Recent hurricanes harvey, irma and maria killed over 200 people in the u. S. And the caribbean, and they caused nearly 1 trillion worth of damage. Donald trump, an outspoken Climate Change skeptic, visited the disaster area, and he continues to rule out that human activity could have caused the catastrophe. But now theres a field of science which, for the first time, is able to estimate whether a Natural Disaster was likely due to humancaused Climate Change or not. A young german physicist at Britains Oxford University is studying hurricane harvey. Similar studies on the floods in louisiana last year produced clear results. Friederike during those studies we discovered that Climate Change had, on average, doubled the probability of this torrential rain occurring. So it would be surprising if we got a totally different result in a neighboring state at the same time of year just 12 months later. Reporter so far the discussion about Natural Disasters and their possible link to Climate Change has been largely a political one. Its a highstakes debate, involving powerful industries on the one hand, and a risk to peoples lives on the other. Friederike in most cases its always been politicians who put forward answers in the debate. That was what motivated us to say, over the past five years, weve developed these methods that allow us to make a qualified assessment, and we need to publicize that. Reporter its a whole field known as attribution science. The data of recent extreme weather events is compared with longterm climate models. Last winter, for example, the arctic saw record temperatures. At the north pole, they even rose above freezing in december. Thats more than 20 degrees celsius above normal. Whats new about ottos work is that she can calculate how the weather would be in a World Without humaninduced Climate Change factors, like greenhouse gases. When she compared that model for the arctic with the latest data from the heatwave there, she was shocked by the results. Friederike if you look at extreme heatwaves in summer, they might be six degrees celsius above normal. But not 20 degrees. So in meteorological terms, it was a really, really extreme event. Reporter otto has built a Computer Network to process the huge volume of data her climate models involve. It allows her to calculate how much Climate Change has increased the probability of an extreme weather event, like here in the arctic. Friederike in this case, our results showed that without Climate Change, this kind of weather event would have been practically impossible. This was the greatest increase in probability that weve seen to date. On average, humaninduced Climate Change made it 300 times more probable. Reporter conversely, Friederike Otto and her team can also prove if a Natural Disaster was not a result of Climate Change. For the record floods in southern germany in 2013, for example, the climate data showed no significant deviation in expected rainfall. So there must have been other reasons for the floods. Buildings too close to rivers, perhaps. A lack of dredging, a lack of flood plains. In other words, failures at government level. But elsewhere in europe, Climate Change has led to Natural Disasters. The south of the continent has experienced repeated record heatwaves in the last few years. Attribution Scientists Say thats because the probability of extreme temperatures has multiplied, leading to more forest fires, water shortages, and drought. Worldwide, habitable zones are shrinking, which could have drastic knockon effects. Millions of people could potentially be forced from their homes. Friederike with all the heatwaves that weve studied on various continents, europe in summer is in fact one of the hotspots, if you like, for Climate Change. Not on the same level as the arctic, but nevertheless, its a place where you can see that Climate Change has significantly increased the probability of this kind of heatwave. Reporter the implications of this relatively new science could change our world. Three coastal communities in california have now filed a lawsuit against exxon mobil and other fossil fuel producers, saying that rising sea levels are linked to harmful emissions. And countries like the United States or germany might one day actually be called to account for failing to achieve their environmental goals, thereby promoting Climate Change all on the basis of evidence produced by attribution science. Host by 2040, experts expect renewables to be supplying huge amounts of energy. And the industry is also driving job growth. The sector already employs 9. 8 Million People 3. 6 million of them in china alone. Thats a 40 rise worldwide in the last five years. Global Energy Supplies already come from a range of sources. By 2040, power we harvest from sunlight is set to triple. Wind power will double. A coalition of 48 developing nations acutely affected by Climate Change have pledged to become 100 reliant on climatefriendly energy by 2050. Theres no question that Global Energy demand will rise. Its forecast to double by 2040 not least because many people are only now gaining access to energy for the first time, like in uganda. Reporter the sebunoly family make their way to their former home. They were forced to move away from here four years ago because their house was too close to the site of a new hydroelectric power plant. William it feels good to be back here in the mountains. This is where i was born. I was born here, and so were my mum and dad. We had all kinds of crops corn, cassava, coffee so we always had something to eat, and we had money. Reporter the family farmed three acres of land here at an altitude of 1500 meters. They can still use a small area of it, so they return regularly. Four other families were also forced to move to make way for the new power plant. The concrete channel where the lubilia river is to be redirected in the future is almost ready. Peter kimuli works as a project manager for a Danish Company called Frontier Energy. It specializes in developing Renewable Energy projects in africa. Peter the lubilia river will still be flowing in its natural course. Certainly, there will be a reduced flow in especially during the dry months. But during the wet months, it will be like normal, there will be almost no difference. Reporter the channel is two kilometers long. Whats decisive for producing power is the force with which the water drives the turbines. So from here, the water will pass through