Roads. A seismic wakeup call as the Senate Majority shrinks. He tried. I want to support the person running. We need the seat. Did republicans dodge a bullet . What does this mean for Steve Bannons war on the republican establishment . Whose side will trump take . Big questions for john cornyn. And the democrat leading their campaign to take back the senate, chris van hollen. And our powerhouse roundtable. Well break down the politics, smoke out the spin. The facts that matter. This week. Good morning. As we head into the holidays, it sure looks like President Trump and the gop will get what they want for christmas. The votes lined up for the largest tax cut in years. And trumps biggest legislative victory yet. What will it mean for the economy and the middle class . That may take years to determine. Well have two of americas prominent economists ahead. To analyze the impact. For now sh passing the tax plan, a Political Boost that the republicans need, after their worst political loss of the year in alabama. Will it look like a win one year from now . This is where it all began. Reporter this time last year, donald trump was thanking alabama voters. On his victory tour. Not this week. Despite the president s late push for the gop candidate get out and vote for roy moore. Do it. Do it. Reporter moores baggage was just too heavy. The leader of the party, i would have liked to have had the seat. Reporter and trumps clout a little light. The president won alabama by 28 points. Now his Approval Rating is below 50 in the reddest of red states. And hes caught in the crossfire of a gop civil war. With his former strategist steve bannon. To Mitch Mcconnell and senator shelby, theres a special place in hell [ cheers and applause ] for republicans who should know better. Reporter waging an allout assault on the Republican Leaders in congress who the president needs to work with every day. For democrats, tuesday the best day of 2017. We have come so far. And the people of alabama have spoken. Reporter young people, africanamericans, women, energized by trump and the me too Movement Made doug jones the first democratic senator from alabama in 25 years. And gave democrats hope that taking back the senate just might be possible. The midterm map favors republicans. Democrats defending 24 seats. Ten from states that went to trump last year. Only eight republican seats are up for reelection. And only dean heller is running in a state won by clinton. And the gop is betting their new tax bill is the insurance policy they need. Jobs are going to come pouring back into this country. Which we need very much. Reporter convinced that defeat on the tax bill would doom them in 2018, Mitch Mcconnell, paul ryan, and the president are pulling out all the stops. Claiming a promise kept to the middle class. Everybody will benefit. I think the greatest benefit will be for jobs and the middle class. Reporter independent analysts show the big winners from the bill are corporations and the wealthy. Polls show less than a third of the country supports it. One of the most unpopular bills in years. It has democrats hoping that the legislative defeat they expect this week will reap big victory in november. I think theyre in a loselose situation. If they dont pass the bill, they lose with their pay masters. If they do pass the bill, they lose with american people. Lets bring it to gop whip john cornyn of texas. Senator cornyn, thank you. You just heard leader pelosi, loselose for the republicans. Your response . This is good news for the american people. Well get the economy roaring back again. Improve pay. Encrease jobs. Make america more competitive in the Global Economy. As well as simplifying the tax code and giving everybody in every tax bracket a tax cut. This is good news any way you cut it. Is this a done deal . Do you have the votes even in senator mccain is not able to vote this week . Well, i wont speculate on senator mccains health. We hope he comes back. But im confident well pass this bill. Probably on tuesday. So you think you have the votes right now. Theres a lot more scrutiny of the bill. It was just released on friday in the final hours. Including an article in the International Business times that came out yesterday showing that a lastminute tax break not included in the house or senate provision could bring millions of dollars to President Trump and other republicans who get a lot of money from Real Estate Income through llcs. Our next guest responded to that saying slipping in a last minute provision that could give more of a windfall to President Trump and some republicans in congress is unconscionable. Its not too late for my colleagues to do the right thing. Will you remove that provision . My democratic colleagues refused to participate in the process. We probable could have made it better if they had. We were determined to get the job done, to cut taxes. Reform the tax code for the first time in 30 years. This will benefit hardworking american families. People in the lower income tax brackets. And everybody in every tax bracket will see a tax cut. Picking out one piece in a 1,000page bill and saying this will benefit somebody, i just think that takes the whole bill out of context. Except this provision wasnt included in the house or senate bill and was apparently added at the last minute. Why was that done . Why was it necessary to include that provision . We were working very hard. It was an intense process. As i said, the democrats refused to participate. And we tried to do cobble together the votes we