Incumbent: LDF with 91 seats
Majority mark: 71
Kerala voters have an unblemished record since the 1970s of ejecting incumbent governments. If the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF wins this time it will be a first after a very long time.
It will be seen as Vijayan’s win and will strengthen his position in the party. Voters have been impressed by his handling of Covid-19 and also the 2018 Kerala floods. Some observers say this will be the first Kerala election that has been decided on performance.
The UDF, by contrast, went to the polls without naming a leader. Former chief minister Oommen Chandy was considered one potential. Also, former minister and former president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee V. M. Sudheeran was another potential leader. Congress MP Shashi Tharoor was reckoned to be an outside contender.