steel pipes, plunging 264 meters down the mountain. Peter the reason we need the concrete canal is to convey water out of the river to this point where we are, which is the forebay. What we are looking for is a net head between this point and the powerhouse where we generate all our electricity. Reporter the entire project is set to cost 16 million. Before the work even began, a Feasibility Study was carried out to show whether the location was suitable. That study alone cost 600,000. The United Nations Green Climate fund now provides money for these kinds of initiatives. In the past, it was always difficult to get funding for feasibility studies. Peter because of the risk. I mean, you have got to get a group of people or engineers that know what theyre doing and that are able to look at a site from the very beginning and assess what the likelihood of this project Going Forward is. That becomes very, very key. Reporter two turbines are due to arrive soon. The hydroelectric power plant is designed to produce over five megawatts of electricity when running at capacity thats enough for 37,500 households. The plant is supposed to provide electricity to this remote region on the border to the democratic republic of congo. But the local residents arent yet linked to the power grid. So for the time being, they wont benefit. Peter what we tell them is the truth. We tell them that as a generator in uganda, we cannot provide electricity directly to them. But what we can do though is to, lets say, intercede with the necessary department or Government Authority to bring about the aspect of no electricity in a particular area, for them to focus on that. Thats what we do. Reporter this dough will be used to make a wedding cake. Its all part of a cookery course for local women. Then you can use your hands. So you need to wash your hands, remove all of it from your hands. Reporter 238 families have been affected by work on the power plant, so the company has to give back to the community in other ways. Biira rita is in charge of the course. She has also set up lessons in beekeeping and arable farming. Biira if you give them a handson Training Like baking, where they produce a product and sell it off, they could be able to support themselves with the basics. They dont have to ask the men for everything. Reporter back to the sebunoly family for the past eight months, theyve been living in their new home on the plains, 15 kilometers from their old one. The first time i came here, i was very happy with our new home. But gradually we realized that our new life was very hard. We hardly had anything to eat, even though we had a nice home. Reporter from january to june this year, there was a drought. That meant the family was unable to harvest anything. The house only came with a small plot of land, and the banana plants are still too young to bear fruit. If they didnt have the remainder of their farmland up in the mountains, the family would be even worse off. Once a week, employees from Frontier Energy visit them. Four of the children are no longer going to school, because the family cant afford to pay the fees. Peter we will definitely look into the whole issue of the land being far, and just review that with them. Well just go back and look at what led them to choose that place over, lets say, one that is near, and then we will find some way of bringing to them a piece of land that is closer to them. Reporter the father and one of the sons are currently working as day laborers to help the family scrape by. The Hydroelectric Power Company still has their work cut out for them. Host our kids4climate have plenty to do, too. Jana, ludwig and anna are all committed to protecting the environment and slowing the pace of Climate Change. Reporter 11yearold jana reiter is organizing a Clothes Swap Party at her school. Its the second time shes done it. Jana because its important that we all do something to reduce the level of consumerism that we take a stand against so much new stuff being bought. If you buy less because you swap more, theres less need to grow so much cotton, which in turn means that fewer pesticides are released into the environment. Reporter Environmental Protection is important in lessons, too. Jana believes it will be one of the biggest issues for her generation. Jana if you are many, you can bring about real changes. And we have to tell the adults what to do because this is our future and at some point they wont be alive anymore. Then well be the adults, so we have to do something for our that really stayed with me, because its so important. Its about our future. Reporter 15yearold ludwig essig lives in a small town in southwest germany, where hes surrounded by nature. Ludwig and his team set up protest rallies seeking to persuade politicians to do more to protect the environment. Ludwig it would be even more fun if theyd actually listen to our arguments and responded. But all in all of course, its fun for the team to be out there getting involved in politics. Anna 20 years ago, for example, there werent any marbled fritillary butterflies here. Now i see them all the time in the summer. So its clear that Climate Change is having an effect. Reporter anna uploads her pictures to an online database. Its a place for people to document the flora and fauna in their state. Shes already uploaded about 700 entries. Each discovery is flagged on the map. Anna climate protection is fun, because it gives me something in return. I feel like im doing something worthwhile with my time. I really enjoy it. Host doctors in new delhi have declared a Public Health emergency. The problem . Poor air quality. And its not the first time. Cold air forces the smog down into the city, so pollution levels are particularly bad in winter. The air is so toxic right now that most schools have been closed. The Indian Government is enforcing driving restrictions to try to get the situation back under control. In 2014, the World Health Organization named the city the worlds most heavily polluted capital. Reporter every year, over a Million People die prematurely in india because of toxic particles in the air thats according to a u. N. Study. In new delhi, theres no escaping the pollution. Jyotsna it started when i coughed a lot. I used to cough in the morning. I used to cough at night. I used to cough continuously. And my mother and father used to wake up with me at night, trying to help me prevent the coughing, but nothing really