needed to get the bill passed. At the same time, maintaining the integrity of the largest tax cuts were going to be seeing since 1986. Is that how you got senator corker with this provision . The particular provision youre talking about, honestly, is just one piece of a 1,000page bill which is going to grow the American Economy. And, what we are seeing is that american corporations and businesses are not competitive in the Global Economy because we have the highest tax rate in the industrialized world. All we did is adopt ideals that people like barack obama and other democrats have proposed when it comes to the business tax rates. And should try to get our businesses more competitive, to increase takehome pay and grow the number of Jobs Available to working class families. I dont think they proposed that provision. Meanwhile, the democrats are warning this is going the trig ear mandatory cut in many government programs, including a 25 billion cut in medicare. Leader pelosi has written a letter. To the senate and house lead nrs the Republican Party saying given the lack of bipartisanship to date and your effort to provide massive tax cuts to the wealthy at the expense of the middle class while adding 1. 5 trillion to the deficit, it will be your responsibility to deal with the con consequences. Shes essentially saying, you wont get help to get the vote. So basically, 25 billion in medicare cuts are coming. Can you prevent the cuts on your own . Thats just a false statement. We dont touch medicare at all. Any of the entitlement programs in the bill. So for ms. Pelosi to make that assertion is it mandates a 25 billion cut in medicare unless you have the votes to waive it. Do you have the votes to waive it . We will deal with that later this week. I believe well protect medicare. If ms. Pelosi and her party will join us, that will be a done deal. The democrats say they wont join. That leads to the question about senator Susan Collins. This was one of her conditions for passing the bill. As well as passing the Alexander Murray bill to stabilize the Health Insurance markets. Do you have her vote . Even if those provisions are not guaranteed . Senator collins has been very constructive throughout this process. Shes vastly improved the bill. By protecting taxpayers in the states. With their state and local tax deduction, a 10,000 cap which benefits everybody. Shes been a champion of trying to stabilize the Affordable Care markets and bring premiums down. Well all join her in those efforts. To bring those premiums down and stabilize the the market. We will, not trigger a cut in medicare. Well deal with that this week. And, again, i invite our democratic friends to join us in protecting medicare. It looks like the democrats wont be there on the tax bill. Back in 2010, when republicans did not vote along with obamacare. You warned the democrats against passing obamacare on a party line vote. Lets take a look. If they try to jam it through, as they have so far, with strictly along partisan lines, then i think november 2010 will be a very good month for us. I think well gain a lot more seats. Are you concerned that history might repeat itself in 2018 . We did pick up seven seats, as i recall in 2010 following the jamming through of obamacare. This was done through the regular legislative process. Markup in the finance committee and on the floor of the United States senate. As i said, our democratic colleagues had every chance to participate and simply refused. Its not to late for them to join us in passing this massive tax cut and tax reform bill that will help awaken the Sleeping Giant of the American Economy. They can do that on tuesday. I hope some of them will. It doesnt appear any of them will. Theyre banking on the fact that they think this will help them in 2018. Looking to the results on tuesday out of alabama. Where roy moore lost. You were not a fan of roy moore in that campaign. Do you think the gop dodged a bullet with that loss . Well, i think the explanation for alabama was we had a flawed candidate who won the republican primary and who couldnt win the general election. Thats not a new lesson. Its an old lesson remembered or demonstrated once again. So, what we need to do is, my party needs to do is make sure we nominate electable candidates. Good candidates, who can win general elections. I dont think the lesson of alabama is any more complex than that. Flawed candidate. Couldnt win the general election. Does that mean steve bannon has to back off . Mr. Bannon can do whatever he sees fit. Its a free country. I dont think his track record particularly now in losing alabama, one of the reddest states in the country, particularly commes m for his expertise. One of the other x factors is the russia investigation. Led by special counsel robert mueller. You have been active on twitter over the weekend responding to the former attorney general. Eric holder. In one of your tweets, you said that mueller needs to clean house of partisans. And then you were asked in another tweet, will you accept the findings as legitimate . By greg sargent of the washington post. You say that makes sense to know wait and see what they are first. That sounds like youre saying youre going to believe that muellers conclusions are legitimate only if you like them. No, thats not true. I have a lot of admiration and respect for director mueller. I would think he would want to eliminate challenges to the integrity of his investigation by eliminating agents who have taken positions in text message or political activity those