining . How about you, rahm . I got to take michigan and michigan and pennsylvania aside. I think you got nevada and arizona, i think, george, its going to be so close it will go to a recount in that area and then obviously i talked to different people, texted with different elected officials from different states but i think actually michigan, if thats correct about georgia, michigan is going to play a more dominant role in this scenario. But i actually think for this question i think if we started where joe biden had a lot of paths, the president had a narrow path. The president has a few more paths and joe bidens paths have narrowed down to just a few choice. Despite the president s speech people inside the white house confident. Yes, i mean, listen, ive had two prominent White House Campaign people say to me, its over. I mean, they believe that the margins are too great in pennsylvania and in wisconsin and they dont believe theyll lose georgia and they think they have a shot to win michigan. Which just makes it incredible that he did what he did to undermine faith. He could have come out and said this, is a great day for american democracy. We are on the verge of shattering the modern day record for voter turnout. Theres a lot of vote to be counted. He could have echoed bidens words, i believe im going to win, but to go out there and say that people are being disenfranchised and say hell go to the Supreme Court to stop a vote count on an election which as we said hours ago hes got a good chance of winning. Got to take a break. Well be right back. Less oral steroids. Taking my treatment at home. Nucala is a oncemonthly addon injection for severe eosinophilic asthma. Not for sudden breathing problems. Allergic reactions can occur. Get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. Infections that can cause shingles have occurred. Dont stop steroids unless told by your doctor. Tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. May cause headache, injection site reactions, back pain, and fatigue. 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Joe biden has 221 electoral votes and rick klein, i know youve been in contact with experts from both sides trying to figure out where the outstanding votes are. What are you hearing . Several hundred thousands outstanding votes and theyre more democratic than republican for a couple reasons. One is that they tend to be in more urban areas. Those are democratically leaning areas. The democrats put a big emphasis this year on trying to turn out that early vote and pushing people to turn out early, to mail in their ballots, request ballots so for those two reasons were expecting were talking about disproportionate democratic numbers when they roll in. Some numbers out of wisconsin probably within the hour but as the numbers continue to roll in, it seems to me based on these conversations, the best shot joe biden has right now is to cling on in michigan as well as georgia. Those are the two best opportunities better than wisconsin and pennsylvania. The numbers are too big to my mind to see a clean victory in pennsylvania. Wisconsin may be a more complicated story and theres some people that still think there is a path there but, man, those are big margins to make up and it would just have to be enormous numbers of early votes that are basically all democrat. 75 , 80 for joe biden to be able to make up that gap. The question i asked nate silver. We saw joe biden had about an 8. 4 lead according to polling averages in wisconsin, about the same in michigan, not quite that much in pennsylvania, whatever happens right now, it looks like it will be much closer than that so might have had a systemic polling error again . A bigger one than 2016. The best early read i would have is that we didnt pick up the surge in trump voters. There were a lot of new biden voters but they were met at almost every turn by new trump voters and that helped hold down some of the marriagesens. It helped even hold on to a lot of socalled pivot county, the ones that went obama and trump. President trump found new voters in this election and matched them almost voter for voter against the voters of the democrats. This huge election i think a lot of pollsters thought if you had more turnout youd have more democrats but it may be you actually captured a lot of republicans as well and thats why the numbers, i think, have turned out the way they have. Jon karl, i see you nodding your head. I mean i think its a colossal polling error. It looks like the overall popular vote will be much closer than much of the national polling. And what we have seen in state after state after state is that donald trump found new voters and we knew that the democrats were expanding their base and the democrats did that pretty well actually. I mean, i mentioned texas where joe biden had about a million more votes than Hillary Clinton did. But donald trump somehow found a million more voters in texas to vote for him. Terry moran. When we say find new voters, it means that there are people that the pollsters didnt think were voters to begin with. In other words, the country is changing. Its a major realignment thats happening. Donald trump essentially broke the Republican Party. The Republican Party that we knew, you know, for a long, long time, the bush Republican Party, the reagan Republican Party, thats the wig party now. Its dead. This is the trump party and a totally Different Group of voters and demonstrates the power to attract at this early stage voters from other demographic groups. Thats the other big news in these numbers and they arent large shifts but they are palpable shifts that donald trump is the one who is diversifying the Republican Party, which is bigger than people understood it to be because its not the Republican Party anymore. Its the trump party. Is that true, sara fagen . I think its unquestionably the trump party and i think its going to stay the trump party. One of the things we havent talked about tonight is how few independent votes there were. I know they didnt get a lot of coverage but they were on ballots, and these Third Party Candidates got almost no votes and that also contributed to both of these candidates doing better in many of these jurisdictions. We talk a lot about this shy trump voter. I often have thought it was about 3 . It looks like it was closer to 6 tonight. Huge difference, sara fagen, thanks very much. Well be right back. 4 30 in the east. We are waiti votes to come in in wisconsin and arizona. Still waiting on nevada as well and know its going to take longer in michigan and pennsylvania. Georgia and North Carolina. Right now divided between joe biden and donald trump. 221 electoral votes for joe biden, 213 for donald trump. Donald trumps Republican Party right now, what does he do in the aftermath if he is able to pull out this win tonight . Well, listen, thats going to be the huge choice of the second term if he has one. And i think what he he continues to do a lot of things he had done already. Youll see h