helped. Reporter Jyotsna Pandit is 17 years old. Shes very concerned about the air pollution in her home city. Jyotsna so finally we went to the doctor and he told us that i have this condition, its an allergy, which is aggravated by dust and other particulate pollutants in the air. Reporter car sales across india reached record levels this past year. The capital alone has 10 million registered vehicles. Many have diesel engines, which are particularly toxic. Last year, emissions in new delhi were nearly 30 times higher than World Health Organization limits. Indias former environment minister says for years, the governments main focus has been on Economic Growth whatever the cost. Jairam ultimately, you know, people want jobs, people want projects, people want factories. Those are the visible signs of progress, right . Pollution is seen to be, ok, we cough a little, but thats something that we need to do, or we have to do in order to industrialize and urbanize. But i think as Public Awareness increases, as civic movements gather apace, i think a lot of governments will have to be sensitive to these issues. Reporter citizens initiatives like help delhi breath are upping the pressure. They want the government to tackle the problem. After ratifying the Paris Climate Accord last year, the Indian Government is taking some steps. Its drawn up plans to overhaul or shut down some of the countrys coalfired power plants. The Agricultural Sector is also coming under pressure. Every year, farmers around the capital burn off the stubble left from harvesting rice to make space for the winter crop of wheat. The thick plumes of smoke waft into the city. That alone accounts for one quarter of delhis air pollution. Surinder panjola has been farming his fields in the district of patiala for 15 years. But these days, he does things differently. Surinder we used to burn the stubble every year, but it was bad for the environment. Now the government has restricted this practice, so some of us are seeking a solution. We want to protect the environment. Reporter his solution is to use a mulcher and a rotavator, which he bought together with another farmer to cut down the straw left after harvesting. Then he can just leave it lying in the field. That helps protect the winter seed, and eventually it decomposes. But many farmers are still burning their fields, as the alternative involves buying equipment, which few can afford. The government now offers subsidies for machines that can help keep farmers from burning their fields. Local ngos are seeking to persuade the farmers to sign up, but not everyones convinced. Pargat it takes ages to apply for the subsidies, and even then there are no guarantees youll get the money. Harminder theres a lack of awareness. We have to work hard to persuade farmers of the advantages. Thats the biggest challenge we have trying to point out that its for their benefit. Reporter progress is being made, but its slow. India has set some ambitious goals. By 2030, all public transport is to supposed to be fully electric, along with many private passenger vehicles. The government is also looking to promote Renewable Energies to meet the countrys huge power needs. Jairam Nuclear Costs are going up, coal costs are going up, but solar costs are plummeting, and i think that works to our advantage. That gets reflected in this commitment that we have made that by 2030 we will have 40 of our electricity from nonfossil fuels. I dont think thats an unreasonable target, because already we are knocking on 30 . Reporter but Jyotsna Pandit feels 2030 is too long to wait. Shes decided to start protecting the environment herself. Jyotsna i have a firsthand experience of what children go through when theyre subjected to dust particles. Why dont i take an initiative to do something for the environment . Reporter together with two friends, shes developed an air filter. They entered a competition organized by the u. N. In tandem with Indian Industry and schools, and won an award for their invention. Jyotsna when dust collects inside the filter bags, it forms a thick barrier, which further improves the efficiency of the filtration process. I believe that its up to the Younger Generation to think about the future, think about what were going to do when all the resources are being depleted. Lets work together. Its about humanity, its about conserving the earth. Around the world. Today, we head to bosniaherzegovina. Nina hello to everyone. My name is nina petkovic. Im 17, and im from mostar, bosniaherzegowina. I like adeles dont you remember . , because its my vote song and the Favorite Song of my friends. I like pop and i really like everything about music. My mother is a master of agronomy. She works in the education for farmers and i was sometime in her educations. It was so, so beautiful because it was a big success and i was very happy because when i see my mom while she is working, its a special feeling, really. And my grandma is a nurse. I want to study mechanical engineering. Its not similar with either medicine or agronomy. This building here was destroyed in the civil war in 1992. We have to look ahead and try to turn the negative things into positive ones. The Youth Council of the city of mostar is a nonprofit and nonproperly functioning city council involving all ethnic groupings. But we have shown that we young people have many ideas and can work together. And its very important for us to promote culture and ecology. Wigglw e wiggle wiggle host dont forget to check out our facebook page, dw global society. There, youll find moving and Inspiring Stories from around the world. Follow us on dw global society. Thats all we have time for today. Thanks for joining us. And we love hearing from you. Write to us at global3000 dw. Com or on facebook. See you next time. Take care. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] [female voice over] this program is made possible in part by the town of marion, home of the Wayne Henderson school of appalachian arts, celebrating 21 years as a certified virginia main street community. The historic General Francis Marion Hotel and the speak easy restaurant and lounge, providing accommodations and casual fine dining in downtown marion, virginia. The bank of marion. Technology powered, service driven. Wbrf 98. 1 fm. And bryant label, a proud supporter of our regions musical heritage. cherokee shuffle by gerald anderson
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