people have been taken off the investigation. So i think he should want to do that. Because not only is an objective investigation and Justice Needs to be done. The appearance of Justice Needs to be done. I think these conflicts of interest jeopardize this investigation. The fbi agents have been taking off the investigation. As soon as special counsel mueller found out about them. And i commend him for that. He should. But there are others who he needs to make sure he vets that team. There are plenty of fbi agents and prosecutors who have not been politically involved on behalf of democrats or overtly critical of the president that can serve in this important investigation. I have confidence in director mueller. I would think he would be concerned about the appearance of conflicts of interests that would undermine the integrity of the investigation. It appears some of the president s allies in the congress are starting to lay the groundwork to fire robert mueller. What would that mean if the president fires the special counsel . I belief the president s own lawyer says that wont happen. I think that would be a mistake myself. Senator cornyn, thank you for your time. Thank you. Now to senator chris van hollen. Of maryland. Senator van hollen, let me pick up where senator cornyn left off. Senator cornyn says he still has confidence in director mueller. He says director should take further steps to clean house. I think republicans should end their concerted effort to undermine the credibility of the mueller investigation. You have somebody who by all accounts is an independent person. Somebody with lots of integrity. You see a concerted effort out of the white house to undermine the investigation. I really hope our republican colleagues will not join in subverting that process and trying to end this investigation. The question is, what are they afraid of . What is the white house afraid of . Lets let them finish the job and get the facts. Why isnt it a problem, if several members of muellers team have given contributions solely to democrats if they seem to have Text Messages or other information in their past which suggests that there may be a political bias there . Well, because mueller has already taken actions with respect to those individuals. Beyond that, you will find that there are many contributions made by folks like fbi director. To President Trump or republicans. And the reality is that people in these jobs have integrity. Theyre under the leadership of mueller, who is known for being a straight shooter. Hell do a job. Hell get to the facts. And i strongly believe people will have confidence in his judgment. Do you take the president s team at their word where they say right now that firing special counsel mueller is not on the table . I hope that is not the case. Lets move on. You heard senator cornyn inviting democrats to the table. For what he says is a big boon to the middle class. Your response . This is a total betrayal. Of President Trumps economic populist message. On the campaign trail. Its a huge giveaway to big corporations. Millions of middle class taxpayers will see taxes go up. Though republicans promise that would not happen. Millionaires will get an average annual tax break of 35,000 a year. And the big winners are those corporations. I think many people havent focused on the fact that 35 of the shareholders of those corporations are actually foreign stockholders, who, in the year 2019, are going to get a 31 billion tax break. So millions of american taxpayers handing over money to foreign stockholders. It doesnt sound like America First to me. It doesnt sound like the middle class first. You heard the senators response. The provision that caught your eye earlier. A special carveout for real estate llcs. It could mean tens of millions of dollars to President Trump and other republicans. Do you have any idea how that got in . Any chance it could be taken out . I dont know. What we do know is theyre behind closed doors. A whole army of lobbyists surround them. The longer theyre in there, the more you see special interest provisions. Which, as you indicate, would be a windfall to donald trump based on everything we know. Of course he hasnt released his tax returns. It reminds me of the fact that during the campaign, the one issue donald trump used as exhibit a for why this tax code was broken was the carried interest loophole for Hedge Fund Managers. He said during the campaign that Hedge Fund Managers are getting away with murder. You heard senator cornyn. They have a 1,000page bill. Nowhere in it do they get rid of the one tax giveaway special break that donald trump focused on most during the campaign. That is why this is a total betrayal of that economic populist message. People are catching on. Thats why its so unpopular. You heard senator cornyns response to the possibility that medicare cuts would be triggered by the bill. He invited democrats to prevent those. He expects democrats to come on board. Will democrats allow 25 billion in medicare cuts to take effect . You wont vote for the waiver . No, democrats are not going to allow those cuts to go in place. Its a fact that when republicans voted for the tax bill that increases the debt by 1. 5 trillion in doing so they automatically triggered this provision that would cut medicare by 25 billion. Now we hope theyll join us in turning it off. But if you look toward next year, you have a lot of republicans that used to care about the debt. I used to be the senior democrat on the budget committee. Paul ryan talked always about the dangers of debt. We actually agreed on that issue. Now they have blown a big hole in the debt. And if you look at their budget, its right the there, their plan for dealing with that is to cut medicare by 500 billion and medicaid by over 1 trillion. Its right there in the republican budget. This is step two of their plan. Because they just increased our debt by over 1 trillion. House leader pelosi in the letter i showed suggested democrats will not go along with the waiver. Youre taking a different position . When it comes to protecting medicare, democrats have always been front and center. Doug jones talked about that. In his alabama race. There are many other provisions republicans may try to get into the bills. The democrats will not support. We need to make sure that were investing in our kids education and infrastructure. As well as investing in our military strength. And so there are a whole lot of issues with respect to the budget bill coming down to the wire here. Youre heading up the democrats bump to take back the house in 2018. You got the unexpected win in alabama. Is that really a model for the year ahead . Or is roy moore just such a flawed candidate it doesnt tell you much about what will happen in 2018 . No, i think it tells you quite a bit, if you take what happened in alabama combined with what happened last month in virginia and other races. You find a couple of things. One, a hugely energized grass roots democratic base. Plus, and very importantly, independent voters voting for the democrat candidate. And a lot of moderate republicans crossing over in alabama and other places. And i will tell you, this tax giveaway to big corporations that will be paid for by millions of middle class taxpayers is only going to further inflame the moderate republicans and bring more people over to democratic candidates. You have the civil war in these republican primaries. They flock toward donald trump in the primaries. I wont be a winning message for them in the general. Are you worried al frankens resignation put the minnesota seat at risk . No, we have a terrific candidate. As you know. The Lieutenant Governor will be appointed and going to run for that seat. Shell be a terrific member of the senate and a terrific candidate. Chris van hollen, thank you for your time. Thank you. When we come back, two of americas biggest economists debate the tax cuts. And later, all the weeks politics on our roundtable. That cough doesnt sound so good. Well i think you sound great. Move over. Easy booger man. Take mucinex dm. Itll take care of your cough. Fine ill text you in 4 hours when your cough returns. One pill lasts 12 hours, so. Looks like im good all night. Ah david, please, listen. Still not coughing. Not fair you guys waffles are my favorite ah why take 4hour cough medicine . Just one mucinex lasts 12 hours. Start the relief. Ditch the misery. Lets end this. [ click ] [ keyboard clacking ] [ clacking continues ] good questions lead to good answers. Our advisors can help you find both. Talk to one today and see why were bullish on the future. Yours. Talk to one today and see why were bullish on the future. But when we brought our daughter home, that was it. Now i have nicoderm cq. The nicoderm cq patch with unique extended release Technology Helps prevent your urge to smoke all day. Its the best thing that ever happened to me. Every great why needs a great how. What we do every night is like something out of a strange dream. Except that the next morning. It all makes sense. Fedex powers Global Commerce with vast, farreaching networks. Deep knowledge of industries. And, yes. Maybe a little magic. Catch this week online all week. At abcnews. Com. On facebook. And twitter. What are the ingredients of a life well lived . Is it the places you go . The things you own . Or the people that fill it with meaning . For 150 years, generations of families have chosen pacific life for retirement and Life Insurance solutions. Protecting whats most important to you. Thats the power of pacific. Ask a Financial Advisor about pacific life. Ugh man, my sinuses. Its like my heads in a fog. I mean, could you be any more dramatic . Ive had it. Im taking mucinex sinusmax. Eh, that stuffs all the same. This is different. It fights pressure, pain, and congestion. Athank you. Those are my 3 best qualities. Get the straps. Carl . You know that i get carsick carl mucinex sinusmax. With a tripleaction formula that fights pain, congestion, pressure. Start the relief. Ditch the misery. Lets end this. We cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. Pensions and retirement accounts are soaring as the tock market hits 85 new record highs since the election. How are we doing . Are we doing okay . Not bad, right . Translator look at the markets. How they have grown. This attests to the trust the Investors Show in the economy. They have trust in what President Trump is doing in this particular field. An endorsement of President Trumps economy from president Vladimir Putin of russia. Well talk about the economy right now. With two of americas prominent economists. Paul krugman. Nobel prize Winning Economist and a columnist for the New York Times and a chair at City University of new york. And glenn hubbard. Dean of the columbia business school. Chair of the council of economic advisers under george bush. Donald trumps tweet, tax cuts will increase investment in the American Economy and in u. S. Workers. Your response . Lots of people. Basically all serious studies say, oh, not so much. There will be maybe a little boost. Not so much. We had the university of chicago surveyed 42 economists. From all political persuasions. Only one thought it would have a significant effect. On economic growth. I have been looking at, what do the markets think . We have a chart here. If you can show it. Never mind the stock market. If youre going to cut taxes on corporations, you would expect the stocks to go up. A better judge would be look at the dollar. If this bill does what it says it will do, scads of money pour in. Corporations will bring money back home, invest it here. All of that should lead to a surge in the dollar. The dollar has none nothing. The dollar rose when trump was elected. Because they thought people thought the infrastructure plan was going to happen. Then it went back down again. Its actually lower than it was on election day. What the markets are saying is this is a big nothing burger. Not enough to move the important asset values. It doesnt look like much of anything. How much difference can a tax cut make when the economy seems to be burning on all cylinders . Well, i think it will do two big things. One in the short run, it will provide boost to demand. I think the fed would look forward to that. In the longer run, the issue is on the supply side. The tax bill could probably raise gdp by about 3 in the long run. Thats not the beginning of a new era. It is certainly very, very positive for the economy. Economists have long campaigned on tax reform as the biggest single policy weapon. Is this tax reform . I think it is. Youre cutting business tax rates. The core of any tax reform. Youre broadening the base. Its not really. The base broadening is its raising taxes on the individual. It raises taxes on individuals in the long run through backhanded things. After 2025 . Thats right. Theres some sweeteners. Some loss leaders that go away. Then, what you have is, individuals are going to lose our Health Care Expenditures are supposed to be cut. Thats a big part, too. The 3 number thats a thats a complete outlier. Very few people who have studied this stuff think thats right. And even that doesnt take account, i was interested to see van hollen bring this up, how much in gdp goes to foreigners. Because a lot of the money is expected to come from overseas. Theyre not going to bring us that money for free. Theyll take retained earnings abroad. We work out what this is worth for the u. S. Economy. Even liberals think, i dont know. Its not worth very much. Is it worth 1. 5 trillion in debt . Actually, it is. I think the 3 number is well within the middle of what economists have been saying for years. The real question is, do we want a progrowth tax bill . With the recent piece by martin feldstein. The deficit effect of this is more than offset by the impact in growth. There will be impact on health care. One of the things included with this is the repeal of the obamacare mandate. We talked to the senators about other provisions. It look like theyll not necessarily be passed coming out of this tax bill. The Congressional Budget Office says 13 Million People lose Health Insurance. Because of the elimination of the individual mandate. Republicans want you to believe that is not going to happen. But if it doesnt happen, their numbers dont add up. Their bill counts on the savings that comes from 5 Million People losing medicaid and another 5 million dropping off the obamacaresubsidized exchanges. This is tax cuts for corporations paid for by taking away health care from people raising taxes on individuals. Is this something that should be a priority . Is this something that makes sense . And we havent gone through the passthrough business thing. The worst measure in any tax bill in u. S. History. On the health care piece, i think we need a more serious discussion of health care reform. I dont think its about the individual mandate as much as it is, what do we do to help lowincome people get Health Insurance . How do we finance that . Its a bigger discussion that has to happen. I agree thats very, very important. Lets talk about the passthrough here. We talked about that a little bit with senator cornyn and senator van hollen. This seems to be similar to something that happened in the state of kansas. Giving an incentive to people to come off salaried work and create businesses so they get a tax cut. Its a full employment measure for accountants and lawyers. I dont think you can call this a tax cut for corporations. Corporations are shareholders. Workers supplier. Theyre all people. And also shareholders. Shareholders are people, too. When you get to the passthroughs, more than half of americans who work in business work in noncorporate business. You want some leveling of the playing field. Now, it is complicated. Its very hard to do this. Its not tax reform or simplification is it . Its not simplification. I think it is tax reform. It is going to be complicated. The rules are designed to police behavior. I expect paul and i are policed out of it. Were textbook authors. This is unleveling the playing field. Right now, anybody that wants to turn themselves into a C Corporation and pay taxes can do that. What this is doing is it is tremendously privileging people who own businesses of a certain kind. And its you know who are really basically just workers. But happen to have the right kind of business that earns enough money. Its a crazy thing. Its creating a nightmare of loopholes. Possible exploitable things. Possible ways in which certain people. Theres a specific pro vision that says architects and engineers get a tax break other Service Providers dont get. So this is insane tax policy. Not even architects of the economy. Bottom line, is this sustainable . Will we be back a year or two from now with a major fix of this bill . It is sustainable. As good tax policy. We needed a more competitive tax policy on the corporate side. But we will be back. Theres much more the american tax code. And frankly, the budget needs to do. I think this will be a wave of outrageous tax avoidance. There will be mass demands people do something. This is nightmare bill. Well find out. Thank you both. Roundtable standing by. Well be right back. Roundtable standing by. Well be right back. What we do every night is like something out of a strange dream. Except that the next morning. It all makes sense. Fedex powers Global Commerce with vast, farreaching networks. Deep knowledge of industries. And, yes. Maybe a little magic. 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That have upset me. That have affected me deeply and emotionally, that has affected my community and my people. Omarosa out at the white house. Will she be the first of many more to come . Well be looking for her book, i guess, as well. Were going to talk now on the roundtable. Chief lit call analyst matthew dowd. Our senior congressional correspondent, mary bruce. Julie pace, the Washington Bureau chief for the associated press. Sara fagen served as Political Affairs director in the Bush White House and now a cnbc contributor. And patrick gaspard, open Society Foundations income president and Obama White HousePolitical Affairs director. Matt. A chart. Polling averages for major legislation over the last generation. You look back. Keep scrolling and scrolling and scrolling down. You get to the gop tax bill. 3 right new. Bottomed out only by the Gop Health Care bill. That would suggest democratic hope. President trumps Approval Rating ticking up to 41 . Republicans coming home excited. By the idea of tax cuts. A year from now, plus or minus for the gop . Minus. Big minus. You look at the polling of this. I think whats happened is the American Public has figured out this tax bill is not tax simplification. Its not fundamentally tax reform. Its not fundamentally helping the middle class or working class of the country. When you look at this as a dynamic, politically, you have a very unpopular president. At the lowest any president has been at this point in his term, pushing a very unpopular bill through a very unpopular congress. That is not a recipe for skresz success in a midterm. I dont agree at all with that analysis. Some of the numbers about the gop tax bill. There is a problem in the party. The party is not popular. When you test the individual provisions that are about to pass, they are quite popular. It is simplification. It will grow the economy. Youre going have a significant infusion of capital which will lead to more workers and higher wages. That will help. The question is, is it enough . And will it happen quickly muff . And, where matt and i do agree is, i think even with this tax bill, republicans are in for a very tough 2018. That is the question. A tough environment, patrick, already the Economic Impact wont be felt right away. Thats true. Its not altogether clear what the republicans are trying to sell for this tax bill. Ronald reagan could point to a steep recession when he passed his tax cuts and george bush could point to a Budget Surplus that indicated there would not be a strain on deficits. Right now, if you are a republican who voted for donald trump and you see the provision the bizarre llc provision put into this bill, you recognize this is going to hurt schools, hurt students. Its not clear how this benefits you. Mary, it became clear in the final days and hours that republicans just decided that they had to fall in line and get this pazed. Not only did senator Susan Collins come on board. Senator corker, who said there was no way he would vote for a bill that increased a deficit, now on board. Never ever ever would he sign on to the bill that does what this does. He said two weeks ago hes a deficit dinosaur. His words. Hes one of the holdouts in the party. Hes come around. He says because when he looks at the big picture, he realizes americans are better off with this bill than without it. To get at this, the broader conversation who ultimately wins here. Look, republicans that i have talked to are making the argument of trust us. They insist americans will see the results here. That it will pay off for them ultimately. But it is a big gamble given how unpopular the bill is. And how its not clear if it will do what it claims it will do for the middle class. Comes just in time for President Trump. It does. Hes at the end of the year looking at not having a major legislation. The first year of office is when youre supposed to have the most political pull. Republicans have gone out on the limb in terms of hat they have promised people will see. Trump talk about the bill in grand, historic terms. He talks about middle class families seeing a ton of money ending back up in their pockets. Well see a little bit next year of the impact of this. This will be a longterm trend that could be a problem for republicans. Based on the way theyve sold it. Matt, i have to say, this still amazes me. This is on the verge of passing. The president will sign it into law. Based on everything we know about the president s tax returns, this is almost as if it was written to give the president a benefit we still havent seen the tax returns. Yet that seems to have had no political impact at all. Besides the substantive problems with this, it doesnt simplify. It will primarily benefit the wealthy. I think there ought to be a provision. Taught about provisions. That if you either have to voluntarily say how youre going benefit from a bill like this, if youre voting on it or going to sign it. Or, there ought to be a provision in the bill that says, if youre going to benefit, you dont get the benefit from something you actually voted on. To me, the republicans have abdicated fiscal conservativism. They cant run on that anymore. After they pass a bill that raises the debt by 1. 5 trillion and doesnt help the middle class, they can no longer run as fiscal conservatives. It fails to give any credit for growth in the economy and higher tax revenues off a broader base and people making more money. I think thats just theres no evidence that that will happen. In history. None. Thats not true. Yeah, it is. There is evidence of it. There was no growth after the reagan 1986 tax bill. There was no growth. More people went to work. More people had higher wages. On the point of simplification, it will simplify it. When you double the standard deduction to almost 24,000 for married couples, that means 95 of the population is not going to itemize. That is simplification. There are some temporary gains here for workers. Temporary. Longterm permanent gains for corporations. I dont want to lose the point of georges question. About how this directly benefits donald trump. I had the the pleszing to serve overseas representing our country. And this is the kind of thing that we criticized autocrats for in other countries. No transparency here. The president is pushing a bill that he personally benefits from. We dont see his taxes. And we have this provision that seems to be a carveout for him, his soninlaw. And others who, happen to be sitting on top of llcs. That is not an insignificant thing here in the politics. Going into 2018. It is not a perfect bill. There are provisions that probably shouldnt be in there. However, when everybody gets tax cut, that includes the president and members of congress. And i think i suppose. But not everybody has real estate llcs. Thats how he gets most of his income. Not everybody has an estate over 10 million. These are fair points. People who make more money pay more taxes. When theres a tax cut, they themselves tend to get more relief. That wont be the case in states like california and new york. There are many people frustrated by that. The average person understands the wealthier you are in america, the lower percentage your tax payments are. Its not a perfect bill. It will help everyone. Perfect for donald trump. One of the big risks for the president. You look at that bill in a political context. This president made real promises to real americans who have been struggling economically for years. And i was always struck when i would go out on the campaign trail last year, how much people believed in what he was saying. I dont think you can discount the idea that if he, and other wealthy americans and corporations are seen as the big winners in this and average americans are getting 1500 or 2,000 in tax breaks, that is going to have a political impact. People in the country have looked to donald trump to solve a lot of their problems. I dont think that will be a takeaway there this bill. It needed to happen now because of tuesday. Republicans lose another seat. Doug jones probably coming in january 2nd. Or 3rd. 5149 changing the entire calculus next year. They had no choice but to do it now. Its why everyone is scrambling to digest a 1,000page bill. Whats interesting is, i cant remember the last time you had republicans, though it puts them at such a disadvantage, celebrating a loss like that. John cornyn didnt look that upset about it. Theyre not. Theyre not. Because they knew roy moore would be a headache for them on the hill and the campaign trail. They would rather deal with the democrat in that seat than that. They wnt cant be excited abt the turnout numbers among africanamerican, young people, women in alabama. If you look at what happened in alabama from the exit polling and election results. The number one indicator of how people voted. And why they turned out wasnt anything to do with roy moore and nothing to do with the sex allegations. It had everything to do with donald trump. That was the number one indicator of how somebody would vote and if they were enthusiastic. You move into a midterm election, after watching what happened in alabama and taking what happened in new jersey and virginia. What happens in this is the wave now that is coming, which i thought was about 7 or 8 feet is now an 11 or 12feet wave. You have democrats win the house of representatives. You have them pick up a seat or two. You now open the territory for places that people did not think they could win. Its tough for the house because of the way that the districts are so protected by gerrymandering. The 11point wave is the latest wall street journalnbc poll. An 11point advantage for democrats over republicans next year on the generic ballot. That will be catastrophic for house majorities and probably the senate. If it truly is 11 points at the end of the day. Since 1942, president s under 50 in their job Approval Rating typically lose about 3seats in the house. Thats the house majority. Theres no way President Trump will be above 50 by next year . No. I dont think the paradigm shift is enough. Just quickly. Lose afric those africanamerican numbers were impressive. In 2016, africanamerican turnout was down 4. 3 in the country. Over 5 in key battleground states. Africanamerican women have proven to be the bulwark. Of democracy in places like alabama and in virginia. That will only increase Going Forward. Not because of people like roy moore. But because americans saw what happened in charlottesville and arn american women in particular have responded. Theyre watching this me too movement. I want to bring the this to you, mary bruce. Seven members of congress and the senate resign or say theyre not running again over the last two weeks. And this wave is likely still at the beginning. And law makers that i have talked with, sources that i have talked with, they know there are more to come. You had three members quit in one week. Theyre braced for that. They realize what were seeing may be the tip of the iceberg. You have Congress Working very quickly to put in place legislative solutions. At least Going Forward to increase transparency and accountability to the reporting process here, which is very archaic. You have members of congress, just like journalists, trying to find more information here. Given the way the system is set up, theyre trying to figure out who received settlements. How much money was paid out on behalf of whom. Secret settlements paid for by taxpayers. Talk about outrageous right there. This could lead to a purge. Regard less of where democrats or republicans control congress, youre going to see the kind of turnover we havent seen in generations. This is affecting both sides of the aisle. This is not a republican or democratic problem. What is so stunning is the lack of transparency involving elected representatives using taxpayer dollars to make settlements. It has put the white house in an incredibly uncomfortable position. Because of, in part, the allegations against President Trump in the final weeks of the campaign. They have doubled down on the idea they dont believe the women. They came forward and were not telling the truth. Youll see those women being more prominent heading into an election year. Were seeing a greater number of women running for house and senate seats next year. And were seeing significant belief from republicans in the suburbs. This is the season for the star wars release, the suburbs are striking back. In virginia and alabama. This is a bipartisan virus. Its affected washington, d. C. The republicans may not have a roy moore problem. They have a donald trump problem in this regard. It puts Republican Leaders in a tricky position. Theyre taking seriously any allegations against members of congress, it forces them to have to answer the question about comparisons to the president. And when that question is asked, the story is well, thats a didnt story. We dont have jurisdiction. I thought the president s support for roy moore was really calculated. Roy moore, you know, he denied all his allegations. Donald trump denies all his allegations. By definition, donald trump had to support roy moore. Because if you deny your allegations, they must not be true. Is denial enough . Does that mean they go away . No, they dont. And they wont. They may not cause him any more of a headache than they have in terms of p. R. Until and in which the house of representatives turns. In which case, not only does he have investigations intense on russia. Hell have very aggressive investigations on sexual harassment. Were hearing democrats talk about impeachment. Democrats talk about resignation. Patrick, i remember back in 1998, republicans pushed the impeachment card as far as they could. They impeached president clinton in a year when president clinton and the democrats gained seats. Could they go too far here . Its politics. Its washington, d. C. Theres an instinct towards overreaching. It lets talk about where we are here. Its hard to go too far against somebody who releases a tweet against a standing u. S. Senator and basically tries to pardon my language, slutshame kirsten gillibrand, senator from new york state. Donald trump has stretched all the boundaries of what might be too far in politics. The base of the Democratic Party is not going to let them not impeach donald trump. 81 or 8 of democrat leaders at the last poll i saw said donald trump should be impeached. There is no way the democrats are not going to have to Start Holding impeachment hearings where the way the base feels. 70 of the public thinks the president should be investigated. I think theres a lot of smoke swirling around. Not a smoking gun at this point. There are finger prints. There are fingerprints. When you look at the information during the flynn plea deal. There was contact with russia. And that it was more than mike flynn who knew what was going to be in the calls with the ambassador. Every piece of reporting we and others have done points to a lot of focus on what happened with the comey firing. I think obstruction is where a lot of this investigation is going to go to. Its not surprising to me that 70 of people feel there is a worthwhile investigation to be done. Thats all we have time for today. Thank you all very much. Well be right back. That is coming up the this week. That is all for us today. Thanks for sharing part of your sunday with us. Check out world news tonight. Ill see you tomorrow on gma. Up next, a hoeltel evacuate and a man with a gun. Well have that next. Plus, a man to pay tribute this afternoon. You can see all the sunshine here in san francisco. Low 50s, mild, but still some gusty offshore winds in our upper elevatio